Blue Jays Discussion: No More AA, Everyone is very Sad (and by Sad, I mean Mad)

[Discoverer]

He's not exactly wrong. Long term contracts on these guys are good short term but are short sighted.

Yeah, with most long-term, big-money deals that are signed, a "successful" free agent contract tends to be one that almost breaks even. You're almost always signing a player for a couple peak years and a bunch of decline years.

I wouldn't be surprised if the strategy with the rotation this offseason is to add a couple mid/back of the rotation arms for a couple years.

 

[theaub]

I know I may get roasted for this but I am going to say it anyway. Would it be better served to trade Bautista this off season for a young pitcher and prospects. Use the money saved on Bautista on a lefty bat that can hit for average and decent power to plug into RF. Alex Gordon?

You have enough power in the lineup in EE, Tulo, Donaldson. Too one dimensional and Bautista is repetitive.

With Buerhle, Romero, Price, Izturis, Navarro, Estrada, Thole, Pennington, Smoak, Hawkins, Lowe, Kawasaki all coming off the books we will have in and around 45 million to fill our roster with this including some other lower contracts coming off the books.

If you add Bautista to that its close to 60 million. That should be enough to sign Price, Estrada and Navarro.

Im thinking Price for 20 million, Estrada for 11 million and Navarro for 3.5 million per season. So lets say that's 35 million. which leaves us 25 million left to fillout a left handed RF bat, bullpen and bench.

Sign Gordon for 12 million a season. Leaves us 13 million for bullpen and bench.

Sign 2 quality arms in bullpen (Lowe and someone else). You can probably get that done for about 7 million combined.

Leaves you 6 million for raises (Donaldson, Pillar, Hutch, Revere), and some low salary bench players.

My lineup

Revere - LF
Travis -2B
Tulowitzki - SS
Donaldson - 3B
Gordon - RF
EE -DH
Colabello - 1B
Martin - C
Pillar - CF

Bench - Goins (IF), Pompey (OF), Saunders (OF), Smoak (1B), Navarro (C)

Price
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Hutch

Hendricks, Tepera, Loup, Cecil, Lowe, Sanchez, FA pickup, Osuna


Is it possible?

1) Alex Gordon will make at least $15M per year, if not more.
2) David Price will make at least $28M per year, if not more
3) Navarro made $5M last year, why would he take a pay cut to remain as a backup catcher?
4) Donaldson's raise alone will be $6M. The likely raises for those three players is on the north side of $10M, and that doesn't include arb raises to Cecil, Smoak and Saunders (in essence, moves 1-4 here have covered the entire $60M)
5) Jose Bautista is an elite hitter. Being 'repetitive' with elite hitters is not a bad thing. Alex Gordon is not an elite hitter (he is far, far superior defensively though). Bautista also is on an incredibly affordable contract, and fits this team's aging curve perfectly. His value to us in our current situation far outweights what we would get for him.

 

[deletethis]

Based on Drew Hutchinson's season, he'll be lucky to be the Jays' 5th starter let alone anyone else's. For an ideal starting staff, the team as it stands right now is this way:

1. vacant
2. Stroman
3. vacant
4. Dickey
5. vacant

I hope to see Estrada return to fill the 3. spot but he couldn't be hitting the FA market at a better time. Price is highly likely to bolt for the best deal which is something the Jays won't be willing to offer. Unless Hutchinson has some sort of nagging injury that healed, he's out of the rotation unless out of necessity. I'd assume that Sanchez will be promoted to starting again. Here's a realistic rotation to start next season:

1. Stroman
2. Estrada or roughly equivalent acquisition
3. Dickey
4. Sanchez
5. Free agent signing/trade acquisition

You hope that Sanchez grows into a bigger role as the season progresses and Stroman can keep rolling. Ideally by season's end Dickey's role is reduced and other pitchers emerge.

