Value of: Noah Hanifin

[Ledge And Dairy]

On top of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd? Chychrun was younger and signed to a much cheaper deal when he was traded last season. I don’t think there’s much chance Hanifin gets a bigger package in return.

Comparing Carolina's 1st to Ottawa's 12th OA pick is a pretty massive reach.

Not to mention there's no way Carolina would trade their 1st for Vejmelka

 

[rt]

Comparing Carolina's 1st to Ottawa's 12th OA pick is a pretty massive reach.

I didn’t do that.

Not to mention there's no way Carolina would trade their 1st for Vejmelka

I didn’t say they would.

 

[dixie]

Already has his place picked out in Boston for next year!

 

[deleted user]

He's the best asset the Flames have to be dealt. Hopefully they find a good fit for everyone involved. I definitely think he's Boston bound.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I didn’t do that.

I didn’t say they would.

You said you don't think there's much chance Hanifin gets a bigger package that Chychrun based on the other user saying to add Soderstrom. That implies that you think adding Soderstrom makes the trade similar or higher value than the Chychrun deal. Which it doesn't at all. Despite Carolina currently sitting at the 18th OA pick abd only 4 points up on Montreal's 12th OA pick it's highly unlikely that Carolina stays where they currently are in the standings. As they basically just had a bad western Canadian road trip. They probably don't catch the Rangers in 1st but its quite likely they finish 2nd or 3rd in the division and end up with a bottom 10 pick.

What Im trying to say is Soderstrom + even #22 OA doesn't = #12 from last years draft, probably not even #15. On top of that Chychrun got 2 2nds(one of them a conditional 1st too), whereas your proposal is a 2nd and a 3rd.

And this would all be under the impression that Carolina would willing trade their 1st for Vejmelka where they would in reality be hesitant to move their 2nd

 

[rt]

You said you don't think there's much chance Hanifin gets a bigger package that Chychrun based on the other user saying to add Soderstrom. That implies that you think adding Soderstrom makes the trade similar or higher value than the Chychrun deal. Which it doesn't at all.

You’re right. The Chychrun package exceeds this (with Soderstrom) by roughly one 2nd round pick in value. I’d be happy to bore you with my math, but I’ll save you the trouble unless you want to argue about it.

That said, I still think it’s closer to fair value without Soderstrom than with. Chychrun’s age and remaining years at a cheaper aav more than cover the delta, in my opinion.

And this would all be under the impression that Carolina would willing trade their 1st for Vejmelka where they would in reality be hesitant to move their 2nd

I never suggested Carolina would trade their 1st for Vejmelka, nor is that what I proposed. Not even close. Suggesting Vejmelka’s value, combined with Raanta’s negative value, certainly is approximate to the value of Carolina moving from 25 or so to 55 or so.

 

[Some Other Flame]

On top of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd? Chychrun was younger and signed to a much cheaper deal when he was traded last season. I don’t think there’s much chance Hanifin gets a bigger package in return.

Much lower 1st and Hanifin's getting extended for the entire 8 years, not the 3 years Chychrun had left on his deal. Chychrun is all of one year younger too.

As a pure rental, Hanifin should in theory easily return at a 1st + 2nd in terms of value. So adding just a 3rd for getting a re-signed Hanifin isn't enough. And I thought the Coyotes weren't all that keen on Söderström anyway

 

[rt]

Much lower 1st and Hanifin's getting extended for the entire 8 years, not the 3 years Chychrun had left on his deal. Chychrun is all of one year younger too.

As a pure rental, Hanifin should in theory easily return at a 1st + 2nd in terms of value. So adding just a 3rd for getting a re-signed Hanifin isn't enough. And I thought the Coyotes weren't all that keen on Söderström anyway

He’s a year younger and it was a year ago. That’s two years. And the 8 years it would take to get Hanifin signed is a bug not a feature. Anyone would rather him signed cheaper and shorter.

 

[Double Dion]

On top of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd? Chychrun was younger and signed to a much cheaper deal when he was traded last season. I don’t think there’s much chance Hanifin gets a bigger package in return.

