NHL Expansion back on agenda?

sneakytitz

Registered User
Mar 8, 2023
425
620
Atlanta, GA, USA
They do when they're playing northern teams or, much more rarely, when they're playing another championship caliber southern team.

And there you have it, folks, they went from not being nationally televised to being nationally televised (with alleged conditions). I have the break down of games and I could prove you wrong but you'd just keep moving those goal posts, so why bother?

Either way, you're wrong!
 

Takuto Maruki

Ideal and the real
Dec 13, 2016
421
303
Brandon, Manitoba
I do find it really funny that an Ottawa fan, who until Andlauer bought the team, was widely regarded as the Canadian team on the thinnest ice in terms of overall health, chiding Southern hockey, especially when the Lightning are massive in Tampa, arguably the second most popular team in the city, Nashville being a destination in the same way Vegas is for away fans, and Carolina having wide support within the state.

I know drive-by's are the name of the game with certain topics here on the business board, but it takes someone truly special to spend a few days actively arguing for his points that he and everyone knows is false and patently untrue, but still does it out of poster's honor. Magical.
 

Max Milk

Registered User
Jun 2, 2023
44
34
I'm not chiding southern hockey at all, what I'm saying is that the sport isn't culturally relevant down there and that these expansion prospects are disappointing, yet not surprising. I'm not advocating for the complete destruction of southern teams as so many of the dumber Canadian hockey fans constantly do. Hell a lot of you probably have to deal with that type of crap constantly on this website so I understand your defensiveness on this one.
 

Max Milk

Registered User
Jun 2, 2023
44
34
the Lightning are massive in Tampa, arguably the second most popular team in the city,
They're tied with the Rays. A team that has been rumoured to be on the move for 15 years. I don't want to disparage the Lightning because they do relatively well, but this isn't some big accomplishment.
Nashville being a destination in the same way Vegas is for away fans
Ok, that says what about the popularity of hockey amongst southerners exactly?
and Carolina having wide support within the state.
Lol you sure about that? Seems to me like they have a healthy niche audience in Raleigh which is fine, btw. But it's not wide support within the state, not by a longshot.
 
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Max Milk

Registered User
Jun 2, 2023
44
34
And there you have it, folks, they went from not being nationally televised to being nationally televised (with alleged conditions). I have the break down of games and I could prove you wrong but you'd just keep moving those goal posts, so why bother?

Either way, you're wrong!
This is a conversation about Atlanta, Phoenix, Houston & San Diego. Do you think they'd get a lot of nationally televised games?

(to be fair Houston might get a few, but those other 3 not so much)
 

dj4aces

An Intricate Piece of Infinity
Dec 17, 2007
6,539
1,628
Duluth, GA
Cool, so when does this southern expansion churn out anything more meaningful than just enough season ticket holders to keep the team in town? Hockey is still, after 30 years of this, enjoying zero cultural relevance in the southern states.
Define "cultural relevance". Were you expecting folks here to suddenly start carrying sticks and skates to the not-frozen-over community pools for a game? Maybe lace up their skates, drop the puck and... watch it sink to the bottom of the pool? I'm really not sure what you were expecting here.

When you introduce a sport to an area, it takes a lot of time for that sport to catch on. It takes owners who are dedicated to making it work and who *must* build an environment to nurture the sport in that area from the ground up, owners who need to build up youth programs around the market, and they'll have to spend a fortune on marketing the team.

Expanding to "non-traditional markets" takes time and requires a lot of money and patience.
 
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No Fun Shogun

34-38-61-10-13-15
May 1, 2011
57,552
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Friendly reminder, loads of talking heads and folks online were predicting an utter failure for a team in Las Vegas, maybe only bailed out by being a safe road draw.

In reality, they were damn good, well-run, found success, and absolutely became a cultural phenomenon (even if they're the heel and not the face outside their fanbase). Go back in time a decade and tell people that, and you'd have been locked in a looney bin or accused of carrying Bettman's water.

Preemptively assuming disaster for larger markets seems foolhardy. Sure, an Atlanta3.0 could fail, but if smartly run and merely competent I fail to see a reason why they wouldn't be at least somewhat successful.
 

nhlfan79

Registered User
Feb 3, 2005
620
1,009
Atlanta, GA
Preemptively assuming disaster for larger markets seems foolhardy. Sure, an Atlanta3.0 could fail, but if smartly run and merely competent I fail to see a reason why they wouldn't be at least somewhat successful.

