League News: NHL Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff) - 2022-23 season, Vol. 4, Off-season Edition

[trick9]

Results around the league, pick your boat:

The Playoff hopes boat:

Good:
- Flyers only 1 point
- Rangers lost
- Canes lost

Bad:
- Isles won
- Leafs won
- Red Wings won
- Habs won
- Sabres won
- Penguins won

The Tank boat:

Good:
- Habs won
- Coyotes won
- Ducks won
- Canucks won
- Penguins won

Bad:
- Flyers lost
- Sens lost
- Hawks lost
- Blue Jackets lost
- Preds lost

 

[RedRocking]

Results around the league, pick your boat:

The Playoff hopes boat:

Good:
- Flyers only 1 point
- Rangers lost
- Canes lost

Bad:
- Isles won
- Leafs won
- Red Wings won
- Habs won
- Sabres won
- Penguins won

The Tank boat:

Good:
- Habs won
- Coyotes won
- Ducks won
- Canucks won
- Penguins won

Bad:
- Flyers lost
- Sens lost
- Hawks lost
- Blue Jackets lost
- Preds lost

The Oilers also lost, and you know, if they just miss the playoffs, the league would be super pumped to give them the #1 pick…again.

 

[Hivemind]

The reality is that while this team is bad, it's not nearly bad enough to be in serious contention for the #1 pick. The Anaheims, Columbuses, and Chicagos of the world are a whole level of more terrible than the Caps. I think Philadelphia eventually joins them at the bottom as well. Even if the bottom falls out of the Caps entirely, I think we're looking at something like 6.5-7.5% odds of the #1 pick at most.

More than likely this team is going to hang around the periphery of the playoff race and end up with, like, pick 12.

 

[Peeri]

The reality is that while this team is bad, it's not nearly bad enough to be in serious contention for the #1 pick. The Anaheims, Columbuses, and Chicagos of the world are a whole level of more terrible than the Caps. I think Philadelphia eventually joins them at the bottom as well. Even if the bottom falls out of the Caps entirely, I think we're looking at something like 6.5-7.5% odds of the #1 pick at most.

More than likely this team is going to hang around the periphery of the playoff race and end up with, like, pick 12.

That's like the worst possible scenario, no playoffs, but also unlikely to get high draft picks.

 

[YippieKaey]

The reality is that while this team is bad, it's not nearly bad enough to be in serious contention for the #1 pick. The Anaheims, Columbuses, and Chicagos of the world are a whole level of more terrible than the Caps. I think Philadelphia eventually joins them at the bottom as well. Even if the bottom falls out of the Caps entirely, I think we're looking at something like 6.5-7.5% odds of the #1 pick at most.

More than likely this team is going to hang around the periphery of the playoff race and end up with, like, pick 12.

Look where we're at in the standings. I'd argue the Blue Jackets have much greater potential to rise in the standings than we do. At least if Werenski manages to return, which i guess is doubtful.

 

[YippieKaey]

We're 24th in the league currently and about 4-5 teams have 2-3 fewer games played and are within 4 points of us. If the Caps FO are tanking on purpose they're doing a decent job.

 

[PlushMinus]

We're 24th in the league currently and about 4-5 teams have 2-3 fewer games played and are within 4 points of us. If the Caps FO are tanking on purpose they're doing a decent job.

Haha there is no way the Caps are tanking 20 games into the season. Even teams like Arizona are trying to win - that's how they were able to shut out the Canes 0-4 the other night.

 

[Hivemind]

Look where we're at in the standings. I'd argue the Blue Jackets have much greater potential to rise in the standings than we do. At least if Werenski manages to return, which i guess is doubtful.

Naw, Columbus is a whole different level of awful beneath the Capitals. They have a -25 goal differential just 19 games into their season (only Anaheim's -31 is worse). All of CBus' possession metrics are only around 44% at 5v5 (typically 4th worst in the league respectively). They're a 39.71% Goals For team at 5v5 (3rd worst in the NHL, Capitals are 46.84% for reference). Even their powerplay is a paltry 13% successful (just 0.5% better than Anaheim, the league's worst).

 

[trick9]

That's like the worst possible scenario, no playoffs, but also unlikely to get high draft picks.

I think the worst possible scenario is fighting for the Playoff spot beyond the deadline and eventually losing that battle while keeping all your UFA's who (atleast some of them) then walk for nothing. We have already traded a good chunk of our future picks too. I think that scenario would spell the end for GMBM.

