Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[Judas Tavares]

When trying to figure out who might fall out of the top 13, one thing I tried to look at was what teams would reach and who would they reach for, causing fallers.

Winnipeg and Florida stand out to me as team who could reach. If they both were to, then we would get a faller.

Winnipeg it might be a little less realistic since at 10 they are in a spot to get a real skilled player. But both teams seem to have needs everywhere other than in net.

Who could they reach for?

The first 2 obvious ones to me are Guhle and Schneider. This draft lacks defenders and teams may feel the need to roll the dice early.

I think Dawson Mercer is another. While teams like to go for the most skilled players, I think teams sometimes feel safe in picking the guy that will be a player. Mercer seems to have a very high floor and also lineup versatility.

On the opposite end, with the skill potential and his hot start, someone could very easily take a big swing on Lapierre.

I think Holloway will attract teams as a centre with size, especially with how rare that in this year's draft.

The last is Zary. Once again, not a lot of centres in this draft and if Horvat is his comparison, teams will jump on that.

 

[JSn0w93]

When trying to figure out who might fall out of the top 13, one thing I tried to look at was what teams would reach and who would they reach for, causing fallers.

Winnipeg and Florida stand out to me as team who could reach. If they both were to, then we would get a faller.

Winnipeg it might be a little less realistic since at 10 they are in a spot to get a real skilled player. But both teams seem to have needs everywhere other than in net.

Who could they reach for?

The first 2 obvious ones to me are Guhle and Schneider. This draft lacks defenders and teams may feel the need to roll the dice early.

I think Dawson Mercer is another. While teams like to go for the most skilled players, I think teams sometimes feel safe in picking the guy that will be a player. Mercer seems to have a very high floor and also lineup versatility.

On the opposite end, with the skill potential and his hot start, someone could very easily take a big swing on Lapierre.

I think Holloway will attract teams as a centre with size, especially with how rare that in this year's draft.

The last is Zary. Once again, not a lot of centres in this draft and if Horvat is his comparison, teams will jump on that.

Agreed. I'm pretty sure Florida will take one of Guhle or Schneider based on what I've been reading.

 

[stickty111]

Agreed. I'm pretty sure Florida will take one of Guhle or Schneider based on what I've been reading.

Pronman had them taking Jarvis, but I'm not sure if thats exactly accurate, considering Pronman also said in the same paragraph that he heard they liked Schnieder. I think they are the wild card where they could any direction.
I'm concerned about Winnipeg and Carolina when it comes to Jarvis, but if they don't take him, I think he gets to us.

 

[Warden of the North]

I believe the last goalie we took in the first round worked out. Askarov might be a franchise goalie and we might regret passing on him at 15 if we were lucky if he was still there when we pick.

Its more likely hes nothing. Like, by a fair margin.

 

[JSn0w93]

Pronman had them taking Jarvis, but I'm not sure if thats exactly accurate, considering Pronman also said in the same paragraph that he heard they liked Schnieder. I think they are the wild card where they could any direction.
I'm concerned about Winnipeg and Carolina when it comes to Jarvis, but if they don't take him, I think he gets to us.

I'm definitely scared by Winnipeg with Jarvis. They need players who want to play and stay in Winnipeg, and it will be hard to pass on a hometown kid like Jarvis. I think the best case scenario for us at this point is Jarvis falling which is unlikely but is still a possibility. I've given up hope with Askarov realistically falling to us.

 

[stickty111]

I'm definitely scared by Winnipeg with Jarvis. They need players who want to play and stay in Winnipeg, and it will be hard to pass on a hometown kid like Jarvis. I think the best case scenario for us at this point is Jarvis falling which is unlikely but is still a possibility. I've given up hope with Askarov realistically falling to us.

Agreed

 

[Ulysses31]

as leafs fan I would be happy with 1 of Reichel, Jarvis, Lundell, Lapierre, Amirov, Wallinder, Khusnutdinov, Peterka, Bourque or Perreault in that range

 

[KMNRB]

When trying to figure out who might fall out of the top 13, one thing I tried to look at was what teams would reach and who would they reach for, causing fallers.

Winnipeg and Florida stand out to me as team who could reach. If they both were to, then we would get a faller.

Winnipeg it might be a little less realistic since at 10 they are in a spot to get a real skilled player. But both teams seem to have needs everywhere other than in net.

Who could they reach for?

The first 2 obvious ones to me are Guhle and Schneider. This draft lacks defenders and teams may feel the need to roll the dice early.

