NEW: Scott Wheeler Says Stenberg to Sharks (For Now) | Ravensbergen Talks Carels EP 130

[Star Platinum]

Is he saying Sharks should draft or Sharks prefer to draft Stenberg?

He gets no vote and I'm certain he has no idea who the Sharks actually want

 

[themelkman]

Is he saying Sharks should draft or Sharks prefer to draft Stenberg?

I think hes saying he believes they will

 

[Kcoyote3]

I think hes saying he believes they will

this is the correct interpretation

 

[timorous me]

this is the correct interpretation

That was a good and interesting conversation—definitely appreciate Scott's time and thought. But I do feel like he's kind of thinking too much just about points and production and not enough about the overall build of the team.

Production is, of course, really great, but he defaults to points as king a little too much for my liking. (A good barometer for this right now is how someone talks about Zayne Parekh.) I have no doubt that Stenberg could be really good for the Sharks (I'm not going to be mad if they draft him—it'll be fun, for sure), but how does a player of his size and style fit with the young forwards already there for the Sharks? How do you win going forward if you just kind of keep ignoring D and, as he suggested, take a look at free agency? What are you getting there, realistically? The kinds of pieces that will fit with this core and help you win meaningful playoff games in the coming years?

The way he kind of ignored Chernyshov at first, too, when talking about the Sharks' young forward core (with Stenberg included) was telling, as well. It's not like Cherny is a physical presence, but he is bigger and does provide different size and skill from the other forwards in the lineup, and to pick him out specifically as a guy to maybe trade away feels like it shows a lack of understanding of how you build the best group possible—even if you're not always going with the top point production or raw skill or however you might define it.

Anyway, thanks for a great interview that obviously got me thinking about a lot of stuff!

 

[Surfer Dude]

i was more invested in Sheng getting his refund than the draft, thanks for making that a 30 min segment in itself. seriously tho, appreciate him for the hard work he puts in.

nothing really groundbreaking cover but when you guys talked about fixing the D at the end, you guys talked trade but the more obvious path is stop gaps in UFA from Carlson to Trouba types to RA, Raddysh. Is that gonna be it's own segment after the draft? i hope Sheng has no issues with his next AirBNB next time and we can hear about UFA also....

 

[tiburon12]

I thought Wheeler shared a similar sentiment to one a lot of us have. Stenberg's potential is too good to pass up unless Grier is "dead sure about a defenseman" (i think those were his exact words).

He also seemed to agree that there was something about each defenseman that causes him to have a bit of doubt around them hitting their ceiling, and that doubt is big enough to overcome the gap in positional value of D v W.

But i wonder if he's looking for flaws because he is so confident in Stenberg.

 

[coooldude]

I thought Wheeler shared a similar sentiment to one a lot of us have. Stenberg's potential is too good to pass up unless Grier is "dead sure about a defenseman" (i think those were his exact words).

He also seemed to agree that there was something about each defenseman that causes him to have a bit of doubt around them hitting their ceiling, and that doubt is big enough to overcome the gap in positional value of D v W.

But i wonder if he's looking for flaws because he is so confident in Stenberg.

I think it's also the age old question of the best player now vs the best player in 5 years.

Stenberg is arguably a clear 1OA based on historical production and play style today. He is probably the front runner for the calder at the start of the season. So from that point of view you don't pass on him. And that's what Wheeler is citing and saying a lot.

Production does of course indicate potential. Stenberg isn't likely a finished product. But for all the talk of the bust list of top D, here's Stenberg's peers in top WC draft year tournament production: Laine, Kakko, Lafreniere. Track record of high scoring wingers at that tourney is shocking. Stenberg has the top 2 all time per game SHL production to bolster his case, and then the nitpicking starts.

The projection is the hard part of course. I said it a week ago but Reid Stenberg or Verhoeff will look like obvious Grier picks the moment they are made. Smits would too but seems like that ship has sailed.

 

[sampler]

I wonder if the hf board would feel differently about this pick if we had a solid NHL D already. Like if you knew, 100%, that this summer, we would sign raddysh to a 5, 45m deal and would trade for Hronek as well.

Would adding those two guys change who we want to pick? What if the Hronek trade included eklund? (Like Eklund+cagnoni+#20 for Hronek)

I get the feeling, it would very significantly change the feeling of who to pick and suddenly Stenberg becomes the clear choice.

I think that scenario is the idea behind the stenberg over Reid camp. Looking at current need and drafting away from consensus BPA is the draft mistake Grier is dead set on avoiding. We are couple big moves from revolutionizing the D, specifically the RHD, and we need to improve the D now anyways which this pick won’t help.

The argument is that we cannot lose sight of the forest for the trees. We are building a long term winner. You do that by adding the most talent possible and then maneuvering strategically. That’s Griers motto and aside from the wang pick, he’s really stuck to it and it’s worked very well so far. He got cherny as a consensus faller. LSW as a faller. Dick as a faller. Cagnoni as a faller….