Hanifin is a MUCH better defenseman than Chychrun. That said I do think a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is more than enough. I'd be happy with a 1st and 2nd honestly.

He’s a year younger and it was a year ago. That’s two years. And the 8 years it would take to get Hanifin signed is a bug not a feature. Anyone would rather him signed cheaper and shorter.

I wouldn't be scared of an 8 year deal with Hanifin at all. Lindholm is the one I'd avoid term with. Hanifin has gotten better every year and is such an elite skater he'll age well. He's also only 26. If I was a team acquiring him I'd want that term.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Hanifin is a MUCH better defenseman than Chychrun. That said I do think a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is more than enough. I'd be happy with a 1st and 2nd honestly.


I wouldn't be scared of an 8 year deal with Hanifin at all. Lindholm is the one I'd avoid term with. Hanifin has gotten better every year and is such an elite skater he'll age well. He's also only 26. If I was a team acquiring him I'd want that term.

No he's not. Chychrun is definitely better just not nearly as injury prone.

I agree there should be no fear in a long term deal on Lindholm though, it will age well

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

No he's not. Chychrun is definitely better just not nearly as injury prone.

I agree there should be no fear in a long term deal on Lindholm though, it will age well

lol no he’s not. Hanifin is getting the Dougie treatment in Calgary. He’s an outstanding player, arguably the best player on the team with Weegar, but for some reason our fan base has decided he’s meh.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

lol no he’s not. Hanifin is getting the Dougie treatment in Calgary. He’s an outstanding player, arguably the best player on the team with Weegar, but for some reason our fan base has decided he’s meh.

Oh come on man? You do realize I have been Hanifin's #1 supporter on here for years right?

But Chychrun is a top 25 defenseman in my books, ahead of Ras but behind Weegar. Hanifin is somewhere in the 25-35 range.

 

[Double Dion]

No he's not. Chychrun is definitely better just not nearly as injury prone.

I agree there should be no fear in a long term deal on Lindholm though, it will age well

He is MUCH better. Hanifin has been a top 20 defensive metrics player for 3 straight years. Top 5 in one of them and top 10 in another. Chychrun isn't even decent defensively. He's heavily sheltered in Ottawa even though they have no one to shelter him. Sanderson a 20 year old plays way harder minutes because Chychrun can't.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

He is MUCH better. Hanifin has been a top 20 defensive metrics player for 3 straight years. Top 5 in one of them and top 10 in another. Chychrun isn't even decent defensively. He's heavily sheltered in Ottawa even though they have no one to shelter him. Sanderson a 20 year old plays way harder minutes because Chychrun can't.

That's just not true at all. Chychrun is fine defensively and when he came over to Ottawa last year he lead the Sens in TOI% vs elite level competition. And offensively only Josi and Dougie have consistently bigger individual impacts over the last 3-4 seasons. Hanifin is a much more rounded player than Chychrun as he is a legitimate #2 but Chychrun is way better offensively and a legitimate #1 when healthy.

Hanifin's 5v5 ranking over the previous 3 years is all defensive RAPM:
20/21 - GA/60 = 52nd, SA/60 = 27th, FA/60 = 42nd, CA/60 = 28th, xGA/60 = 25th
21/22 - GA/60 = 80th, SA/60 = 46th, FA/60 = 54th, CA/60 = 29th, xGA/60 = 42nd
22/23 - GA/60 = 148th, SA/60 = 80th, FA/60 = 92nd, CA/60 = 76th, xGA/60 = 96th

Chychrun's 5v5 ranking over the previous 3 years in all defensive RAPM:
20/21 - GA/60 = 116th, SA/60 = 107th, FA/60 = 117th, CA/60 = 135th, xGA/60 = 108th
21/22 - GA/60 = 198th, SA/60 = 151st, FA/60 = 144th, CA/60 = 144th, xGA/60 = 91st
22/23 - GA/60 = 115th, SA/60 = 144th, FA/60 = 117th, CA/60 = 112th, xGA/60 = 158th

