the most realistic deal between these two teams is probably something around Kyrou and Dobson tbh. I think I'd rather keep Dobson at the end of the day though. Don't think Neighbors + Jiricek gets it done.
Value of: Noah Dobson, based on Sergachev Trade
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GhostfaceWu
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Dr Robot
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I personally rate neighbors a good bit higher than Bolduc so id be fine if he was the piece. Some combination of Bolduc/Jiricek/this years first would be a reasonable basis on St. Louises end. Not sure the full package you guys are looking for.
Offensive defensemen are useful, but when they can't play defense, something like Carolina - Florida series happens. You need to play good defense to be successful in playoffs...
rsteen
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Seattle has Montour as well in that offensive RHD role so I can't see them going out to give up a lot of assets to acquire another one. Maybe if Dobson was younger/cheaper with a view to him replacing Montour when he got his big contract, but not right now.
I think something along the lines of Bolduc/Jiricek/2nd would do it, and I think most Isles fans would be on board. Not quite what Sergachev or Jones went for, but I could see it.
As an Isles fan, no thanks. If they can't do better than this, just hold onto Dobson.
Dobson is fascinating. Is two years ago the real him or was this year his norm? In this insane AAV future we're in, that makes a monster sign-and-trade really, really risky. You lock him down at 9 mill a year and next thing you know you're handcuffed for almost a decade if Dobson is only getting 45 points and hovering around a -8. There's a lot of risk in that sign and trade, and I think STL makes a great trade partner for you guys. We have a ton of young wingers, our first this year is totally in play and we have some vets to move that'd make salary work.
As others have said, something like Bolduc + 19th OA + Vet (Faulk, Joseph, Texier, etc.) would be our initial offer (and for the record, I love Bolduc, it would hurt), but depending on how Dobson is valued a 1 for 1 for Kyrou seems fair IF Dobson is the 70-point monster he was two years ago moving forward.
As others have said, something like Bolduc + 19th OA + Vet (Faulk, Joseph, Texier, etc.) would be our initial offer (and for the record, I love Bolduc, it would hurt), but depending on how Dobson is valued a 1 for 1 for Kyrou seems fair IF Dobson is the 70-point monster he was two years ago moving forward.
His stat line this year was the result of a few things…
1. He got injured
2. Barzal was out most of year + Nelson traded which lead to…
3. Worst PP in the league… again
On a competent team I think you pencil him in for 10+ G/ 55-60 points. His advanced stats 5v5 are generally great, but sometimes the eye test can be brutal.
He used to be alright/passable defensively, but the last 2 seasons he’s been bullied in key moments. Maybe a coaching thing? Maybe a psychology thing? Not sure. But for that reason, I’d rather keep him and hope he figures it out. Just not sure if mgmt agrees
Gotcha. Thanks for the context--I didn't catch many NYI games this year and I figured there were some extenuating circumstances.
Has there been any insiders indicating Dobson is being shopped or wanting out? Like you, I would figure that he is a piece anyone would keep in an ideal world. Then again, if Dobson has indicated he wants out in UFA no matter what, your hand would be forced in moving him now or at the deadline.
oconnor9sean
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I would kill for Dobson in Dallas. Lindell-Dobson would be such a nice 2nd pair behind Harley-Heiskanen.
The timeline has basically been this:
1. Dobson scores 70 points in a season, Lou does not immediately lock him up.
2. Friedman reports it was possible his name was out there in a potential Elias Petterson deal
3. Dobson changes agents midseason. Friedman reports it's more about getting a deal done than forcing a trade.
4. Dobson ends season playing at a 45 point pace, the lowest of his career as a full time player - this comes 1 season after posting his highest point total, and in a contract season.
5. In his exit interview, Dobson says something along the lines of he's open to anything this offseason, and there's lots of options around the league.
So he's at the very least not married to the idea of staying here - It seems like he wants to get paid. We don't know what his number is - the beat writers were guessing 8x8 preseason, but all the projections have him at 10... and that comes after his worst season. Pre-season I was saying that if he repeated a 60 point year I thought he'd get 11M+, but obviously that didn't happen. I think the projections are probably closer than the beat writer guesses though, and he probably gets something like 9.5.
The final piece of this is that we just hired Darche, who comes from TBL. They have a history of making cold, calculated moves as well as trading big name defensemen like Macdonough and Sergachev. So if there's a 2M-ish gap between what the player wants and what the team is offering, it seems like it's possible that he could be moved.
It would be insane, and probably the exact situation he would thrive in. What's the offer from you guys?
KingsHockey24
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oconnor9sean
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Probably only happens if Robertson is moved. Assets from that deal would have to be used.
I'm a big fan of Dobson. I dont know why the Isles would trade him. Schaeffer is a great player but hes not going to step in right away as a top pair guy, and Dobson is still quite young himself. Why not build around both of them?
I could see NYI taking a run at Marner to add an "elite" forward to the mix, keeping the defence as-is, and suddenly becoming the 5th or so best team in a very terrible eastern conference. Failing that, if they want to re-allocate some assets from defence to offense, I could see a talent for talent type trade based around a Kyrou or Robertson with a team like Dallas or St. Louis who wants to do the opposite, but even in those scenarios id much rather have Dobson.
Trading him for an offer around magic beans (a 1st + prospect) seems like horrible asset management, thats what you do with a rental or someone who wants out. Dobson is neither.
I could see NYI taking a run at Marner to add an "elite" forward to the mix, keeping the defence as-is, and suddenly becoming the 5th or so best team in a very terrible eastern conference. Failing that, if they want to re-allocate some assets from defence to offense, I could see a talent for talent type trade based around a Kyrou or Robertson with a team like Dallas or St. Louis who wants to do the opposite, but even in those scenarios id much rather have Dobson.
Trading him for an offer around magic beans (a 1st + prospect) seems like horrible asset management, thats what you do with a rental or someone who wants out. Dobson is neither.
It would definitely be more than a first+ a prospect. We can't afford Marner and keep the defense as is, before even getting to the question of him signing with us.
It all stems around if mgmt thinks he's worth the contract he's asking for. If the previous regime did, he'd probably be signed already. I agree, I don't think it's wise to move him even if he ends up overpaid by 1-2M.
oconnor9sean
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If I were Jim Nill, yes. I’d do Dobson + some picks for Robertson and then use those picks to go get a top-9 piece or two.
KingsHockey24
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