The big question is his skill in strategic maneuvering but I think without that skill, you cannot build a winner no matter what.

 

[sampler]

I think it's also the age old question of the best player now vs the best player in 5 years.

Stenberg is arguably a clear 1OA based on historical production and play style today. He is probably the front runner for the calder at the start of the season. So from that point of view you don't pass on him. And that's what Wheeler is citing and saying a lot.

Production does of course indicate potential. Stenberg isn't likely a finished product. But for all the talk of the bust list of top D, here's Stenberg's peers in top WC draft year tournament production: Laine, Kakko, Lafreniere. Track record of high scoring wingers at that tourney is shocking. Stenberg has the top 2 all time per game SHL production to bolster his case, and then the nitpicking starts.

The projection is the hard part of course. I said it a week ago but Reid Stenberg or Verhoeff will look like obvious Grier picks the moment they are made. Smits would too but seems like that ship has sailed.

1. The best player today is likely the best player in five years. I don’t get the idea that a stud today will level off while a lesser player today will surpass. Thats weird unless there are major other objective factors like age differences, which exists here as a guy like voerhoff is nearly a full year younger than stenberg, or physical changes (like a guy grows three inches after the draft).

2. Projecting needs 5 years out is a fools errand. Unforeseen opportunities constantly arise. Who saw raddysh becoming a 20+ goal 70+pt RHD? Who saw the jets or Florida missing the playoffs entirely?

Things happen and that leads to unexpected player availability. 5 year plans suddenly change when those opportunities arise. GMs must be nimble. DW jumped at the unexpected chance to land Thornton. Changed the franchise.

Grill have these opportunities arise. The question is: will he notice the right chances? And will he strike?

 

[matt trick]

I wonder if the hf board would feel differently about this pick if we had a solid NHL D already. Like if you knew, 100%, that this summer, we would sign raddysh to a 5, 45m deal and would trade for Hronek as well.

Would adding those two guys change who we want to pick? What if the Hronek trade included eklund? (Like Eklund+cagnoni+#20 for Hronek)

I get the feeling, it would very significantly change the feeling of who to pick and suddenly Stenberg becomes the clear choice.

I think that scenario is the idea behind the stenberg over Reid camp. Looking at current need and drafting away from consensus BPA is the draft mistake Grier is dead set on avoiding. We are couple big moves from revolutionizing the D, specifically the RHD, and we need to improve the D now anyways which this pick won’t help.

The argument is that we cannot lose sight of the forest for the trees. We are building a long term winner. You do that by adding the most talent possible and then maneuvering strategically. That’s Griers motto and aside from the wang pick, he’s really stuck to it and it’s worked very well so far. He got cherny as a consensus faller. LSW as a faller. Dick as a faller. Cagnoni as a faller….

The big question is his skill in strategic maneuvering but I think without that skill, you cannot build a winner no matter what.

I think with an asset like 2, you just pick most valuable asset to SJ/bpa, however, I think it’s an interesting question. Also, while we don’t know the answer Grier will. He’ll have likely checked in on Samberg, Morrisey, Byram, Hronek, Hamilton, Harley, Schneider, Nemec, Werenski, Seider, Sanderson, Chabot, Edvinsson, Broberg, and McAvoy. Huge amount of those guys will be unavailable or only available for Misa (not the ones we’d move him for).

Byram- and the untouchable guys- is the only guy who would influence me away from a player (Reid). Also I probably wouldn’t go Carels if I had Dickie and Byram. Hronek, Samberg, and Harley fit anywhere.

If I traded Misa for Werenski (wouldn’t, but would trade 2+ a lot more), you have to consider Malhotra.

looking back ~3-4 top pair dmen move each year. I want to draft and trade for one (this year, next, or even the year after).

Sometimes we won’t have the assets (if the team wants a C and Misa is too valuable), other times it’ll be a key rival, and still others the player won’t fit what we want to do.

 

[coooldude]

1. The best player today is likely the best player in five years.

Oh okay, you solved scouting.

2. Projecting needs 5 years out is a fools errand. Unforeseen opportunities constantly arise. Who saw raddysh becoming a 20+ goal 70+pt RHD? Who saw the jets or Florida missing the playoffs entirely?

Oh, maybe you didn't solve scouting after all!

 

[hohosaregood]

tbh not really a fan of Wheeler's scouting. he explains his POV well but i just don't agree with his player ideology.

 

[timorous me]

tbh not really a fan of Wheeler's scouting. he explains his POV well but i just don't agree with his player ideology.

He's someone who's thoughtful enough and brings enough insights that I do try to read a lot of his articles, but yeah, I think at the core I just have some disagreements with a lot of his perspectives. Which is okay—it's good to be open to listening to considered, differing points of view.

