Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

[Lafleurs Guy]

Did you consider Toews to be an elite no. 1 C back in the early to mid 2010s?

He was pretty awesome. He’d produce around a point per game and pace for around 30 goals. He’d also tilt the ice the way Bergeron did. He was physical, drove the play, played D and produced offensively. He was a beast. He was a more physical Bergeron with better offense.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Huh......It's strange. It's almost as if having two good wingers has helped Nick's production. The poor guy was on an island last year in the second half. Both Cole and Slaf were hurt. He had nobody.

People were calling Suzuki a 2C because he wasn't close to scoring 80 pts last season, but how the hell was he supposed to score that many points when there wasn't even another 40 pt player on the team

You'd have to be a McDavid/Mackinnon level talent to be able to do that

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

People were calling Suzuki a 2C because he wasn't close to scoring 80 pts last season, but how the hell was he supposed to score that many points when there wasn't even another 40 pt player on the team

View attachment 819563

You'd have to be a McDavid/Mackinnon level talent to be able to do that

I don’t agree. Particularly when he was slumping before his sniper linemate went down. But we’ve been down that road before.

His problem has always been consistency.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

He was pretty awesome. He’d produce around a point per game and pace for around 30 goals. He’d also tilt the ice the way Bergeron did. He was physical, drove the play, played D and produced offensively. He was a beast. He was a more physical Bergeron with better offense.

I want to be fair so I used his stats from his good rookie season until his third last season where he got 60 pts in 70 games, excluding his last two abysmal seasons for his standards. He was a career pro rated 70 pt player. And this was on one of the most dominant teams in recent memory. This may be a bold claim but if Suzuki were on a good, not even a great, team he'd probably have put up 70 to 80 pts in his last few seasons. He's on pace for around PPG while playing the best defence on the team if you believe in advanced analytics, while also being pretty good on faceoffs. Sounds like a great no. 1 to me

 

[lillypad33]

Last season Suzuki had 66 points. 17 of those points came on the PP... or 25%
this season Nick has 51 points. 25 of those points have come on the PP or 49%.
I think we can see where his increased productivity is coming from.

 

[Milhouse40]

Since January 13th

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

His PPG and faceoff % by year:

19/20 - 0.58 / 46.3%
20/21 - 0.73 / 44.0%
21/22 - 0.74 / 49.6%
22/23 - 0.80 / 47.3%
23/24 - 0.96 / 53.4%

He has managed to improve his points per game every year and greatly improve in the faceoff dot. The kid is still only 24, continues to get better and will hopefully be surrounded by more talent in the future... it is hard to put a ceiling on him because he continues to exceed expectations.

 

[Captain Mountain]

His PPG and faceoff % by year:

19/20 - 0.58 / 46.3%
20/21 - 0.73 / 44.0%
21/22 - 0.74 / 49.6%
22/23 - 0.80 / 47.3%
23/24 - 0.96 / 53.4%

He has managed to improve his points per game every year and greatly improve in the faceoff dot. The kid is still only 24, continues to get better and will hopefully be surrounded by more talent in the future... it is hard to put a ceiling on him because he continues to exceed expectations.

He's also been one of the best defensive centers in the NHL this year when accounting for usage and leverage in defensive situations.

There's still areas to improve, but the progress is so encouraging.

 

[Captain Mountain]

People were calling Suzuki a 2C because he wasn't close to scoring 80 pts last season, but how the hell was he supposed to score that many points when there wasn't even another 40 pt player on the team

View attachment 819563

You'd have to be a McDavid/Mackinnon level talent to be able to do that

That's always been the question with Suzuki the last couple of seasons. People have been disappointed with his progress, but he's been on an awful team that, because of injury, had no consistency anywhere. He was the only guy to play every game the last couple of seasons for the team, and no one else was remotely close. Montreal is still has a shallow roster and is bad, but the team has been healthier and he's had consistent linemates.

 

[Redux91]

I don’t agree. Particularly when he was slumping before his sniper linemate went down. But we’ve been down that road before.

His problem has always been consistency.

I'm just not crazy with you always bringing up that 'slump' lol
It could very well of been where he got hurt and was dealing with something for a bit, the reports last year were Suzuki had several bumps and bruises at certain points
That hasnt been the case this year, but you could tell last year he was nursing something a bit
(Cole had a pretty nasty slump earlier actually which affected Suzuki's numbers this year that could even have him PPG+, but I guess that's a separate issue?)

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'm just not crazy with you always bringing up that 'slump' lol
It could very well of been where he got hurt and was dealing with something for a bit, the reports last year were Suzuki had several bumps and bruises at certain points
That hasnt been the case this year, but you could tell last year he was nursing something a bit
(Cole had a pretty nasty slump earlier actually which affected Suzuki's numbers this year that could even have him PPG+, but I guess that's a separate issue?)

Let’s forget last year.

He’s been a solid two way player for a while. But I think he’s got another gear. He’s shown he does. I was hoping he’d do it last year but that didn’t happen. If it happens this year? Great!