It's very important to remember that for at least 2 of those 3 seasons Hanifin played on a far better team than Chychrun as Arizona was deliberately tanking the last 2 seasons. I am not suggesting that Chychrun is better defensively than Hanifin but Chychrun is a very similar defenseman to Dougie Hamilton, one of the best defensemen for getting pucks on the net league wide and not a complete defensive liability

As for offensive impacts this is where Chychrun ranked in those 3 seasons (1st number is all strengths and 2nd number is 5v5 only)
20/21 - iSF/60 = 3rd and 8th, iFF/60 = 2nd and 3rd, iCF/60 = 4th and 5th, ixGF = 4th and 7th
21/22 - iSF/60 = 3rd and 3rd, iFF/60 = 2nd and 2nd, iCF/60 = 3rd and 2nd, ixGF = 8th and 20th
22/23 - iSF/60 = 7th and 13th, iFF/60 = 7th and 8th, iCF/60 = 7th and 15th, ixGF = 3rd and 20th

 

[Double Dion]

Oh come on man? You do realize I have been Hanifin's #1 supporter on here for years right?

But Chychrun is a top 25 defenseman in my books, ahead of Ras but behind Weegar. Hanifin is somewhere in the 25-35 range.

We don't see Chychrun the same at all. I see him as a guy well behind all 3 of those guys. His coaching staff is playing him basically how Barrie and DeAngelo are deployed. He can't defend at all. A 20 year old sees more tough minutes.

 

[Double Dion]

That's just not true at all. Chychrun is fine defensively and when he came over to Ottawa last year he lead the Sens in TOI% vs elite level competition. And offensively only Josi and Dougie have consistently bigger individual impacts over the last 3-4 seasons. Hanifin is a much more rounded player than Chychrun as he is a legitimate #2 but Chychrun is way better offensively and a legitimate #1 when healthy.

Hanifin's 5v5 ranking over the previous 3 years is all defensive RAPM:
20/21 - GA/60 = 52nd, SA/60 = 27th, FA/60 = 42nd, CA/60 = 28th, xGA/60 = 25th
21/22 - GA/60 = 80th, SA/60 = 46th, FA/60 = 54th, CA/60 = 29th, xGA/60 = 42nd
22/23 - GA/60 = 148th, SA/60 = 80th, FA/60 = 92nd, CA/60 = 76th, xGA/60 = 96th

Chychrun's 5v5 ranking over the previous 3 years in all defensive RAPM:
20/21 - GA/60 = 116th, SA/60 = 107th, FA/60 = 117th, CA/60 = 135th, xGA/60 = 108th
21/22 - GA/60 = 198th, SA/60 = 151st, FA/60 = 144th, CA/60 = 144th, xGA/60 = 91st
22/23 - GA/60 = 115th, SA/60 = 144th, FA/60 = 117th, CA/60 = 112th, xGA/60 = 158th

It's very important to remember that for at least 2 of those 3 seasons Hanifin played on a far better team than Chychrun as Arizona was deliberately tanking the last 2 seasons. I am not suggesting that Chychrun is better defensively than Hanifin but Chychrun is a very similar defenseman to Dougie Hamilton, one of the best defensemen for getting pucks on the net league wide and not a complete defensive liability

As for offensive impacts this is where Chychrun ranked in those 3 seasons (1st number is all strengths and 2nd number is 5v5 only)
20/21 - iSF/60 = 3rd and 8th, iFF/60 = 2nd and 3rd, iCF/60 = 4th and 5th, ixGF = 4th and 7th
21/22 - iSF/60 = 3rd and 3rd, iFF/60 = 2nd and 2nd, iCF/60 = 3rd and 2nd, ixGF = 8th and 20th
22/23 - iSF/60 = 7th and 13th, iFF/60 = 7th and 8th, iCF/60 = 7th and 15th, ixGF = 3rd and 20th

I'm never sure where you get your numbers from. There are multiple credible articles that show you're wrong.