I think Dawson Mercer is another. While teams like to go for the most skilled players, I think teams sometimes feel safe in picking the guy that will be a player. Mercer seems to have a very high floor and also lineup versatility.

On the opposite end, with the skill potential and his hot start, someone could very easily take a big swing on Lapierre.

I think Holloway will attract teams as a centre with size, especially with how rare that in this year's draft.

The last is Zary. Once again, not a lot of centres in this draft and if Horvat is his comparison, teams will jump on that.

I read that Schneider seemed to be Florida's choice when Tallon was there, but now it's anybody's guess.

I can definitely see Winnipeg picking Lapierre if they are satisfied with his past injury.

I wonder, if we assume that one or two of the top 13 will fall to us, whom do you least like to see available at #15? Would it be Quinn? Or Holtz?

 

[JSn0w93]

as leafs fan I would be happy with 1 of Reichel, Jarvis, Lundell, Lapierre, Amirov, Wallinder, Khusnutdinov, Peterka, Bourque or Perreault in that range

Some of my favorites. I really do think this is a great year for forwards.

 

[Morgs]

I like O'Rourke, but at 15 I'd be shocked and probably disappointed.

 

[JSn0w93]

I like O'Rourke, but at 15 I'd be shocked and probably disappointed.

I'd be let down even in a trade back scenario from 15.

 

[TimeZone]

O'Rourke is a second rounder.

He's closer to 44 than 15. May be a target for us if we acquire another second.

 

[cookie]

Am I the only one not super high on Lapierre? Granted I haven't seen him this year, but I have others above him. The concussions alone have to worry you.

Hearing him turn his shot around, Lapierre sounds like another Abramov but with injury concerns, playing on a more offensively talented team. One thing I’m concerned with him is how easily his team concedes scoring chances with him on the ice - a center or a playmaking winger should be driving the game’s shot count, especially in the QMJHL. Both he and Mercer don’t have particularly good defensive ratings based on scouching’s latest post.

With that said, defence is something that can be taught but you can’t teach how to thread passes like Hendrix can. At this range in the first round, you hardly get a player without a question mark or two. plus, there are several players that fit this billing in this tier- unless there’s a faller like Liljegren, I’m quite certain the leafs will be looking to move back or trade the pick outright.

 

[Knies iT]

O'Rourke will be one of the most complete defensemen from this class. Book it.

Would be ecstatic to walk away with him. Probably my favourite player along with Reichel this year.

 

[JSn0w93]

Speaking of Soo guys. Wouldn't be surprised to see Dubas look at Calisti and Constantinou as well.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

O'Rourke is a second rounder.

He's closer to 44 than 15. May be a target for us if we acquire another second.

His range is half way between 15 and 44. Late 20's or early 30's. It depends how much the Leafs trade back, or rather what they get if they do trade back. Nothing stopping the Leafs from trading up either.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Speaking of Soo guys. Wouldn't be surprised to see Dubas look at Calisti and Constantinou as well.

If Dubas wanted Constantinou, he would have drafted him in 2019 with a late round pick. It was fairly obvious that his offensive game would have improved as he got older, especially if he went to a better team, and that is effectively what happened. His defensive game is still well-below average, and that prevents his NHL chances. Ditto for Calisti, although he sucked last year.

Drafting either is like drafting Duszak, and I would never draft Duszak.

O'Rourke, Kerins and Pytlik are the only ones I would consider from the Soo. Maybe Malik if we are in the 7th round and the other goalie options got snapped up quickly earlier on.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Five Leafs questions to ponder as busy time, we assume, awaits GM Dubas | Toronto Sun

Do the Leafs have to take a right-shot defenceman with their first-round pick?

No. It’s a need, but think of it this way: By the time that player at No. 15 is ready to make an impact in the NHL (let’s not entertain the chance that the Leafs whiff with the pick and the player never makes it), no matter what position he plays, we would expect that the right-side holes on the blue line will have been filled. Having said that, Braden Schneider, a right-shooting defenceman, would be a fine choice. Perhaps the Leafs cast an eye to Sweden’s Helge Grans, another righty on the blue line. And though he shoots left, Ryan O’Rourke of Sault Ste. Marie is said to have the Leafs’ attention. The Leafs would be best served by taking the player they deem to be the best available, no matter the position.

 

[stickty111]

I like O'Rourke, but at 15 I'd be shocked and probably disappointed.

Yeah at 15, thats bad value but I highly doubt Dubas takes him there. He would have to move back mutiple times to get in his range. The more likely scenario as the tweet mentions is we trade Johnsson/Andersen for late 1sts/2nds
I'm with you. I like the player but at the right range.

