NFC Playoff Picture 2024

[misterchainsaw]

I'm a little disappointed the Rams have already had their bye week - eliminating the chance for a 4 way tie at 4-4 atop the NFC West....

AFTER WEEK 8:
1. Detroit - 6-1
2. Washington - 6-2
3. Atlanta - 5-3
4. Arizona - 4-4 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over SF and SEA)
5. Green Bay - 6-2
6. Minnesota - 5-2
7. Philadelphia - 5-2
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8. Chicago - 4-3
9. Tampa Bay - 4-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over SF)
10. San Francisco - 4-4 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over SEA)
11. Seattle - 4-4
12. LA Rams - 3-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DAL)
13. Dallas - 3-4
14. New Orleans - 2-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over NYG)
15. NY Giants - 2-6
16. Carolina - 1-7


CONTROL OF DESTINY: Note: Only the highest level (among 1st round bye, division title, and making the playoffs) a team controls their own destiny for will be listed here - if a team controls their own destiny for the first round bye, they also control their own destiny to make the playoffs and win their division). A team controls their own destiny if they obtain a certain spot 100% of the time if they win every game for the rest of the year.

- Detroit controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Washington controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC North
- Philadelphia controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Chicago controls their own destiny for the NFC North
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Seattle controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for the NFC West
- Dallas controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Tampa Bay controls their own destiny for a wild card birth



POTENTIAL CHANGES OF DESTINY IN WEEK 9:
- Detroit will lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss and a WSH or PHI win.
- Washington will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win and a DET loss
- Green Bay will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, WSH loss, and PHI loss
- Minnesota will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, a DET loss, a PHI loss, and a WSH loss
- Philadelphia will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, a DET loss, a MIN loss, and a WSH loss
- Green Bay will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a loss
- Chicago will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a loss and a DET win.
- The LA Rams will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss.
- Dallas will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss and either a WSH or PHI win.
- Minnesota will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and a DET loss
- Tampa Bay will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card birth with a loss
- Dallas will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card birth with a loss, CHI win, and either a WSH or PHI loss.

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[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 9:
1. Detroit - 7-1
2. Washington - 7-2
3. Atlanta - 6-3
4. Arizona - 5-4
5. Minnesota - 6-2 (Holds strength of victory over PHI)
6. Philadelphia - 6-2
7. Green Bay - 6-3
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8. Chicago - 4-4 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over LAR)
9. LA Rams - 4-4 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over SF)
10. San Francisco - 4-4
11. Tampa Bay - 4-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over SEA)
12. Seattle - 4-5
13. Dallas - 3-5
14. Carolina - 2-7 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over NO, holds conference record tiebreak over NYG)
15. New Orleans 2-7 - (Holds conference record tiebreaker over NYG)
16. NY Giants 2-7

CONTROL OF DESTINY:

- Detroit controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Washington controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Philadelphia controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Seattle controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for the NFC West
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Chicago controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Dallas controls their own destiny for a wild card birth

POSSIBLE CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 10
- Detroit can lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss and a WSH win.
- The LA Rams will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss and ARI win.
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss and ARI win
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and DET loss.
- Chicago can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and a DET loss.
- Chicago can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, TB win, MIN win, and either an ATL or WSH win.
- The LA Rams can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and either a WSH or PHI win.
- San Francisco can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and ARI win
- Dallas can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss.
- Tampa Bay can gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, and 3 losses out of PHI/WSH/ATL/MIN

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Thanks for providing this every season.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

It's that time again - to look at a way too early playoff picture

POSSIBLE CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 10
- Chicago can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and a DET loss.
- Chicago can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, TB win, MIN win, and either an ATL or WSH win.

ya maybe

 

[misterchainsaw]

ya maybe

I try not to editorialize too much

 

[misterchainsaw]

The wild card race looks a little bit like a dud right now, but at least we have some divisional races in the NFC

WEEK 10:
1. Detroit - 8-1
2. Philadelphia - 7-2
3. Atlanta - 6-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over ARI)
4. Arizona - 6-4
5. Minnesota - 7-2
6. Washington - 7-3
7. Green Bay - 6-3
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8. San Francisco - 5-4
9. Chicago - 4-5 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over LAR)
10. LA Rams - 4-5 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over SEA)
11. Seattle - 4-5
12. Tampa Bay - 4-6
13. Dallas - 3-6
14. Carolina - 3-7 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over NO)
15. New Orleans - 3-7
16. NY Giants - 2-8

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Detroit controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Philadelphia controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Washington controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Seattle controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Chicago controls their own destiny for a wild card birth

POSSIBLE CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY 11:
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny for the bye with a win, DET loss, and PHI loss
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and DET loss.
- The LA Rams can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a win and an ARI loss
- Washington will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC East with a loss
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss
- Seattle will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss and a GB win
- Chicago will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss.
- Seattle will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 11:
- The NY Giants will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a MIN win and DET win.