Noah Hanifin deserves more attention for his 2021–22 season for the Calgary Flames - The Win Column

The Calgary Flames are elite. There’s no doubt about that. The team has been one of the league’s biggest surprises this season and is rightfully garnering a ton of attention league-wide. Various members of the Flames lineup have gained a ton of praise across the league for their strong play and...

thewincolumn.ca

You do realize your own info has Chychrun rated 158th on a comparable team to the Flames in XGA? That's 5/6 type numbers. He's also heavily sheltered where Hanifin plays top competition.

 

[Backlund]

You do realize prospects like Snuggerud and Dvorsky are never traded this soon after their draft year right?

Filip Forsberg & Nick Suzuki were. It may be rare but it has happened.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

We don't see Chychrun the same at all. I see him as a guy well behind all 3 of those guys. His coaching staff is playing him basically how Barrie and DeAngelo are deployed. He can't defend at all. A 20 year old sees more tough minutes.

Ok well it's no mystery at all that the coaching in Ottawa is a mess and DJ should be fired sooner rather than later.

The comparison to Sanderson is strange to me. Like Sanderson is going to be a very good 2-way defenseman in his prime, probably similar to prime Ekholm or Graves. Chabot is not a defensive liability at all. I am not calling him a defensive rock like Weegar, but he is far from as bad as you are making him out to be.

I also think it's worth noting that Sanderson is playing almost strictly with Zub where Chychrun has spent most of his time with a washed up Hamonic or a rookie in JBD.

And where are you getting these stats that Sanderson is seeing way tougher minutes? Yes Sanderson is getting more PK time but Chychrun is getting over 2 minutes more of EV TOI than every defenseman on the team (except Chabot but he's only played 9 games this season).

Like you say his deployment is similar to Barrie and ADA but in Chychrun's last 5 games he's played 25:23, 20:52, 23:04, 19:51, and 19:02.
Barrie (who's been healthy scratched multiple times) has played 15:42, 18:44, 14:19, : 18:57, and 11:07 in his last 5 games. He also averages 15:16 at EV
ADA has played 5:39, 10:13, 9:35, 15:30, and 17:15 in his last 5 games and averages 11:34 at EV.

To me that's not even remotely comparable examples

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I'm never sure where you get your numbers from. There are multiple credible articles that show you're wrong.

Noah Hanifin deserves more attention for his 2021–22 season for the Calgary Flames - The Win Column

The Calgary Flames are elite. There’s no doubt about that. The team has been one of the league’s biggest surprises this season and is rightfully garnering a ton of attention league-wide. Various members of the Flames lineup have gained a ton of praise across the league for their strong play and...

thewincolumn.ca

You do realize your own info has Chychrun rated 158th on a comparable team to the Flames in XGA? That's 5/6 type numbers. He's also heavily sheltered where Hanifin plays top competition.

I get my numbers directly from Evolving Hockey. And as you mentioned specifically their defensive games I provided you with defensive RAPM only. Not SF%, CF%, xGF%, etc because that includes how the team did offensively when the player was on the ice.

Saying the 22/23 Flames and the 22/23 Coyotes were comparable teams is also pure nonsense. Calgary couldn't score last year and Markstrom was swiss cheese but Calgary was top of the league in shot and chance suppression last year behind only Carolina and Seattle. And where do you keep getting this info that he is heavily sheltered?

 

[Double Dion]

Ok well it's no mystery at all that the coaching in Ottawa is a mess and DJ should be fired sooner rather than later.

The comparison to Sanderson is strange to me. Like Sanderson is going to be a very good 2-way defenseman in his prime, probably similar to prime Ekholm or Graves. Chabot is not a defensive liability at all. I am not calling him a defensive rock like Weegar, but he is far from as bad as you are making him out to be.

I also think it's worth noting that Sanderson is playing almost strictly with Zub where Chychrun has spent most of his time with a washed up Hamonic or a rookie in JBD.

And where are you getting these stats that Sanderson is seeing way tougher minutes? Yes Sanderson is getting more PK time but Chychrun is getting over 2 minutes more of EV TOI than every defenseman on the team (except Chabot but he's only played 9 games this season).

