Value of: NJ + BOS + SJ

[McJedi]

Yeah, I don't disagree that NJ probably should make a move in net as I don't trust any of Vanecek, Daws or Schmid to start a playoff series at the moment. That being said, it appears that the current acquisition cost for a goalie is sky high as the demand of teams like the Hurricanes, Oilers, Devils and Maple Leafs outpaces the supply of goalie upgrades, which is why no moves have been made so far. I expect as we approach the TDL that will change. I don't think the Devils are as desperate as the other 3 teams listed though - each of which are much, much further along in their contention windows.

Gibson would seem to make more sense for NJ as they could likely absorb a good chunk if not all of his salary to lessen the acquisition cost given Hamilton's injury opens up a ton of cap space this season. Boston has little incentive to move Ullmark unless it's for a clear upgrade at center.

I'd love to see Gibson on a team that doesn't suck so bad. You see what Dotsal had to deal with last night? Dude had like 55 saves in a 2-1 loss in OT. Lots of Duck games play out like this. Where scoring chances, shots, high danger, slot shots, etc are all wildly in favor of the other team.

Comparing Gibson's numbers to a NYI goalie that gets much more defensive support is a bit of a fools errand. You are not comparing apples to apples.

Gibson at 50% retained should focus around a 2024 1st and prospect rated below guys like Holtz/Simec/Mercer.

You'll have some.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I can't see a world in which Anaheim decides to eat +3M in dead cap for the next three seasons. More importantly, the Ducks have a lot good veterans on expiring deals in the next 1-3 years that will be very attractive deadline acquisitions, I can't imagine they are willing to tie up a retention spot on Gibson for that long when they could be shipping off guys like Henrique, Fowler, Gudas, Silfverberg, etc to the highest bidder.

And if Anaheim isn't willing to retain the max 50% then Gibson to NJ is a non-starter. They *could* carry it this season with Hamilton's LTIR, but as of right now they're less than 1M below the upper limit. Even sending back Vanecek to Anaheim, NJ would still need to dump significant salary this offseason to be cap compliant, and that's before we can even talk about extending Mercer, Toffoli, and McLeod (who is playing himself into a sizeable raise).

Anaheim is also sitting at 49 contracts, making a deal very difficult unless the Ducks send back a bunch of AHL fodder to Jersey like SJ did in the Meier deal.

Regarding Boston - even if they want Hertl *that* badly, there's no way in hell they just give one of their biggest rivals in the conference a Vezina-level starter when goaltending is clearly the only thing holding NJ back. Unless NJ gets stupid and puts Nemec on the table there's no reason for Boston to even entertain a goalie trade - and if NJ does get that desperate, it will be for Swayman, not Ullmark.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

NJ has growing pain problems on defense not just goaltending problems....Daws made big saves last night still got three by the goalie....We also need to acquire some toughness to stop all they extra shots our top players are taking game in game out....Bastian hasn't stepped up only Smith....

NJ has growing pain problems on defense not just goaltending problems....Daws made big saves last night still got three by the goalie....We also need to acquire some toughness to stop all they extra shots our top players are taking game in game out....Bastian hasn't stepped up only Smith....

 

[HugeInTheShire]

NJ has growing pain problems on defense not just goaltending problems....Daws made big saves last night still got three by the goalie....We also need to acquire some toughness to stop all they extra shots our top players are taking game in game out....Bastian hasn't stepped up only Smith....

NJ has growing pain problems on defense not just goaltending problems....Daws made big saves last night still got three by the goalie....We also need to acquire some toughness to stop all they extra shots our top players are taking game in game out....Bastian hasn't stepped up only Smith....

No idea why Bastian is in the lineup every game, he brings nothing to the table at all. Yet Ruff will bench Holtz if he forgets to say "bless you" when someone sneezes

 

[My3Sons]

NJ isn't going to change its team structure to shoe horn in a goalie who is good but not great. Mercer and Nemec aren't getting moved. NJ has limited cap until after 2025 season so guys like Gibson or Markstrom only work with retention. As others have noted, the average age of the NJ defense right now is middle school. A goalie isn't the cure all for guys who could still be in college having to carry the burden on defense for NJ.

