Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

[Archijerej]

I want to be fair so I used his stats from his good rookie season until his third last season where he got 60 pts in 70 games, excluding his last two abysmal seasons for his standards. He was a career pro rated 70 pt player. And this was on one of the most dominant teams in recent memory. This may be a bold claim but if Suzuki were on a good, not even a great, team he'd probably have put up 70 to 80 pts in his last few seasons. He's on pace for around PPG while playing the best defence on the team if you believe in advanced analytics, while also being pretty good on faceoffs. Sounds like a great no. 1 to me

I think you can't evaluate Toews in a vacuum. Chicago had a genuine, play-driving superstar in Kane. They needed a center who could keep up with him and be good at all those little things centers do. Toews was a perfect piece of the puzzle.

Suzuki's situation is different, until we have a star winger.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Let me also add that after that his production got worse and when he again had a near PPG season again in 2018-19, his most played with linemate was coincidentally Patrick kane

There were a lot of miles on him. And he ran into some kind of crazy illness around then.

He was a hell of a player. I remember him standing in the crease battling Chara in the finals. Didn’t give up an inch.

I think Toews is somewhat overrated. I didn’t consider him a top 100 player of all time. But he’s a legit HOFer and a beast.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I think you can't evaluate Toews in a vacuum. Chicago had a genuine, play-driving superstar in Kane. They needed a center who could keep up with him and be good at all those little things centers do. Toews was a perfect piece of the puzzle.

Suzuki's situation is different, until we have a star winger.

That was my point. The circumstances surrounding Toews were much more favourable. And we are his production drop off every time kane isn't his most frequent linemate

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You're right and wrong. In his first 6 seasons Patrick Kane overwhelmingly played the most time with him and it's not even close. After that yes you're correct

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20132014&thruseason=20132014&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8473604

Even if this is true, both were young players and Toews is putting up better numbers than Suzkui at 19 years old. It’s a terrible comparison. He was a much better, more complete player.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Even if this is true, both were young players and Toews is putting up better numbers than Suzkui at 19 years old. It’s a terrible comparison. He was a much better, more complete player.

Again you can't just gloss over the fact that he was playing with a generational talent. I'll give it to you, he played better in his entry level years. He also looked like a man and played on a better team. But I'll give you that one. Now explain the rest

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Again you can't just gloss over the fact that he was playing with a generational talent. I'll give it to you, he played better in his entry level years. He also looked like a man and played on a better team. But I'll give you that one. Now explain the rest

Explain what?

He was a flat out better player.

 

[Redux91]

Caufield has had a poor year. I don’t think there is an excuse. Does he need one? Can’t we just say he had a bad year? Or do we have to find an excuse for him? Why do we need to look for excuses?

Up until now he’s been Uber consistent. This year he wasn’t. When I see a player who puts up 48 goals in his first 82 under MSL including part of his rookie year, that gives me faith that he can score at an elite level. He’s proven that he can do it. He’s been elite his whole life. And so I epxoect him to produce. He didn’t do that this year.

I can give him a mulligan because the underlying numbers are good and I expect him to produce again next year. But if he doesn’t? If hes healthy and puts up 25 goals next year do you think I’ll argue that he’s an elite winger going forward? I’m telling you now, I won’t. Top players are CONSISTENT. You can have on off year but if you aren’t consistently putting up great numbers then I don’t see how you can argue yourself to be elite. I think CC has elite talent but like any player - he has to prove it.

Same thing with Suzuki. I expected him to produce more than he has. To date he hasn’t done it. So my expectations on him have fallen. I’m hopeful that he can find the next gear and maybe this is it. Maybe Slaf has helped him find it - I don’t really care if he’s leeching points off another player or not. But if you want to be a first line center produce like one.

I demand you give Suzuki a mulligan also for last year then lol

(And come on dude, don't start calling Suzuki and Slaf connecting as linemates 'leeching points off a guy'..)

