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NHL 2019/20 Team Rankings

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willmma

willmma

Registered User
Jan 5, 2017
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4,083
HERE WE GO AGAIN FOR 2019/20


These team rankings are based on the ELO rating system.

This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.

For the purposes of my calculations, each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

NOTE: I changed the scoring system so that OT/SO wins are lesser than regular wins (half a win). And an OT/SO loss is half a loss.


After 1077 games played this season the rankings for Mar 11 2020 are:


[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR="bgcolor: #0000FF"][TD]#[/TD][TD]Team[/TD][TD]# GP[/TD][TD]Lowest Score (#)[/TD][TD]Average Score (#)[/TD][TD]Highest Score (#)[/TD][TD]Elo Score[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1[/TD][TD]Philadelphia Flyers[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2366 (6) [/TD][TD]2551 (5) [/TD][TD]2806 (2) [/TD][TD]2731[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2[/TD][TD]Boston Bruins[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2440 (2) [/TD][TD]2602 (1) [/TD][TD]2737 (4) [/TD][TD]2688[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3[/TD][TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2223 (30) [/TD][TD]2420 (29) [/TD][TD]2683 (18) [/TD][TD]2683[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4[/TD][TD]Vegas Golden Knights[/TD][TD]71[/TD][TD]2320 (18) [/TD][TD]2511 (16) [/TD][TD]2730 (7) [/TD][TD]2666[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5[/TD][TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2351 (8) [/TD][TD]2505 (18) [/TD][TD]2695 (14) [/TD][TD]2604[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]6[/TD][TD]Minnesota Wild[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2336 (14) [/TD][TD]2508 (17) [/TD][TD]2671 (20) [/TD][TD]2578[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]7[/TD][TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2344 (11) [/TD][TD]2527 (10) [/TD][TD]2671 (19) [/TD][TD]2563[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]8[/TD][TD]Nashville Predators[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2292 (25) [/TD][TD]2476 (22) [/TD][TD]2629 (24) [/TD][TD]2562[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]9[/TD][TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2408 (3) [/TD][TD]2577 (3) [/TD][TD]2717 (11) [/TD][TD]2556[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]10[/TD][TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2320 (19) [/TD][TD]2542 (7) [/TD][TD]2701 (13) [/TD][TD]2556[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]11[/TD][TD]New York Rangers[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2384 (5) [/TD][TD]2522 (12) [/TD][TD]2690 (15) [/TD][TD]2549[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]12[/TD][TD]Calgary Flames[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2328 (17) [/TD][TD]2497 (20) [/TD][TD]2667 (21) [/TD][TD]2532[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]13[/TD][TD]Florida Panthers[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2389 (4) [/TD][TD]2529 (9) [/TD][TD]2730 (6) [/TD][TD]2529[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]14[/TD][TD]Anaheim Ducks[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2285 (26) [/TD][TD]2440 (28) [/TD][TD]2642 (22) [/TD][TD]2524[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]15[/TD][TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2310 (22) [/TD][TD]2513 (15) [/TD][TD]2709 (12) [/TD][TD]2521[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]16[/TD][TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD][TD]68[/TD][TD]2364 (7) [/TD][TD]2526 (11) [/TD][TD]2726 (9) [/TD][TD]2519[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]17[/TD][TD]New Jersey Devils[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2277 (27) [/TD][TD]2446 (27) [/TD][TD]2599 (29) [/TD][TD]2517[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]18[/TD][TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2444 (1) [/TD][TD]2590 (2) [/TD][TD]2823 (1) [/TD][TD]2499[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19[/TD][TD]Washington Capitals[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2349 (9) [/TD][TD]2563 (4) [/TD][TD]2724 (10) [/TD][TD]2451[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]20[/TD][TD]Chicago Blackhawks[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2341 (12) [/TD][TD]2466 (23) [/TD][TD]2610 (28) [/TD][TD]2447[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]21[/TD][TD]Columbus Blue Jackets[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2336 (13) [/TD][TD]2514 (14) [/TD][TD]2728 (8) [/TD][TD]2446[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]22[/TD][TD]Arizona Coyotes[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2346 (10) [/TD][TD]2484 (21) [/TD][TD]2610 (27) [/TD][TD]2434[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]23[/TD][TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2311 (20) [/TD][TD]2548 (6) [/TD][TD]2685 (17) [/TD][TD]2420[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]24[/TD][TD]San Jose Sharks[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2311 (21) [/TD][TD]2453 (26) [/TD][TD]2619 (26) [/TD][TD]2409[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]25[/TD][TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2334 (15) [/TD][TD]2502 (19) [/TD][TD]2686 (16) [/TD][TD]2391[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]26[/TD][TD]Ottawa Senators[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]2255 (29) [/TD][TD]2404 (30) [/TD][TD]2591 (30) [/TD][TD]2386[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]27[/TD][TD]Buffalo Sabres[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2330 (16) [/TD][TD]2454 (25) [/TD][TD]2623 (25) [/TD][TD]2377[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]28[/TD][TD]Dallas Stars[/TD][TD]69[/TD][TD]2295 (24) [/TD][TD]2522 (13) [/TD][TD]2733 (5) [/TD][TD]2370[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]29[/TD][TD]Montreal Canadiens[/TD][TD]71[/TD][TD]2272 (28) [/TD][TD]2465 (24) [/TD][TD]2642 (23) [/TD][TD]2358[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]30[/TD][TD]Detroit Red Wings[/TD][TD]71[/TD][TD]2197 (31) [/TD][TD]2313 (31) [/TD][TD]2586 (31) [/TD][TD]2330[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]31[/TD][TD]New York Islanders[/TD][TD]68[/TD][TD]2304 (23) [/TD][TD]2530 (8) [/TD][TD]2743 (3) [/TD][TD]2304[/TD][/TR]
[/TBODY][/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR="bgcolor: #0000FF"][TD]Division[/TD][TD]Avg Score[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Atlantic[/TD][TD]2461[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Central[/TD][TD]2524[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Metropolitan[/TD][TD]2492[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Pacific[/TD][TD]2525[/TD][/TR]
[/TBODY][/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR="bgcolor: #0000FF"][TD]Conference[/TD][TD]Avg Score[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Eastern[/TD][TD]2476[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Western[/TD][TD]2525[/TD][/TR]
[/TBODY][/TABLE]
 