Like you say his deployment is similar to Barrie and ADA but in Chychrun's last 5 games he's played 25:23, 20:52, 23:04, 19:51, and 19:02.
Barrie (who's been healthy scratched multiple times) has played 15:42, 18:44, 14:19, : 18:57, and 11:07 in his last 5 games. He also averages 15:16 at EV
ADA has played 5:39, 10:13, 9:35, 15:30, and 17:15 in his last 5 games and averages 11:34 at EV.

To me that's not even remotely comparable examples

It's like you don't realize I'm talking about deployment or struggle with basic concepts sometimes. I'm talking about Ozone starts. Quality of competition. He's playing cream puff competition and still can't tilt anything. He's never played close to the difficulty of minutes that Hanifin always does. Even on the AHL blueline AZ had he was still heavily sheltered. Ottawa tried to use him as a top 4 DEFENDER for part of last season and it was a disaster. Now they are sheltering him like AZ did.

TOI is not the comparison I was making to DeAngelo or Barrie. I was talking about the shelter he gets just like they do. Bouchard is another one who is similar. I'm not sure if you struggle to pick up concepts or are so insecure you have to pretend not to get them so you can be right.

Also Weegar is not as good defensively as Hanifin. He also gets easier minutes. Hanifin and Tanev get the hard minutes. I like Weegar and at least he's actually good defensively and not terrible like Chychrun, but he's not as good as Hanifin. This article may help you.

How has Jakob Chychrun fared on the Senators so far?

Jakob Chychrun has currently played 12 games with the Senators. This article looks at his strengths and shortcomings with his new team.

senshot.com

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

It's like you don't realize I'm talking about deployment or struggle with basic concepts sometimes. I'm talking about Ozone starts. Quality of competition. He's playing cream puff competition and still can't tilt anything. He's never played close to the difficulty of minutes that Hanifin always does. Even on the AHL blueline AZ had he was still heavily sheltered. Ottawa tried to use him as a top 4 DEFENDER for part of last season and it was a disaster. Now they are sheltering him like AZ did.

TOI is not the comparison I was making to DeAngelo or Barrie. I was talking about the shelter he gets just like they do. Bouchard is another one who is similar. I'm not sure if you struggle to pick up concepts or are so insecure you have to pretend not to get them so you can be right.

Also Weegar is not as good defensively as Hanifin. He also gets easier minutes. Hanifin and Tanev get the hard minutes. I like Weegar and at least he's actually good defensively and not terrible like Chychrun, but he's not as good as Hanifin. This article may help you.

How has Jakob Chychrun fared on the Senators so far?

Jakob Chychrun has currently played 12 games with the Senators. This article looks at his strengths and shortcomings with his new team.

senshot.com

I mean last year Arizona was literally holding him out of games and deploying him in favorable situations to raise his trade value when he did play. He also only played 36 games for them last year so the sample sizes are quite small. And as for your article it is based entirely on a 12 game sample size too but he was also playing by far the most elite competition in those 12 games, as I stated 2 posts ago. The year before he was playing against very good QoC of around 80% and a QoT of 38%.
But last year even with his "sheltered minutes" his QoC was still around 50%+ which is far from constantly playing against gritensity only like you are implying.

As for deployment he is barely getting more than 50% offensive zone starts in Ottawa (a 51.5%/48.5% split to be precise). That's hardly sheltered. Brannstrom for example is getting 61.7% offensive zone starts.

I am still not understanding where you are getting this idea that he is sheltered in Ottawa though. Like it's literally impossible to shelter someone when they are playing 20 even strength minutes a night. Can you provide some sort of proof for that accusation

As for Weegar, no Weegar is one of the best shut down defensemen in the league, he's been on par with Tanev in that department. Weegar is miles better defensively than Hanifin and that's why Weegar is legitimately a top 20 defenseman in the league. Hanifin is a great #2 but Weegar is probably the 3rd best #2 in the league only behind Graves and Slavin (I am defining them as #2's based on their playstyle and role). This is not a knock at Hanifin at all but he is absolutely a step below Weegar in defensive play, who last year ranked 19th in GA/60, 1st in SA/60, 3rd in FA/60, 3rd in CA/60, 8th in xGA/60, and 1st in Defensive WAR.