If ANYbody is leeching points off of guys this year
It's Matheson lol

 

[Archijerej]

Since Koivu is often brought up in this kind of discussions, I have to say I have no trouble imagining even post-injury Koivu as the top center on a Stanley Cup winning team. His playoff and international track record is clear enough evidence that he could keep up with the best of them. He just couldn't be relied on to be the best FORWARD on a team. I have no doubt that a Selanne - Koivu - skilled grinder line would be one of the better lines in the NHL.

It's going to be the same story with Suzuki I think.

 

[Captain Mountain]

The only consistency problem that he has is the support around him.

in the 300 games since his rookie season he’s been a consistent 60+ point player, and improving in other aspects - faceoffs, defensive play, etc.

He’s been the team’s only constant over that period.

Nobody’s buying arguments to the contrary when you cherry pick a few games here and there.

Its not just that.

Most players have consistency issue. And if one were to level a complaint against Suzuki is that he's a low-volume player (especially at 5v5). He's more defense-minded naturally and is happy going for quality on offense at the expense of low quantity. That naturally leads to consistency issues.

A fair counterpoint is him being the team's only constant (he was better at generating offense when Montreal had Danault and Kotkaniemi down the middle consistently as well) and that he's good at creating quality chances, but its something to keep an eye on going forward.

Caufield has had a poor year. I don’t think there is an excuse. Does he need one? Can’t we just say he had a bad year? Or do we have to find an excuse for him? Why do we need to look for excuses?

Up until now he’s been Uber consistent. This year he wasn’t. When I see a player who puts up 48 goals in his first 82 under MSL including part of his rookie year, that gives me faith that he can score at an elite level. He’s proven that he can do it. He’s been elite his whole life. And so I epxoect him to produce. He didn’t do that this year.

I can give him a mulligan because the underlying numbers are good and I expect him to produce again next year. But if he doesn’t? If hes healthy and puts up 25 goals next year do you think I’ll argue that he’s an elite winger going forward? I’m telling you now, I won’t. Top players are CONSISTENT. You can have on off year but if you aren’t consistently putting up great numbers then I don’t see how you can argue yourself to be elite. I think CC has elite talent but like any player - he has to prove it.

Same thing with Suzuki. I expected him to produce more than he has. To date he hasn’t done it. So my expectations on him have fallen. I’m hopeful that he can find the next gear and maybe this is it. Maybe Slaf has helped him find it - I don’t really care if he’s leeching points off another player or not. But if you want to be a first line center produce like one.

Caufield is having the best season of his career and has significantly improved his all-around play. I get wanting more goals, but strong underlying numbers and showing a more complete game and being at a near 30 goal pace while being one of the unluckiest shooters in the NHL does not strike me as a poor year. Maybe disappointing, but there's been more good and bad from Caufield.

I think your expectations may be to high for where the team is right now. Because even most elite guys don't find that kind of consistency this soon on teams this bad. That's more generational or near generational guys.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I demand you give Suzuki a mulligan also for last year then lol

(And come on dude, don't start calling Suzuki and Slaf connecting as linemates 'leeching points off a guy'..)

If ANYbody is leeching points off of guys this year
It's Matheson lol

Sorry, I’m not trying to say he’s leeching off Slaf. I’m just saying even if he was I wouldn’t care. I just want him to rack up some points.

For the record, I think Suzuki has been our best and most consistent player this year. Nobody is really close.

Slaf is our most improved and I love Guehle and Montie’s seasons. Caufield is a tragic figure. His underlying play is better than ever but the production isn’t there. I just don’t want him to turn into Chris Higgins because if he does I will die.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Its not just that.

Most players have consistency issue. And if one were to level a complaint against Suzuki is that he's a low-volume player (especially at 5v5). He's more defense-minded naturally and is happy going for quality on offense at the expense of low quantity. That naturally leads to consistency issues.

A fair counterpoint is him being the team's only constant (he was better at generating offense when Montreal had Danault and Kotkaniemi down the middle consistently as well) and that he's good at creating quality chances, but its something to keep an eye on going forward.