Last edited:
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Latest score changes

[2019-10-02, Vancouver Canucks (2): 2500 -> 2450, Edmonton Oilers (3): 2500 -> 2550 ]
[2019-10-02, Washington Capitals (3): 2500 -> 2525, St. Louis Blues (2): 2500 -> 2475 , OTSO]
[2019-10-02, Ottawa Senators (3): 2500 -> 2450, Toronto Maple Leafs (5): 2500 -> 2550 ]
[2019-10-02, San Jose Sharks (1): 2500 -> 2450, Vegas Golden Knights (4): 2500 -> 2550 ]
 
Latest score changes

[2019-10-03, Arizona Coyotes (1): 2500 -> 2450, Anaheim Ducks (2): 2500 -> 2550 ]
[2019-10-03, Montreal Canadiens (3): 2500 -> 2475, Carolina Hurricanes (4): 2500 -> 2525 , OTSO]
[2019-10-03, Calgary Flames (3): 2500 -> 2450, Colorado Avalanche (5): 2500 -> 2550 ]
[2019-10-03, Boston Bruins (2): 2500 -> 2550, Dallas Stars (1): 2500 -> 2450 ]
[2019-10-03, Minnesota Wild (2): 2500 -> 2450, Nashville Predators (5): 2500 -> 2550 ]
[2019-10-03, Winnipeg Jets (4): 2500 -> 2450, New York Rangers (6): 2500 -> 2550 ]
[2019-10-03, Buffalo Sabres (3): 2500 -> 2550, Pittsburgh Penguins (1): 2500 -> 2450 ]
[2019-10-03, Florida Panthers (2): 2500 -> 2450, Tampa Bay Lightning (5): 2500 -> 2550 ]
 
