Prospect Info: New Jersey Devils Draft Simon Nemec, 2nd Overall

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pkbrux

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Jul 19, 2006
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For me, just using my eye test, Nemec was my second favorite prospect in the draft after Slaf.

I would have been fine with Wright, but he certainly did not blow me away in any of the games I watched him. A huge chunk of his value for me was that he was a center. When you take away that he plays a premium position, he is even less appealing of a prospect to me.

I think Nemec looks like a significantly better player to me, and when you factor in that the one thing that could put Wright ahead of him (playing a premium position) isnt a need for the Devils, makes it a slam dunk to take Nemec.

IMO Nemec is both the better player and plays a position the Devils desperately need. Its a win-win.
 
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hidek91

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But what if you have 2 players with extremely close rankings, where one fills a tremendous need and the other plays a position you’re loaded with talent at already?

How can you say for sure the Devils (and quite a few other teams) didn’t have Nemec and Wright as near equals?
I honestly can't but it would mean that the rankings of teams were completely different from the rankings of journalists in which Wright was virtually always above Nemec. In my post I'm assuming that they scoffed on centers because of "need".
 

Zippy316

aka Zippo
Aug 17, 2012
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Any news on where Nemec would play next year?

Wondering if he potentially signs his ELC and maybe plays a full year in the AHL. It seems like the next step after the Slovak League would either be Sweden, Finland, CHL, or NCAA. Not sure where he stands on NCAA and I think there’s a strong argument that learning the NA game in AHL may be more beneficial than Sweden/Finland.
 

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
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The pretzel twist logic you have to go through to end up that Nemec at 2 is some major miss already is mind boggling.

It’s obviously not a miss yet, people are just upset they devalue their own picks by weighing need too much too high in the draft.

And only second guesser extraordinaires would look at Nico as a miss pick by not going off board, but if you do go off board and it’s the other (on-board) guy who in fact becomes a star? Then that pretty much dooms a GM.
 
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Triumph

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Oct 2, 2007
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We may be talking about different "young players" but if Wright reaches his potential than the good comparables would be Ryan Johansen and Dubois trades, first brought Seth Jones entering his prime and the latter brought Patrik Laine entering his prime.

There haven't been many trades including young star centers because teams simply don't trade them away. Fialas and DeBrincats aren't comparable to them IMO.

These are bad comparables because neither Dubois nor Johansen entered the league with two guys on top of them. In his last full season in Columbus, Dubois led the team in scoring while playing 18 minutes a game - Boone Jenner got more ice time as a center, but Dubois was right behind him. Ryan Johansen was leading the team in PPTOI/game when he was dealt. It's unlikely that Wright would've had similar opportunities.
 

Captain3rdLine

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Sep 24, 2020
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This post reads like an exact copy of something that was said for Mukhamadullin and Stillman.

At some point you have to accept its a trend. It has not been an issue yet because the team is picking top5 every year but there are major concerns going forward when our only 1st round pick ends up in the late teens and twenties.
It isn’t the same whatsoever. Dumb thing to say. There was lots of people who would’ve taken Nemec in the top 2 and it wasn’t really a big reach at all. And there’s no obvious realistic trade back we could’ve made where we still get him.

Just two factual statements.
 

Buggsy

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Sep 16, 2009
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Fitz has done this before…going for need over BPA with ‘first’ round picks

2020 - Holtz was the best scorer and Muk was the best big defenseman available but BPA, not really

2021 - Stillman was the best power forward available, again a reach as BPA

2022 - Nemec was the best RD available, Fitz pretty much admitted that’s why he was drafted.

Once is an accident, four times is an issue
You have 1 very good example of it with Stillman. Was a horrible decision then but o well.

Holtz was picked exactly where he was ranked.

Mukh was an absolute ceiling pick. Not sure how that fits picking for need.

Nemec was the best d available but was also a consistently ranked top 4 player. The fact that Fitz mentioned RD doesn't mean it was need instead of BPA. It's very likely that they rated Nemec and Wright the same and picked the position of need or just flat out ranked Nemec higher.

Edit: misremembered and Cooley got the first place .

