Blue Jays Discussion: No More AA, Everyone is very Sad (and by Sad, I mean Mad)

[tml19]

Overshadowed by AA, Dickey's option got picked up today. Not sure if it has been mentioned.

 

[theaub]

Tbh I don't follow the baseball draft too closely (aside from the Hoffman draft, I paid a little attention to). I just knew he got drafted by us at one time. Many guys do get drafted multiple times, I'm assuming for the reason you mentioned?

Well now with the slotting its a bit different, you can try to spread the money around and hope to have extra slot money to use on some kid in the 11th round.

Back then, you just kind of did it once you felt the risk outweighed drafting an org player and maybe if the top 2-3 picks didn't sign you'd have a ton of money to throw at him.

 

[theaub]

Anyways... anyone see Shapiro locking up Stroman and Travis to Carrasco type deals this offseason? Seems to be a favorite of his (did it with Kluber too).

Travis is too much of an injury risk IMO, but I'd definitely see potential deals with Stroman, Pillar and Osuna.

 

[JS19]

havent been listening to the news on this.. SO why did he leave?

Your guess is as good as anyone's, though the idea is that he left because Shapiro was given the power to run baseball operations in conjunction with handling the business operations. This means that AA is pretty much a dummy GM with Shapiro being the real guy behind the baseball moves.

 

[hockeywiz542]

According to Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun, the Toronto Blue Jays had to find a way to keep Alex Anthopoulos.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/10/29/gm-alex-anthopoulos-leaving-blue-jays

Anthopoulos was that happy, that creative, that much ahead of so many of his colleagues. He needed to fix the Jays’ defence at shortstop and somehow got Colorado to bite on Jose Reyes, like that was easy to do. He didn’t have a left fielder who could make a play, so he brought in Ben Revere. He deepened his bullpen and his bench. Even a small move like the addition of Cliff Pennington paid off because Ryan Goins had to be moved to shortstop when Tulowitzki crashed into Kevin Pillar.

And, in doing so, the moves he didn’t make were almost as impressive as those he did. He talked trade with Cincinnati for Johnny Cueto and they wanted Marcus Stroman in exchange. At the time, Stroman hadn’t thrown a major-league inning in the season. He offered up a minor-league pitcher and said no on Stroman. Two years earlier, he had a chance to get David Price from Tampa Bay, but it would have cost Stroman and Drew Hutchison. He said no that time, as well.

You can make a bad deal like the R.A. Dickey for Noah Syndergaard and Travis D’Arnaud trade, but you can’t do that often. And you have to find a way to recover from it. That’s what the best general managers do. They make up for their mistakes. They all make them. It’s how they recover that distinguishes one from the other.

Anthopoulos turned down a five-year deal, probably something in the neighbourhood of $10 million, for what he called his dream job and couldn’t — or wouldn’t — explain why. He talked in circles about how it didn’t feel right, but wouldn’t say what didn’t feel right.

Whatever it was that was eating Alex Anthopoulos, he wasn’t about to share it, although it’s been pretty clear in recent conversations that he wanted to continue to have control of baseball matters and decision-making in that area. He felt he has earned that over time. He believed in himself, his staff, his players, his manager even.

He talked about how well he was treated by Shapiro and Ed Rogers, which sounded like the kind of lip service you pay while walking out the door.

But you don’t walk from the city you love, the team you adore, your dream job, for something small or simple or for something not feeling right. You don’t do that.

The hole had to be gaping. The disagreement large. The walk Anthopoulos has chosen to take could affect the employment of his close friends in the front office, of John Gibbons, the manager he is forever defending, of those he cares deeply about. You don’t walk away from all that unless there is something absolutely stirring — be it ownership, be it Shapiro — that tells you it’s time to leave.

 

[Swervin81]

Anyways, any names we should look at in rule 5? Starters to perhaps convert to relievers to fill out a spot in the back of that pen.

 

[Paris in Flames]

Travis is too much of an injury risk IMO, but I'd definitely see potential deals with Stroman, Pillar and Osuna.

I'm down with locking Stroman up to a 15 year deal right now but I think we should see what Osuna's career will actually be before we do anything. Is he a starter? Is he a potential All Star in the bullpen? Dude isn't even legal enough to drink so who knows.