 

[Hookslide]

I can't see a world in which Anaheim decides to eat +3M in dead cap for the next three seasons. More importantly, the Ducks have a lot good veterans on expiring deals in the next 1-3 years that will be very attractive deadline acquisitions, I can't imagine they are willing to tie up a retention spot on Gibson for that long when they could be shipping off guys like Henrique, Fowler, Gudas, Silfverberg, etc to the highest bidder.

And if Anaheim isn't willing to retain the max 50% then Gibson to NJ is a non-starter. They *could* carry it this season with Hamilton's LTIR, but as of right now they're less than 1M below the upper limit. Even sending back Vanecek to Anaheim, NJ would still need to dump significant salary this offseason to be cap compliant, and that's before we can even talk about extending Mercer, Toffoli, and McLeod (who is playing himself into a sizeable raise).

Anaheim is also sitting at 49 contracts, making a deal very difficult unless the Ducks send back a bunch of AHL fodder to Jersey like SJ did in the Meier deal.

Regarding Boston - even if they want Hertl *that* badly, there's no way in hell they just give one of their biggest rivals in the conference a Vezina-level starter when goaltending is clearly the only thing holding NJ back. Unless NJ gets stupid and puts Nemec on the table there's no reason for Boston to even entertain a goalie trade - and if NJ does get that desperate, it will be for Swayman, not Ullmark.

You have the Boston part of half right, no to trading a NJ need to them, and if they were Ullmark is the one traded.

 

[Smitty426]

No idea why Bastian is in the lineup every game, he brings nothing to the table at all. Yet Ruff will bench Holtz if he forgets to say "bless you" when someone sneezes

Dickinson looks good in Chi. Watched him tonight in @ msg. We get him tomorrow. Reminds me of Rico a little bit. Trenin might be an idea, and I still like Duhaime from Minny because of his motor. Bastian had a good game last night but he's been meh

 

[Smitty426]

Dickinson looks good in Chi. Watched him tonight in @ msg. We get him tomorrow. Reminds me of Rico a little bit. Trenin might be an idea, and I still like Duhaime from Minny because of his motor. Bastian had a good game last night but he's been meh

I'm sold, what's the ask Chicago

 

[CanadienShark]

I'll accept if you make a good offer.
I'll decline if you make a bad offer.
You made no offer.

 

[Mrfenn92]

I'm sold, what's the ask Chicago

My guess is they’ll ask for a first. But accept a second which his value probably is.
Not sure if he’s one of the vets their looking to extend.

 

[CanadienShark]

So Boston give up Ullmark, Forbort , 1st and top prospect and NJ gives up nothing? That doesn’t seem right.

Nor does giving up Ullmark + Forbort for Hertl. Bruins make out like bandits in that situation. No way NJ alone is giving up enough value there to make it worthwhile for SJ.

 

[Coffees]

The biggest piece to San Jose comes from Boston in this framework. At least a 1st and a prospect of merit.

Wow

 

[Zippy316]

Boston: Hertl
NJD: Ullmark + Forbort
SJ: picks and prospects with the biggest piece coming from NJD

SJ continues the tank and gets more young pieces.

NJ uses their found LTIR money to add a top goalie and add some veteran help to their good but too young D group.

Boston gets their #1C

Is this a framework worth hashing out?

Solid framework but needs a little tweaking. To go team by team:

Devils - Fills their needs very well. Not sure if Forbort would be wanted, but he would be a veteran improvement over Bahl. Probably can keep him out of this deal. Also not sure what they would give up in a deal after depleting a lot of their extra assets in the Meier deal. They have some solid assets - Holtz, Casey, Gritsyuk - but not sure they are looking to give up any of them. Don’t think guys like Clarke/Foote move the needle at all either.

Bruins - I would say they win a Hertl for Ullmark deal based on positional value. Probably need to add a first. Also not adding a goalie would leave a huge hole beyond Swayman. They shouldn’t touch VV but maybe they like Kahkonen.