Atlanta is no different than any other major American city. There's nothing inherent about hockey not being able to succeed here.

It's so tiring to keep having to point this out over and over, but the Thrashers only "failed" here because seven specific individual people affirmatively wanted the hockey team to fail in order to eliminate entertainment competition in the market for their preferred basketball team. Full stop.
 

Tawnos

A guy with a bass
Sep 10, 2004
29,345
11,146
Charlotte, NC
Atlanta is no different than any other major American city. There's nothing inherent about hockey not being able to succeed here.

It's so tiring to keep having to point this out over and over, but the Thrashers only "failed" here because seven specific individual people affirmatively wanted the hockey team to fail in order to eliminate entertainment competition in the market for their preferred basketball team. Full stop.

Everyone wants to think their city is unique and therefore every other city is unique. In many aspects, it’s true, but the quality of a market for sports, including hockey, isn’t one of those aspects.
 
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ForumNamePending

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Mar 31, 2012
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I dunno... I guess it all depends on your expectations and how you define success. :dunno: Under the right circumstances/conditions the NHL should be able to do fine in Atlanta (or Houston, or Phoenix). When talking about markets with that kind of population and GDP an NHL team should be able to carve out a large enough niche to comfortably sustain itself, and if a franchise can do that, IMHO it qualifies as a success.

When talking about expansion to these large markets I know some folks like to talk about what kind of impact it will have on things like TV viewership/rights fees (big $!?) talent pool (prolific new pipelines!?), and just a general increase in relevance of the league/sport (ESPN will talk/yell more about hockey!?), and the answer to that I think, even in the long term, is very little... And that's fine? :dunno: For the most part I think people expecting or demanding those things are either enthusiastic supporters high on their own hopium, or critics in search of a metric that can used at some point in future to deem the market/team a failure.
 
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dj4aces

An Intricate Piece of Infinity
Dec 17, 2007
6,539
1,628
Duluth, GA
I dunno... I guess it all depends on your expectations and how you define success. :dunno: Under the right circumstances/conditions the NHL should be able to do fine in Atlanta (or Houston, or Phoenix). When talking about markets with that kind of population and GDP an NHL team should be able to carve out a large enough niche to comfortably sustain itself, and if a franchise can do that, IMHO it qualifies as a success.

When talking about expansion to these large markets I know some folks like to talk about what kind of impact it will have on things like TV viewership/rights fees (big $!?) talent pool (prolific new pipelines!?), and just a general increase in relevance of the league/sport (ESPN will talk/yell more about hockey!?), and the answer to that I think, even in the long term, is very little... And that's fine? :dunno: For the most part I think people expecting or demanding those things are either enthusiastic supporters high on their own hopium, or critics in search of a metric that can used at some point in future to deem the market/team a failure.
On the first part? Absolutely. Success, and what it means, is all in the eye of the beholder. On a personal note, I have a dream of being able to get off of disability and go back to work, and if I'm able to do that, I consider that a roaring success, at least in the short term. For others, the bar is much higher. For others still, the fact I'm not in some sort of homeless shelter because disability barely gives anyone enough to live off of is a success in and of itself. So it stands to reason that different folks will also have a different view on what makes a franchise successful, or a failure for that matter. However, I do agree with your view of what qualifies as a success story in sports franchise terms.

On the second part? Arbitrary values attributed to things like TV deals, talent development, and relevancy are largely meaningless in the bigger picture. But short term and small picture? Fans are happy hearing a local kid get drafted by their local NHL team, and feel good hearing their town and team talked up by on-air personalities and podcasts, or reading about it on blogs or in other print media. Folks like to feel good about where they live and the team(s) they love. But don't let anyone fool anyone else: Things like TV rights deals are strictly league business. Unless the fans are business-oriented and take an interest in such things, the only thing most fans really care about is their ability to access as many games on TV or streaming platforms as they can.
 

AtlantaWhaler

Thrash/Preds/Sabres
Jul 3, 2009
20,244
3,504
I've been to those cities (excluding Raleigh) and nobody there gives a rat's ass about hockey. Full stop.
Just because you've visited those cities and you oddly end your opinion with "full stop" doesn't make it true. I presented facts. All those southern markets were top-10 in attendance. I would add Nashville (located just a 4-hour drive from Atlanta) as they were 100% sold out. They just have a smaller arena.