Latest Changes

[2019-10-04, Toronto Maple Leafs (4): 2550 -> 2593, Columbus Blue Jackets (1): 2500 -> 2457 ]
[2019-10-04, Winnipeg Jets (5): 2450 -> 2482, New Jersey Devils (4): 2500 -> 2468 , OTSO]
[2019-10-04, Washington Capitals (2): 2525 -> 2571, New York Islanders (1): 2500 -> 2454 ]
[2019-10-04, Chicago Blackhawks (3): 2500 -> 2450, Philadelphia Flyers (4): 2500 -> 2550 ]
[2019-10-04, Vegas Golden Knights (5): 2550 -> 2586, San Jose Sharks (1): 2450 -> 2414 ]
[2019-10-05, San Jose Sharks (1): 2414 -> 2383, Anaheim Ducks (3): 2550 -> 2581 ]
[2019-10-05, Boston Bruins (1): 2550 -> 2586, Arizona Coyotes (0): 2450 -> 2414 ]
[2019-10-05, New Jersey Devils (2): 2468 -> 2430, Buffalo Sabres (7): 2550 -> 2588 ]
[2019-10-05, Vancouver Canucks (0): 2450 -> 2400, Calgary Flames (3): 2450 -> 2500 ]
[2019-10-05, Minnesota Wild (2): 2450 -> 2414, Colorado Avalanche (4): 2550 -> 2586 ]
[2019-10-05, Los Angeles Kings (5): 2500 -> 2457, Edmonton Oilers (6): 2550 -> 2593 ]
[2019-10-05, Tampa Bay Lightning (3): 2550 -> 2486, Florida Panthers (4): 2450 -> 2514 ]
[2019-10-05, Detroit Red Wings (5): 2500 -> 2557, Nashville Predators (3): 2550 -> 2493 ]
[2019-10-05, New York Rangers (4): 2550 -> 2586, Ottawa Senators (1): 2450 -> 2414 ]
[2019-10-05, Columbus Blue Jackets (2): 2457 -> 2406, Pittsburgh Penguins (7): 2450 -> 2501 ]
[2019-10-05, Dallas Stars (2): 2450 -> 2404, St. Louis Blues (3): 2475 -> 2521 ]
[2019-10-05, Montreal Canadiens (6): 2475 -> 2516, Toronto Maple Leafs (5): 2593 -> 2552 , OTSO]
[2019-10-05, Carolina Hurricanes (3): 2525 -> 2557, Washington Capitals (2): 2571 -> 2539 , OTSO]
 
Latest changes

[2019-10-06, Tampa Bay Lightning (3): 2486 -> 2471, Carolina Hurricanes (4): 2557 -> 2572 , OTSO]
[2019-10-06, Dallas Stars (3): 2404 -> 2375, Detroit Red Wings (4): 2557 -> 2586 ]
[2019-10-06, Winnipeg Jets (1): 2482 -> 2428, New York Islanders (4): 2454 -> 2508 ]
 
Latest changes

[2019-10-07, Buffalo Sabres (3): 2588 -> 2539, Columbus Blue Jackets (4): 2406 -> 2455 , OTSO]
[2019-10-07, St. Louis Blues (3): 2521 -> 2575, Toronto Maple Leafs (2): 2552 -> 2498 ]
 
willmma said:
HERE WE GO AGAIN FOR 2019/20


These team rankings are based on the ELO rating system.

This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.

For the purposes of my calculations, each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

NOTE: I changed the scoring system so that OT/SO wins are lesser than regular wins (half a win). And an OT/SO loss is half a loss.


After 35 games played this season the rankings for Oct 08 2019 are:


[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR="bgcolor: #0000FF"][TD]#[/TD][TD]Team[/TD][TD]# GP[/TD][TD]Lowest Score[/TD][TD]Average Score[/TD][TD]Highest Score[/TD][TD]Elo Score[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1[/TD][TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2571[/TD][TD]2593[/TD][TD]2593[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2[/TD][TD]Boston Bruins[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2568[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3[/TD][TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2568[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4[/TD][TD]Detroit Red Wings[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2571[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5[/TD][TD]New York Rangers[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2568[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]6[/TD][TD]Vegas Golden Knights[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2568[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][TD]2586[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]7[/TD][TD]Anaheim Ducks[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2565[/TD][TD]2581[/TD][TD]2581[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]8[/TD][TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2475[/TD][TD]2523[/TD][TD]2575[/TD][TD]2575[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]9[/TD][TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2551[/TD][TD]2572[/TD][TD]2572[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]10[/TD][TD]Philadelphia Flyers[/TD][TD]1[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2550[/TD][TD]2550[/TD][TD]2550[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]11[/TD][TD]Buffalo Sabres[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2559[/TD][TD]2588[/TD][TD]2539[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]12[/TD][TD]Washington Capitals[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2545[/TD][TD]2571[/TD][TD]2539[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]13[/TD][TD]Montreal Canadiens[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2475[/TD][TD]2495[/TD][TD]2516[/TD][TD]2516[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]14[/TD][TD]Florida Panthers[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2450[/TD][TD]2482[/TD][TD]2514[/TD][TD]2514[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]15[/TD][TD]New York Islanders[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2454[/TD][TD]2481[/TD][TD]2508[/TD][TD]2508[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]16[/TD][TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2450[/TD][TD]2475[/TD][TD]2501[/TD][TD]2501[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]17[/TD][TD]Calgary Flames[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2450[/TD][TD]2475[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]18[/TD][TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD][TD]4[/TD][TD]2498[/TD][TD]2548[/TD][TD]2593[/TD][TD]2498[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19[/TD][TD]Nashville Predators[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2493[/TD][TD]2521[/TD][TD]2550[/TD][TD]2493[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]20[/TD][TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2471[/TD][TD]2502[/TD][TD]2550[/TD][TD]2471[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]21[/TD][TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD][TD]1[/TD][TD]2457[/TD][TD]2457[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2457[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]22[/TD][TD]Columbus Blue Jackets[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2406[/TD][TD]2439[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2455[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]23[/TD][TD]Chicago Blackhawks[/TD][TD]1[/TD][TD]2450[/TD][TD]2450[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2450[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]24[/TD][TD]New Jersey Devils[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2430[/TD][TD]2449[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2430[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]25[/TD][TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2428[/TD][TD]2453[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2428[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]26[/TD][TD]Arizona Coyotes[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2414[/TD][TD]2432[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2414[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]27[/TD][TD]Minnesota Wild[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2414[/TD][TD]2432[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2414[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]28[/TD][TD]Ottawa Senators[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2414[/TD][TD]2432[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2414[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]29[/TD][TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]2400[/TD][TD]2425[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2400[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]30[/TD][TD]San Jose Sharks[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2383[/TD][TD]2415[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2383[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]31[/TD][TD]Dallas Stars[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]2375[/TD][TD]2409[/TD][TD]2500[/TD][TD]2375[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR="bgcolor: #0000FF"][TD]Division[/TD][TD]Avg Score[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Atlantic[/TD][TD]2515[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Central[/TD][TD]2474[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Metropolitan[/TD][TD]2517[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Pacific[/TD][TD]2489[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR="bgcolor: #0000FF"][TD]Conference[/TD][TD]Avg Score[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Eastern[/TD][TD]2516[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Western[/TD][TD]2482[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Click to expand...

I wonder if, in a purely objective analysis like this, it would be worth considering any game that goes to overtime as a tie. Surely OT and shootout results aren't predictive given the format.

Any game that goes to OT should move the two teams closer together.
 
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Kranix said:
How do you calculate which teams are weak and strong?
Click to expand...

All teams start as equal with 2500 points.

For example when the Canucks played the Oilers they were both equal at 2500. The game results in a point shift. Oilers gained 50 for the win. Canucks lost 50 for the loss.
Oilers score became 2550 and Canucks score became 2450. As a result, the Canucks are now "weaker". They lost again to Calgary who at the time was equal to them with 2450.
Canucks dropped further down. Every loss causes a team to lose more points and become even weaker.

If a strong team with 2650 plays a weak team with 2350 then the 100 points wont be 50/50 rather some other variation like 70 if there is an upset or 30 if the stronger wins.

Hope that helps.
 
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willmma said:
All teams start as equal with 2500 points.

For example when the Canucks played the Oilers they were both equal at 2500. The game results in a point shift. Oilers gained 50 for the win. Canucks lost 50 for the loss.
Oilers score became 2550 and Canucks score became 2450. As a result, the Canucks are now "weaker". They lost again to Calgary who at the time was equal to them with 2450.
Canucks dropped further down. Every loss causes a team to lose more points and become even weaker.

If a strong team with 2650 plays a weak team with 2350 then the 100 points wont be 50/50 rather some other variation like 70 if there is an upset or 30 if the stronger wins.

Hope that helps.
Click to expand...
Okay thanks. I figured it was wins/losses, but I thought you might have something else because it's so early on.
 
Latest changes

[2019-10-08, Los Angeles Kings (4): 2457 -> 2488, Calgary Flames (3): 2500 -> 2469 , OTSO]
[2019-10-08, Anaheim Ducks (3): 2581 -> 2632, Detroit Red Wings (1): 2586 -> 2535 ]
[2019-10-08, Carolina Hurricanes (6): 2572 -> 2614, Florida Panthers (3): 2514 -> 2472 ]
[2019-10-08, San Jose Sharks (2): 2383 -> 2348, Nashville Predators (5): 2493 -> 2528 ]
[2019-10-08, Edmonton Oilers (5): 2593 -> 2631, New York Islanders (2): 2508 -> 2470 ]
[2019-10-08, Winnipeg Jets (4): 2428 -> 2488, Pittsburgh Penguins (1): 2501 -> 2441 ]
[2019-10-08, Boston Bruins (4): 2586 -> 2636, Vegas Golden Knights (3): 2586 -> 2536 ]
[2019-10-08, Dallas Stars (4): 2375 -> 2422, Washington Capitals (3): 2539 -> 2492 , OTSO]
 
Anglesmith said:
I wonder if, in a purely objective analysis like this, it would be worth considering any game that goes to overtime as a tie. Surely OT and shootout results aren't predictive given the format.