 

[the dangler]

really good episode. makes sense stenberg at 2 if they can't trade down. reid or carels if they can. perfectly reasonable.

 

[Star Platinum]

tbh not really a fan of Wheeler's scouting. he explains his POV well but i just don't agree with his player ideology.

I agree. He strikes me as the kid in the class who does all the assigned reading, shows up for every class, studies for the final exam really hard, and then inexplicably picks all the wrong answers on the multiple choice quiz. And when I listen to him explain the logic behind his thought process, I wonder if he actually hears himself speaking because on the one hand he's telling you how much more valuable a defender would be if he's good, but then he just goes winger anyway because he's decided that Stenberg is a potential Calder trophy winner without justifying why.

 

[sharski]

This draft is tearing us apart

 

[Jargon]

This draft is tearing us apart

it’s tearing us apart lisa

 

[Star Platinum]

This draft is tearing us apart

I'll take the house, you can have the car and primary custody of the kids

 

[pappaf2]

I think hes saying he believes they will

I mean that’s the idea right? Teams need to believe that GMMG plans on drafting Stenburg. That way for the Nucks and Hawks etc if they want to draft one of the top forwards (stenburg or malhotra) they will be more compelled to trade with the sharks in order to secure one of them. If they “know” the sharks are picking a d man they can just wait and draft whichever of stenburg / malhotra that fall to them. It behooves the sharks for other teams to think they might pick a forward.

 

[SJS1991]

This draft is tearing us apart

i mean, its just because people go to the extremes on their "preferred outcome".

Its likely Reid or Stenberg, which tracks with i would say 90% of the fan base... and it comes down to your view on Reid's projection. If you see him as a top pair (not even a true #1) you likely are in the "draft Reid" camp. If you are worry about his projection or defensemen projections in general... you likely are in the "draft Stenberg" camp.

Fans should be happy because SJ will get another top prospect regardless if its Reid or Stenberg. Wheeler even stated Reid is right up there, if not a better prospect than the 2024 defensemen class. So SJ is getting a good piece regardless.

 

[timorous me]

he just goes winger anyway because he's decided that Stenberg is a potential Calder trophy winner without justifying why.

Points! And, yeah, immediate impact. A good GM has to look long-term, big picture, etc., however. And I feel like that's what Wheeler's missing in the end.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Two of the most underratedly bad decisions in Sharks's history: taking Michalek and Mueller for their NHL-readiness.

 

[Shark Finn]

it’s tearing us apart lisa

I did not scout him. It's not true. It's bullshit! I did not scout him. I did naaht. Oh hi Hasso!

 

[coooldude]

Two of the most underratedly bad decisions in Sharks's history: taking Michalek and Mueller for their NHL-readiness.

Michalek is hard to criticize. Without the knee injury he's potentially a RW stalwart for us.

 

[mogambomoroo]

I wonder if the hf board would feel differently about this pick if we had a solid NHL D already. Like if you knew, 100%, that this summer, we would sign raddysh to a 5, 45m deal and would trade for Hronek as well.

Would adding those two guys change who we want to pick? What if the Hronek trade included eklund? (Like Eklund+cagnoni+#20 for Hronek)

I get the feeling, it would very significantly change the feeling of who to pick and suddenly Stenberg becomes the clear choice.

I think that scenario is the idea behind the stenberg over Reid camp. Looking at current need and drafting away from consensus BPA is the draft mistake Grier is dead set on avoiding. We are couple big moves from revolutionizing the D, specifically the RHD, and we need to improve the D now anyways which this pick won’t help.

The argument is that we cannot lose sight of the forest for the trees. We are building a long term winner. You do that by adding the most talent possible and then maneuvering strategically. That’s Griers motto and aside from the wang pick, he’s really stuck to it and it’s worked very well so far. He got cherny as a consensus faller. LSW as a faller. Dick as a faller. Cagnoni as a faller….

The big question is his skill in strategic maneuvering but I think without that skill, you cannot build a winner no matter what.

Don't get me wrong I respect your drive to write in HFBoards, it's refreshing for someone to write a lot of future ideas for the Sharks, I respect that.
But do you honestly see Raddysh as a solution?
You've banged the drum for Raddysh for as long as I remember and I do get that his stats look good, but have you considered that it's a major red flag that Tampa Bay hasn't signed him. Hedman also being very close to the end of his career, it would make sense for them to push all of their chips to keep a player like Raddysh to quarterback that powerplay, but they haven't. I trust organization like Tampa Bay to acknowledge talent since they've won couple of cups, but they even let their captain go to free agency after knowing he's probably not in his prime anymore. I think it will end very badly for the Sharks to sign a wild card like Raddysh to a long term contract at this point of their window.

That's why I'm banging the drum for players like Trouba and Carlson, I think they can bring some of that leadership that will help the young group.

If Sharks for some reason sign Raddysh, then I trust they know what they're doing.