ottomaddox
Registered User
I suppose I could do a roster based on Toughness by showing penalty minutes, but why bother?
New Line combos and roster thread
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I suppose I could do a roster based on Toughness by showing penalty minutes, but why bother?
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
eh, whatever. I don't see how your roster is an analytics roster, is all. If you don't care to share, that's fine.
Coachcorner
Senor Martinez
- Sep 28, 2017
- 6,285
- 4,989
That's hard sire. I'm kinda bout that there
I will have to see tavares in EVERY pp we start the season though. Every single one. He one of our best gezoarers sire.At least that powerplay wouldn't be allowing own goals. Cause of the two d-men.
But yes, tavares should always, always be there. Starting the whole rotation from the faceoff on.
Honestly I like having Nylander on the left side and Matthews on the right side on the PP. Gives us two shooting threats from the wing.
ottomaddox
Registered User
Fine. You don't like where I put Kase and Brodie. That's fine by me. Agree to Disagree.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
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ottomaddox
Registered User
ottomaddox
Registered User
You're kind of being ridiculous though. How perfect does it have to be? It doesn't mean a damn thing. Keefe might construct something quite different. Some players might take major steps and impress in Training Camp.
You can post whatever lineup you want, but the lineup you posted is not consistent with the analytics you referenced, or really any analytics.
SHANNYPLAN
Registered User
- Nov 24, 2016
- 5,305
- 2,678
RITCHIE - MATTHEWS - MARNER
BUNTING - TAVARES - NYLANDER
KERFOOT - - - - KAMPF - - - - KASE
SIMMONDS - - SPEZZA - - GABRIEL
RIELLY - - - BRODIE
MUZZIN - - - - HOLL
SANDIN - DERMOTT
CAMPBELL
MRAZEK
BUNTING - TAVARES - NYLANDER
KERFOOT - - - - KAMPF - - - - KASE
SIMMONDS - - SPEZZA - - GABRIEL
RIELLY - - - BRODIE
MUZZIN - - - - HOLL
SANDIN - DERMOTT
CAMPBELL
MRAZEK
ottomaddox
Registered User
No. The line-up comes from Analytics. You know as well as I do that "it's what you choose to do with those numbers" is the key difference here. I mean before last season Keefe had every measurement to his disposal and still put Thornton on the top line.
Then whatever "analytics" you're using are not the analytics you referenced, or any common analytical method.
ottomaddox
Registered User
No they're quote common.
Matthews CF% 53.8
Tavares CF% 53.1
Kerfoot CF% 48.0
Kampf CF% 47.5
I am not sure I listed everything, but I did type "etc."
CF% = CF / (CF + CA)
Isn't that what you use?
Where is your analytics based roster?
That's four players. Even ignoring the fact that no analytic model promotes using contextless CF% to create lineups, the rest of your posted lineup doesn't even follow that same methodology.
TheGroceryStick
Registered User
I'm still liking the 3 line idea. Dont think it'll sit well with fans, because we are accustomed to wanting "load it up"
Ritchie - Matthews - Nylander
Robertson - Tavares - Kase
Bunting - Spezza - Marner
Simmonds - Kampf - Mikhayev
Kerfoot ++ for upgraded dman (Manson? )
Muzzin-Brodie
Rielly - Manson
Sandin/Dermott - Holl
Ritchie - Matthews - Nylander
Robertson - Tavares - Kase
Bunting - Spezza - Marner
Simmonds - Kampf - Mikhayev
Kerfoot ++ for upgraded dman (Manson? )
Muzzin-Brodie
Rielly - Manson
Sandin/Dermott - Holl
I'd go:
Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Dermott
First injury callup - Liljegren (though hopefully he starts with the Marlies, needs to keep playing, wait to call him up until there's actually an injury)
I think Holl received more criticism than he deserved last year, he's a perfectly serviceable 4D, and he and Muzzin make a good shutdown pair. I also really like Rielly/Brodie, so I'd leave last year's top 4 in place. Maybe switch Holl and Dermott if things aren't working out, but I'd start with the above, and regardless of pairing these 6 seem to be the clear choice.
I think it's clear that we're only gonna have 1 righty in our top 6 (Holl) - don't see Lily or Biega making the top 6 just because they're righties. Brodie is a better RD than LD regardless, and IMO Dermott is pretty solid on the right side too - a bit better on the left, but not a huge difference or anything. He's probably the next most comfortable playing the off side, after Brodie.
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TheGroceryStick
Registered User
This PP should...should score a bunch.
