News & Notes XLII: Consolidation Season

[bleedgreen]

While Kotkaniemi is slumping again and has been streaky, keep in mind:

Trocheck's last season in Carolina was 51 points in 82 games and 10 points in 14 playoff games.

Kotkaniemi's 2023 calendar year (including a dreadful December) was 47 points in 83 games and 7 points in 15 playoff games.

Kotkaniemi put up a 2023 that was close to Trocheck's last season in Carolina. Trocheck played better with better wings in New York, yes. But Trocheck's 21-22 didn't match his 20-21 even if he was healthy for all of 21-22.

Well focusing on Tro’s lesser year for the sake of a KK comparison is weak sauce to me. The previous year he led us in scoring for awhile and pushed Aho all year. Also you’re avoiding the difference in his usage between the two years. The first full year he played the down low bumper with quick flashes to the top of the crease - which he very much excelled at. He was a great bumper passer, he could deflect pucks, bury rebounds and he could finish from sharp angles. There’s no comparison for KK in this setting. Most importantly maybe he had chemistry with Dougie who would find him down low for these plays. The next year we had Tony who that year sprayed passes quickly but mostly just went side to side on top of the umbrella, he didn’t do that perfectly timed pass through sticks down low at all. Not that it mattered because they changed the pp to deal with the new personnel moved Tro to the high slot. No one used him there. TT would always prefer to go all the way across to Aho and vice versa. He received almost no love, and was too high to get to rebounds. The pp numbers dropped despite over 30 more games being played.

Using Tro’s “bad” year and trying to compare it to KK’s best? Woof. Not to mention the use of the “calendar year”. Is that a stat now? Doesn’t feel like one. Stats are generally a seasonal thing. There’s no same-sies here. There’s no real good comparison. It’s a significant drop. As far as cap savings from losing Tro, he made 4.7 on his last contract so we’re paying KK 4.8 to be a lesser player when Tro only makes 5.6 now.

It was a chance and when playing money puck you can make a strong argument it was worth the shot to pay the younger guy you think has some game coming. I get that. I do not remotely get that we’re a better team because of this switch. It’s a clear drop off for me. Of course there’s still time but we still could use a righty center either way. Which is why I thought it was worth it with Tro. Righty who fit the group and only a one million raise, when there was no good replacement out there then just like there isn’t now. The money pucking only really works if you effectively replace the guys you let go, and this one was a tall order from the get go to get there. Isn’t there yet and he can’t make himself a righty.

 

[bleedgreen]

90% sure Rod complained about officiating, asked for a review of the game and the league caught a few missed calls against Carolina.

I watched the other teams feed and Rod was a focal point of much of the broadcast. They showed him losing his shit all game. They didn’t understand why he was half the time, despite one of them being right there between the benches listening to it. I don’t think the Canes broadcast shows you guys how often Rod is screaming at them. It’s bad. To me it’s always been the number one reason we get so many ticky tack calls against that don’t seem to even out enough. Also why I struggle when as a group we go after certain players who get called all the time when many of them are tough nit picky calls - they’re getting the short end of the ref/Rod stick.

 

[Chrispy]

Trocheck's second full year was the year they most recently saw and had to make the decision on Trocheck based on. I doubt Trocheck would have signed a long term deal for $5.6M coming off of 20-21.

When you have a full seasons worth of games in a row to look at, it's reasonable to look at a years worth of games over multiple seasons. It's not a smaller sample size, like say, Trocheck's 47 game 20-21 that wasn't replicated in 21-22.

I completely agree the righty aspect, the PP prowess that Kotkaniemi does not have, and Trocheck's very good to great FO ability are all sorely missed. Especially now that Stepan has retired and they had to move to Jarvis as the top RH FO option.

 

[bleedgreen]

Trocheck's second full year was the year they most recently saw and had to make the decision on Trocheck based on. I doubt Trocheck would have signed a long term deal for $5.6M coming off of 20-21.

When you have a full seasons worth of games in a row to look at, it's reasonable to look at a years worth of games over multiple seasons. It's not a smaller sample size, like say, Trocheck's 47 game 20-21 that wasn't replicated in 21-22.

