Confirmed Signing with Link: [NJD] F Ondrej Palat signs with the Devils (5 years, $6M AAV)

[Edmonton East]

It was higher at 5 years per evolving hockey

Ridiculous considering contracts given out TODAY to Strome, Trocheck, and Copp....all who play a premium position and are younger.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Like the player, not the contract. Expect it to age poorly and has a risk of becoming an albatross.

 

[Forge]

Ridiculous considering contracts given out TODAY to Strome, Trocheck, and Copp....all who play a premium position and are younger.

Dunno what to tell you. Sometimes this stuff doesn't make sense. I really don't get why he's getting more than burakovsky. But 4 hours ago I said we were going to give him 6x6. I wouldn't have signed him to this...I would have probably left it alone and worked trades instead... But this contract is 100% right in line with what I expected so I'm not really mad about that part of it

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Nice.

 

[Forge]

Like the player, not the contract. Expect it to age poorly and has a risk of becoming an albatross.

Unlikely to be an albatross (at least right now) because we have 0 long term bad contracts on the book and I expect the cap to be moving by the time year 4/5 rolls around.

But like you, love the player and probably would have passed on the contract.

I mentioned several times that I wanted to make a play on killorn instead and give Tampa the chance to resign palat

 

[mouser]

It was higher at 5 years per evolving hockey

The fun thing with Evolving Hockey is they try to evaluate what other players in similar situations signed for. There's no reverse negative feedback in the formula for how frequently teams signing the "comparable" players later come to regret them.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Palat is over rated . Playimg with Kucherov Point Stammer and he is below 0.5 ppg …. Amd the wrong side of 30

Um, over-rated is debatable. Wrong side of 30 is true. But he has 423 points in 628 regular season games and 94 in 138 playoff games, so 0.68 ppg.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Unlikely to be an albatross (at least right now) because we have 0 long term bad contracts on the book and I expect the cap to be moving by the time year 4/5 rolls around.

But like you, love the player and probably would have passed on the contract.

I mentioned several times that I wanted to make a play on killorn instead and give Tampa the chance to resign palat

The risk with these deals isn’t so much that you are then forced to trade away / bridge a younger player, but that you have a massive minus in your lineup from having to roster them. If Palat falls off a cliff within 3 years this deal becomes an albatross.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Pretty reasonable deal.

 

[SKNJD9]

1 yr too long 1m too much,

but his experience and leadership is desperately needed. Devils need vets like Palat to install a sense of culture and professionalism in the room.

Palat and Dougie will help.

 

[ViD]

So the Devils gave $6m per year for 5 years to a 31 year old 15 goal 45 point player for his great play off performance. That’s considering the Devils won’t make play offs

 

[Forge]

The fun thing with Evolving Hockey is they try to evaluate what other players in similar situations signed for. There's no reverse negative feedback in the formula for how frequently teams signing the "comparable" players later come to regret them.

Sure. But their model isn't really designed to qualify a contract as good or bad, it's just using historical data to develop the projection. And as we can see, gms clearly refuse to learn

(Having the expectation on place effectively removes me sticker shock, if you know what I mean)

 

[SI90]

Damn this isn’t a good deal. Palat will help the devils and he’ll be well liked but this deal isn’t going to age well. Good thing devils have some cap space

 

[Forge]

The risk with these deals isn’t so much that you are then forced to trade away / bridge a younger player, but that you have a massive minus in your lineup from having to roster them. If Palat falls off a cliff within 3 years this deal becomes an albatross.

We won't know whether that's a real problem until we get a look at the structure.

 

[Connor McConnor]

The AAV and term are both high but I think he helps them win more games within the next 2 years for sure. They are pretty cap flexible in the next few years and with the expected rise in the cap, this might not be that bad long term either.

I'd be happy with getting the player given what's left over after missing out on Gaudreau if I were NJ fans.

 

[Forge]

So the Devils gave $6m per year for 5 years to a 31 year old 15 goal 45 point player for his great play off performance. That’s considering the Devils won’t make play offs

I think he got a nice bump in his contract because of this for sure. You know NHL gms just love that stuff

 

[olli]

the devils have Hughes and hischier locked tf up at good prices, so even if palatable declines a lot they won't be in a horrible situation. unless of course Dougie declines as well around the same time. no other potentially bad contracts on that team as far as I know. id say this is fine and will improve them for 2-4 years but they should stay away from gambling on good players over 28 for longer term FA deals in the future.

 

[AcerComputer]

Still a better contract than Nichushkin, so I think it's a fair deal, especially considering the body of work that Palat has being the more proven player.

 

[tomd]

Now the Devils just need to go get Gibson to solidify the goaltending position and they'll have had a good summer.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So the Devils gave $6m per year for 5 years to a 31 year old 15 goal 45 point player for his great play off performance. That’s considering the Devils won’t make play offs

Both these numbers seem disingenuous.

 

[PAZ]

This is pretty bad. Palat will be worth it the first 2-3 years... but New Jersey will be at best a playoff contender.

This is the type of contract you'd expect Pittsburgh or Washington to hand out for their last hurrah, not an up and coming team like New Jersey. This also makes Perron's contract even more baffling.

 

[ViD]

Still a better contract than Nichushkin, so I think it's a fair deal, especially considering the body of work that Palat has being the more proven player.

He’s a fragile guy who plays 70-80% of the season at best , his production has been mediocre alongside elite offensive players. I guess it comes down to “intangibles” and strong post season play

 

[racamdim]

this is nonsense. Gaudreau could have easily won the Hart this season, one of the best players in the world 9.75 is less than he's worth.. I swear people here act like if you're not MacKinnonn making 5m a year its a bad contract.

Gaudreau was one of the best players in the world . . . this past (contract) year. He has decidedly not been over the balance of his career. Solid, yes. Top 20, yes. But let's not overstate things. Like pretty much every team that signs any UFA, the JG deal will look like a massive overpay in years 6-7.

Yup. If a guy like Gaudreau or Panarin wants to join your team, you find a way to make it work. There will be other Palat's out there.

Panarin has been a major disappointment at that salary. A lot of my NYR friends want to get rid of him after his piss-poor playoffs no show this year. A ridiculous overreaction, obviously. But their frustration is objectively understandable.

 

[Kimota]

Oof. Should have paid more and go for Gaudreau.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Still a better contract than Nichushkin, so I think it's a fair deal, especially considering the body of work that Palat has being the more proven player.

That's usually not the best way to predict 5+ year contracts though. Especially given the age gap.