All of this is based on even strength production. I did not bother to look at 5v4 production.
Kris Letang has the most points/60 mins of guys who play major minutes. His QoC is decent. He's going to need to put up lots of points, which is feasible. At this point he deserves consideration.
Zdeno Chara plays the toughest competition night in and night out. His points per game trails Dougie Hamilton among B's d-men. I think Chara has a good chance to be a finalist, he can help himself if he can improve his point production.
Karlsson has by far the best Corsi for guys who play decent competition. Slava Voynov for the Kings is not far behind him. Voynov is also nipping at Drew Doughty's heels as far as QoC for the Kings. Voynov destroys Doughty in points per 60 mins, I liked the way Slava played in the playoffs last year, he's a very good young d-man. I don't think he'll get much Norris hype, Doughty is the more likely member of the Kings to get recognition. But it's worth keeping your eye on Voynov.
Oliver Ekman Larsson with Phoenix is playing top pairing mins, the toughest competition and is putting up good offensive production. He clearly deserves consideration.
Alex Pietrangelo plays big mins against good competition but I think Shattenkirk could draw some attention from Pietrangelo in much the same way Suter and Weber probably impacted one another when they were in Nashville.
Shea Weber plays the toughest competition for Nashville but generates no offense. That could keep him from being a finalist this season. I think Ryan Suter probably has a better shot at being a finalist than Weber, he plays the toughest competition for the Wild and is putting up solid offensive production as far as points/60 mins.
Chara, Doughty and Weber are guys who could be recognized due to their quality of competition but are not generating much offense. And we all know the Norris is an award that is geared heavily towards offensive production.
Young guns who deserve consideration are Letang, Voynov and Ekman-Larsson. They are playing solid competition and generating good offensive production 5v5. I'd probably give Ekman-Larsson the nod over both guys but I am very impressed with Voynov.
IMO Ryan Suter would be the favorite right now. The Wings wanted him because he reminded them of Lidstrom. He plays top competition night in and night out and he has very solid offensive production 5v5.