Any game that goes to OT should move the two teams closer together.
Click to expand...

Yes, the question of OT or even worse SO is a tough one to handle. Over the past couple of years I have had discussions around how to best handle those.

Ultimately I decided to not consider an OT or SO win the same as a regulation win. But also not to consider it a tie either. I consider it half a win and half a loss.
In ELO a win scores a 1, a tie is 0.5 and a loss is 0. For OT/SO I consider a win 0.75 (half a win) and a loss 0.25 (half a loss).

That said if a really strong team won OT/SO against a weaker team, they will actually lose points for not performing to expectations. Similarly if a weak team loses in OT/SO against a strong team, they could gain points for exceeding expectations. Which ends up moving them closer together.

Also, if the weak team won OT/SO against a strong team, they will gain points and the stronger team will lose points. Moving them closer together - but not as much as a regulation win.
 
Latest changes

[2019-10-09, Montreal Canadiens (4): 2516 -> 2494, Buffalo Sabres (5): 2539 -> 2561 , OTSO]
[2019-10-09, New Jersey Devils (0): 2430 -> 2397, Philadelphia Flyers (4): 2550 -> 2583 ]
[2019-10-09, Los Angeles Kings (2): 2488 -> 2426, Vancouver Canucks (8): 2400 -> 2462 ]
[2019-10-10, Vegas Golden Knights (1): 2536 -> 2469, Arizona Coyotes (4): 2414 -> 2481 ]
[2019-10-10, San Jose Sharks (5): 2348 -> 2412, Chicago Blackhawks (4): 2450 -> 2386 ]
[2019-10-10, Boston Bruins (2): 2636 -> 2579, Colorado Avalanche (4): 2586 -> 2643 ]
[2019-10-10, Calgary Flames (3): 2469 -> 2487, Dallas Stars (2): 2422 -> 2404 , OTSO]
[2019-10-10, Detroit Red Wings (4): 2535 -> 2579, Montreal Canadiens (2): 2494 -> 2450 ]
[2019-10-10, Edmonton Oilers (4): 2631 -> 2627, New Jersey Devils (3): 2397 -> 2401 , OTSO]
[2019-10-10, Washington Capitals (5): 2492 -> 2447, Nashville Predators (6): 2528 -> 2573 ]
[2019-10-10, St. Louis Blues (6): 2575 -> 2603, Ottawa Senators (4): 2414 -> 2386 ]
[2019-10-10, Anaheim Ducks (1): 2632 -> 2557, Pittsburgh Penguins (2): 2441 -> 2516 ]
[2019-10-10, Tampa Bay Lightning (7): 2471 -> 2525, Toronto Maple Leafs (3): 2498 -> 2444 ]
[2019-10-10, Minnesota Wild (2): 2414 -> 2374, Winnipeg Jets (5): 2488 -> 2528 ]
 