Can we agree that he has what he needs to produce? Our best wingers, good ice time, first unit PP? I mean… are there any excuses for him not to have a solid season now?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I want to be fair so I used his stats from his good rookie season until his third last season where he got 60 pts in 70 games, excluding his last two abysmal seasons for his standards. He was a career pro rated 70 pt player. And this was on one of the most dominant teams in recent memory. This may be a bold claim but if Suzuki were on a good, not even a great, team he'd probably have put up 70 to 80 pts in his last few seasons. He's on pace for around PPG while playing the best defence on the team if you believe in advanced analytics, while also being pretty good on faceoffs. Sounds like a great no. 1 to me

Toews came in younger and was dominant right away. At 19 he put up a 30 plus goal 69 point season. That’s better than Suzuki has ever done in his career to date.

And look at his possession numbers both actual and relative. Yeah he was on a good team but he had significantly better relative numbers than Nick did vs tougher competition. He was a better player at 19 than Suzki at 25. I’m not sure why you’d bring him up.

 

[Ozmodiar]

I don’t agree. Particularly when he was slumping before his sniper linemate went down. But we’ve been down that road before.

His problem has always been consistency.

The only consistency problem that he has is the support around him.

in the 300 games since his rookie season he’s been a consistent 60+ point player, and improving in other aspects - faceoffs, defensive play, etc.

He’s been the team’s only constant over that period.

Nobody’s buying arguments to the contrary when you cherry pick a few games here and there.

 

[Redux91]

Let’s forget last year.

He’s been a solid two way player for a while. But I think he’s got another gear. He’s shown he does. I was hoping he’d do it last year but that didn’t happen. If it happens this year? Great!

Can we agree that he has what he needs to produce? Our best wingers, good ice time, first unit PP? I mean… are there any excuses for him not to have a solid season now?

Do you not consider 51 pts in 53 games a good/solid year..? A large enough sample size??(You'll say 'so far' and I get that, but 50 pts in 50 games is nothing to sneeze at im sorry, and it could be more if Cole wasnt having an off year)

But he just needs 19 points in 29 games to get to 70 pts
Which is a huge stepping stone for players in MTL, as we all know

Next step would be 80 pts
(Toews career high is 81, Bergeron career high is 79)
When we're finally rolling as a real team
It will be more than attainable

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The only consistency problem that he has is the support around him.

in the 300 games since his rookie season he’s been a consistent 60+ point player, and improving in other aspects - faceoffs, defensive play, etc.

He’s been the team’s only constant over that period.

Nobody’s buying arguments to the contrary when you cherry pick a few games here and there.

I’m not cherry picking anything. I’m saying he’s never produced at a level that really warrants him being anything more than a poor man’s first.

You say he had no support and I say that’s a bogus argument.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Do you not consider 51 pts in 53 games a good/solid year..? A large enough sample size??(You'll say 'so far' and I get that, but 50 pts in 50 games is nothing to sneeze at im sorry, and it could be more if Cole wasnt having an off year)

Yes! 51 points in 53 is great. If he finishes the year at 78 points or whatever that’d be a big step forward.

I want him to have a consistent year. I don’t want to see another 15 games where he disappears.

Can we agree that the tools are there for him to do this? There are no excuses. He should finish a fair bit higher than last year? Is that an unreasonable ask?

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Toews came in younger and was dominant right away. At 19 he put up a 30 plus goal 69 point season. That’s better than Suzuki has ever done in his career to date.

And look at his possession numbers both actual and relative. Yeah he was on a good team but he had significantly better relative numbers than Nick did vs tougher competition. He was a better player at 19 than Suzki at 25. I’m not sure why you’d bring him up.

Great, we both agree that Toews was a beast and probably a top 5 C at the time and that he's better than Suzuki. I also think if Suzuki played with Kane throughout his career, hed probably have been a full on PPG player his entire career. He's a better offensive player than Toews was except when they were entry level players. His possession numbers are impressive and again I'm not saying he's worse but if he's the basis for an amazing C, then Suzuki is just a tier below him as he's better offensively and still good defensively. I would consider that an good no. 1 C

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Great, we both agree that Toews was a beast and probably a top 5 C at the time and that he's better than Suzuki. I also think if Suzuki played with Kane throughout his career, hed probably have been a full on PPG player his entire career. He's a better offensive player than Toews was except when they were entry level players. His possession numbers are impressive and again I'm not saying he's worse but if he's the basis for an amazing C, then Suzuki is just a tier below him as he's better offensively and still good defensively. I would consider that an good no. 1 C

Toews and Kane were on different lines most of the time.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Yes! 51 points in 53 is great. If he finishes the year at 78 points or whatever that’d be a big step forward.

I want him to have a consistent year. I don’t want to see another 15 games where he disappears.

Can we agree that the tools are there for him to do this? There are no excuses. He should finish a fair bit higher than last year? Is that an unreasonable ask?