 

[YippieKaey]

Naw, Columbus is a whole different level of awful beneath the Capitals. They have a -25 goal differential just 19 games into their season (only Anaheim's -31 is worse). All of CBus' possession metrics are only around 44% at 5v5 (typically 4th worst in the league respectively). They're a 39.71% Goals For team at 5v5 (3rd worst in the NHL, Capitals are 46.84% for reference). Even their powerplay is a paltry 13% successful (just 0.5% better than Anaheim, the league's worst).

Yeah they suck. But a powerplay at 13% with Gaudreau and Laine on it is likely to improve. Which is my point. The Caps are doing most things at a "meh" level with no clear underperforming. I'd argue that teams such as CBJ, VAN and even BUF are underperforming right now. We are not really underperforming, this is about as good as this team gets currently.

 

[Hivemind]

Yeah they suck. But a powerplay at 13% with Gaudreau and Laine on it is likely to improve. Which is my point. The Caps are doing most things at a "meh" level with no clear underperforming. I'd argue that teams such as CBJ, VAN and even BUF are underperforming right now. We are not really underperforming, this is about as good as this team gets currently.

Capitals are absolutely underperforming. Kuznetsov, Mantha, and/or Carlson playing anywhere near their potential puts this team much closer to the playoffs.

 

[Langway]

I think that scenario would spell the end for GMBM.

I tend to doubt it. Injuries will be a convenient excuse and if they make that decision at the deadline there's a very strong chance ownership will have backed it. I think he gets at least another mess of a season before the seat remotely gets hot. Ted typically does not make quick decisions at that level and in part it's because they don't tend to have total autonomy where ownership isn't at least partly culpable as well.

 

[Hivemind]

Should GMBM be on the hot seat? Probably.

Is GMBM actually on the hot seat? Not a chance. Have you paid attention to how long Ted has kept GMs for both the Capitals and Wizards?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I feel pretty safe in saying that BMac will not make a rash, desperation trade like McPhee did. Mac has always been calculated even when being aggressive. He’s not going to trade one of their blue chips for an aging winger who won’t move the needle. I could definitely see him pulling another Vrana/Mantha trade if he thinks there’s a legitimate hockey trade but pushing all of his chips in and hoping for the best doesn’t seem like his style.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Bedard or not, I don't think the rebuild will be too bad, especially watching Miro, Lapi etc.

 

[Langway]

I feel pretty safe in saying that BMac will not make a rash, desperation trade like McPhee did.

What if ownership demands it, though? With McMichael in particular there's a lot of potential for it. Whether the player is Erat level washed is another question, as is whether they may be forced to wait until Backstrom's status is resolved first to know their cap situation more clearly. I don't think McMichael turns into Forsberg but I don't doubt they mortgage the future further in order to attempt to sneak into the playoffs.

Something like Mantha+McMichael for a top sixer that's fallen out of favor elsewhere or something would be predictable enough. Maybe Meier given his $10M QO (likely with a little something extra thrown in like AA). I also wonder a bit about DeBrincat given the lack of an extension to date, OTT's poor start and his $9M QO. It would be hard to replicate the Erat trade. I mean, what would that be these days? Gus Nyquist for Miro or their first rounder? Hard to bomb that badly.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Bedard or not, I don't think the rebuild will be too bad, especially watching Miro, Lapi etc.

I don't know, say Miro and Jimi top out as Kuzy and Oshie types. They still have an incredibly long way to go, and no likely future stars.

Most modern Cup winners have multiple high picks and stars on the team. If the Caps choose to fab about with a retool they're probably never going to get there.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I don't know, say Miro and Jimi top out as Kuzy and Oshie types. They still have an incredibly long way to go, and no likely future stars.

Most modern Cup winners have multiple high picks and stars on the team. If the Caps choose to fab about with a retool they're probably never going to get there.

Always look up bro, always look up.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

What if ownership demands it, though? With McMichael in particular there's a lot of potential for it. Whether the player is Erat level washed is another question, as is whether they may be forced to wait until Backstrom's status is resolved first to know their cap situation more clearly. I don't think McMichael turns into Forsberg but I don't doubt they mortgage the future further in order to attempt to sneak into the playoffs.

Something like Mantha+McMichael for a top sixer that's fallen out of favor elsewhere or something would be predictable enough. Maybe Meier given his $10M QO (likely with a little something extra thrown in like AA). I also wonder a bit about DeBrincat given the lack of an extension to date, OTT's poor start and his $9M QO. It would be hard to replicate the Erat trade. I mean, what would that be these days? Gus Nyquist for Miro or their first rounder? Hard to bomb that badly.