No player is going to be consistent every single night. But when the season begins you have an idea of where they’ll finish.

Suzuki has been consistent too. He’s a consistent 60 plus point scorer. But I always thought he should be better than that. If he’s not, I’d really prefer we get another number one center.

 

[Archijerej]

His PPG and faceoff % by year:

19/20 - 0.58 / 46.3%
20/21 - 0.73 / 44.0%
21/22 - 0.74 / 49.6%
22/23 - 0.80 / 47.3%
23/24 - 0.96 / 53.4%

He has managed to improve his points per game every year and greatly improve in the faceoff dot. The kid is still only 24, continues to get better and will hopefully be surrounded by more talent in the future... it is hard to put a ceiling on him because he continues to exceed expectations.

There is no such thing as "still only 24".

Forwards usually peak at that age.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Every #1 would be better suited to the 2nd line. Malkin in his prime was better suited for the 2nd line not because he wasn't a dominant #1C but because it automatically means that there's an even more dominant C on the team. So saying a middle of the pack #1C like Suzuki is better suited for the 2nd line is less then meaningless.

Looking at last season, 8 centers ahead of Suzuki were actually on the 2nd line.

Some were behind star players - Drai, Hischier, Miller

others are getting older and no longer suited to the workload of a true #1, ideally. They can avoid tough matchups but still be on PP1 - Nelson, Malkin, pavelski, Tavares.

Plus cozens.

Suzuki was 28th for points but likely higher in his ability to handle #1 C duties.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Since January 13th

View attachment 819607

Wow. Small sample size, sure. But this run he’s been on of late is probably the best I’ve seen of a Hab in a long time.

We don’t get players producing multi-point games like clockwork for any real stretch. Hope he keeps it up.

 

[Captain Mountain]

No player is going to be consistent every single night. But when the season begins you have an idea of where they’ll finish.

Suzuki has been consistent too. He’s a consistent 60 plus point scorer. But I always thought he should be better than that. If he’s not, I’d really prefer we get another number one center.

Well, Suzuki's playing at an 80ish point pace right now, and is tied for 30th in points in the NHL among all players.

I also don't really like thinking about it like "get another number one center". Playing with better players (especially for guys who get PP time) generally improves the production and impact of other players. What Montreal needs is more elite talent (or guys who can become elite talent). Which is part of rebuilding.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Since Koivu is often brought up in this kind of discussions, I have to say I have no trouble imagining even post-injury Koivu as the top center on a Stanley Cup winning team. His playoff and international track record is clear enough evidence that he could keep up with the best of them. He just couldn't be relied on to be the best FORWARD on a team. I have no doubt that a Selanne - Koivu - skilled grinder line would be one of the better lines in the NHL.

It's going to be the same story with Suzuki I think.

Agreed. I’ll give Suzuki a bit of an edge but Koivu never really had the linemates. When he had Tanguay and Kovalev for a spell they did quite well.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Well, Suzuki's playing at an 80ish point pace right now, and is tied for 30th in points in the NHL among all players.

I also don't really like thinking about it like "get another number one center". Playing with better players (especially for guys who get PP time) generally improves the production and impact of other players. What Montreal needs is more elite talent (or guys who can become elite talent). Which is part of rebuilding.

Agreed. But we need to get the most out of our players too. And at the end of the day, if that’s the best they can give then we need to re-evaluate out needs.

If you’ve got a guy better suited to a second line role, it behooves you to get a better guy to play on your first. Up until now, I haven’t seen enough from Suzuki to show that he can be a really good first liner. Some have argued that he’s had nothing to work with. I reject that argument. I think a legit first liner should’ve been able to produce more. Caufield as an example was able to put up elite goal totals. There’s no reason Suzuki couldn’t have produced more as well.

He’s 24. Not a kid. If he’s going to take the next step it has to be now. The conditions are ideal. If he can’t do it this year…

 

[Captain Mountain]

Sorry, I’m not trying to say he’s leeching off Slaf. I’m just saying even if he was I wouldn’t care. I just want him to rack up some points.