That's kind of bad faithed as you never explain why he dipped last season. Who was he playing with? What coincided with his dip? Was Dach playing with him when he returned or centring his own line?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

That's kind of bad faithed as you never explain why he dipped last season. Who was he playing with? What coincided with his dip?

Actually, I did. His points dropoff happened with his winger continued scoring.

Was Dach playing with him when he returned or centring his own line?

His winger was still scoring, why wasnt Suzuki?

Honestly though… it’s not just last year. He has performed really well in streaks and then there’s a dropoff. He’s always been that way. I’d just like to see more consistency from him. Hopefully this is the year.

 

[Redux91]

Can we agree that the tools are there for him to do this? There are no excuses. He should finish a fair bit higher than last year? Is that an unreasonable ask?

I feel like this part right here should be directed towards yourself a bit lol

YOU should agree , he's capable to pull it off IF the tools are in fact 'there'
Cole missed 38 games last year, so that 'tool' wasn't 'there', and he topped out at a 'mere' 66

So is that an excuse? I guess it is sure, and as you said, but that's last year

Cole is there THIS year, and not having a great year, and Suzuki is still pacing for his best year yet.. so what's Coles excuse?

'Is it an unreasonable ask for him to finish a fair bit better than last years total?'

Well hey.. you love to use 'pace' so much, DESPITE Coles year Suzuki is still pacing for 70+, but there's obviously no guarantee he hits that 70 since we cannot look into the future
It could be 'reasonable' that if Cole had a better season, Suzuki could be at 60 pts flat already
And the discussion is different

But pace is pace, and production is production

You can't look at the next 29 games as a guarantee Suzuki 'disappears' for 15 games and doesn't reach the magic number just because he had a bad 15 game stretch last year

The production is 51 in 53, the Pace is 70+
If he reaches it , f***in great, let's aim for 80 next
If he doesn't, it will be because 1 of Suzuki, Caufield or Slaf get hurt

 

[Archijerej]

I love Suzuki, but let's wait until the end of the season until we have the whole picture. Then we can decide if he has taken another step, or is he already at his ceiling. He's had stretches of great play before.

I'm still hopeful he can establish himself as a top-20 NHL centerman, especially as the supporting cast improves. With a (hopefully) healthy Dach, this could make us solid enough down the middle.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Toews and Kane were on different lines most of the time.

You're right and wrong. In his first 6 seasons Patrick Kane overwhelmingly played the most time with him and it's not even close. After that yes you're correct

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20132014&thruseason=20132014&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8473604

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I feel like this part right here should be directed towards yourself a bit lol

YOU should agree , he's capable to pull it off IF the tools are in fact 'there'
Cole missed 38 games last year, so that 'tool' wasn't 'there', and he topped out at a 'mere' 66

So is that an excuse? I guess it is sure, and as you said, but that's last year

Cole is there THIS year, and not having a great year, and Suzuki is still pacing for his best year yet.. so what's Coles excuse?

'Is it an unreasonable ask for him to finish a fair bit better than last years total?'

Well hey.. you love to use 'pace' so much, DESPITE Coles year Suzuki is still pacing for 70+, but there's obviously no guarantee he hits that 70 since we cannot look into the future
It could be 'reasonable' that if Cole had a better season, Suzuki could be at 60 pts flat already
And the discussion is different

But pace is pace, and production is production

You can't look at the next 29 games as a guarantee Suzuki 'disappears' for 15 games and doesn't reach the magic number just because he had a bad 15 game stretch last year

The production is 51 in 53, the Pace is 70+
If he reaches it , f***in great, let's aim for 80 next
If he doesn't, it will be because 1 of Suzuki, Caufield or Slaf get hurt

Caufield has had a poor year. I don’t think there is an excuse. Does he need one? Can’t we just say he had a bad year? Or do we have to find an excuse for him? Why do we need to look for excuses?

Up until now he’s been Uber consistent. This year he wasn’t. When I see a player who puts up 48 goals in his first 82 under MSL including part of his rookie year, that gives me faith that he can score at an elite level. He’s proven that he can do it. He’s been elite his whole life. And so I epxoect him to produce. He didn’t do that this year.

I can give him a mulligan because the underlying numbers are good and I expect him to produce again next year. But if he doesn’t? If hes healthy and puts up 25 goals next year do you think I’ll argue that he’s an elite winger going forward? I’m telling you now, I won’t. Top players are CONSISTENT. You can have on off year but if you aren’t consistently putting up great numbers then I don’t see how you can argue yourself to be elite. I think CC has elite talent but like any player - he has to prove it.

Same thing with Suzuki. I expected him to produce more than he has. To date he hasn’t done it. So my expectations on him have fallen. I’m hopeful that he can find the next gear and maybe this is it. Maybe Slaf has helped him find it - I don’t really care if he’s leeching points off another player or not. But if you want to be a first line center produce like one.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Toews and Kane were on different lines most of the time.

Let me also add that after that his production got worse and when he again had a near PPG season again in 2018-19, his most played with linemate was coincidentally Patrick kane