 

[BertCorbeau]

1) Alex Gordon will make at least $15M per year, if not more.
2) David Price will make at least $28M per year, if not more
3) Navarro made $5M last year, why would he take a pay cut to remain as a backup catcher?
4) Donaldson's raise alone will be $6M. The likely raises for those three players is on the north side of $10M, and that doesn't include arb raises to Cecil, Smoak and Saunders (in essence, moves 1-4 here have covered the entire $60M)
5) Jose Bautista is an elite hitter. Being 'repetitive' with elite hitters is not a bad thing. Alex Gordon is not an elite hitter (he is far, far superior defensively though). Bautista also is on an incredibly affordable contract, and fits this team's aging curve perfectly. His value to us in our current situation far outweights what we would get for him.

Bautista also makes the same as Gordon currently - $14 mill .. Even if, for some miraculous reason, Gordon wants $12 mill that's only $2 million in savings

 

[deletethis]

Even with AA staying I thought the prevailing thought was the Jays' flipping one of its big bats for pitching arms. It may yet be a shocking off-season where a couple of the Jays' big name bats are moved for younger prospective major leaguers.

 

[theaub]

That's the prevailing thought of people who don't understand how win curves work, yes.

Trading Bautista or Edwin for anything but an impact ML arm (which won't happen) hurts you both now and in the future.

 

[LaCarriere]

I know I may get roasted for this but I am going to say it anyway. Would it be better served to trade Bautista this off season for a young pitcher and prospects. Use the money saved on Bautista on a lefty bat that can hit for average and decent power to plug into RF. Alex Gordon?

You have enough power in the lineup in EE, Tulo, Donaldson. Too one dimensional and Bautista is repetitive.

With Buerhle, Romero, Price, Izturis, Navarro, Estrada, Thole, Pennington, Smoak, Hawkins, Lowe, Kawasaki all coming off the books we will have in and around 45 million to fill our roster with this including some other lower contracts coming off the books.

If you add Bautista to that its close to 60 million. That should be enough to sign Price, Estrada and Navarro.

Im thinking Price for 20 million, Estrada for 11 million and Navarro for 3.5 million per season. So lets say that's 35 million. which leaves us 25 million left to fillout a left handed RF bat, bullpen and bench.

Sign Gordon for 12 million a season. Leaves us 13 million for bullpen and bench.

Sign 2 quality arms in bullpen (Lowe and someone else). You can probably get that done for about 7 million combined.

Leaves you 6 million for raises (Donaldson, Pillar, Hutch, Revere), and some low salary bench players.

My lineup

Revere - LF
Travis -2B
Tulowitzki - SS
Donaldson - 3B
Gordon - RF
EE -DH
Colabello - 1B
Martin - C
Pillar - CF

Bench - Goins (IF), Pompey (OF), Saunders (OF), Smoak (1B), Navarro (C)

Price
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Hutch

Hendricks, Tepera, Loup, Cecil, Lowe, Sanchez, FA pickup, Osuna


Is it possible?

No. price is going to get 30, not 20. Navarro is not going to take a paycut from 5 to 3.5 to stay on as a backup when some team will give him a starting job. JB has 10/5 and can reject trades, so unless you're sending him to a world series favourite I'm sure he'd be happy to stay here with EE, Donaldson, Martin and the rest of his buddies. If Pompey doesn't win a starting role you can't have him on the bench at 22 years old, he needs to be playing full time, either on the Jays or in AAA. Gordon is normally a left fielder and you really haven't changed much from a team that wasn't good enough this year. outside of an insane 60 game stretch that they are unlikely to repeat, they were a somewhat average team.

 

[GoonieFace]

That's the prevailing thought of people who don't understand how win curves work, yes.

Trading Bautista or Edwin for anything but an impact ML arm (which won't happen) hurts you both now and in the future.

The problem is if the Jays do not add significant pitching this offseason I do not think they will be a true contender. With this being the last year of both EE and Bautistas contract, you run the risk of losing them for nothing. This is where Shapiro is in a tough spot. In my opinion if they do not sigficantly improve their pitching, you might as well trade them while they still hold value.

 

[theaub]

The problem is if the Jays do not add significant pitching this offseason I do not think they will be a true contender. With this being the last year of both EE and Bautistas contract, you run the risk of losing them for nothing. This is where Shapiro is in a tough spot. In my opinion if they do not sigficantly improve their pitching, you might as well trade them while they still hold value.

