GDT: NHL 2024 Draft Lottery: Tuesday, May 7th, 6:30 pm | ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS, Fubo (live stream with free trial) (Habs pick 5th)

[Gravity]

MOD edit: Teams can move up maximum of 10 spots. It's a count down of all 16 teams that missed playoffs.

Current Draft Order:

16. St. Louis Blues
15. Detroit Red Wings
14. Pittsburgh Penguins (SJS own this pick due to Karlsson trade)
13. Minnesota Wild
12. Philadelphia Flyers
11. Buffalo Sabres
10. New Jersey Devils
9. Calgary Flames
8. Seattle Kraken
7. Ottawa Senators
6. Utah Hockey Club
5. Montreal Canadiens
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
3. Anaheim Ducks
2. Chicago Blackhawks
1. San Jose Sharks


Just excited about the Celebrini sweepstakes. T-minus 3 days until we find out!

I have this horrible gut feeling Chicago or Utah wins 1st Ov.

Click to read more...

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's looking like a complete crap shoot beyond #1. We are going to have to trust our scouts at this point, whether we are #2 or #7. I won't feel good about this draft until the end of 2026 season.

Just a matter of it looking like the 2 guys we almost all universally want, Demidov/Lindstrom, being taken just ahead of our reach.. again.

Then we just leave it up to the scouts who have earned the trust.. just hoping its Sennecke/Catton, and if not then Iginla.

 

[waitin425]

Nah, Demidov is #2 prospect. Remove the Russia factor and it’s no contest. Kid has skill and is a gamer.

I agree. I have him by a pretty significant margin at #2. But, I am sitting here watching highlight videos and eating doritos. Ill trust the sources Bobby Mac has over my own uneducated drivel.

 

[Hannibal]

It would suck to miss on the top fowwsrd because of useless ot points once again.

 

[waitin425]

Just a matter of it looking like the 2 guys we almost all universally want, Demidov/Lindstrom, being taken just ahead of our reach.. again.

Then we just leave it up to the scouts who have earned the trust.. just hoping its Sennecke/Catton, and if not then Iginla.

I actually have Iginla at three right now. Macklin/Demi is my top tier for sure. Then in tier 2, I have moved Lindtrom, Helenius, Iginla and Catton around....daily. As of today and the highlights from U18....I really like the cut of Iginla's jib.

 

[Kosseca]

I like your tiered idea! But I still think position should be weighted.

1st - 35%
2nd - 25%
3rd - 17.5%
4th - 12.5%
5th - 10%

All teams can move from 1st to 5th in the scenario.

6th - 35%
7th - 25%
8th - 17.5%
9th - 12.5%
10th - 10%

Any of these teams can land 6-10.

11th - 32.5%
12th - 22.5%
13th - 17.5%
14th - 12.5%
15th - 10%
16th - 5%

Any team can land 11th-16th

You could make it weighted, but I still think that going 20% each is the ultimate tanking deterrent. So at this point, it is a question of how much you want to prevent that.

You can also remove the "can't win the draft 2yrs out of 5" rule.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.

www.tsn.ca

Crazy stuff happening after Celebrini. Basically throw out the BPA from 2-10+ and take the guy you want. If Bob says it's unpredictable, it is. I can see many draft boards in the top 10 being different and therefore, we might see a fair amount of trades this time around. Some teams will probably think there is a real BPA to be had where other teams do not.

Iggy at 10 and Esierman at 13th? WOW! I think Eiserman slip when he is still producing warrants massive discussion as to why? What is the context into his slip in the draft year? Is it a skating, energy, or attitude problem? It just don't add up for me.

Bob has the D men ranked higher than most forwards. Reasonable.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I actually have Iginla at three right now. Macklin/Demi is my top tier for sure. Then in tier 2, I have moved Lindtrom, Helenius, Iginla and Catton around....daily. As of today and the highlights from U18....I really like the cut of Iginla's jib.

Iginla's rise in the 2nd half can't be ignored. Backed it up at the U18's. He has his father's genes and there is competition in his family I am sure. Has good size, good attitude, good goal scoring ability, and plays a hard north/south game.

I have to trust Bob so now I have Iggy slightly ahead of Eiserman. Wish we got to see Lindstrom at the U18's.

Jarome's rise also happened around the same time as Tig's in their draft year. Then there was a massive breakout the year after.

 

[Kosseca]

i'm wondering if this lack of consensus will see teams moving in the top 5/10

 

[Habs Halifax]

i'm wondering if this lack of consensus will see teams moving in the top 5/10

Yup, I think there will be. Some teams will have undisputed BPA's and other teams will have no problem moving down because they like 5 guys in a group.

 

[Runner77]

It's looking like a complete crap shoot beyond #1. We are going to have to trust our scouts at this point, whether we are #2 or #7. I won't feel good about this draft until the end of 2026 season.

If there was ever a year to move up from a pick in the 20s, this one is it.

Bank on scouting uncertainty provided the Habs’ read of the prospect pool is less uncertain than most.

