I'm a fan of Steve Dangle, but he's not exactly 'plugged in' beyond his friendship and [technical] employer/employee relationship with Chris Johnston.
They had a bunch of 'end of the year specials', and one of them was where the three podcast hosts went around the table making big predictions based on.... nothing beyond gut feelings and reading the tea leaves, honestly. It made for a fun show, but nothing anybody should take a firm source.
Marner wants to stay in Toronto. The problem is, Marner feels he is every bit as good as Matthews and should be paid accordingly. Which I don't begrudge him, but the Leafs cannot pay two guys 13+ million dollars a year AAV and expect to ice a good team, no matter how optimistic the cap projections are.
So, I think it will come down to the Leafs giving Marner a number and him weighing how much he loves Toronto vs how much money/affirmation he wants.