What is significant though? Using the generally established $32-35M base they have to get back to last year's payroll after arb/salary increases, its not like they won't have the financial means to bring Estrada back. So instead of running Price/Estrada/Dickey/Buehrle/Hutch (let's exclude Stroman since by the time he came back the Jays had 1st wrapped up anyways), you now have Stroman/Estrada/Dickey/Hutch/Sanchez. And you still have probably another $20M to spread around on either getting another mid/upper-tier SP or having some significant upgrades to the bullpen (or both, since signing a SP probably moves Sanchez back there).

 

[deletethis]

That's the prevailing thought of people who don't understand how win curves work, yes.

Trading Bautista or Edwin for anything but an impact ML arm (which won't happen) hurts you both now and in the future.

Now, of course. But in the future when neither are likely to re-sign? Come on.

 

[BertCorbeau]

An important aspect of the pitching is what Shapiro thinks of Sanchez/Osuna and if he thinks they can be quality starting pitchers

 

[Discoverer]

The problem is if the Jays do not add significant pitching this offseason I do not think they will be a true contender. With this being the last year of both EE and Bautistas contract, you run the risk of losing them for nothing. This is where Shapiro is in a tough spot. In my opinion if they do not sigficantly improve their pitching, you might as well trade them while they still hold value.

If they sign a couple mid-rotation starters, I think they'll be among the favourites. As the team stands now, they'll be going into the season with a better offense than the one that scored 127 runs more than any other team in baseball last year.

 

[deletethis]

What is significant though? Using the generally established $32-35M base they have to get back to last year's payroll after arb/salary increases, its not like they won't have the financial means to bring Estrada back. So instead of running Price/Estrada/Dickey/Buehrle/Hutch (let's exclude Stroman since by the time he came back the Jays had 1st wrapped up anyways), you now have Stroman/Estrada/Dickey/Hutch/Sanchez. And you still have probably another $20M to spread around on either getting another mid/upper-tier SP or having some significant upgrades to the bullpen (or both, since signing a SP probably moves Sanchez back there).

There isn't a free agent supermarket with an endless supply of great arms. The Blue Jays have been here before with money to spend on free agency but if the quality pitchers aren't interested in joining your team it doesn't matter that you have the money. That's one of the reasons why Alex pulled the trigger on those deals with the Marlins and Mets just to get some established major league arms who probably would never have come here in free agency.

 

[Discoverer]

Now, of course. But in the future when neither are likely to re-sign? Come on.

Why are neither likely to re-sign?

If you want to move them, you try to do so if the team somehow isn't in contention at the deadline. The current roster is too good to be moving them right now.

Plus, what incentive do they have to accept a trade at this point?

 

[theaub]

There isn't a free agent supermarket with an endless supply of great arms. The Blue Jays have been here before with money to spend on free agency but if the quality pitchers aren't interested in joining your team it doesn't matter that you have the money. That's one of the reasons why Alex pulled the trigger on those deals with the Marlins and Mets just to get some established major league arms who probably would never have come here in free agency.

You don't think pitchers are interested in joining a team that was six wins away from the World Series?

Which links back to your previous post - you trade a guy like Bautista for futures and then yes you're probably right because no one will have any clue what direction this team is going in. Toronto has historically been a very strong FA destination when the team wins.

 

[Thai jet*]

Rogers is a joke. Listened to that phony on Sportsnet, McCown, talk about how outspoken he is about his bosses, the suits, at corporate. Then he goes on and on about there being no knowing the team would do so well after the new guy was hired. Guess he figured we all forgot the Jays were 21-5 in the month between the trade deadline and the hiring. This guy is such a joke.

 

[GoonieFace]

What is significant though? Using the generally established $32-35M base they have to get back to last year's payroll after arb/salary increases, its not like they won't have the financial means to bring Estrada back. So instead of running Price/Estrada/Dickey/Buehrle/Hutch (let's exclude Stroman since by the time he came back the Jays had 1st wrapped up anyways), you now have Stroman/Estrada/Dickey/Hutch/Sanchez. And you still have probably another $20M to spread around on either getting another mid/upper-tier SP or having some significant upgrades to the bullpen (or both, since signing a SP probably moves Sanchez back there).