If ownership demands it then we’re pretty screwed because that means Ted isn’t going to let the hockey guys make the decisions he hired them to make. If Ted’s mandate is to just make the playoffs at all costs even if he’s being told internally they’re not a contender then we should just pack it up and enjoy watching Ovi for the next few years until the wheels fall completely off.

I’m ok with a legitimate hockey trade. I didn’t hate the Vrana for Mantha trade and I think it would look a hell of a lot better if they deployed Mantha correctly. Their inability to use Mantha properly is interesting because I better understand the frustration felt by Burakovsky, Vrana, Stephenson, and Siegenthaler in terms of feeling underutilized after watching them completely botch both McMichael’s development and Mantha’s usage in recent seasons.

 

[YippieKaey]

Capitals are absolutely underperforming. Kuznetsov, Mantha, and/or Carlson playing anywhere near their potential puts this team much closer to the playoffs.

Is it underperforming if it's been happening for years? At least with Kuzy & Mantha

 

[YippieKaey]

If ownership demands it then we’re pretty screwed because that means Ted isn’t going to let the hockey guys make the decisions he hired them to make. If Ted’s mandate is to just make the playoffs at all costs even if he’s being told internally they’re not a contender then we should just pack it up and enjoy watching Ovi for the next few years until the wheels fall completely off.

I’m ok with a legitimate hockey trade. I didn’t hate the Vrana for Mantha trade and I think it would look a hell of a lot better if they deployed Mantha correctly. Their inability to use Mantha properly is interesting because I better understand the frustration felt by Burakovsky, Vrana, Stephenson, and Siegenthaler in terms of feeling underutilized after watching them completely botch both McMichael’s development and Mantha’s usage in recent seasons.

What do you feel would be a proper use of Mantha? Just curious

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What if ownership demands it, though? With McMichael in particular there's a lot of potential for it. Whether the player is Erat level washed is another question, as is whether they may be forced to wait until Backstrom's status is resolved first to know their cap situation more clearly. I don't think McMichael turns into Forsberg but I don't doubt they mortgage the future further in order to attempt to sneak into the playoffs.

Something like Mantha+McMichael for a top sixer that's fallen out of favor elsewhere or something would be predictable enough. Maybe Meier given his $10M QO (likely with a little something extra thrown in like AA). I also wonder a bit about DeBrincat given the lack of an extension to date, OTT's poor start and his $9M QO. It would be hard to replicate the Erat trade. I mean, what would that be these days? Gus Nyquist for Miro or their first rounder? Hard to bomb that badly.

What exactly do you think Ted is going to demand? Like……”make an impact move”?

I don’t think Ted acts as you‘re suggesting he might.

 

[Langway]

What exactly do you think Ted is going to demand? Like……”make an impact move”?

I don’t think Ted acts as you‘re suggesting he might.

I don't think Ted is some domineering despot or anything. It's more of a soft power. It's a general sense of obligation, an understanding reading the room, that making the playoffs remains a primary objective and that if moves need to be made to stay on track so be it.

If selling off isn't an unavoidable reality I doubt MacLellan goes to ownership suggesting it. If it's close I think we know which we they'll be thinking. MacLellan needs to game plan all options and maybe they could net a bounty of picks for players. The season could turn that way due to injuries giving them no other choice. But that also requires a very ambitious restructuring plan to turn it back around in short order that they'd all rather avoid if possible. They'd rather make this work and if it just takes the right targeted trade(s) it's what all parties would most like to believe and prefer. It also makes MacLellan look better to believe they're that close.

Ted has his own vision for his teams and it does present a framework that can make it hard to objectively assess GM performance due to such influence/restrictions. They want to remain relevant and stay a playoff team. They want the fan base to remain positively engaged beyond the 895 pursuit. So I don't expect MacLellan to come up with some sweeping plan for mostly dismantling the team if it's at all a close decision. They'll opt on the side of helping rather than dismantling if it's remotely close. All of those internal factors are I think significantly more influential than whether they're Cup level or not and whatever actions would result from that conclusion. Or else his teams would actively embrace a lot more hardship rather than endeavoring more into convenience.

 

[Cappy76]

What do you feel would be a proper use of Mantha? Just curious

To me he should be on PP1 moving kuzy (now strome) down to the goal line and utilizing his one timer across from Ovies.
He also needs to be put in a position to succeed with scoring line players not Eller and whoever else is playing on the 3rd line in a particular game. Put him with strome and Ovie or kuzy and Milano before oshie came back.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Caps really need to be road warriors and this road stretch in December will be a great test. A great start with a win in NJ would be awesome.