Value of: Noah Dobson, based on Sergachev Trade

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Plus, if he has another season like the one he had this year he probably costs himself something between 20-30 million dollars. The only reason he might get 9.5-10M is based off of a season that he hasn't replicated. Walking himself to arbitration would be an insane gamble right now.

I don't share this viewpoint. At worst he's a 50 point RD which puts him in the top 10 of 100+ RD men. He plays on a team that consistently finishes in the bottom 10 of scoring league-wide. As much as you can point to brainfarts here and there and spots in his game he consistently ranks in the top 20% of defensive metrics while being paired with LD that bring down his stats.

He's going to get paid and his value in trade is a lot more than what his offer sheet comparables would be.

We are on HF so we know that young boys submissive on their ELC's or undrafted are the most coveted, worth more than players contributing on an NHL team but the hot takes (not saying yours) on here are ridiculous.

"Come on, he's only top 10 in scoring the past four years on a horrific offensive team...I wouldn't give a late first or my D prospect for him".

Guarantee he would bring in more than that, even if he's got "all the leverage" and can "walk right to UFA!"

Do you think a team that still has firsts in upcoming years sees Dobson at the trade deadline and says to themselves "Nope, not worth a 1st and an A, B+ Prospect"?

On this board he's getting LESS than that for a year. It's absurd.

And I do believe if he were to sign a 6-8 year deal at 9 most teams would find that attractive. It would be better than waiting two years when that same aged, less productive D is going to make the same or a comparable D is going to make more.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I don't share this viewpoint. At worst he's a 50 point RD which puts him in the top 10 of 100+ RD men. He plays on a team that consistently finishes in the bottom 10 of scoring league-wide. As much as you can point to brainfarts here and there and spots in his game he consistently ranks in the top 20% of defensive metrics while being paired with LD that bring down his stats.

He's going to get paid and his value in trade is a lot more than what his offer sheet comparables would be.

We are on HF so we know that young boys submissive on their ELC's or undrafted are the most coveted, worth more than players contributing on an NHL team but the hot takes (not saying yours) on here are ridiculous.

"Come on, he's only top 10 in scoring the past four years on a horrific offensive team...I wouldn't give a late first or my D prospect for him".

Guarantee he would bring in more than that, even if he's got "all the leverage" and can "walk right to UFA!"

Do you think a team that still has firsts in upcoming years sees Dobson at the trade deadline and says to themselves "Nope, not worth a 1st and an A, B+ Prospect"?

On this board he's getting LESS than that for a year. It's absurd.

And I do believe if he were to sign a 6-8 year deal at 9 most teams would find that attractive. It would be better than waiting two years when that same aged, less productive D is going to make the same or a comparable D is going to make more.

Agreed, even if he's on a one year deal he would be traded at the deadline for something like 2 1sts. The de-valuation on these boards has gotten insane

 

[Godfather]

Dobson
Mayfield @ 75%
Jefferies
2nd rd. pick 2025

for


Kyrou
Faulk @ 50%
Dean
1st rd pick 25

 

[impaaaaaact]

Dobson
Mayfield @ 75%
Jefferies
2nd rd. pick 2025

for


Kyrou
Faulk @ 50%
Dean
1st rd pick 25

As in we retain 25% on Mayfield right? Deal

 

[WingsToPick4th]

Dobson to Detroit for
13th overall, Nate Danielson, Berggren and Rasmussen

 

[alphafox]

If Dobson Really is Available, I could see the Jackets pushing Hard for a Sign and Trade:

14th OA, 20th OA, Cole Sillinger and Damon Severson

 

[miscs75]

If Dobson Really is Available, I could see the Jackets pushing Hard for a Sign and Trade:

14th OA, 20th OA, Cole Sillinger and Damon Severson

Severson has WAY too much term left. Isles don’t need another 30+ year old signed until social security.

 

[alphafox]

Severson has WAY too much term left. Isles don’t need another 30+ year old signed until social security.

Fair enough, I figured you would want a RD replacement, happy to drop him off if there is negative value.

 

[miscs75]

Fair enough, I figured you would want a RD replacement, happy to drop him off if there is negative value.

Not with term. Isles have too many players with similar term and 3 of them are 30+ defensmen.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Dobson to Detroit for
13th overall, Nate Danielson, Berggren and Rasmussen

I don't love it but I guess the value isn't far off. Not high on Danielson or Berggren personally

Severson has WAY too much term left. Isles don’t need another 30+ year old signed until social security.

Same sort of thing. Don't love Sillinger but the value is probably there

 

[SteelCityCannon]

If Dobson Really is Available, I could see the Jackets pushing Hard for a Sign and Trade:

14th OA, 20th OA, Cole Sillinger and Damon Severson

Our FO loves Sillinger. I like him, but id do that. I kinda doubt they'd want Sevo, plus he has a NTC.

 

[miscs75]

Same sort of thing. Don't love Sillinger but the value is probably there

My biggest thing is that term for Severson. If a cap dump has to come back, a guy on an expiring deal would be the player being sent to the Island. Not a guy signed until 2031. Sillinger is another bottom 6 forward in all reality who really doesn’t move the needle for this team.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Dobson
Mayfield @ 75%
Jefferies
2nd rd. pick 2025

for


Kyrou
Faulk @ 50%
Dean
1st rd pick 25

That’s pretty rough for the Blues - very rough. You don’t rob Peter to pay Paul with where the Blues are at and trading Kyrou and adding Dobson is taking 2 steps forward and 2 and a half back accounting for what the likely cap hits will be of each. Blues don’t need a shakeup they need to add to the core.