I completely agree the righty aspect, the PP prowess that Kotkaniemi does not have, and Trocheck's very good to great FO ability are all sorely missed. Especially now that Stepan has retired and they had to move to Jarvis as the top RH FO option.

Stepan got in the way of Drury, which sucked a bit and was the consequence of all this. Im not really fighting with thought “we don’t want to pay him that for that long”. To me the issue was the lack of a replacement and then spending the savings on a lefty question mark…and this conversation started with the thought that we’re better without Tro. I can’t get there. I’m relatively fine with “we didn’t want that contract”.

Though obviously I would’ve paid it. He’s clearly the better player now still, we had hopes for Kk being more than he’s been. I also get that. I had hopes too.

 

[Chrispy]

And my point was as recently as Thanksgiving you could argue Kotkaniemi was on his way to being a reasonable replacement for what Trocheck was in his last year.

I loved Trocheck. I loved his personality, the post-game hugs, the special teams play, his ability as a pest. But I think we let that cloud our memory of what was a disappointing walk year after 20-21 that led to a softer UFA market than even he probably expected.

And even after 21-22, I doubt he signs a 5.6M contract with Carolina before July 1.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Goals/60

Total Assists/60

First Assists/60

Second Assists/60

Total Points/60

IPP

Shots/60

S%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iFF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Rebounds Created/60

Minor/60

Pens Drawn/60

Giveaways/60

Takeaways/60

Hits/60

1​

0.87​

1.15​

0.77​

0.38​

2.02​

84​

8.56​

10.11​

0.89​

12.41​

11.06​

8.37​

3.66​

1.15​

0.87​

1.15​

2.31​

1.44​

9.72​

2​

0.67​

1.21​

0.54​

0.67​

1.87​

64.58​

7.01​

9.48​

0.83​

13.06​

10.88​

8.83​

4.17​

0.97​

1.45​

1.45​

1.63​

2​

10.64​

3​

1.02​

1.1​

0.42​

0.68​

2.12​

75.76​

6.2​

16.44​

0.7​

11.12​

8.49​

6.62​

3.99​

0.76​

0.76​

1.1​

1.7​

2.12​

6.28​

4​

0.71​

1​

0.29​

0.71​

1.7​

67.44​

5.76​

12.24​

0.71​

10.35​

8.05​

6.82​

3.64​

1.18​

1.35​

0.82​

2.29​

1.65​

6​

Pop quiz. Which 2 lines are Tro check's first 2 full seasons here in 5v5 play and which two are KK's?

Answer 1 and 2 are Tro's for 20/21 and 21/22 respectively

Now lets look at KK's current line with some serious luck issues this season. his assists and goals numbers would be near Tro's 20/21 numbers

Goals/60

Total Assists/60

First Assists/60

Second Assists/60

Total Points/60

IPP

Shots/60

S%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iFF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Rebounds Created/60

Minor/60

Pens Drawn/60

Giveaways/60

Takeaways/60

Hits/60

0.69​

0.69​

0.43​

0.26​

1.37​

64​

7.9​

8.7​

1.02​

15.11​

11.93​

9.02​

4.64​

1.72​

1.29​

1.03​

2.23​

1.8​

3.26​

 

[bleedgreen]

Goals/60

Total Assists/60

First Assists/60

Second Assists/60

Total Points/60

IPP

Shots/60

S%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iFF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Rebounds Created/60

Minor/60

Pens Drawn/60

Giveaways/60

Takeaways/60

Hits/60

1​

0.87​

1.15​

0.77​

0.38​

2.02​

84​

8.56​

10.11​

0.89​

12.41​

11.06​

8.37​

3.66​

1.15​

0.87​

1.15​

2.31​

1.44​

9.72​

2​

0.67​

1.21​

0.54​

0.67​

1.87​

64.58​

7.01​

9.48​

0.83​

13.06​

10.88​

8.83​

4.17​

0.97​

1.45​

1.45​

1.63​

2​

10.64​

3​

1.02​

1.1​

0.42​

0.68​

2.12​

75.76​

6.2​

16.44​

0.7​

11.12​

8.49​

6.62​

3.99​

0.76​

0.76​

1.1​

1.7​

2.12​

6.28​

4​

0.71​

1​

0.29​

0.71​

1.7​

67.44​

5.76​

12.24​

0.71​

10.35​

8.05​

6.82​

3.64​

1.18​

1.35​

0.82​

2.29​

1.65​

6​

Pop quiz. Which 2 lines are Tro check's first 2 full seasons here in 5v5 play and which two are KK's?

