Confirmed with Link: Norris signs [8 years, 7.95M AAV]

[SENStastic]

Jack Hughes got 8x8 and got it at the start of his third season. I do not see why Stutzle can't sign in a similar scenario.

Because Hughes signed it way too early, a year before he needed to while having an underwhelming season. Stutzle won't be that stupid, and he has much better line mates now. He's gonna get paid, the question is whether it's closer to 9m or 10m now. Hughes contract is 2m too low.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Because Hughes signed it way too early, a year before he needed to while having an underwhelming season. Stutzle won't be that stupid, and he has much better line mates now. He's gonna get paid, the question is whether it's closer to 9m or 10m now. Hughes contract is 2m too low.

Right. Sens need to put the pressure on to get the contract done early as well. Sens will also use Hughes as a comparable saying he was a #1 ovr. Stutzle will try and get as much points as possible and push for 10. Sens will also argue Stutzle hasn't broken 60pts yet and only one season of ppg should not be enough for a double digit contract.

We really can't afford a 10M contract if we want to keep all of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Norris, Debrincat, Pinto, Batherson, and Sanderson long term.

 

[SENStastic]

Right. Sens need to put the pressure on to get the contract done early as well. Sens will also use Hughes as a comparable saying he was a #1 ovr. Stutzle will try and get as much points as possible and push for 10. Sens will also argue Stutzle hasn't broken 60pts yet and only one season of ppg should not be enough for a double digit contract.

We really can't afford a 10M contract if we want to keep all of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Norris, Debrincat, Pinto, Batherson, and Sanderson long term.

Agreed on all points. I doubt Stutzle gives in and signs an extension this summer though. If PD manages it, he wins GM of the year for me, but I'm not holding my breath on it.

 

[maclean]

Sounds like a lot but I made 25k last year so who am I to judge

He will be under a lot more of microscope though

 

[bicboi64]

This deal is fair. His production was fine, its been sustainable his whole career based off his shooting percentage.

In the odd and unlikely event Stu doesn't pan out, we have a legit young centremen who can score goals locked up for his prime.

Love this move.

 

[Slippy]

Stuzle? 8M
Debrincat? 8M
Sanderson? 8M

 

[Mingus Dew]

This deal is fair. His production was fine, its been sustainable his whole career based off his shooting percentage.

In the odd and unlikely event Stu doesn't pan out, we have a legit young centremen who can score goals locked up for his prime.

Love this move.

I'm fine with the deal but "his whole career" has been what 2 seasons?

He's got one season at 17.7% shooting and then another at 20.3% shooting. I don't think we can talk about sustainability when the sample size is 120 games.

When the season ended and he was on pace for 40+ he was guaranteed to get paid like this. It's just the reality of the market. But it's completely possible that he comes out next year and sees a shooting % valley that leads to like 23 goals or something. Volatility should be expected.

 

[bicboi64]

I'm fine with the deal but "his whole career" has been what 2 seasons?

He's got one season at 17.7% shooting and then another at 20.3% shooting. I don't think we can talk about sustainability when the sample size is 120 games.

When the season ended and he was on pace for 40+ he was guaranteed to get paid like this. It's just the reality of the market. But it's completely possible that he comes out next year and sees a shooting % valley that leads to like 23 goals or something. Volatility should be expected.

Sorry, meant to include his junior years as well

 

[Mingus Dew]

Sorry, meant to include his junior years as well

Yeah that's fair and expands the sample size.

Are these the right stats for his college career?

Would be 8.3% for 2017-2018 and then 14.5% in 2018-2019.

Edit: and looks like he shot about 19.4% with Belleville?

 

[JimmySpaetzle]

These deals always seem expensive at the time, and then end up being steals. Karlsson’s first deal off his Norris? Was big money and then ended up being a steal. Chabot’s current contract? Was big money at the time and now guys like Sergachev are being paid more. This’ll go the same route, especially with the cap going up

 

[Sens Vader]

He’s overpaid but I don’t care, Bath is underpaid.

7 mil average for the top line works

 

[Rodzilla]

Not mad cause I think its better to have all the boys together but expected 7. I really think Pinto will be a better player, I know its not popular around here and may age poorly but that’s what I think.

Norris is a very nice shooter, happy he stays, but I prefer a C who’s better at puck carrying/creativity and playmaking. That’s just my opinion.

Congrats to him tho!

 

[GCK]

This feels like when Hall/RNH/Eberle each signed for 6M long term which was 10% of the cap at the time.

Hope we have better results

 

[Larionov]

These deals always seem expensive at the time, and then end up being steals. Karlsson’s first deal off his Norris? Was big money and then ended up being a steal. Chabot’s current contract? Was big money at the time and now guys like Sergachev are being paid more. This’ll go the same route, especially with the cap going up

This is an underrated point. The players are currently paying back the pandemic losses, and will be for another two seasons or so. (This is what the players negotiated - they didn't want to get whacked with massive instant salary cuts via escrow in 2020-21 and 2021-22, so they negotiated with the owners to spread the pain out over a few years.) When that finally expires, the cap will take a fair size jump, maybe as much as 10% by 2025. It will just keep rising from there. Increase the cap by 10% - 15% and suddenly those deals all look a lot more palatable...

