The NHL is entering a new age. The hockey version of Captain Jean-Luc Picard: going where it has never gone before.
Everything we understood is changing. Contract comparables, economics, you name it. And if it is confusing for you and me, imagine what it's like for the people who really need to make these decisions on the fly — one month from a trade deadline.
Brief history lesson: when the NHL/NHLPA did their COVID CBA, there were two options. One was “low escrow” — less withheld from player paycheques, but it meant the cap would stay lower for a longer time. The other was paying back their debt faster, allowing the ceiling a quicker rise. But that meant higher holdbacks.
There is no phrase players hate more than escrow, so they avoided it like the plague.
Back then, no one knew where we were going. How long before fans returned to arenas? Would revenues recover? Everyone was on edge.
Thankfully, the worst-case scenarios evaporated. Depending on who you talk to, if the 50/50 split that existed in 2019 was still in place, the cap would be anywhere from $102-$105 million now. With record-high revenue projections, we’re headed into uncharted territory: $95.5 million in 2025-26, $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28. The memo outlining these numbers indicated next season is set, but the following two can be adjusted. The world is more volcanic than stable, so you never know where things are going. But several sources believe that if the current path continues, those limits will go slightly higher.
The league, overall, is healthy. There are always worries (regional television, Canadian dollar) but the good outweighs the bad. Tampa Bay’s sale price was just under $2 billion and minority-stake franchise valuations are strong. It's very interesting that the NHL and the union agreed to “de-link” the cap from exact revenues for another three seasons — keeping escrow low was a motivating factor for the players — but if numbers dictate that’s how much they are to be paid, that’s what they’ve earned.