I'm assuming that both Price and Estrada sign elsewhere. Not sure committing $13-$15/year for Estrada is a wise move. That leaves Stroman as your only top end pitcher. Dickey eats innings but still scares me. Hutch, who knows what he is going to do. Sanchez is still unproven as a starter. This doesn't look like a championship caliber rotation without adding 2 significant starters.

 

[JS19]

You don't think pitchers are interested in joining a team that was six wins away from the World Series?

Which links back to your previous post - you trade a guy like Bautista for futures and then yes you're probably right because no one will have any clue what direction this team is going in. Toronto has historically been a very strong FA destination when the team wins.

Competitiveness is only one thing that FAs look at, you also have to consider Toronto being north of the border (they may not want to leave USA), some put a lot of value on front office and so on. You're oversimplifying free agent signings if you look solely at competitiveness.

 

[GoonieFace]

Why are neither likely to re-sign?

If you want to move them, you try to do so if the team somehow isn't in contention at the deadline. The current roster is too good to be moving them right now.

Plus, what incentive do they have to accept a trade at this point?

I think it's more likely that the Jays will not want to re-sign them. They will both command pretty big numbers, and EE is essentially a DH and Bautistas defence is declining

 

[deletethis]

You don't think pitchers are interested in joining a team that was six wins away from the World Series?

Which links back to your previous post - you trade a guy like Bautista for futures and then yes you're probably right because no one will have any clue what direction this team is going in. Toronto has historically been a very strong FA destination when the team wins.

I admire your optimism but if you look back it has been a very infrequent event. There's Roger Clemens (1997). There's A.J. Burnett(2005). I'm at a loss to come up with any others in their primes. There's Jack Morris(1992), Dave Stewart(1993) and Erik Hanson(1996) at the end of their careers.

 

[theaub]

I'm assuming that both Price and Estrada sign elsewhere. Not sure committing $13-$15/year for Estrada is a wise move. That leaves Stroman as your only top end pitcher. Dickey eats innings but still scares me. Hutch, who knows what he is going to do. Sanchez is still unproven as a starter. This doesn't look like a championship caliber rotation without adding 2 significant starters.

Well if that's the case then you have $40-45M in extra payroll. Seems to dumb to me to say 'hey this team sucks' when you've cut the payroll by 1/3 and haven't allocated it anywhere.

Competitiveness is only one thing that FAs look at, you also have to consider Toronto being north of the border (they may not want to leave USA), some put a lot of value on front office and so on. You're oversimplifying free agent signings if you look solely at competitiveness.

Pretty sure I didn't say anywhere the FA's only look at competitiveness.

Trying to sign a guy like Zimmerman/Samardzija etc and saying 'hey you're the piece that's going to put us over the top' and then immediately going out and trading the face of the franchise seems a bit contradictory.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm assuming that both Price and Estrada sign elsewhere. Not sure committing $13-$15/year for Estrada is a wise move. That leaves Stroman as your only top end pitcher. Dickey eats innings but still scares me. Hutch, who knows what he is going to do. Sanchez is still unproven as a starter. This doesn't look like a championship caliber rotation without adding 2 significant starters.

What do you consider significant? Again, this team has the offensive and defensive ability to regularly win games while giving up five runs. They don't need David Price calibre pitchers. A couple guys like Iwakuma, Kazmir, Buchholz, Anderson, Fister, Gallardo, Happ, Leake, Samardzija, etc. make this a championship calibre team.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I admire your optimism but if you look back it has been a very infrequent event. There's Roger Clemens. There's A.J. Burnett. I'm at a loss to come up with any others in their primes. There's Jack Morris and Dave Stewart at the end of their careers.

Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield, BJ Ryan, Corey Koskie, Jose Canseco, Ken Dayley.

Some guy named Russell Martin.

 

[deletethis]

I think it's more likely that the Jays will not want to re-sign them. They will both command pretty big numbers, and EE is essentially a DH and Bautistas defence is declining

Exactly. Those two are going to get more money and term than the Blue Jays whether under Shapiro's GM or Alex A. will be willing to pay out.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Exactly. Those two are going to get more money and term than the Blue Jays whether under Shapiro's GM or Alex A. will be willing to pay out.

Show your work.