 

[IranCondraAffair]

If Chabot, Tkachuk, Stutzle, Debrincat, Norris, and Sanderson all end up around 8M by 2024-25 Batherson, Giroux, Forsberg, and a Zub extension would take us to around 66.5-67M.

That would leave us with 17M or so to sign Pinto, Formenton, Joseph, and 10 other players. That is going to be hard.

Best hope is Zub getting something closer to 4 than 5 and Sanderson getting a bridge. If we can then bridge Pinto as well (both won't have RFA rights coming off ELCs), it gets much more manageable.

Edit: Best case scenario would be something like 72M for everyone if we can drive some hard bargains and accept lesser term for Sanderson to drive down the "scary" price if he is as good as advertised. Pinto is such a huge wildcard.

 

[guyzeur]

I'm fine with the deal but "his whole career" has been what 2 seasons?

He's got one season at 17.7% shooting and then another at 20.3% shooting. I don't think we can talk about sustainability when the sample size is 120 games.

When the season ended and he was on pace for 40+ he was guaranteed to get paid like this. It's just the reality of the market. But it's completely possible that he comes out next year and sees a shooting % valley that leads to like 23 goals or something. Volatility should be expected.

I disagree about his shooting percentage. During his PP time he's aiming for the corner. It's either IN or not counted as a shot quite often.

If Chabot, Tkachuk, Stutzle, Debrincat, Norris, and Sanderson all end up around 8M by 2024-25 Batherson, Giroux, Forsberg, and a Zub extension would take us to around 66.5-67M.

That would leave us with 17M or so to sign Pinto, Formenton, Joseph, and 10 other players. That is going to be hard.

Best hope is Zub getting something closer to 4 than 5 and Sanderson getting a bridge. If we can then bridge Pinto as well (both won't have RFA rights coming off ELCs), it gets much more manageable.

Edit: Best case scenario would be something like 72M for everyone if we can drive some hard bargains and accept lesser term for Sanderson to drive down the "scary" price if he is as good as advertised. Pinto is such a huge wildcard.

I would hate giving Zub "only" 4M when he's worth 5M+ for our team

 

[Mingus Dew]

I disagree about his shooting percentage. During his PP time he's aiming for the corner. It's either IN or not counted as a shot quite often.

He is absolutely a talented goal scorer but the greatest goal scorer of our generation (all time?) has a career SH% of 13%.

I just think there's going to be peaks and valleys.

 

[2CHAINZ]

Mood

 

[Sun God Nika]

i think when you are asking if the contract is worth it you gotta ask yourself what is Josh Norris floor?

I think over 82 games while being on for half of the teams power play time Josh Norris can not be worse than 30G 25 Assists for 55 pts. if a centre who consistently got those totals hit the market with a premium on goals they likely score a 6.5M x 7 Year contract. Are we expecting Norris to hit his floor every year ? No. I do think it is an overpayment but by probably 500k-750K. I think Norris will be a consistent 35-40 goal scorer for us.

 

[Mingus Dew]

i think when you are asking if the contract is worth it you gotta ask yourself what is Josh Norris floor?

I think over 82 games while being on for half of the teams power play time Josh Norris can not be worse than 30G 25 Assists for 55 pts. if a centre who consistently got those totals hit the market with a premium on goals they likely score a 6.5M x 7 Year contract. Are we expecting Norris to hit his floor every year ? No. I do think it is an overpayment but by probably 500k-750K. I think Norris will be a consistent 35-40 goal scorer for us.

A 30 goal floor would be pretty ridiculous lol. If he pots 30 for the next 8 years straight then yeah this contract is good value.

 

[Sun God Nika]

A 30 goal floor would be pretty ridiculous lol. If he pots 30 for the next 8 years straight then yeah this contract is good value.

in the NHL right now 30 is the new 20 it feels like.

 

[Mingus Dew]

in the NHL right now 30 is the new 20 it feels like.

Gotta see if that continues. Goalies need to step their shit up.

 

[Sweatred]

Right. Sens need to put the pressure on to get the contract done early as well. Sens will also use Hughes as a comparable saying he was a #1 ovr. Stutzle will try and get as much points as possible and push for 10. Sens will also argue Stutzle hasn't broken 60pts yet and only one season of ppg should not be enough for a double digit contract.

We really can't afford a 10M contract if we want to keep all of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Norris, Debrincat, Pinto, Batherson, and Sanderson long term.

That’s why I think we should be prepared to recycle Chabot when he’s making $10 million for a great pick/prospect type package.

Brann runs PP1 and Sanderson plays 27 minutes a game with Lassi, JBD, Klevin etc filling out the roster.

 

[Sun God Nika]

That’s why I think we should be prepared to recycle Chabot when he’s making $10 million for a great pick/prospect type package.

Brann runs PP1 and Sanderson plays 27 minutes a game with Lassi, JBD, Klevin etc filling out the roster.

yeah.... no.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Gotta see if that continues. Goalies need to step their shit up.

Not the goalies. It's just that hooks, slashes, cross checks, and interference are actually being called now. NHL smartened up and realized that having guys like Crosby, Karlsson, McDavid on the IR in favour of plugs is bad for business.