Virtually 0 reason to add in Faulk if you’re going at 50% especially if you’re taking on Mayfield at essentially the same cap hit.

I think there’s a deal to work for Dobson and in a perfect world it would revolve around Faulk + Bolduc and a few other pieces with Bolduc being the centerpiece which he should be. 21 year old who scored at .5 ppg in a pretty limited role with non scoring line mates there’s a very easy pathway to him being a top 6 player as early as next year.

 

[Wayfarer13]

It's going to be hard to find a deal for Dobson if your top 4 or 5 assets are off the table. Hutson and and Demidov rightfully so, but you'd think one of Reinbacher, Hage, or Slafkovsky would have to be included in this deal.

Depends on the motivations of the trade. The only way Dobson gets traded is if the Isles decide to trade him. If they decide to part with him then it's the return that needs to be settled. The market will determine that.Take the Zegras trade for an example. It has been a favorite thread on here for a couple of years now with the return in the end paling with the d3mands on here. What is Dobson worth? A little bit more than second best offer.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

That’s pretty rough for the Blues - very rough. You don’t rob Peter to pay Paul with where the Blues are at and trading Kyrou

Is he even available?

 

[impaaaaaact]

Depends on the motivations of the trade. The only way Dobson gets traded is if the Isles decide to trade him. If they decide to part with him then it's the return that needs to be settled. The market will determine that.Take the Zegras trade for an example. It has been a favorite thread on here for a couple of years now with the return in the end paling with the d3mands on here. What is Dobson worth? A little bit more than second best offer.

Dobson and Zegras situations have nothing to do with each other.

A little bit more than the second offer will require MTL to give up something of significant value.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Is he even available?

There were rumors popping up on twitter that STL called about Dobson yesterday

 

[alphafox]

My biggest thing is that term for Severson. If a cap dump has to come back, a guy on an expiring deal would be the player being sent to the Island. Not a guy signed until 2031. Sillinger is another bottom 6 forward in all reality who really doesn’t move the needle for this team.

I would consider Voronkov or Chinakov replacing Sillinger (although I don't think his bottom six characterization is fair as he is still 22) as well as retaining on Severson, but he can be dumped out of the deal regardless or substituted for Gudbranson who will be a UFA.

 

[impaaaaaact]

My biggest thing is that term for Severson. If a cap dump has to come back, a guy on an expiring deal would be the player being sent to the Island. Not a guy signed until 2031. Sillinger is another bottom 6 forward in all reality who really doesn’t move the needle for this team.

Sorry, meant to be piggy backing off of the following posts. Definitely don’t need Severson.

We’re in the 3 1sts territory with the offers though finally. Feels like that’s in the range of what he goes for.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Is he even available?

Dobson or Kyrou?

 

[BleedBlue14]

There were rumors popping up on twitter that STL called about Dobson yesterday

Makes sense Armstrong did a press conference yesterday and didn't rule out trading the 1st but had said (paraphrased) that he'd be open to it in a deal for an NHL player in the 20-21...25 age range. Dobson fits a pretty big need for St. Louis for now and in the future. Issue is it's really hard to tell what Dobson is and if it's worth it at the contract amount he's probably going to get which I'd guess is around 10-11m AAV.

 

[YP44]

With the Islanders naming their new GM from the Lightning, I wanted to look at the possibility of trading Dobson through the lens of the Sergachev return. They received a high end on-the-cusp prospect, a good young NHL player, a 2nd, and lots of cap space (which helped them sign Guentzel).

Assuming Dobson signs around 9x7, are the following proposals comparable to that trade, and do you think your team would be interested? Add/subtract picks as needed:

Utah: Hayton, Lamereaux, 2nd

Dallas: Bourque, Bischel

Seattle: Wright, Nelson, 1st

LA: Clarke, Turcotte

Utah: Think they need some center help. If they address that first then maybe
Dallas: They are too capped out
Seattle: Seems like too much IMO
LA: I am a biased kings fan. The value is likely close but I don't do it as I prefer depth and think Clarke can become Dobson.

 

[miscs75]

I would consider Voronkov or Chinakov replacing Sillinger (although I don't think his bottom six characterization is fair as he is still 22) as well as retaining on Severson, but he can be dumped out of the deal regardless or substituted for Gudbranson who will be a UFA.

With Severson, the issue comes down to that disaster of a contract. Signed at $6.25 until 2031 isn't really anything anyone would touch without adding on some form of a significant asset. It's similar to the Pelech and Pulock deals, which both end in 2029 and 2030.
As for Voronkov or Chinakov, I'd take Voronkov if it came down to them. Sillinger seems like a middle 6 guy who would be more of a 3rd line piece on a true playoff team. His 3 seasons of low 30s point totals isn't anything to impress anyone over but still decent for a complimentary depth piece.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Utah: Think they need some center help. If they address that first then maybe
Dallas: They are too capped out
Seattle: Seems like too much IMO
LA: I am a biased kings fan. The value is likely close but I don't do it as I prefer depth and think Clarke can become Dobson.

lol I forgot how low I started most of these besides Seattle. FWIW that was maybe a month ago so things have obviously changed

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Dobson or Kyrou?

Kyrou