His ixG this year at all strengths is ~5.5. He only has 1 goal. If he even had 4 goals, which would still be the worst differential on our team, he is suddenly a 4 goal, 12 point scorer on our 4th line. Still not great, but it is passable for a guy who would still be getting less than expected based on his scoring chances. If he was getting what was expected, and this is while playing on our 4th line most of the year, he would be pacing for 15 goals and 40 points. That is surplus value for 2.5 mill.
The main downside with Ritchie is that, if he does suffer from something like this, he does not bring much value besides being a big body. That separates him from a guy like Mikheyev, who was still an excellent PKer and shutdown guy even when he couldn't convert to save his life last year, and that was the risk with Ritchie. However you are trying to use hindsight to say he sucks when Ritchie is pretty much living with the worst possible outcome relative to how well he is playing right now. Very misleading and poor justification.