Tavares = Net / Cycle/Bumper
Matthews = strong shooting wall
Nylander = secondary shooting option
Marner = rover / QB
???? = lack a big shot from the point. (Groom one)
Tavares = Net / Cycle/Bumper
Matthews = strong shooting wall
Nylander = secondary shooting option
Marner = rover / QB
???? = lack a big shot from the point. (Groom one)
ottomaddox
Registered User
I think you're ignoring a lot facts here.
I already stated that I built this roster for fun.
I also stated that Keefe would find my roster meaningless.
If you're saying that I should follow a more consistent methodology based on the fact that Keefe does check in to HF, then maybe I'll take your opinion more seriously.
Clearly analytics can be a fun tool, and I built a roster based on analytics.
If you want to post a roster for fun, that's fine. It's just weird to call it an analytics-based roster when it really doesn't align with any common analytical methodology.
Bottom six is too messy to project. Too many contingencies.
The two top 6 wing vacancies will be a competition between Bunting, Ritchie and Kase (if Nylander switches to LW).
IMO Bunting is the ideal fit for the Matthews-Marner line despite his lack of NHL pedigree. Those two need a buzzsaw F1 with speed who retrieves and hands off pucks; that player doesn't need to be a top 6er in a vacuum. Bunting doesn't hang on to pucks. Ritchie is too slow for that line and doesn't make quick enough decisions with the puck. Bunting's short game and one touch passes are a strong suit so he's the obvious fit there.
Ritchie with JT is the more likely fit. Tavares can play at a slower pace and is a good puck retriever on his own. He can elevate any linemate and will feed Ritchie 15-20 goals against 2nd/3rd pairs.
Ideally, Roberston grows into the 2LW slot because he's a perfect stylistic fit for that line, and then you can run Ritchie-Kerfoot-Kase as an energy line with scoring touch. There's chemistry between Ritchie-Kase from ANA. Robertson might be a mid-season secret weapon after a stint with the Marlies, if needed.
The two top 6 wing vacancies will be a competition between Bunting, Ritchie and Kase (if Nylander switches to LW).
IMO Bunting is the ideal fit for the Matthews-Marner line despite his lack of NHL pedigree. Those two need a buzzsaw F1 with speed who retrieves and hands off pucks; that player doesn't need to be a top 6er in a vacuum. Bunting doesn't hang on to pucks. Ritchie is too slow for that line and doesn't make quick enough decisions with the puck. Bunting's short game and one touch passes are a strong suit so he's the obvious fit there.
Ritchie with JT is the more likely fit. Tavares can play at a slower pace and is a good puck retriever on his own. He can elevate any linemate and will feed Ritchie 15-20 goals against 2nd/3rd pairs.
Ideally, Roberston grows into the 2LW slot because he's a perfect stylistic fit for that line, and then you can run Ritchie-Kerfoot-Kase as an energy line with scoring touch. There's chemistry between Ritchie-Kase from ANA. Robertson might be a mid-season secret weapon after a stint with the Marlies, if needed.
Bunting may well prove to be a good fit for that line, but I disagree with the idea that Matthews and marner need someone to retrieve the puck for them. They never have. And Matthews specifically has been as good as anyone on this team at taking pucks from people. He's actually kinda a beast
That's definitely the more efficient PP alignment. Marner makes sense as a below-the-goal line playmaker, considering he is not much of a shot threat. However, there was reporting that he refused to play anywhere other than the left flank on the PP.
I agree that Matthews is actually very underrated as a forechecker and is definitely one of the best at stealing pucks/picking up loose pucks. The issue there is the opportunity cost. You'd probably rather have someone else doing the digging and having Matthews manoeuvre into a soft spot or scoring location, considering his shooting ability.
Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander
Simmonds - Engvall - Mikheyev
Kase/Ritchie - Kampf - Spezza
Brooks
I imagine Engvall/Mik will be used in a defensive orientation, which probably rules out Nick Ritchie. Kampf likely will be deployed with the former two, but Jack Han's analysis (former Maple Leafs player development analyst) indicates that Kampf is actually an underrated complementary player, doing the defensive work to allow for transition players to get going (which could be a nice fit with Spezza/Kase).
I don't see Robertson as NHL ready right now. I'm a big fan of the Kase signing, but there's a pretty large risk he just can't play hockey anymore. Brooks is a nice fit as the 13th/utility forward. Wild cards are really just Anderson and Semenyov.
ottomaddox
Registered User
SCF and SCA
Yes it does. You just don't agree with the line combos I created. Or maybe you expect perfection.
"it really doesn't align with any common analytical methodology."
Yes it does. I gave you a small sample size.
You're knowledgeable CF%. Did you post in this thread? What did your roster look like (based on common anal methodology)?
HDCF and HDCA