Answer 1 and 2 are Tro's for 20/21 and 21/22 respectively

Now lets look at KK's current line with some serious luck issues this season. his assists and goals numbers would be near Tro's 20/21 numbers

Goals/60

Total Assists/60

First Assists/60

Second Assists/60

Total Points/60

IPP

Shots/60

S%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iFF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Rebounds Created/60

Minor/60

Pens Drawn/60

Giveaways/60

Takeaways/60

Hits/60

0.69​

0.69​

0.43​

0.26​

1.37​

64​

7.9​

8.7​

1.02​

15.11​

11.93​

9.02​

4.64​

1.72​

1.29​

1.03​

2.23​

1.8​

3.26​

Why are we so obsessed in this debate about comparing the two from Tro’s lesser year? Never acknowledging the significant usage difference, just pretending it didn’t happen. Trocheck is pretty clearly the player from the better year.

Do you think these stats prove that KK is actually just as good a player?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Why are we so obsessed in this debate about comparing the two from Tro’s lesser year? Never acknowledging the significant usage difference, just pretending it didn’t happen. Trocheck is pretty clearly the player from the better year.

Do you think these stats prove that KK is actually just as a good player?

They show that the difference isn’t very significant especially considering both were the 3rd or 4th C in 5v5 time.

And this isn’t comparing Tro’s worse year. It’s looking at both seasons.

2 seasons vs 2 seasons. The production differences isn’t huge.

 

[bleedgreen]

Trocheck…..94 pts in 135 games as a Cane
Koko………….92 pts in 206 games as a Cane

There is no good comparison between these two players no matter how you try to change the angle or cherry pick a favorable stat. One is not like the other.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I guess if we ignore overall ice time and just look at raw points. But at least only one of us can claim the other is cherry picking, amirite

 

[bleedgreen]

I guess if we ignore overall ice time and just look at raw points. But at least only one of us can claim the other is cherry picking, amirite

Did Kk not get his chance for more usage and ice time?!?

He couldn’t keep up.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Did Kk not get his chance for more usage and ice time?!?

Yep and we went to the Ecf. Tro was at home.

Our 3rd 5v5 center isn’t that overly important. Tro or kk. It doesn’t really matter

 

[bleedgreen]

Yep and we went to the Ecf. Tro was at home.

Our 3rd 5v5 center isn’t that overly important. Tro or kk. It doesn’t really matter

And we haven’t won a single game in two ecf’s. I think we’re getting a little carried away here with the playoff talk. KK’s minutes and usage reflect the fact he isn’t nearly the same offensive player so less pp time, and was a passenger when he was used higher up. His 5v5 stats are undoubtedly helped from the first half of last season when Svech and Necas blew it up. Kk usually wasn’t even in offensive zone yet when those two scored and he got an assist.

Your use of stats makes stats cringe. Nobody would confuse these two, and no one would trade Tro for KK. Just stick to the “Tro is older and we don’t like giving guys his age contracts, and we found a younger center at a good price” argument because it’s the only one that ever held water. The position does matter which is proven by the fact we’re still looking for one despite team success.

We’re going to have to settle for another scoring winger probably. Better than nothing.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Yep and we went to the Ecf. Tro was at home.

Our 3rd 5v5 center isn’t that overly important. Tro or kk. It doesn’t really matter

Trochek also played key roles on special teams. KK doesn’t. Having a center that doesn’t contribute at all on either the PP or PK is a ginormous hole in the lineup. Estes silly when he can’t beat out Jack Drury (who has no business in an NHL power play) for a PP role.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

And we haven’t won a single game in two ecf’s. I think we’re getting a little carried away here with the playoff talk. KK’s minutes and usage reflect the fact he isn’t nearly the same offensive player so less pp time, and was a passenger when he was used higher up. His 5v5 stats are undoubtedly helped from the first half of last season when Svech and Necas blew it up. Kk usually wasn’t even in offensive zone yet when those two scored and he got an assist.