For the record, I think Suzuki has been our best and most consistent player this year. Nobody is really close.

Slaf is our most improved and I love Guehle and Montie’s seasons. Caufield is a tragic figure. His underlying play is better than ever but the production isn’t there. I just don’t want him to turn into Chris Higgins because if he does I will die.

God, we are a fanbase that has been hurt by prospects before.

If it makes you feel any better, the only season that Caufield has had a worst P/GP than Higgin's best season in the NHL was in 2021 5 points in 10 games).

 

[Deleted member 257557]

If habs have a real high-danger second line and real depth through his prime years, with players that actually stand out at what they do well, Suzuki will be top tier pretty sure.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

God, we are a fanbase that has been hurt by prospects before.

If it makes you feel any better, the only season that Caufield has had a worst P/GP than Higgin's best season in the NHL was in 2021 5 points in 10 games).

I was never concerned with CC’s assists. Even last year he was dishing the puck just fine. But his value lies in the goals. If he’s putting up 40 plus then that really is elite. I am still hopeful tha he’ll be a 50 goal guy. The math suggests that he should be able to get close. I really hope this year was a fluke.

Let’s not discuss Higgins any further. It hurts me.

 

[Redux91]

Sorry, I’m not trying to say he’s leeching off Slaf. I’m just saying even if he was I wouldn’t care. I just want him to rack up some points.

For the record, I think Suzuki has been our best and most consistent player this year. Nobody is really close.

Slaf is our most improved and I love Guehle and Montie’s seasons. Caufield is a tragic figure. His underlying play is better than ever but the production isn’t there. I just don’t want him to turn into Chris Higgins because if he does I will die.

You said it bud

 

[Redux91]

There is no such thing as "still only 24".

Forwards usually peak at that age.

This is wrong
The use of the word 'usually' invalidates your statement sorry

 

[Redux91]

Despite Cole’s year? It’s a myth that Cole is having a bad year lol he is better at every aspect of his game, other than the goals total. On pace for 65 points.

I can still hear some people say, oh! What is he gonna do when he’s not scoring? He’ll transform as a playmaking winger apparently as he is showing now and he still has 6 goals in his last 12 games

I get your post, I do

Don't mistake me someone who dislikes Cole, because I LOVE him
I tried to make a point, on purpose, to say he's not having a 'bad' year but a 'down' year by his ceilings standards as reflected by his shooting% and , if we're all honest, a bit less than expected goal totals

But I know more than anyone he isn't a 1 trick pony, and I watched entirely too many Wisconsin games that I wanted to because I like him that much to prove it lol
His point totals for a 'down year' are more than acceptable for me

Why you may think I'm just mindlessly slamming Cole is ONLY because of how often LG would bring up Cole in the Suzuki discussions

Where it 'looks' like LG 'hates' Suzuki but in actuality does not
I can assure you I do not 'hate' Cole Caufield either lol

We're all just praying these 2 become PPG players
And the debate is about : they need to do it together / do they really need to do it together basically lol

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Caufield posts have been moved to the CC thread. (Imagine this post in bolded blue)

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

There is no such thing as "still only 24".

Forwards usually peak at that age.

Players peak at different ages all the time, there is no set age where a player just stops improving. Even one of the best players in the league in MacKinnon didn't break out until he was 23. Just looking at the current top 50 scorers in the league and there a plenty of examples of players peaking after 24.

- Zibanejad was a 50 point guy then broke out at 25
- Nylander was a 60 point guy then turned into an 80 point guy at 25
- JT Miller turned into a PPG player at age 26
- Hagel is 25 and now close to a PPG
- Roman Josi broke his career high in points by 31 points as a 31 year old.
- Marchand didn't become a PPG player until he was 28
- Verhaege was barely an NHLer at 24.
- Reinhart didn't become a PPG player until 26.