News & Notes XLIV: Revenge of the Seth

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I heard a former coach talking about the Canes and why teams handle them better in the playoffs vs the regular season. He said in the regular season teams are often facing us as their 2nd or 3rd game of the week and it's not always worth the extra effort to figure the Canes system out or outplay us, apply the needed response, etc. The needed energy simply isn't always there. He made it sound like a pragmatic choice. But, in the playoffs when they have the extra time to study, he said they practice our system and role play, etc. which ultimately makes our special teams less effective.

On the surface, that might make sense, along with other teams' players are going to give more effort in the playoffs..BUT.....

The problem isn't the 5v5 "system" in the playoffs. It's special teams and in a couple of the post seasons, goaltending (sometimes due to injury).

For the past 3 seasons:
PP: 23% regular season, 16% Playoffs
PK: 86% regular season, 77% Playoffs

5v5:
GF%: 52.4% regular season, 53.1% Playoffs
xGF: 54.6% regular season, 53.6% playoffs

We've been holding our own 5v5 from regular season to the playoffs, but have been getting killed on special teams, which has nothing to do with the effort for the system 5v5.

I do agree that other teams can study the PP and PK more and have been able to take advantage of it though.

 

[hblueridgegal]

On the surface, that might make sense, along with other teams' players are going to give more effort in the playoffs..BUT....

We've been holding our own 5v5 from regular season to the playoffs, but have been getting killed on special teams, which has nothing to do with the effort for the system 5v5.

I do agree that other teams can study the PP and PK more and have been able to take advantage of it though.

He didn't dive into the data specifics. I don't think he was disparaging the Canes per say or really addressing any of the analytical darling persona the team has other than to suggest that the regular season W/L record does not always reflect the whole story. Kinda like the history of the President's trophy winners. He was specifically touching on how the Canes sometimes catch teams off guard in the grind of the regular season with the uniqueness in their style of play and level of effort intensity but how that advantage can dissipate come playoff time. Pointing out that when opponents have prep time and rest as in the playoffs when stakes are high, they've been able to identify weaknesses and patterns which have made the Canes less of a threat in some areas.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He didn't dive into the data specifics. I don't think he was disparaging the Canes per say or really addressing any of the analytical darling persona the team has other than to suggest that the regular season W/L record does not always reflect the whole story. Kinda like the history of the President's trophy winners. He was specifically touching on how the Canes sometimes catch teams off guard in the grind of the regular season with the uniqueness in their style of play and level of effort intensity but how that advantage can dissipate come playoff time. Pointing out that when opponents have prep time and rest as in the playoffs when stakes are high, they've been able to identify weaknesses and patterns which have made the Canes less of a threat in some areas.

I understand what you are saying, and I agree that on the surface, that would make sense, but what I'm saying is that the actual data (not fancy analytics) don't back that notion up that it has to do with the "uniqueness" of their style of play which is a 5v5 statement.

it's been special teams. Now if he's saying they have more time to figure out their special teams, then sure, the data backs that up.

 

[chaz4hockey]

^^^^^^
I’d add (to the excuse box???), we also have had untimely injuries (Svetch, Freddie) whereby the teams we have lost to (Rangers, bolts, cats) have been healthy. Sprinkle in some untimely goaltending fails (Ned versus bolts bad angle late 3rd period goal), Freddie (game 6 LY) and you get the failures.

But, as you stated special teams have been killers (of course Bolts and Rangers had superb PP with dangerous players).
We finally found the Pk success against the rags that lead to the two wins but it was in a sense too late in the series.

 

[hblueridgegal]

 

[CandyCanes]

Ghost Walker lookin solid

 

[tarheelhockey]

Ghost Walker lookin solid

While I like that we’ve got a pairing ranked high, that list is gibberish.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

While I like that we’ve got a pairing ranked high, that list is gibberish.

Yeah, no kidding. The Toronto 'pair' has three guys on it.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Jeff Marek on Rod Brind’Amour: Do Former NHL Players Get Special Treatment as Coaches?
Coaching vs composition comparisons.



re: the Canes and the playoffs..."their problem is goaltenders with a hospital bracelet"

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ghost Walker lookin solid

What these lists fail to account for is usage and quality of competition. Walker and Ghost are WAY more sheltered than the Canes other 2 pair.

 

[CandyCanes]

What these lists fail to account for is usage and quality of competition. Walker and Ghost are WAY more sheltered than the Canes other 2 pair.

Correct. But also shows they’re excelling at their job, even tho they’re playing sheltered minutes.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Correct. But also shows they’re excelling at their job, even tho they’re playing sheltered minutes.

Very true. My point is that context is important when Moneypuck lists pairings for multiple teams like this.

For instance, McCabe and Tanev face the toughest competition on their team and get the least ozone starts. Same for Gavrikov-Anderson and Edvinsson-Seider. Seigenthalter-Kovacevic face tough competition (not the toughest but close) and get the least ozone starts on their team. Hughes-Hronek get a lot of ozone starts, but aren't sheltered in terms of competition they face.

Schmidt-Balinskis and Ghost-Walker are very sheltered.

So without context, it's comparing apples and oranges. In some cases, you have defensemen playing the hardest minutes and excelling at it vs. a couple of cases where defensemen are very sheltered and excelling at it.

We should expect two seasoned vets that are getting paid close to $7M (total) as a 3rd pair to excel against weak competition. That's not to say that they won't do well against tougher competition, but they haven't been used that way yet.