Your use of stats makes stats cringe. Nobody would confuse these two, and no one would trade Tro for KK. Just stick to the “Tro is older and we don’t like giving guys his age contracts, and we found a younger center at a good price” argument because it’s the only one that ever held water. The position does matter which is proven by the fact we’re still looking for one despite team success.

We’re going to have to settle for another scoring winger probably. Better than nothing.

Cringe all you want but the per 60 rate is the only way to look at them with equal playing time. With such, they aren’t that far off. That is without considering KK’s numbers should be higher.

“no one trading KK for tro” is irrelevant. As long as kk can at least fil the void, which it would seem he is, then it is important how anyone feels about it. Again, who our 3rd or 4th 5v5 ice time center hasn’t affected our success. Which is the point.

Trochek also played key roles on special teams. KK doesn’t. Having a center that doesn’t contribute at all on either the PP or PK is a ginormous hole in the lineup. Estes silly when he can’t beat out Jack Drury (who has no business in an NHL power play) for a PP role.

Drury is playing over kk because of his chemistry with Necas. Kk is driving more offense than drury even with playing with Noesen /Fast/Turbo.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Cringe all you want but the per 60 rate is the only way to look at them with equal playing time. With such, they aren’t that far off. That is without considering KK’s numbers should be higher.

“no one trading KK for tro” is irrelevant. As long as kk can at least fil the void, which it would seem he is, then it is important how anyone feels about it. Again, who our 3rd or 4th 5v5 ice time center hasn’t affected our success. Which is the point.


Drury is playing over kk because of his chemistry with Necas. Kk is driving more offense than drury even with playing with Noesen /Fast/Turbo.

KK isn’t filling the void. He’s not playing special teams at all. Jarvis is playing Trochek’s role on the PK and Bunting is playing it on the PP. he is very literally not filling the void.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

KK isn’t filling the void. He’s not playing special teams at all. Jarvis is playing Trochek’s role on the PK and Bunting is playing it on the PP. he is very literally not filling the void.

In 5v5 he is filling the roster void. As far as special teams were weren’t going to get KK to fill that void, we had to get a righty to do that for FO purposes.

 

[Joe McGrath]

In 5v5 he is filling the roster void. As far as special teams were weren’t going to get KK to fill that void, we had to get a righty to do that for FO purposes.

Bunting is left handed.

In 5 on 5 he’s filling Paul Stastny’s role right now.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Bunting is left handed.

In 5 on 5 he’s filling Paul Stastny’s role right now.

Jarvis is not.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Jarvis is not.

So why are there 8 forwards ahead of him on the power play?

If you aren’t one of the top 8 offensive forwards on the team, and you’re not one of the top 6 defensive forwards on the team, what are you?

Trocheck was both. He’s better at everything than KK by a decent margin.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

So why are there 8 forwards ahead of him on the power play?

And has the pp suffered without Trocheck? Or the pk?

No, again, he was replaceable. We have effectively replaced him without that contract risk.

We have been just as successful, if not more, without tro in the “2c” spot / pp / pk.

 

[Joe McGrath]

And has the pp suffered without Trocheck? Or the pk?

No, again, he was replaceable. We have effectively replaced him without that contract risk.

We have been just as successful, if not more, without tro in the “2c” spot / pp / pk.

They have a guy making $1 million less than Trochek for 4 extra years who is playing the role you could get for the veteran minimum. And you’re talking about contract risk. Paying a fourth line center over $4 mill for ANOTHER SEVEN YEARS is a big f***ing risk.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

They have a guy making $1 million less than Trochek for 4 extra years who is playing the role you could get for the veteran minimum. And you’re talking about contract risk. Paying a fourth line center over $4 mill for ANOTHER SEVEN YEARS is a big f***ing risk.

Again kk is driving more offense than drury. Its all about who is playing better with necas. That is drury.

There is 0 contract risk with Kk tho. literally 0.01% risk

 

[Joe McGrath]

Again kk is driving more offense than drury. Its all about who is playing better with necas. That is drury.

There is 0 contract risk with Kk tho. literally 0.01% risk

There is 6 years at 4.8 mil left on KKs contract. There are 5 years at 5.6 left on Trochek’s contract. Having 6 years left on a contract of a guy who isn’t good is very bad. See Rask, Viktor.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm staying out of this one.