Value of: Noah Dobson

[impaaaaaact]

That's a pass from this Sharks fan
I'd rather us draft Martone if we drop to 3
And if a trade is in the works that I substitute Dallas's 1st for Musty and the 2nd

That's fair, appreciate your input.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah if you’re using Trouba as a comp in good faith then we just aren’t going to have a productive conversation here. Here are Dobson's per/82 for his four full seasons: 12G, 43A, 55P playing 22 mins a night. His average point output clears Troubas best season. Sergachev and Jones had a combined 2 seasons that clear that average pre-trade. Dobson's value isn't discounted just because his point totals were slightly down on a year the entire team was decimated with injuries. He has a track record.

You're right, the Jones trade did include the very late first, but I think that you're also forgetting that Boqvist was a very recent top 10 pick. Jones had an NTC at the time of his trade and had leverage - he was still traded for a #8 OA, a #6 OA, moving up 20 picks in the first round, and a second. There are no reports of Dobson playing hardball; contrarily, he signed with a new agent midseason to try and expedite the process of getting a new deal.

Yes, I'm saying Dobson and the #10 (Eklund/McQueen/O'Brien) for the #3 (Hagens/Frondell/Desnoyers), Musty, and the second.

Yeah, it's not going to be productive when you're going to pretend that every defenseman's trade value is based on points. Trouba's value then was based on a track record too while also playing similar minutes.

Being a recent top 10 pick only really matters if you're making an impression with the opportunities you're getting up to that point. Boqvist was pretty average over two NHL seasons where he saw significant time with Chicago. He didn't really have any standout abilities he was showing at the NHL level and since they were getting a bigger more reliable player at his position, they felt he was expendable and his career has played out to show that they were correct in that assessment. Boqvist is very much qualified to be in that good prospect or young roster player category for the generic return I mentioned for Dobson. If Dobson isn't going to play hardball then it's in the Islanders' best interest to get him signed and move forward. As it stands now, the entire reason he's on the trade market is because he lacks a contract and has leverage to get something he wants done whether that's a new deal on the island or a move to a place he wants to go so they can give the Islanders some trade value they can use while avoiding his clearly large incoming extension. Trouba, in the same situation, leveraged himself to the Rangers and got a 7x8 which is right in line with what Dobson is likely to get this offseason. Dobson is probably getting the same 9.82% of the cap which is around 9.4 mil in today's cap that Trouba got in 2019.

As for that proposal, I'd probably say no but that's at least in the ballpark to me.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I wouldn't mind to see Nikishin and Romanov playing together for the Isles, but I'm afraid Carolina fans won't agree with me.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Yeah, it's not going to be productive when you're going to pretend that every defenseman's trade value is based on points. Trouba's value then was based on a track record too while also playing similar minutes.

Being a recent top 10 pick only really matters if you're making an impression with the opportunities you're getting up to that point. Boqvist was pretty average over two NHL seasons where he saw significant time with Chicago. He didn't really have any standout abilities he was showing at the NHL level and since they were getting a bigger more reliable player at his position, they felt he was expendable and his career has played out to show that they were correct in that assessment. Boqvist is very much qualified to be in that good prospect or young roster player category for the generic return I mentioned for Dobson. If Dobson isn't going to play hardball then it's in the Islanders' best interest to get him signed and move forward. As it stands now, the entire reason he's on the trade market is because he lacks a contract and has leverage to get something he wants done whether that's a new deal on the island or a move to a place he wants to go so they can give the Islanders some trade value they can use while avoiding his clearly large incoming extension. Trouba, in the same situation, leveraged himself to the Rangers and got a 7x8 which is right in line with what Dobson is likely to get this offseason. Dobson is probably getting the same 9.82% of the cap which is around 9.4 mil in today's cap that Trouba got in 2019.

As for that proposal, I'd probably say no but that's at least in the ballpark to me.

I'm not pretending anything. Offensive defensemen have higher market value than defensive leaning ones. Dobson is probably top 15 amongst defensemen in points since he's been full time, and probably top 10 as an RHD. He's worth a lot. Absolutely more than Trouba.

As far as Boqvist, he is on the Islanders now. He wouldn't be the kind of young roster player that you would receive in a trade for Dobson. He is on the same team as Dobson because you can just pick him up for free on waivers. It sort of illustrates the whole risk of trading a proven NHL player for a handful of highly touted magic beans.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I wouldn't mind to see Nikishin and Romanov playing together for the Isles, but I'm afraid Carolina fans won't agree with me.

Who cares if they agree with you? I agree with you.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm not pretending anything. Offensive defensemen have higher market value than defensive leaning ones. Dobson is probably top 15 amongst defensemen in points since he's been full time, and probably top 10 as an RHD. He's worth a lot. Absolutely more than Trouba.

As far as Boqvist, he is on the Islanders now. He wouldn't be the kind of young roster player that you would receive in a trade for Dobson. He is on the same team as Dobson because you can just pick him up for free on waivers. It sort of illustrates the whole risk of trading a proven NHL player for a handful of highly touted magic beans.

