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Prospect Info: Nils Lundkvist: Part II

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Ola said:
Luleå have taken like 30 of the last 34 pts. Given up 11 goals in the last 11 games, OTOH just scored 33. Tight games and they give nothing away.

One thing though, Nils is not dominating in any way. But playing really good for a U20 player. However, don’t expect to see a kid that is flyin all over the ice and being a threat with his speed. He is playing a calm and collected game. Not a ton of finesse.
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If he's putting up all those points without needing to be dominant offensively, isn't that a good thing?
 
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Copying my post from the general prospects discussion thread:

Here’s a bit of what Pronman wrote about Lundkvist in his today’s post in The Athletic:

This season, Lundkvist is on pace to be the best scoring teenage defenseman in SHL history by a wide margin. He’s having an absolutely monster season. When I’ve watched Lulea, it was clear I underrated his skill and speed. He’s an excellent skater with a good but not great skill level, but his hockey IQ is near elite, as well. At the international level he hasn’t been amazing, but as discussed last year, that’s why you watch the club games.
 
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Was looking back at some notes I posted prior to the 2018 NHL draft, and immediately following. I think a lot of it still holds true:

  • Lundkvist is intriguing. Moments where he grabs your attention and you start to see skills that rank right up there with the top of the draft. The ability to push the envelope, create the plays, and generate the offense.
  • Can he be that guy consistently? Can he potentially take over a game? That’s the question for teams and a deciding factor as to whether he goes in the late teens or in the 30s.
  • The defense needs work, he’s going to have to learn to pick his spots, the size and strength will need time. But, and this is a big but, if you think this is a kid who is just starting to put it all together and his biggest knock is a level of unfamiliarity at the start of the season, he’s a potential homerun swing.
  • Lundkvist is the another tantilizing talent. He gambles and he’s going to have to learn to pick his spots. But he also showed people what could be — and that’s a style that is fairly similar to, but not nearly as developed as what you see from guys like Dahlin and Boqvist.
 
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Pronman mentioned Lundkvist is his column today. Players he got wrong.

Nils Lundkvist, N.Y. Rangers
Drafted: No. 28 overall in 2018
I watched Lundkvist a lot in his draft season, between live and video viewings at the J20, SHL and international U18 levels. I really studied him. I saw an undersized defenseman with a great two-way brain, but I thought he lacked anything special in the speed or skill department. He had looked good versus men and in junior club play, but overall I thought he wasn’t anything special and a mediocre NHL prospect. A year later, my opinion didn’t change much. He was just OK at the world juniors, decent/fine in the SHL but still lacked a wow factor. I knew numerous NHL scouts who shared this opinion, but also some loved the player – and obviously the Rangers loved him as they made him a first-round pick.

This season, Lundkvist is on pace to be the best scoring teenage defenseman in SHL history by a wide margin. He’s having an absolutely monster season. When I’ve watched Lulea, it was clear I underrated his skill and speed. He’s an excellent skater with a good but not great skill level, but his hockey IQ is near elite, as well. At the international level he hasn’t been amazing, but as discussed last year, that’s why you watch the club games.

The aforementioned biases against small defensemen and toward high-end skill defensemen instead of the elite IQ/feet type of defensemen contributed, in part, to why I underrated recent small, less flashy defensemen in the draft, such as Lundkvist (and to lesser extents players like Rasmus Sandin and Ville Heinola, although I wouldn’t call them elite skaters). Lundkvist hasn’t played an NHL game yet, and he may not be some top 10-pick caliber prospect, but he’s a very good prospect, and his evaluation clearly was way off. I’ve since changed my philosophy on this matter to more highly value players with his skill set.
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It is going to be interesting what happens to the Rangers D as a whole. I cannot see a case where DeAgelo, Fox and Lundkvist are ALL a part of the future. Gun to head, I would say that Fox is here long term. And if DeAngelo forces Gorton & JD's hand by having the type of season that he is pacing for, that may well leave Lundqvist out. Then he becomes the prospect that gets traded when the Rangers are thinking about the playoffs. But that is still several years away. And, I believe, a lot depends on how DeAngelo performs.
 
I think a lot depends on the range ADA finds this year and next. If he's scoring 50-60 points, that's a tough player to replace --- even with Fox and Lundkvist hitting on their potential.

It's hard to say who is a keeper at this point --- time is a tricky mistress.

What seems so certain today, appears completely different a few years later. Fox, ADA and Lundkvist will likely be no exception to that concept.
 
Barnaby said:
Whose the better prospect between Lundqvist and Sandin ?
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To me its super close. Sandin is almost at a point a game pace in the AHL. Wanted him at the draft instead of Nils but would be happy with either today.
 
Barnaby said:
Whose the better prospect between Lundqvist and Sandin ?
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I'd say they are pretty close.