 

[cobra427]

It's like you don't realize I'm talking about deployment or struggle with basic concepts sometimes. I'm talking about Ozone starts. Quality of competition. He's playing cream puff competition and still can't tilt anything. He's never played close to the difficulty of minutes that Hanifin always does. Even on the AHL blueline AZ had he was still heavily sheltered. Ottawa tried to use him as a top 4 DEFENDER for part of last season and it was a disaster. Now they are sheltering him like AZ did.

TOI is not the comparison I was making to DeAngelo or Barrie. I was talking about the shelter he gets just like they do. Bouchard is another one who is similar. I'm not sure if you struggle to pick up concepts or are so insecure you have to pretend not to get them so you can be right.

Also Weegar is not as good defensively as Hanifin. He also gets easier minutes. Hanifin and Tanev get the hard minutes. I like Weegar and at least he's actually good defensively and not terrible like Chychrun, but he's not as good as Hanifin. This article may help you.

How has Jakob Chychrun fared on the Senators so far?

Jakob Chychrun has currently played 12 games with the Senators. This article looks at his strengths and shortcomings with his new team.

senshot.com

Chych was not good on D in AZ, this, along with his injury history limited his return. The book on him is a good offensive player while average or below on D. His best year in Az was second pairing with Goligoski who was solid on D at the time. OEL took the tougher minutes, once he was gone, Chych was exposed.

Hanifin is a much better all around player and very durable. He is worth a first plus a decent prospect as a rental and he's a rental. AZ isn't giving up a 1st for a rental and we are so broke we couldn't sign him long term anyway.

 

[DKH]

Lindholm - McAvoy
HANIFIN- Carlo
Lohrei

Ullmark- Swayman

All affordable after Grzelcyk & Forbort contracts expire

Gets to live in house year round, golf down Cape with buddies, and siblings and parents who live close can watch him play and be nearby. Joins a loaded team

Family, friends, familiarity, and organization tough to beat

I’m going here

 

[Petes2424]

They’ll try increasing the Hanifin return by including someone like Dubé or even Mangiapane. Don’t think it’ll be Sharangovich, but I wouldn’t rule it out, depending on the additional piece it allows them to acquire.

We’ve seen it happen quite a bit over the last 25+ years. Where a team wouldn’t normally move that type of an (additional) high end prospect for a player like Sharangovich (straight up) as an example, but because they want Hanifin (in this case) so badly, are more likely to do it if that second player is included.

The McDonagh trade is a great example. Tampa was able to get Miller too, because they were more willing to move a certain asset in that trade, but wouldn’t have for just Miller, or as a secondary piece for McDonagh. Basically increasing the return for McDonagh.

In that case the prospect never amounted to what people thought he would, but it’s why you see these deals for high end players get expanded.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

They’ll try increasing the Hanifin return by including someone like Dubé or even Mangiapane. Don’t think it’ll be Sharangovich, but I wouldn’t rule it out, depending on the additional piece it allows them to acquire.

We’ve seen it happen quite a bit over the last 25+ years. Where a team wouldn’t normally move that type of an (additional) high end prospect for a player like Sharangovich (straight up) as an example, but because they want Hanifin (in this case) so badly, are more likely to do it if that second player is included.

The McDonagh trade is a great example. Tampa was able to get Miller too, because they were more willing to move a certain asset in that trade, but wouldn’t have for just Miller, or as a secondary piece for McDonagh. Basically increasing the return for McDonagh.

In that case the prospect never amounted to what people thought he would, but it’s why you see these deals for high end players get expanded.

Teams will have issues affording Hanafin at his cap hit much less with additional cap hits from other players. This is a different cap environment then when McDonagh got traded