Sharks - Not sure what the Devils would be able to give up to secure this deal.

To Boston : Hertl + Kahkonen
To NJ: Ullmark
To San Jose: Kallgren (roster dump) + NJ assets + BOS 1st

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Solid framework but needs a little tweaking. To go team by team:

Devils - Fills their needs very well. Not sure if Forbort would be wanted, but he would be a veteran improvement over Bahl. Probably can keep him out of this deal. Also not sure what they would give up in a deal after depleting a lot of their extra assets in the Meier deal. They have some solid assets - Holtz, Casey, Gritsyuk - but not sure they are looking to give up any of them. Don’t think guys like Clarke/Foote move the needle at all either.

Bruins - I would say they win a Hertl for Ullmark deal based on positional value. Probably need to add a first. Also not adding a goalie would leave a huge hole beyond Swayman. They shouldn’t touch VV but maybe they like Kahkonen.

Sharks - Not sure what the Devils would be able to give up to secure this deal.

To Boston : Hertl + Kahkonen
To NJ: Ullmark
To San Jose: Kallgren (roster dump) + NJ assets + BOS 1st

The closest thing New Jersey has to make it work for the Sharks is probably going to be Seamus Casey. Holtz is going to be more valuable to New Jersey than he would to San Jose as a cheap NHL contributor. Gritsyuk also just isn't going to be valued that much by the Sharks as a winger especially when they already have a Gushchin in the AHL who is knocking on the door himself. Wingers is something the Sharks have plenty of organizational depth on for a rebuild.

But Casey is obviously someone that New Jersey would understandably balk at including in the deal. I think they ought to be okay with it if it was Swayman but probably not Ullmark.

 

[wintersej]

Nor does giving up Ullmark + Forbort for Hertl. Bruins make out like bandits in that situation. No way NJ alone is giving up enough value there to make it worthwhile for SJ.

Oh for sure. The hope is that the Ullmark return gets them more than halfway there, though.

 

[wintersej]

Solid framework but needs a little tweaking. To go team by team:

Devils - Fills their needs very well. Not sure if Forbort would be wanted, but he would be a veteran improvement over Bahl. Probably can keep him out of this deal. Also not sure what they would give up in a deal after depleting a lot of their extra assets in the Meier deal. They have some solid assets - Holtz, Casey, Gritsyuk - but not sure they are looking to give up any of them. Don’t think guys like Clarke/Foote move the needle at all either.

Bruins - I would say they win a Hertl for Ullmark deal based on positional value. Probably need to add a first. Also not adding a goalie would leave a huge hole beyond Swayman. They shouldn’t touch VV but maybe they like Kahkonen.

Sharks - Not sure what the Devils would be able to give up to secure this deal.

To Boston : Hertl + Kahkonen
To NJ: Ullmark
To San Jose: Kallgren (roster dump) + NJ assets + BOS 1st

So Bussi down in Providence is ready and has to go thru waivers next year. So Bruins wouldn’t want a goalie back.

Another riff on the framework…

Bos: Hertl + Foote
NJ: Ullmark
SJ: NJ 1st, Lysell, Gryz or Forbort, Geekie

I would assume SJ would flip Forbort to a team at the deadline that needs PK help. And think they would try to re-sign Gryz, though.

Geekie is there just to give them a cheap warm body.

 

[Zippy316]

So Bussi down in Providence is ready and has to go thru waivers next year. So Bruins wouldn’t want a goalie back.

Another riff on the framework…

Bos: Hertl + Foote
NJ: Ullmark
SJ: NJ 1st, Lysell, Gryz or Forbort, Geekie

I would assume SJ would flip Forbort to a team at the deadline that needs PK help. And think they would try to re-sign Gryz, though.

Geekie is there just to give them a cheap warm body.

That could work.

Kahkonen is a pending UFA. Would give the Bruins a backup to end the year, potentially he becomes 3G in the playoffs/post-deadline if they want Bussi to get in games. Kallgren also likely goes to San Jose just because Devils would have too many bodies in net. VV/Ullmark in NHL, Schmid/Daws in AHL, Kinkaid in Chicago, and Brennan in ECHL.