And no, the Lightning is not on par with the Rays in Tampa. The Rays were only selling 20K tickets to the playoffs just a couple years ago.
They do when they're playing northern teams or, much more rarely, when they're playing another championship caliber southern team.
Most teams go through attendance problems for stretches. Even your precious northern teams. Currently, Winnipeg and Buffalo are struggling at the gate. Less than 2 years ago, your Senators had troubles selling out during a stretch of playoffs. These teams will recover...it happens.
 
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varsaku

Registered User
Feb 14, 2014
2,675
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United States
The NHL is trying to grow the sport, not remain stagnant. To grow, you need to expand to places where people may not know much about the sport. Putting a team in a place where people are already fans doesn't grow the footprint of the sport. It doesn't grow the game at all. Growth in the southern US is one of the BoG's stated objectives. It was when the BoG hired Bettman to be the commissioner, and with three top-10 markets in the southern US without NHL teams, it remains true today.
Putting these teams in new markets grows the NHL not the sport. It does bring in a lot more revenue by adding these large markets. However, there is very limited grass roots growth. Most southern markets have only a hand full of local NHL players to show despite being around for years now.
 

WeaponOfChoice

Registered User
Jan 25, 2020
675
367
Define "cultural relevance". Were you expecting folks here to suddenly start carrying sticks and skates to the not-frozen-over community pools for a game? Maybe lace up their skates, drop the puck and... watch it sink to the bottom of the pool? I'm really not sure what you were expecting here.

When you introduce a sport to an area, it takes a lot of time for that sport to catch on. It takes owners who are dedicated to making it work and who *must* build an environment to nurture the sport in that area from the ground up, owners who need to build up youth programs around the market, and they'll have to spend a fortune on marketing the team.

Expanding to "non-traditional markets" takes time and requires a lot of money and patience.
It's called road hockey and, in spite of what you may have been told, we Canucks play it all summer long
 

sneakytitz

Registered User
Mar 8, 2023
425
620
Atlanta, GA, USA
Putting these teams in new markets grows the NHL not the sport. It does bring in a lot more revenue by adding these large markets. However, there is very limited grass roots growth.

Not in Georgia. We have the largest amount of junior/amateur leagues/teams/involvement of any state in the U.S. There are now 5 professional hockey teams (2 ECHL, 2 FPHL, and 1 SPHL) scattered across the state.
 

varsaku

Registered User
Feb 14, 2014
2,675
910
United States
Not in Georgia. We have the largest amount of junior/amateur leagues/teams/involvement of any state in the U.S. There are now 5 professional hockey teams (2 ECHL, 2 FPHL, and 1 SPHL) scattered across the state.
That was my point. Viewership increased due to NHL hockey in the state but number of pro caliber players coming out of Georgia is still zero.
 

ponder719

M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
Jul 2, 2013
7,902
10,955
Philadelphia, PA
That was my point. Viewership increased due to NHL hockey in the state but number of pro caliber players coming out of Georgia is still zero.

It's a fairly narrow point. "Are any of these kids good enough to play at the highest level" is an incredibly limited lens to view grass roots growth through, compared to minor/junior hockey infrastructure, professional teams being brought in at lower levels, things like that. It's like saying Philadelphia isn't a hockey market because the only big names anyone can associate with the Delaware Valley and South Jersey are Mike Richter, Bobby Ryan, and Johnny Gaudreau.
 

AtlantaWhaler

Thrash/Preds/Sabres
Jul 3, 2009
20,244
3,504
That was my point. Viewership increased due to NHL hockey in the state but number of pro caliber players coming out of Georgia is still zero.
Not sure how the number of players out of any given state translates to popularity and success of any team. No idea how many players come from sunbelt teams or Vegas, but they're crushing attendance figures and have won the last two cups.
 

TheLegend

"Just say it 3 times..."
Aug 30, 2009
38,796
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Buzzing BoH
They do when they're playing northern teams or, much more rarely, when they're playing another championship caliber southern team.
Um.... don't think so....