I think Sandin probably has/had the head start on development out of the gate; I think Lundkvist might have a slightly longer runway for further development ahead of him.

I think the offense has somewhat come more naturally for Sandin to this point, but I think Lundkvist's transitional game is a bit better.
 
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Ola said:
One thing though, Nils is not dominating in any way. But playing really good for a U20 player. However, don’t expect to see a kid that is flyin all over the ice and being a threat with his speed. He is playing a calm and collected game. Not a ton of finesse.
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Steady, calm, collected, using his linemates well...sounds like he's on the fast track to becoming NHL ready. Finesse tends to not work at the NHL level unless you're an exceptional talent, defenders and forwards are too good at limiting time and space for that so good to hear he's getting by using other attributes that translate over well!
 
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romba said:
Steady, calm, collected, using his linemates well...sounds like he's on the fast track to becoming NHL ready. Finesse tends to not work at the NHL level unless you're an exceptional talent, defenders and forwards are too good at limiting time and space for that so good to here he's getting by using other attributes that translate over well!
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Yeah, I agree for sure, but I am just afraid of the back lash if this kids comes over to the AHL next season and people expect to see the best U20 D ever to come out from Sweden.

MDZ had 37 pts in 80 games in the NHL his D+1 year. Pts can pile up easy for a talented young D who plays well even against men if they get a big role offensively. Many of those pts can come from just moving the puck around, and some of course from great plays, but the game is about so much more.

In the end, we can’t look at pts and draw any conclusions. NL is playing great and coming along really well. But it’s not like he stands out with his skill instantly when he hits the ice, like Erik Karlsson, Vic Hedman or Rasmus Dahlin did.

If there is anything I wish NL had that he doesn’t have it’s that explosive electric skating.
 
Ola said:
Yeah, I agree for sure, but I am just afraid of the back lash if this kids comes over to the AHL next season and people expect to see the best U20 D ever to come out from Sweden.

In the end, we can’t look at pts and draw any conclusions. NL is playing great and coming along really well. But it’s not like he stands out with his skill instantly when he hits the ice, like Erik Karlsson, Vic Hedman or Rasmus Dahlin did.
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I think this is a very real aspect, and I completely agree with it.

I do worry that some of the offensive numbers could take expectations into choppy waters.

Obviously, I'd love for Lundkvist to come in at 21 and have the same impact as a guy like Fox, but that's not necessarily a given. I'm okay letting this play out a little longer.
 
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Edge said:
I think a lot depends on the range ADA finds this year and next. If he's scoring 50-60 points, that's a tough player to replace --- even with Fox and Lundkvist hitting on their potential.

It's hard to say who is a keeper at this point --- time is a tricky mistress.

What seems so certain today, appears completely different a few years later. Fox, ADA and Lundkvist will likely be no exception to that concept.
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What if ADA hits 50-60 but Fox hits 40 and is 3 years younger and a rookie? and it's not a crazy far fetched scenario considering that Fox is on pace for 45 points and DeAngelo on pace for 60+
 
Levitate said:
What if ADA hits 50-60 but Fox hits 40 and is 3 years younger and a rookie? and it's not a crazy far fetched scenario considering that Fox is on pace for 45 points and DeAngelo on pace for 60+
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In my head, I think Fox is probably the most likely keeper and that the debate, at some point, would come down to ADA vs. Lundkvist.

In that scenario, which I think it still a season away at this point, factors would include:

1. The player you know vs. the player you think you know

2. More offensive upside vs. more balance

3. Potential returns if either guy was traded

But, I think we're still at the stage where we're projecting, rather than pointing to actual posted numbers. So that's why I am hesitant to go too far down this path and think a lot can happen over the next 6-18 months.

But circling back to the ADA portion of my comment, I think his production level is going to play a big role.

If he's indeed a 60 point defenseman, that's potentially going to have different impact than if he's 45-50 point defenseman. If he's the latter, and Fox is more or less in that same range, but with better defensive play, I think the odds of ADA being moved go up.

If he's the former, and that gap is 15 or so points, well that might be a little harder to make up the difference.
 
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Levitate said:
What if ADA hits 50-60 but Fox hits 40 and is 3 years younger and a rookie? and it's not a crazy far fetched scenario considering that Fox is on pace for 45 points and DeAngelo on pace for 60+
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It's possible but Fox doesn't need a new contract for 2 more years so they have him locked in at a reasonable. That would mean Fox would be up for a contract when Trouba is entering his 4th year with the year.
 
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It's nice to see the Rangers drafting players with super high, hockey IQ's again. DeAngelo is average at best defensively IQ wise. His offensive hockey IQ is really high. After years of watcing low IQ players like Kreider, Dubinsky, Hagelin, Nash, etc.... it's nice to see high level thinkers fill out this team. Panarin, Kakko, Fox, Zibanejad etc....
 
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