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"Nobody is afraid of Bedard"....Bruce Boudreau

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WhiskeyYerTheDevils said:
The blackhawks have actually been a fair amount better this year vs his rookie season, which makes some of Bedard's struggles that much more confusing:

2.17 --> 2.72 GF/GP
16.6% --> 26.2% PP%
0.317 --> 0.358 pts%
42.3% --> 43.1% 5v5 xG%

They're only 1 regulation win shy of their total from last year, with 22 games left.

But despite the team's improvements, Bedard's numbers are down pretty much across the board.

74 --> 67 point pace
0.73 --> 0.60 primary p/gp
3.03 --> 2.32 shots per game

At 5v5:
0.90 --> 0.63 ixG/60
0.92 --> 0.55 g/60
1.96 --> 1.53 p/60
43.3% --> 41.7% xG%
+2.2 --> -2.1 rel xG%
91.9% --> 67.6% IPP%

The shooting numbers are probably the most alarming, but that last data point is maybe the most surprising. Last year he was involved in nearly 92% of 5v5 goals while he was on the ice. If he wasn't directly involved in the play, the hawks pretty much weren't scoring.

But not this year. His IPP% has plummeted to 67%. His on ice GF/60 is actually slightly higher than last year (even if his on ice xGF/60 has dropped). So they're scoring more goals, but Bedard's just not driving the boat like he was last year. So why is that?

The linemates excuse held a lot of water last year. It seemed like he was likely already a PPG+ player if he just had a bit more help.

Davidson went out and got him a bit more help. Teravainen is a legit top 6 forward, and Bertuzzi is a legit top 9 forward. And they added back a healthy Hall. Certainly not elite players, but it's more help than he had as a rookie, so most expected him to improve on his rookie season (myself included).

So why has the opposite happened?

If we take a look at Teravainen's season, we see that after struggling in the his first 30 games, he has been really good in his last 30.

13 points in first 30 games
33 points his last 30 games

What's notable is that Bedard was his most common linemate in the first half, but in the second half he's played with Dickinson, Foligno, Mikheyev, and Nazar. It's downright mind boggling that a player could have such better results with those guys than Connor Bedard.

Meanwhile, Bedard's 30 game scoring splits are pretty similar, despite playing primarily with TT, Hall, and Foligno in the first half, and then mostly Donato, Bertuzzi and Nazar in the second half.

24 points in first 30 games
25 points in last 30 games

These numbers, coupled with his offensive regression this year, makes me wonder if maybe the linemate factor isn't holding Bedard back as much as previously thought? Does he just need to be the guy on his line? Or maybe he just needs a true star running mate?

I think some of this fall off is a result of him trying to play better defensively. Last year, a lot of his offense was generated off the rush, where he'd cheat up ice to get free. This year, I've noticed that he's made a much more consistent effort to come back deeper in the d zone to defend down low, which obviously makes it harder to get odd man rushes. That helps to maybe explain why he's not involved in as much of his team's offense.

Unfortunately, while he's giving more effort down low, he's just not particularly good at defending. This tells me that he's best suited for wing, It's surprising that they haven't committed to that change yet.

Give him a solid play driving center and he's easily a 90-100 point guy IMO.
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If he needs another guy to be the guy then he's not the guy.
 
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Vegeta said:
This take will age like milk.

Bedard will be a 100 point guy at some point in this league.
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These are signs of a burn out and the NHL should be ashamed to put so much pressure on a young guys before they’re even able to show if they have the capacity to carry that weight.

He was told every single minute last year that he’ll have a great career etc… and so far its been mediocre… that sure as hell is screwing with his mind.

19 years old man… and hes gotta go through this…

Its crazy

ORRFForever said:
I am sure he will. Bedard needs a change of scenery - Chicago is a MESS!!!
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This must be a joke, specially after Chicago has been racking up the pts despite of him burning out?
 
GrumpyKoala said:
On one hand you guys spent the last 3 years telling us he gonna be generational and now the problem is that he got too much pressure...