 

[Giuseppe Sallo]

Travis is really good! May be injury prone. But you absolutely lock him up. Can't believe we traded him for Gose. Haha

 

[Canada4Gold]

Travis is really good! May be injury prone. But you absolutely lock him up. Can't believe we traded him for Gose. Haha

Travis is already under team control for 5 more years, the first couple at barely above league minimum. The other arbitration years. It isn't about signing him long term, he's already here long term, it's about possibly getting him for cheaper long term before he breaks out which is what Shapiro managed to do with Carrasco and Kluber in Cleveland.

 

[hockeywiz542]

while former blue jays general manager alex anthopoulos did bring in many of the stars responsible for the jays’ drought-ending 2015 season, he’s not leaving with any of them. All the offensive firepower that made the jays a contender will remain in place come 2016, while all contract questions facing him, like estrada and price, will remain open and unanswered for the next guy in line.

but anthopoulos isn’t leaving because of what happened in 2015, or might happen to payroll this off-season. He’s leaving because his vision for blue jays’ future and his strategy for achieving it do not line up with mark shapiro’s.

This may be hard to understand right now, what with anthopoulos’ jays making history and restoring a once great franchise to national relevance, but it was a change that had to happen. Anthopoulos’ plan, if past actions are anything to go by, is not sustainable.

Moreover, it’s a plan that only worked for three months at end of the 2015 season. It’s also a plan he tried to execute in 2013, when he made a nine-player mega trade with the marlins that, in the eyes of many baseball pundits, earned the jays the title of word series front-runners.

Instead, they lost a lot of good, young, controllable talent and finished last in the al east. That could easily have happened this year. In truth, aside from the playoff push fervour, it did. The jays didn’t win the world series, and now have a weaker, thinner talent pipeline than when they started.

if this doesn’t matter to you, or you have rose-coloured glasses for aa because he made the blue jay cap cool again, then we need to clear something up: Saying that alex anthopoulos was the reason the jays were two games from the world series, or will go back to mediocrity without him, is not only over-selling his impact on the club, it’s also missing the point.

the world series may be the grand prize for most fans, but in the baseball business side of the things, it’s about sustainability. The only thing better than making it to and winning the world series, is making it to and winning the world series year after year after year. If you’re mark shapiro, you see the jays had a chance to accomplish something sustainable from within, and missed it.

for the vast majority of jays fans, the standing rapport this year was, “to hell with next year, i want to win now!†but for shapiro, it’s going to be, “how do we keep winning?†and the answer that anthopoulos has shown as his go-to: Use the draft to gain tradable commodities, and then acquire someone else’s stars by trading said commodities.

 

[rdawg1234]

Any chance we could get greinke this off-season? I know he had us on his No-trade list a few seasons ago but a winning team can really change a players outlook.

getting price and greinke would be a dream off-season imo, obviously a very expensive one though.

 

[TF97]

Any chance we could get greinke this off-season? I know he had us on his No-trade list a few seasons ago but a winning team can really change a players outlook.

getting price and greinke would be a dream off-season imo, obviously a very expensive one though.

I can't see Greinke coming to Toronto, IMO he'll stay with the Dodgers. Getting both Greinke and Price would be near impossible, though.

 

[Daisy Jane]

it was interesting on the radio.

Phillips was sure that Shapiro + Alex would be able to work together. then he realised that it was about the shift of dynamics, it was like ah. But what he was saying is, Alex might find out that he may never find a situation like he had before because most ownership gets involved at some time, and he may realise grass isn't greener on the otherside of the fence.

 

[hoglund]

With AA gone, is it likely that Gibbons will be gone before next year too? I can't see whoever becomes the Jay's next GM wanting to keep him around.

I think Gibbons will start the season, but if there's any extended losing streak, he'll be gone.

 

[Loosie]

According to Steve Simmons

Stopped right there. Steve Simmons is not worth reading.

 

[hoglund]

Stopped right there. Steve Simmons is not worth reading.

I'll agree with you that many of his opinions and articles are not always the best, but it's good to see many opinions before judging.

 

[deletethis]

Bless Dirk Hayhurst. He's a classic contrarian. He doesn't form his opinions based on personal relationships or winning over a crowd. I wish there were more like him.