Breaks down to:

BOS: Hertl + Foote + Kahkonen for Ullmark + Geekie + Forbort/Grzelyck + Lysell

NJD: Ullmark for Foote + Kallgren + 1st

San Jose: Hertl + Kakhonen for Geekie + Forbort/Gryzelyck + Lysell + Kallgren + 1st

Maybe it’s not so bad. I just don’t see why Boston does it though unless they have depth options to replace Geekie and Forbort/Gryzelyck.

 

[CanadienShark]

That could work.

Kahkonen is a pending UFA. Would give the Bruins a backup to end the year, potentially he becomes 3G in the playoffs/post-deadline if they want Bussi to get in games. Kallgren also likely goes to San Jose just because Devils would have too many bodies in net. VV/Ullmark in NHL, Schmid/Daws in AHL, Kinkaid in Chicago, and Brennan in ECHL.

Breaks down to:

BOS: Hertl + Foote + Kahkonen for Ullmark + Geekie + Forbort/Grzelyck + Lysell

NJD: Ullmark for Foote + Kallgren + 1st

San Jose: Hertl + Kakhonen for Geekie + Forbort/Gryzelyck + Lysell + Kallgren + 1st

Maybe it’s not so bad. I just don’t see why Boston does it though unless they have depth options to replace Geekie and Forbort/Gryzelyck.

I can't speak for all Sharks fans, but my interest level in that deal is very low.

 

[wintersej]

The closest thing New Jersey has to make it work for the Sharks is probably going to be Seamus Casey. Holtz is going to be more valuable to New Jersey than he would to San Jose as a cheap NHL contributor. Gritsyuk also just isn't going to be valued that much by the Sharks as a winger especially when they already have a Gushchin in the AHL who is knocking on the door himself. Wingers is something the Sharks have plenty of organizational depth on for a rebuild.

But Casey is obviously someone that New Jersey would understandably balk at including in the deal. I think they ought to be okay with it if it was Swayman but probably not Ullmark.

Ok this is the post I was waiting for knowing that SJ doesn’t want winger prospects helps! What about this:

BOS: Hertl + Foote brothers
NJD: Ullmark
SJ: NJ 1st + BOS 1st + Gryz

I chose Gryz because I think SJ would want to bring him back, but he is there for $$$ reasons not for added trade value. Boston might try to find somewhere where they could get value instead. A 1st, a number 1 goalie and a top 4D isn’t a little bit for Boston to give up.

I think the problem is that NJ fans don’t seem to want to pay a 1st plus 2nd or 3rd tier prospect for Ullmark. So it’s probably all moot.

 

[Zippy316]

I can't speak for all Sharks fans, but my interest level in that deal is very low.

Yeah that’s entirely fair.

I think NJ/BOS could meet the value for Hertl, but nothing that convinces the Sharks to do a deal. The pieces that Sharks would want, the Devils are no longer in a position to deal after the Meier deal.

Is there even a reason for the Sharks to move Hertl right now? The only argument a deal like this could work is if they wanted to move him and his contract ends up being a limiting factor.

 

[Zippy316]

Ok this is the post I was waiting for knowing that SJ doesn’t want winger prospects helps! What about this:

BOS: Hertl + Foote brothers
NJD: Ullmark
SJ: NJ 1st + BOS 1st + Gryz

I chose Gryz because I think SJ would want to bring him back, but he is there for $$$ reasons not for added trade value. Boston might try to find somewhere where they could get value instead. A 1st, a number 1 goalie and a top 4D isn’t a little bit for Boston to give up.

I think the problem is that NJ fans don’t seem to want to pay a 1st plus 2nd or 3rd tier prospect for Ullmark. So it’s probably all moot.

Devils are in a weird position where they need a goalie but they shouldn’t trade the pieces to get it done.

For one, they gutted a lot of their prospect depth on the Meier deal. What they have left is either on the NHL team, middling prospects without much value like Clarke and Foote, or a few high upside pieces like Casey, Gritsyuk, Hameenaho that they likely want to hold onto. There also aren’t any expendable pieces on the NHL roster except for guys with no value like Bastian and Vanecek.