First one on the list was a pre-season game
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS GAMES BROADCAST NATIONALLY
^Thu. Oct. 5 vs. Colorado (TNT)
Tue. Oct. 10 vs. Seattle (ESPN)
Tue. Oct. 24 vs. Philadelphia (ESPN)
Wed. Nov. 8 vs. Los Angeles (TNT)
\Wed. Nov. 22 at Dallas (TNT)
Mon. Jan. 1 at Seattle (TNT)
Wed. Jan. 10 at Colorado (TNT)
Fri. Jan. 26 at New York Rangers (ESPN)
Tue. Feb. 6 vs. Edmonton (ESPN+/Hulu)
Sat. Mar. 2 at Buffalo (ESPN+/Hulu)
Sun. Mar. 17 vs. New Jersey (TNT)
Thu. Mar. 21 vs. Seattle (ESPN)
Sat. Mar. 30 at Minnesota (ESPN)
\
Wed. Apr. 10 at Edmonton (TNT)
Sun. Apr. 14 vs. Colorado (TNT)
Tue. Apr. 16 vs. Chicago (ESPN+/Hulu)


Also we're not talking about expanding to Dallas here, we're talking about the likes of Phoenix & Atlanta who were absolute national broadcast kryptonite.

Two of the top 12 media markets in the US.
 

KevFu

Registered User
May 22, 2009
9,428
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Phoenix from Rochester via New Orleans
Real dollar differences is one way of framing the differences between the leagues, but IMO it's not a better measurement than % difference.

The difference between NFL and NHL was $6.7B (12.8-6.2), 108% more for the NFL.
The difference between NHL and MLS was $4.2B (6.2-2), 210% more for the NHL.

As I've mentioned before, I think people overstate the connection between two totally distinct markets just because they're somewhat close geographically and are in the same state. A Houston Aeros team would have very, very little penetration in the Austin and San Antonio markets after just a few years... same as the Hurricanes have little penetration in the Charlotte market after more than 25 years.

I frame it more in terms of like "For each franchise to be average in revenue in each league, what's the cost per fan in the market?" What's the real-world application of that percentage gap you just displayed?

The real world application for $ per person in the market is that you can compare apples to apples across all the markets in the US and see just what to expect for financial health

For example, you sort the list of $ per person among the baseball teams. Well four playoff teams are from the top four markets: SD, NY, LA. How is San Diego paying Tatis, Machado and Bogarts and had Snell and Soto, and Darvish and carrying a payroll that big when they're "small market" ? Well, they only need $78 per person to be league average in revenue. New York teams need $88. Cincinnati, who's kinda sucked forever, needs $263 per person.



The one caveat I'd make to your comment about "a Houston team would have very little penetration" position would be "where's their AHL team?" because that's something that would help.
 
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aqib

Registered User
Feb 13, 2012
5,538
1,581
There were rumors (just that though...no link I can give) that ASG was negotiating with a group in Seattle immediately after buying the team. We do know that court docs say they were actively trying to sell the team right away. Not sure if true and if there was any continued interest out of Seattle years later when the sale finally occurred.
Seattle doesn't make sense for 2005. Shultz was in the midst of trying to get a new arena even though Key had just been renovated 10 years earlier. Also, I'm not sure how the lease would have worked in that case. I'm surprised Ballsille wasn't in the mix since it was just a year before he made his Penguins bid.
 
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KevFu

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May 22, 2009
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Not sure how the number of players out of any given state translates to popularity and success of any team. No idea how many players come from sunbelt teams or Vegas, but they're crushing attendance figures and have won the last two cups.

Right. The overall point is that no one really CARES about the "cultural relevance" (whatever that means) compared to MONEY. The fact is that the league is generating $200m plus in revenue from places they were getting $0 before.

It's also humorous to me you mention the "last two Cups" since Colorado was a team that joined the NHL in the 1990s amid the "Southern expansion" and while not in the Sun Belt, would be one of the southern-most franchises if not for the Sun Belt expansion. Ditto STL and WAS, who won Cups before Tampa won back-to-back. So basically 9 of the last 13 are from "Not North"
 

KevFu

Registered User
May 22, 2009
9,428
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Phoenix from Rochester via New Orleans
The other reason I like the "$ per person in the market" thing is that it can show us the line of where it's better to be #1 in a small market vs #4 in a big market.


Like adding an NHL team to Milwaukee ($344), Kansas City ($283), Cleveland ($234), Cincinnati ($312).

Houston $126
Atlanta $132
Quebec $136

It's really not that different in terms of viability. Quebec is 1/8th to 1/10th the size of HOU/ATL, but JUST NHL is 1/8th the necessary revenue compared to all five teams.
 
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