Only thing I guess I'm kind of concerned about, I know Dubas probably doesn't think this way which is good, but I don't want him to get set on one scenario, where lets say a faller gets to 15, but he trades back.

 

[stickty111]

His range is half way between 15 and 44. Late 20's or early 30's. It depends how much the Leafs trade back, or rather what they get if they do trade back. Nothing stopping the Leafs from trading up either.

Yeah I'm not ruling this out either. I feel there is a chance.
Kind of would like someone to ask Dubas about a trade up scenario tomorrow. Not that he would give anything away on his intentions, but you could get some kind of read if he will consider it.

 

[hockeywiz542]

With six late-round picks, how can the Leafs find the next Brown or Johnsson? - The Athletic

There is the argument that NHL teams should lean heavily on European players in late rounds because the window to sign them to an ELC is longer than a CHL player, and therefore, they have more time to develop in their own program.

Of the 42 active seventh-round picks in the NHL, 10 of them hail from Sweden.

Few scouts are as plugged into Swedish hockey as Thommie Bergman, the Leafs scout who has been with the team since 2005. To strike gold in the late rounds once again, the Leafs will have to rely on Bergman. One scout described Bergman’s in-depth understanding of Swedish players as “notorious.” Sweden has two quality leagues from which to draft from: the first-tier SHL and the second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan.

Per Leafs team policy, Bergman was not available for an interview. One person who has worked closely with Bergman told The Athletic that he, like Dubas, values skill very highly when looking for late-round picks. Another scout said Bergman is highly opinionated and sticks to those opinions. When you have a track record of success, that opinion should be valued. Bergman has had late-round success with his suggestions to draft Anton Stralman (seventh round, 2005) and Carl Gunnarsson (seventh round, 2007).

Bergman also has an understanding of which European organizations develop players more in line with the Leafs’ approach. If the Leafs are going to keep their players in Europe for as long as they did with Engvall, for example, that knowledge can only stand to benefit the Leafs.

.................

On that front, a conversation I had with a European NHL scout revealed a few names to keep an eye on in the later rounds:

Elliot Ekmark: The 5-foot-9, 162-pound center with Sweden’s Linkoping U20 team is ranked 41st among European skaters by Central Scouting. An injury derailed his season, leaving him, according to the scout, “behind the eight-ball a bit.” But he’s still “highly intelligent” and a quick skater who plays a physical game despite his size. He scored 12 goals and 26 points in 31 games.

Albert Lyckasen: Ekmark’s teammate is a small defenceman (5-foot-11, 187 pounds) who “plays on the attack all the time.” He’s a great skater and that carries his game. There’s a lot of risk in his game and his defensive game needs plenty of work, which is probably why he fell to No. 84 on Central Scouting’s rankings.

Alexander Ljungkrantz: “An interesting prospect,” according to the scout, Ljungkratz is a 6-foot-1, 179-pound winger who is difficult to play against. He has the ability to make plays but can also drive to and crash the net.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

No thank-you to a goalie in the 1st round.

The Leafs need a stud goalie in the system badly. Someone to take over the reigns internally and who can develop with the team and be here for possibly two decades.

The last goalie they drafted in the 1st round was 15 years ago with Rask. Imagine having someone like him or Price in your system and on your team all that time. And then drafting someone 15 years from now to groom and ultimately take over.

I’ve never been averse to taking a goalie in the 1st round. Probably wouldn’t take one 1st overall like Fleury and DiPietro when there are franchise altering players available with the pick. But mid-1st this year where the Leafs are drafting — I’m all for it.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I'm starting to wonder whether Zary might be their guy. In the past couple of years, the Leafs seem to see values in 6 feet or under players with high skill sets / hockey IQ with suspect skating. They can discern whether the skating is good enough for improvement under their development system. Both Sandin and Robertson fall into this category. Zary has been compared to Horvat in his complete game and leadership demeanor. Horvat also had skating issue when he first came into the league. Maybe the Leafs will try to trade down to draft Zary.

Zary has a high end skill set, IQ and big motor. I'd be surprised if he remained at center in his professional career though. His first step quickness is really lacking. I'm not sure he could defend a Crosby or Matthews at the NHL level.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

I just hope we trade up in the second round to land either grans, o Rourke , or barron. All 3 look really solid. If we can come away with say Amirov/ Jarvis and one of the 3 above with our second that would be a great start to the draft.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

If Dubas thinks Soup can be our starter, I wonder if we move Andersen for either a defenseman with a similar cap hit or a pick/prospect and use the cap space in our pursuit of Petro.