On top of that, this year very much seems to be a transitional year to get Luke, Holtz, Nemec, and Bahl acclimated to the NHL. Last years team was a much deeper and well rounded team, this one has a lot of holes aside from the goaltending.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Ok this is the post I was waiting for knowing that SJ doesn’t want winger prospects helps! What about this:

BOS: Hertl + Foote brothers
NJD: Ullmark
SJ: NJ 1st + BOS 1st + Gryz

I chose Gryz because I think SJ would want to bring him back, but he is there for $$$ reasons not for added trade value. Boston might try to find somewhere where they could get value instead. A 1st, a number 1 goalie and a top 4D isn’t a little bit for Boston to give up.

I think the problem is that NJ fans don’t seem to want to pay a 1st plus 2nd or 3rd tier prospect for Ullmark. So it’s probably all moot.

I don't really blame New Jersey for that. Ullmark is somewhat of a gamble. Only one extra year and extending a 32 year old goalie, even with his remarkable consistency, carries significant risk for the cost of a 1st early in your competitive window. From the Sharks' side on this one, these two 1st round picks aren't a huge motivator to get a deal done now either. The New Jersey pick will either be a 2024 1st round pick because they didn't reach the ECF's or a 2025 1st round pick because they did and have to give the Sharks that pick as a condition for the Meier trade. The Boston pick will be a 2025 1st round pick since they moved the 2024 pick to Detroit already and it's only top ten protected. The picks the Sharks get from this trade are likely either 17-28 in 2024 or 17-32 in 2025 along with 17-32 in 2025 from Boston. Valuable chips to a good degree, no doubt, but waiting a year to see progress on getting rid of Hertl is hard to see the team being good with. I think they'd probably prefer to have a Boston player with an extra year to at least have something to contribute now w/o asking a center they may not have confidence in to take over the spot. But that's likely a minor detail in the grand scheme of this deal.

 

[dredeye]

One could argue that Hertl and Ullmark are relative equivalents for their position (SJ might argue Hertl has been good a lot longer than Ullmark. Boston could argue the relevance of 7 years ago compared to today.) But positional value is in SJs favor. So an add by Boston seems appropriate. But what he described was too much. A first or equivalent prospect seems appropriate from Boston (not a first AND a prospect).

But the rest of the picks/prospects should be coming from NJ and going to SJ.

Compliments on the trade idea. Hertl to Boston makes sense based on the Pastrnak connection. The motivation for NJ is there. The biggest potential snag is whether SJ feels it receives enough once NJ decides what they’re willing to give up.

Boston walks away. Jersey is getting the current vezina winner and a solid d. They can give whatever the Sharks need. There's no reason for the Bruins to do this trade as it stands. Our goalie tandem is our strength. In the off season it made sense but Jersey fans seem unanimous that Ullmark wasn't worth much of anything.

 

[Guttersniped]

No idea why Bastian is in the lineup every game, he brings nothing to the table at all. Yet Ruff will bench Holtz if he forgets to say "bless you" when someone sneezes

Holtz has played in all 37 games this season while Bastian has played fewer minutes than him in his 35 GP. I don’t even see how they’re connected.

Bastian has been getting in part because we always have several injured forwards.

 

[Groo]

Ok this is the post I was waiting for knowing that SJ doesn’t want winger prospects helps! What about this:

BOS: Hertl + Foote brothers
NJD: Ullmark
SJ: NJ 1st + BOS 1st + Gryz

I chose Gryz because I think SJ would want to bring him back, but he is there for $$$ reasons not for added trade value. Boston might try to find somewhere where they could get value instead. A 1st, a number 1 goalie and a top 4D isn’t a little bit for Boston to give up.

I think the problem is that NJ fans don’t seem to want to pay a 1st plus 2nd or 3rd tier prospect for Ullmark. So it’s probably all moot.

Actually, both top 6 RW players/ prospects are non existent in the Sharks organization.