From Bobby Mac:

As one scout put it, “Celebrini is going No. 1, but the next five or six teams [picking after No. 1] might all get the No. 2 prospect on their [respective] lists. There’s that much varied opinion [on the top prospects after Celebrini].”

The lack of clear consensus beyond Celebrini — from No. 2 through to No. 10 and beyond — would be unprecedented.

I’ve been doing draft rankings like this one for more than 35 years, and I don’t recall a year where the Top 10 is such a hodgepodge of opinion.

«and beyond » bodes well for the Habs’ 2nd first rounder, esp. if it’s packaged to move up to the 11-16 OA range.

 

[The Great Weal]

It would suck to miss on the top fowwsrd because of useless ot points once again.

The Jackets were 10 points below us and had 12 loser points while we had 16. You could remove half of our OTL points and we'd still be ahead of them.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

It would suck to miss on the top fowwsrd because of useless ot points once again.

We were 10 points away from finishing 4th last so they didn't have a huge impact.

If anything, we should be thankful we were only 10-16 in OT/SO games because if we went 16-10 instead we'd have finished 10th last.

 

[sheed36]

McKenzie's top 15 May 2024 ranking vs January 2024 top 15 mid season ranking.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

McKenzie's top 15 May 2024 ranking vs January 2024 top 15 mid season ranking.

View attachment 865887

huh that's a lot of movement. is that usually the case from Jan to May?

 

[Habs Halifax]

McKenzie's top 15 May 2024 ranking vs January 2024 top 15 mid season ranking.

View attachment 865887

I love this kind of stuff. I'd even add his list from September to see the variance. Draft year is huge but these kids are growing so fast at different rates.

Drafting 17/18 year olds and trying to project it forward is a very tough business. Even with the amount of scouting we have today.

huh that's a lot of movement. is that usually the case from Jan to May?

There is always movement but not that much. It's one of the areas of my personal focus. I always compare beginning, mid, end of season rankings from Bob. He's not perfect but he gets his information from actual scouts.

 

[HabbyGuy]

huh that's a lot of movement. is that usually the case from Jan to May?

No, this draft really is different from the usual, with it being so wide open. I personally think the top 2 should be locks, but after that who knows. It's really going to be interesting to see how this draft unfolds and who may be available at our pick. (If we don't win a lottery)

Teams can go in so many different directions.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

They rarely do, but Pietrangelo and Chara did, that’s not never but yeah it’s rare

Not that I consider him in the same bracket but Douglas Hamilton was also attainable via free agency.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

No, this draft really is different from the usual, with it being so wide open. I personally think the top 2 should be locks, but after that who knows. It's really going to be interesting to see how this draft unfolds and who may be available at our pick. (If we don't win a lottery)

Agreed. Top should be locks IMO as well..

Lots of variance between 3-12 in my eyes, and it’s not because the players aren’t good.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Might be worst case scenario for us unless we stay at 5.

Why? Just trade down and let a team very high on a specific player get him so we can collect more assets.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

They rarely do, but Pietrangelo and Chara did, that’s not never but yeah it’s rare

Because both were under valued by their original teams. Ottawa told Chara he had to take less in order for them to retain everyone, and valued Redden over Chara. Chara walked.

St. Louis pretty much said the same to Pietrangelo. They refused to go over $8.5m and wouldn't give him an NMC. He got $8.8m & a full NMC from Vegas. They lost him over $300,000 and an NMC clause. It should be noted that no St. Louis players have NMCs, but many have pretty tight NTCs.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Why? Just trade down and let a team very high on a specific player get him so we can collect more assets.

We don't need more assets, we need better quality offensive players in our pool.

 

[HabbyGuy]

Agreed. Top should be locks IMO as well..

Lots of variance between 3-12 in my eyes, and it’s not because the players aren’t good.

Yeah I think we're getting a good player no matter how it unfolds, but because of the nature of this draft we may get very forunate and get one who shouldn't be there. I'd love to see Demidov drop into our laps, even if I wouldn't let him pass 2, others might.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

We don't need more assets, we need better quality offensive players in our pool.

We always need more assets. It's what you do with the added assets that matter. If you manage to trade down still get your player and collect more picks or prospects and then you trade away some of these picks+player for a good young player, it's smarter than drafting the same player a couple rank higher.

 

[Deebs]

We don't need more assets, we need better quality offensive players in our pool.

Absolutely. No more trading down nonsense.....trade up if anything. Spend our currency. The Wpg pick, one of our young defensemen, 2nd or 3rd rounder....make it happen. Let's get the guy we want.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

We don't need more assets, we need better quality offensive players in our pool.

Then trade up. Why make it so dramatic if we drop to 7th overall. It's like we will miss out on the greatest talent ever. The 2-12 players are all interchangeable anyway.

Absolutely. No more trading down nonsense.....trade up if anything. Spend our currency. The Wpg pick, one of our young defensemen, 2nd or 3rd rounder....make it happen. Let's get the guy we want.

You can do both, trade down + trade up to get two picks between 12-15.