If that were true, Karlsson would've gotten more than a 1st round pick coming off his 100 point Norris season. But contracts and leverage that comes with it matters for trade value. When you think that Trouba at that time is a strictly defensive leaning player after a 50 point season, you absolutely are pretending here.

When I say kind of player, I mean someone at a similar age in a similar position with similar experience. Again, the Isles aren't trading Dobson unless they're uninterested in extending him. That's going to help determine his trade value and it's not going to return two top-12 1st round pick caliber assets and it's not going to be a 3rd overall either. Why would any team in that spot move that pick for him when he's an RFA that is being potentially moved because of contract issues? They don't have to and most have other acceptable assets to get a deal done. A Dobson trade is going look something like the Dallas 1st, Musty, and Kovalenko more than 3rd overall.

 

[JadedRandom]

Eventhough we made the playoffs, we're still in the retool phase, albeit at the end of it. Dvorsky, Snuggerud, Stenberg and Lindstein (forgot to mention him) are going to be important pieces of our roster in the near future.

I'd do 25 1st, 26 1st and, for example, Ralph + potentially a lesser pick/prospect. That package is probably in the same value range as the proposed MTL trade of Hage + 1st + 2nd.




I don't see the Blues trading Neighbours. He's very popular within the organization and is seen as a future captain.

I disagree on this. I think the hypothetical Montreal package is much better than what St. Louis is giving up.

Hage is the best single piece out of both deals, easily better than St. Louis' 19th-overall pick for this year's draft given his progression from last year and performance on a weak-ish Michigan team.

Montreal's 16th or 17th pick in this year's draft is a lot better than STL's 2026 first considering the Montreal pick will be made a year earlier (extra year of development for the prospect chosen) AND will likely be a higher pick vs. the 2026 pick that St. Louis would give up.

And Colin Ralph has had a fine D+1 but I would say his relative value is only marginally higher than that of the 2025 MTL/PIT 2nd (41 or 48).

The only thing that would potentially "save" the value of the deal on St. Louis' part would be the "lesser pick and prospect" addition, which isn't saying much since in this case its relative value would be that of a mid-round pick given its order of inclusion in the deal.

Said succinctly, the Montreal package gives the 2 best pieces, and would be the better one of the two by quite a bit.

Except that I don't see Dobson being traded unless it is in exchange for a significant forward that would be able to be inserted right now into the Islanders' lineup.

Which is a condition that I don't think either deal clears for that matter.

 

[icelander25]

I think that Ottawa would be a good fit for a rising team with some cap space. Something around Dobson + Pageau for Yakemchuck + Pinto would be beneficial for both teams. Yakemchuck has struggled this year but it gives the Isles something to look forward to in the RHD pipeline. Pinto’s another good young player who’d the Isles like, and has more value than Pageau so that offsets the Dobson/Yak value difference.
I’d like the hear Ottawa fans reactions to this but I think it’s pretty fair for both teams.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I think that Ottawa would be a good fit for a rising team with some cap space. Something around Dobson + Pageau for Yakemchuck + Pinto would be beneficial for both teams. Yakemchuck has struggled this year but it gives the Isles something to look forward to in the RHD pipeline. Pinto’s another good young player who’d the Isles like, and has more value than Pageau so that offsets the Dobson/Yak value difference.
I’d like the hear Ottawa fans reactions to this but I think it’s pretty fair for both teams.

I would do this but I have a feeling Ottawa would not. They just got another center, I don’t think they need Pageau for anything, but they could probably trade one.

Sens fans, what’s been the rollout at C since acquiring Cozens? Do you think you’re keeping both Pinto and Grieg in the offseason?

 

[icelander25]

I would do this but I have a feeling Ottawa would not. They just got another center, I don’t think they need Pageau for anything, but they could probably trade one.

Sens fans, what’s been the rollout at C since acquiring Cozens? Do you think you’re keeping both Pinto and Grieg in the offseason?

I only included Pageau since he’s still a positive asset who would replace Pinto at 3C for a year, but he can easily be taken out of the deal. Add something small or nothing in turn, doesn’t really matter

 

[boredmale]

I only included Pageau since he’s still a positive asset who would replace Pinto at 3C for a year, but he can easily be taken out of the deal. Add something small or nothing in turn, doesn’t really matter

Ottawa is up against the cap, the Pageau/Dobson combo would kill them

 

[Comely]

I would do this but I have a feeling Ottawa would not. They just got another center, I don’t think they need Pageau for anything, but they could probably trade one.

Sens fans, what’s been the rollout at C since acquiring Cozens? Do you think you’re keeping both Pinto and Grieg in the offseason?

Greig and Pinto have been very successful on the same line for the last month or so, I dont expect any of the Sens centres to get traded.