Latest changes

[2019-10-11, Florida Panthers (2): 2472 -> 2460, Buffalo Sabres (3): 2561 -> 2573 , OTSO]
[2019-10-11, New York Islanders (2): 2470 -> 2440, Carolina Hurricanes (5): 2614 -> 2644 ]
[2019-10-11, Anaheim Ducks (2): 2557 -> 2593, Columbus Blue Jackets (1): 2455 -> 2419 ]
[2019-10-12, New Jersey Devils (0): 2401 -> 2375, Boston Bruins (3): 2579 -> 2605 ]
[2019-10-12, Columbus Blue Jackets (3): 2419 -> 2498, Carolina Hurricanes (2): 2644 -> 2565 ]
[2019-10-12, Winnipeg Jets (3): 2528 -> 2534, Chicago Blackhawks (2): 2386 -> 2380 , OTSO]
[2019-10-12, Arizona Coyotes (2): 2481 -> 2478, Colorado Avalanche (3): 2643 -> 2646 , OTSO]
[2019-10-12, Washington Capitals (4): 2447 -> 2491, Dallas Stars (1): 2404 -> 2360 ]
[2019-10-12, Toronto Maple Leafs (5): 2444 -> 2513, Detroit Red Wings (2): 2579 -> 2510 ]
[2019-10-12, Nashville Predators (4): 2573 -> 2503, Los Angeles Kings (7): 2426 -> 2496 ]
[2019-10-12, Pittsburgh Penguins (7): 2516 -> 2547, Minnesota Wild (4): 2374 -> 2343 ]
[2019-10-12, St. Louis Blues (3): 2603 -> 2532, Montreal Canadiens (6): 2450 -> 2521 ]
[2019-10-12, Florida Panthers (2): 2460 -> 2432, New York Islanders (3): 2440 -> 2468 , OTSO]
[2019-10-12, Edmonton Oilers (4): 2627 -> 2671, New York Rangers (1): 2586 -> 2542 ]
[2019-10-12, Tampa Bay Lightning (2): 2525 -> 2456, Ottawa Senators (4): 2386 -> 2455 ]
[2019-10-12, Philadelphia Flyers (2): 2583 -> 2541, Vancouver Canucks (3): 2462 -> 2504 , OTSO]
[2019-10-12, Calgary Flames (2): 2487 -> 2434, Vegas Golden Knights (6): 2469 -> 2522 ]
[2019-10-13, Vegas Golden Knights (5): 2522 -> 2568, Los Angeles Kings (2): 2496 -> 2450 ]
[2019-10-13, Calgary Flames (1): 2434 -> 2381, San Jose Sharks (3): 2412 -> 2465 ]
[2019-10-13, Pittsburgh Penguins (7): 2547 -> 2595, Winnipeg Jets (2): 2534 -> 2486 ]
[2019-10-14, Anaheim Ducks (2): 2593 -> 2545, Boston Bruins (4): 2605 -> 2653 ]
[2019-10-14, Dallas Stars (0): 2360 -> 2337, Buffalo Sabres (4): 2573 -> 2596 ]
[2019-10-14, Edmonton Oilers (1): 2671 -> 2587, Chicago Blackhawks (3): 2380 -> 2464 ]
[2019-10-14, Florida Panthers (6): 2432 -> 2474, New Jersey Devils (4): 2375 -> 2333 ]
[2019-10-14, St. Louis Blues (2): 2532 -> 2498, New York Islanders (3): 2468 -> 2502 , OTSO]
[2019-10-14, Minnesota Wild (2): 2343 -> 2409, Ottawa Senators (0): 2455 -> 2389 ]
[2019-10-14, Colorado Avalanche (6): 2646 -> 2675, Washington Capitals (3): 2491 -> 2462 ]
 
Latest Changes

[2019-10-15, Philadelphia Flyers (1): 2541 -> 2469, Calgary Flames (3): 2381 -> 2453 ]
[2019-10-15, Carolina Hurricanes (2): 2565 -> 2599, Los Angeles Kings (0): 2450 -> 2416 ]
[2019-10-15, Tampa Bay Lightning (3): 2456 -> 2515, Montreal Canadiens (1): 2521 -> 2462 ]
[2019-10-15, Minnesota Wild (2): 2409 -> 2374, Toronto Maple Leafs (4): 2513 -> 2548 ]
[2019-10-15, Detroit Red Wings (1): 2510 -> 2459, Vancouver Canucks (5): 2504 -> 2555 ]
[2019-10-15, Nashville Predators (5): 2503 -> 2562, Vegas Golden Knights (2): 2568 -> 2509 ]
[2019-10-15, Arizona Coyotes (4): 2478 -> 2529, Winnipeg Jets (2): 2486 -> 2435 ]
 
Latest Changes

[2019-10-16, Buffalo Sabres (2): 2596 -> 2539, Anaheim Ducks (5): 2545 -> 2602 ]
[2019-10-16, Dallas Stars (2): 2337 -> 2309, Columbus Blue Jackets (3): 2498 -> 2526 ]
[2019-10-16, Philadelphia Flyers (3): 2469 -> 2435, Edmonton Oilers (6): 2587 -> 2621 ]
[2019-10-16, Colorado Avalanche (2): 2675 -> 2639, Pittsburgh Penguins (3): 2595 -> 2631 , OTSO]
[2019-10-16, Carolina Hurricanes (2): 2599 -> 2531, San Jose Sharks (5): 2465 -> 2533 ]
[2019-10-16, Toronto Maple Leafs (3): 2548 -> 2486, Washington Capitals (4): 2462 -> 2524 ]
 