Smh
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Im saying he wasnt made for it to begin with. Its alot easier if you actually have the talent and the skill to be that guy.

Crosby had it
Ovechkin had it
McDavid had it

Everone was gaslighting each other because of the impressive numbers he posted in juniors. But no one thought to take things into perspective and weight down the multiple factors that led him to be this dominant during the lockdowns
 
Based on the hype, I thought Bedard would be contending for the Art Ross by year three. Now I can see McDavid/Mack/Kuch/Drai contending and winning Rosses until ages 33 given the lack of breakout of truly superstar young talent in the league.
 
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ViD said:
I remember Ovechkin played with Zubrus and Chris Clark in his rookie year
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Yes and Bedard played with Foligno and Kurashev last year. Both who are absolute trash cans at this point

No one is comparing him with the greatest goal scorer ever
 
clydesdale line said:
Teravainen isn't going up against the top D pairs and the best defensive forwards every night. Bum slaying is a credit to him but it ain't telling the whole story.
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I'm not even comparing him to Bedard. I'm comparing him to himself from the last few years. He's having his best season in years, that doesn't really fit the narrative that Bedard can't score because of his teammates.

35 points how in his last 31 games. Only 1 point behind Bedard for the team scoring lead.

Donato is playing great too, 29 points in his last 31 games. Playing on such a talentless team certainly doesn't seem to be preventing those two from producing.

You can talk about matchups all you want, but great players are expected to be great in spite of the matchups. If RNH were outscoring McDavid, do you think calling out the quality of competition would make any sense?

The Hawks are a fair amount better this year yet his production is down nearly 10%, let's stop making excuses for the kid. He's gonna be a great player, but it'll take some time and patience.

CanadianHawks said:
There’s this thing called incompetent coaching
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Doesn't seem to be holding back TT and Donato.
 
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Boudreau is right.

And he’ll be right until Bedard proves him and those who agree with him wrong.

Just like the people who said ‘you cant win the cup with Ovechkin’ were provably correct… until he proved them incorrect.

And maybe Bedard never proves them wrong. Just like Boudreau never proved the people who said he couldnt get it done in the playoffs wrong.

Welcome to sports.
 
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CanadianHawks said:
There’s this thing called incompetent coaching
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Completely agree and that's what I've been saying too. It's absolutely ridiculous how they let the 19 year old do whatever he pleases out there. Meaning drag out his shifts and cheat for offense etc. At least it looks like they're letting him since there's been zero signs of holding him even a tiny bit accountable.

It absolutely sucks for the kid.

Which also makes the but he's playing with trash excuse so twisted that it hurts my brain. He's playing with NHL players. They don't drag out their shifts. They don't blow zone and cheat for offense. They don't lose their defensive assignments all the time. They can generally be trusted on the ice and they don't leak like no tomorrow. And even when they do they're ffs held accountable. Hate it with passion.

It almost feels like it all has to be coming from the top as no coaching staff trying to win games would let it slide. I mean orders to give him free pass in order to entertain the crowds. And that way lose games at the same time. Tanky tank tank. I could somehow understand it. As said sucks for the kid though.
 
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If you have to justify his "poor play" (he's really playing fine) because of his subpar line mates then he's currently not the star that was hyped. Look, I don't think anyone will admit that Bedard won't be a star player, it's will be beyond that.

Also, Rick Nash had 41 goals in his second year playing with David Vyborny and Trevor Letwoski the year before the 05 lockout. So it's not always a 1 for 1 thing, but superstar players tend to elevate the play of those around them, not suffer because of them. Crosby went into a great culture with the Pens, had Mario, LeClair, Gonchar, Rechhi, etc and he learned how to be a pro and then made the careers of Kunitz and Dupuis. Tavares did the same for Matt Moulson and PA Parenteau.

So it's a toss up. Bedard will be fine, Hawks have a poor culture and need to acquire some solid vets that can keep up with the play of the game and Bedard will grow into a star player. Just maybe not more than that.
 
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