 

[The Note]

It’s interesting contrasting the two conferences. The AFC has essentially no interesting divisional races (sans PIT/BAL) and the WC is the only question and the NFC where the divisions are tight but the WC race isn’t really compelling at all.

 

[adsfan]

Packers (7-3) block a last second FG to win 20-19 over the Bears (4-6)!

GB has to get out of the #7 spot.
Chicago's season is over, unless they win out.

 

[SJSharksfan39]

This was a catastrophic loss for the 49ers. Their season might be done in the next two weeks.

 

[StreetHawk]

NFC. Likely sees phi and Wash in the east. South, Atl, though they don’t seem like that good a team. North has Det with the inside track on the bye, plus Min and GB. West likely only see the division winner.

TB lost both games to Atl thus really can’t win the south. Whether they can get back into the WC race we shall see.

 

[Unholy Diver]

NFC. Likely sees phi and Wash in the east. South, Atl, though they don’t seem like that good a team. North has Det with the inside track on the bye, plus Min and GB. West likely only see the division winner.

TB lost both games to Atl thus really can’t win the south. Whether they can get back into the WC race we shall see.

The Falcons schedule the rest of the way is a fair bit tougher, I think they lose at least 3 more, and the Bucs should be favored in all but 1 remaining game, I think the south goes to the wire

 

[StreetHawk]

The Falcons schedule the rest of the way is a fair bit tougher, I think they lose at least 3 more, and the Bucs should be favored in all but 1 remaining game, I think the south goes to the wire

1/3 vs LAC/MIn/Was is probably doable. But, would need to sweep the 3 bad teams.

Can't recall the last time a team lost both H2H vs the 2nd place team in division and still won their division.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Washington dropping their 4th game puts some hope that there could be a wild card race, but a lot of work to do for multiple NFC West teams to even get to that point.

WEEK 11: (a - eliminated from #1 seed contention)
1. Detroit - 9-1
2. Philadelphia - 8-2
3. Arizona - 6-4
4. Atlanta - 6-5
5. Minnesota - 8-2
6. Green Bay - 7-3
7. Washington - 7-4
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8. LA Rams - 5-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. SF and SEA)
9. Seattle - 5-5 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker vs SF)
10. San Francisco - 5-5
11. Tampa Bay - 4-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CHI)
12. Chicago - 4-6
13. New Orleans - 4-7
14. Carolina - 3-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DAL)
15. Dallas - 3-7
16. a - NY Giants - 2-8

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Detroit controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Philadelphia controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Seattle controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Washington controls their own destiny for a wild card birth

POSSIBLE CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY 12:
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a win, PHI loss, and DET loss
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and a DET loss
- The LA Rams can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a win and an ARI loss
- Seattle can lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West AND the wild card with a loss.
- San Francisco can gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, MIN loss, and DET loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 12:
- Dallas will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss
- Carolina will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and any of a GB/DET/MIN win.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Washington continues to flounder - they have a relatively easy schedule on the way in, but home to Dallas was supposed to be that and look what happened there. 10 wins should get it down. In a weird quirk, the Rams gained control of their own destiny in the NFC West despite losing, because ARI's loss was inside the division while LA's was not.

WEEK 12: (a - eliminated from #1 seed contention)
1. Detroit - 10-1
2. Philadelphia - 9-2
3. Atlanta - 6-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over SEA)
4. Seattle - 6-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over ARI)
5. Minnesota - 9-2
6. Green Bay - 8-3
7. Washington - 7-5
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8. Arizona - 6-5
9. Tampa Bay - 5-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LAR)
10. LA Rams - 5-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. SF)
11. San Francisco - 5-6
12. New Orleans - 4-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CHI and DAL)
13. Chicago - 4-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DAL)
14. Dallas - 4-7
15. a - Carolina - 3-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DAL)
16. a - NY Giants - 2-9

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Detroit controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Philadelphia controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Seattle controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for the NFC West
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for a wild card birth
- Washington controls their own destiny for a wild card birth

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 13:
- Detroit will lose control of their own destiny for home field with a loss and a PHI win.
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, PHI loss, and DET loss
- The LA Rams will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West and the wild card with a loss and either a ARI or SEA win.
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and a DET loss.
- Tampa Bay will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, SF loss, and either an ATL or WSH loss.

CLINCHING SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 13:
- Detroit will clinch a wild card spot with a win, ARI loss, SF loss, SEA loss, and either (1)a TB loss, or (2)a WSH and ATL loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 13:
- The NY Giants will be eliminated from playoff contention with (1)a loss or (2)a WSH and GB win.
- Dallas will be eliminated from NFC East contention with a loss and a PHI win.
- Chicago will be eliminated from NFC North contention with a loss, MIN win, or GB win
- Dallas will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, DET win, MIN win, or GB win.
- New Orleans will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, DET win, MIN win, or GB win
- San Francisco will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and any of a DET, MIN, or GB win.
- The LA Rams will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss OR a MIN and DET win
- Tampa Bay will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and any of a DET, MIN, or GB win.