 

[King Mapes]

I can't see Greinke coming to Toronto, IMO he'll stay with the Dodgers. Getting both Greinke and Price would be near impossible, though.

Shapiro has said FA is a losing strategy so no way we get both.

 

[calcal798]

Good article by Shi Davidi that discusses the situation and how it stems a lot deeper then Shapiro, whose track record in baseball coming into this position will be dampened by the exit of AA (at the very beginning I mean). Unfortunate for Mark as he is taking a brunt of the blame from most media outlets when the blame likely lies with the relationship that has existed between Rogers (ownership) and AA, which was blocked partially by Paul Beeston. I would imagine that they somehow want to set a different process in place for the team and ensure that the GM does not have full autonomy as he might have in previous years. http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/anthopoulos-situation-an-awful-mess-for-blue-jays/

 

[Daisy Jane]

Shapiro has said FA is a losing strategy so no way we get both.

how is it a losing strategy? like in the going out there and blowing your money brains out?

 

[BuppY]

how is it a losing strategy? like in the going out there and blowing your money brains out?

More like return on investment is not worth it as most FA signees production drops after few seasons. He used WAR to illustrate it. There is an article that talks about this.

 

[King Mapes]

More like return on investment is not worth it as most FA signees production drops after few seasons. He used WAR to illustrate it. There is an article that talks about this.

He's not exactly wrong. Long term contracts on these guys are good short term but are short sighted.

 

[theaub]

Yeah but when you have an elite team on the wrong side of the aging curve the win values change.

 

[BlueForever]

I know I may get roasted for this but I am going to say it anyway. Would it be better served to trade Bautista this off season for a young pitcher and prospects. Use the money saved on Bautista on a lefty bat that can hit for average and decent power to plug into RF. Alex Gordon?

You have enough power in the lineup in EE, Tulo, Donaldson. Too one dimensional and Bautista is repetitive.

With Buerhle, Romero, Price, Izturis, Navarro, Estrada, Thole, Pennington, Smoak, Hawkins, Lowe, Kawasaki all coming off the books we will have in and around 45 million to fill our roster with this including some other lower contracts coming off the books.

If you add Bautista to that its close to 60 million. That should be enough to sign Price, Estrada and Navarro.

Im thinking Price for 20 million, Estrada for 11 million and Navarro for 3.5 million per season. So lets say that's 35 million. which leaves us 25 million left to fillout a left handed RF bat, bullpen and bench.

Sign Gordon for 12 million a season. Leaves us 13 million for bullpen and bench.

Sign 2 quality arms in bullpen (Lowe and someone else). You can probably get that done for about 7 million combined.

Leaves you 6 million for raises (Donaldson, Pillar, Hutch, Revere), and some low salary bench players.

My lineup

Revere - LF
Travis -2B
Tulowitzki - SS
Donaldson - 3B
Gordon - RF
EE -DH
Colabello - 1B
Martin - C
Pillar - CF

Bench - Goins (IF), Pompey (OF), Saunders (OF), Smoak (1B), Navarro (C)

Price
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Hutch

Hendricks, Tepera, Loup, Cecil, Lowe, Sanchez, FA pickup, Osuna


Is it possible?

 

[GoonieFace]

I kind of feel for Shapiro, he is in a tough spot. The Jays have the talent to compete once again next year, but will need to significantly improve their pitching (assuming Price,Estrada and Lowe sign elsewhere).

Based on what they have available prospect-wise to trade, the only way to significantly improve would be via free agency. This is assuming they don't want to part with Pompey, Travis etc. (which I doubt they do). Given his apparent stance on free agency, this will make things very difficult, since they would need at least 1 top end pitcher and 1 mid rotation guy.

If they are unable to improve their pitching and are not in a position to make the playoffs next August, I assume you will see Bautista and EE traded for younger MLB ready players or prospects, as I do not seeing Shapiro committing long term to either one of them. This would be a significant blow to the core of this team, and I wonder how they would proceed with the rest of the roster (Tulo and Martin especially) should this be the case.

I think they are kind of stuck in no-mans land right now, but that could all change if Rogers decides to open the wallets a little. It will be an interesting off season to say the least.