Latest Changes

[2019-10-17, Tampa Bay Lightning (4): 2515 -> 2559, Boston Bruins (3): 2653 -> 2609 , OTSO]
[2019-10-17, Detroit Red Wings (1): 2459 -> 2408, Calgary Flames (5): 2453 -> 2504 ]
[2019-10-17, Buffalo Sabres (3): 2539 -> 2572, Los Angeles Kings (0): 2416 -> 2383 ]
[2019-10-17, Minnesota Wild (0): 2374 -> 2336, Montreal Canadiens (4): 2462 -> 2500 ]
[2019-10-17, New York Rangers (2): 2542 -> 2465, New Jersey Devils (5): 2333 -> 2410 ]
[2019-10-17, Vancouver Canucks (4): 2555 -> 2572, St. Louis Blues (3): 2498 -> 2481 , OTSO]
[2019-10-17, Ottawa Senators (2): 2389 -> 2381, Vegas Golden Knights (3): 2509 -> 2517 , OTSO]
[2019-10-17, New York Islanders (3): 2502 -> 2542, Winnipeg Jets (1): 2435 -> 2395 ]
[2019-10-18, Carolina Hurricanes (2): 2531 -> 2491, Anaheim Ducks (4): 2602 -> 2642 ]
[2019-10-18, Columbus Blue Jackets (2): 2526 -> 2492, Chicago Blackhawks (3): 2464 -> 2498 , OTSO]
[2019-10-18, Detroit Red Wings (1): 2408 -> 2385, Edmonton Oilers (2): 2621 -> 2644 ]
[2019-10-18, Colorado Avalanche (5): 2639 -> 2642, Florida Panthers (4): 2474 -> 2471 , OTSO]
[2019-10-18, Dallas Stars (2): 2309 -> 2295, Pittsburgh Penguins (4): 2631 -> 2645 ]
[2019-10-18, New York Rangers (2): 2465 -> 2423, Washington Capitals (5): 2524 -> 2566 ]
[2019-10-19, Ottawa Senators (2): 2381 -> 2357, Arizona Coyotes (5): 2584 -> 2608 ]
[2019-10-19, New York Islanders (3): 2542 -> 2560, Columbus Blue Jackets (2): 2492 -> 2474 , OTSO]
[2019-10-19, Calgary Flames (1): 2504 -> 2437, Los Angeles Kings (4): 2383 -> 2450 ]
[2019-10-19, Vancouver Canucks (0): 2572 -> 2500, New Jersey Devils (1): 2410 -> 2482 ]
[2019-10-19, Florida Panthers (3): 2471 -> 2501, Nashville Predators (2): 2507 -> 2477 , OTSO]
[2019-10-19, Dallas Stars (4): 2295 -> 2364, Philadelphia Flyers (1): 2435 -> 2366 ]
[2019-10-19, Vegas Golden Knights (3): 2517 -> 2585, Pittsburgh Penguins (0): 2645 -> 2577 ]
[2019-10-19, Buffalo Sabres (4): 2572 -> 2616, San Jose Sharks (3): 2533 -> 2489 ]
[2019-10-19, Montreal Canadiens (5): 2500 -> 2547, St. Louis Blues (2): 2481 -> 2434 ]
[2019-10-19, Colorado Avalanche (6): 2642 -> 2680, Tampa Bay Lightning (2): 2559 -> 2521 ]
[2019-10-19, Boston Bruins (3): 2609 -> 2567, Toronto Maple Leafs (4): 2486 -> 2528 , OTSO]
[2019-10-20, Calgary Flames (2): 2437 -> 2513, Anaheim Ducks (1): 2642 -> 2566 ]
[2019-10-20, Washington Capitals (5): 2566 -> 2606, Chicago Blackhawks (3): 2498 -> 2458 ]
[2019-10-20, Montreal Canadiens (3): 2547 -> 2470, Minnesota Wild (4): 2336 -> 2413 ]
[2019-10-20, Vancouver Canucks (3): 2500 -> 2539, New York Rangers (2): 2423 -> 2384 ]
[2019-10-20, Edmonton Oilers (0): 2644 -> 2588, Winnipeg Jets (1): 2395 -> 2451 , OTSO]
[2019-10-21, Ottawa Senators (1): 2357 -> 2308, Dallas Stars (2): 2364 -> 2413 ]
[2019-10-21, Vegas Golden Knights (2): 2585 -> 2507, Philadelphia Flyers (6): 2366 -> 2444 ]
[2019-10-21, Colorado Avalanche (1): 2680 -> 2600, St. Louis Blues (3): 2434 -> 2514 ]
[2019-10-21, Columbus Blue Jackets (4): 2474 -> 2507, Toronto Maple Leafs (3): 2528 -> 2495 , OTSO]
 