 

[Altimus]

Dobson is too expensive to add to our blueline. rather roll the dice on Yak to begin the season. got three years of ELC to put on the second pairing RHD if he does as well as last camp.. I dont see Ottawa trading for a player on the decline like Pageau is now. love the guy but he is not a 5mil player. Also our prospect pool is drying up so we cant be sending them out, need those cheap contracts to fill in the gaps.

 

[jfhabs]

I'd probably offer more than that from the Habs pov

Mailloux + 1st MTL + 1st CGY VS Dobson

 

[ginomini]

I would imagine he garners a return similar to the Chychrun trade to Ottawa. A teens pick, and a couple of seconds or prospects.

I don't think his value is as high as those trade suggestions given the horrible season and contract negotiations.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I would imagine he garners a return similar to the Chychrun trade to Ottawa. A teens pick, and a couple of seconds or prospects.

I don't think his value is as high as those trade suggestions given the horrible season and contract negotiations.

Chychrun is probably a good player to compare him to though as they play similar roles.

Dobson's 45 point pace over 82 games in't exactly horrible. In comparison to Chychrun, that's more than he ever had in his career pre-trade - again, this is Dobson's worst career output on a team that was decimated with injuries. Chychrun is an LHD and was two years to UFA, while Dobson is an RHD still under team control. Dobson missed the most games of his career this year with 11, while Chychrun had never even been able to play 70 games in a season (to be fair, he played every game in 2021).

But rounding that all up, Dobson plays the more valuable side, scores more points, is younger, is an RFA, and has been healthier throughout his career. For these reasons I think you can expect a larger return than Chychrun.

 

[ginomini]

Chychrun is probably a good player to compare him to though as they play similar roles.

Dobson's 45 point pace over 82 games in't exactly horrible - In comparison to Chychrun, that's more than he ever had in his career pre-trade. Chychrun is an LHD and was two years to UFA, while Dobson is still under team control. Dobson missed the most games of his career this year with 11, while Chychrun had never even been able to play 70 games in a season (to be fair, he played every game in 2021).

But rounding that all up, Dobson plays the more valuable side, scores more points, is younger, is an RFA, and has been healthier throughout his career. For these reasons I think you can expect a larger return than Chychrun.

You are probably right, but I still doubt teams would offer established young players like Eklund. I might be mistaken tho!

Edit- I also feel like his value within the league will be somewhat dictated by his monetary demands

 

[impaaaaaact]

You are probably right, but I still doubt teams would offer established young players like Eklund. I might be mistaken tho!

Edit- I also feel like his value within the league will be somewhat dictated by his monetary demands

That’s true - Chychrun was 2 years from UFA, but he was also on a very team friendly contract for 2 years. Dobson will basically immediately be at 9M+ so it’s not like a team is getting a break salary-wise.

He also basically came out and said he was down for whatever at locker clean out today - seems like his main objective is to get paid.

 

[DesertPenguin]

He has one game of pro experience, Musty is a no-go for NYI.

They need to acquire someone who can make an immediate impact on the roster.

Something around Rakell + then? Rakell + Brunicke? Not sure how much the league values Brunicke yet but the Pens see him as a future stud.

Pens would then recoup assets sending out Karlsson with retention in a separate deal.

 

[chethejet]

Pens need LD. Now if Letang is shot, then Pens can go after him with Letang on LTIR. Karlsson with 3 million retained leaves 7 million in cap space before what the contract coming back is. But Timmins, ST Ivany maybe the rookie Brunicke coming so RD is not a concern unless Letang is done.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Something around Rakell + then? Rakell + Brunicke? Not sure how much the league values Brunicke yet but the Pens see him as a future stud.

Pens would then recoup assets sending out Karlsson with retention in a separate deal.

I could see Rakell being part of a deal, but he’s 31 and signed for 2 seasons. He would not be the main piece

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

That’s true - Chychrun was 2 years from UFA, but he was also on a very team friendly contract for 2 years. Dobson will basically immediately be at 9M+ so it’s not like a team is getting a break salary-wise.

He also basically came out and said he was down for whatever at locker clean out today - seems like his main objective is to get paid.

Maybe Winnipeg trades Pionk, a 1st, and a prospect for Dobson.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Maybe Winnipeg trades Pionk, a 1st, and a prospect for Dobson.

They just signed Pionk a few days ago, they're not trading him

 

[AuraSphere]

Leafs don't really have any trading assets, would be a good target otherwise especially if Marner walks

 

[elitepete]

You know the drill, Isles have 75 defensemen under contract and at least one of them needs to go. Dobson is the easiest to move and will get the biggest return. Would prefer to send him to the west coast in case he turns into Pietrangelo. Assuming your team gets to work out a contract with him beforehand, what kind of offer comes through? Some ideas, let me know how off I am:


SJ: Wiliam Eklund + DAL 1st

SEA: Dobson + NYI 2025 1st for Rehkopf, SEA 2025 and 2026 1st (top 3 protected)

MTL: Hage + 1st + 2nd

Lekkerimaki + Kudryavtsev + 1st