Latest changes

[2019-10-22, Toronto Maple Leafs (2): 2495 -> 2455, Boston Bruins (4): 2567 -> 2607 ]
[2019-10-22, San Jose Sharks (3): 2489 -> 2482, Buffalo Sabres (4): 2616 -> 2623 , OTSO]
[2019-10-22, Washington Capitals (5): 2606 -> 2643, Calgary Flames (3): 2513 -> 2476 ]
[2019-10-22, Vegas Golden Knights (2): 2507 -> 2525, Chicago Blackhawks (1): 2458 -> 2440 , OTSO]
[2019-10-22, Vancouver Canucks (5): 2539 -> 2568, Detroit Red Wings (2): 2385 -> 2356 ]
[2019-10-22, Pittsburgh Penguins (2): 2577 -> 2516, Florida Panthers (4): 2501 -> 2562 ]
[2019-10-22, Edmonton Oilers (0): 2588 -> 2515, Minnesota Wild (3): 2413 -> 2486 ]
[2019-10-22, Anaheim Ducks (1): 2566 -> 2503, Nashville Predators (6): 2477 -> 2540 ]
[2019-10-22, Arizona Coyotes (3): 2608 -> 2605, New York Rangers (2): 2384 -> 2387 , OTSO]
[2019-10-22, Los Angeles Kings (3): 2450 -> 2500, Winnipeg Jets (2): 2451 -> 2401 ]
 
Trackgabe said:
Ottawa will be last now, I imagine.
Click to expand...
almost there.

Latest changes

[2019-10-23, Detroit Red Wings (2): 2356 -> 2299, Ottawa Senators (5): 2308 -> 2365 ]
[2019-10-23, Pittsburgh Penguins (2): 2516 -> 2467, Tampa Bay Lightning (3): 2521 -> 2570 ]
[2019-10-24, Carolina Hurricanes (3): 2491 -> 2468, Columbus Blue Jackets (4): 2507 -> 2530 , OTSO]
[2019-10-24, Florida Panthers (5): 2562 -> 2525, Calgary Flames (6): 2476 -> 2513 , OTSO]
[2019-10-24, Philadelphia Flyers (4): 2444 -> 2493, Chicago Blackhawks (1): 2440 -> 2391 ]
[2019-10-24, Anaheim Ducks (1): 2503 -> 2440, Dallas Stars (2): 2413 -> 2476 ]
[2019-10-24, Washington Capitals (3): 2643 -> 2600, Edmonton Oilers (4): 2515 -> 2558 , OTSO]
[2019-10-24, San Jose Sharks (4): 2482 -> 2530, Montreal Canadiens (2): 2470 -> 2422 ]
[2019-10-24, Minnesota Wild (0): 2486 -> 2444, Nashville Predators (4): 2540 -> 2582 ]
[2019-10-24, Arizona Coyotes (2): 2605 -> 2549, New York Islanders (4): 2560 -> 2616 ]
[2019-10-24, Buffalo Sabres (2): 2623 -> 2543, New York Rangers (6): 2387 -> 2467 ]
[2019-10-24, Los Angeles Kings (2): 2500 -> 2452, St. Louis Blues (5): 2514 -> 2562 ]
[2019-10-25, Buffalo Sabres (2): 2543 -> 2563, Detroit Red Wings (0): 2299 -> 2279 ]
[2019-10-25, Arizona Coyotes (5): 2549 -> 2589, New Jersey Devils (3): 2482 -> 2442 ]
[2019-10-25, New York Islanders (4): 2616 -> 2635, Ottawa Senators (2): 2365 -> 2346 ]
[2019-10-25, San Jose Sharks (1): 2530 -> 2469, Toronto Maple Leafs (4): 2455 -> 2516 ]
[2019-10-25, Washington Capitals (6): 2600 -> 2620, Vancouver Canucks (5): 2568 -> 2548 , OTSO]
[2019-10-25, Colorado Avalanche (6): 2600 -> 2639, Vegas Golden Knights (1): 2525 -> 2486 ]
 
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