Also you just ignore Hughes picks and Mercer because it doesn't fit your narrative
 
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Jersey Fresh

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I honestly can't but it would mean that the rankings of teams were completely different from the rankings of journalists in which Wright was virtually always above Nemec. In my post I'm assuming that they scoffed on centers because of "need".
More and more I don’t think you can divorce the residual shine of Wright’s “exceptional status” from his stagnated development. People still had him at the top of the draft as much for what he did at 15 as what he did at 18, and that definitely scares me (and multiple teams seemingly agreed).
 

Devils731

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Any news on where Nemec would play next year?

Wondering if he potentially signs his ELC and maybe plays a full year in the AHL. It seems like the next step after the Slovak League would either be Sweden, Finland, CHL, or NCAA. Not sure where he stands on NCAA and I think there’s a strong argument that learning the NA game in AHL may be more beneficial than Sweden/Finland.
Fitz implied he will compete for an NHL gig and then go AHL if he doesn’t get it.


““Nemec wants to come to North America next season. While his destination would likely be Utica of the American Hockey League, his real goal is to be playing in the National Hockey League.

"I want to go to North America," he said of his plans next year. "Maybe the American Hockey League. If there's an option for me, I want to play a couple games in the NHL."”
 

Traitor Zach

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Nemec apparently was very high on the lists of the Kraken, Flyers, Blue Jackets. He was always a guy who was going Top 5. I don't understand the furor or upset from some fans.

I like Wright. I do, but I get the Nemec pick from his skillset, the reports, some tape I've seen of him in action and body of work statistically when measured. He fits this team and is a good pick. Period.
 

Lou is God

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More and more I don’t think you can divorce the residual shine of Wright’s “exceptional status” from his stagnated development. People still had him at the top of the draft as much for what he did at 15 as what he did at 18, and that definitely scares me (and multiple teams seemingly agreed).
You do have to wonder how much of Wright's reputations as a standout 15-year old player carried to his #1 ranking leading up to this draft.
 

Rhodes 81

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Nov 22, 2008
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Hischier was universally ranked above Makar.

I think Nemec was honestly a bit of a luxury pick when we have Hamilton long term and will need to re-sign Severson. Nemec actually has a lot of qualities that project as a good Severson replacement, but there's no way he will be ready to step into that role by next year. His contract should still be nice and cheap to help be a huge + filling out the defense like Tampa and Colorado have done.

Enough talent evaluators who I value had Nemec close enough to Wright that I can call it a wash. To me the real opportunity cost is that by not trading the pick or using it to draft an NHL ready forward, we are committing to add to the top 6 in free agency. If Gaudreau and Forsberg stay where they are, that well dries up fast. Kind of putting all our eggs in Holtz exceeding expectations next year at that point.
 

Normal Devil

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When Arizona passed on Wright it was really clear that teams were not enamored with Wright. I think for the Devils, landing a potential top pair RD was a pretty good get. I would have liked see the Devils move down a couple picks, pick up another asset and still get Nemec, but that would have been risky.
 

Blackjack

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You know Nemec got a first place vote in bobs rankings right?

False:

3. Logan Cooley: The U.S. U-18 national team centre was the only prospect besides Slafkovsky and Wright to get a No. 1 vote from our panel of scouts, but also got a few votes at No. 2. At 5-foot-10 1/2, the skilled pivot has some dynamic offensive ability, especially in terms of his one-on-one play and a willingness to go to hard areas on the ice to score goals. Most scouts project him as a high-end second-line centre in the NHL with a chance to develop into a 1C. Size and not consistently using his linemates to maximum effectiveness are two things that could prevent that from happening.
 

Devils731

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Jun 23, 2008
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When Arizona passed on Wright it was really clear that teams were not enamored with Wright. I think for the Devils, landing a potential top pair RD was a pretty good get. I would have liked see the Devils move down a couple picks, pick up another asset and still get Nemec, but that would have been risky.
Pronman’s article on Wright slipping is pretty rough on Wright.

To paraphrase: “If Wright is so good then why doesn’t he impress more often?”
 

AfroThunder396

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Jan 8, 2006
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Again with the "picking for need" - we don't need a right handed defensemen today. We have a 1st pairing RHD and 2nd pairing RHD. 3rd pairing can either be a UFA or some journeyman, also who cares it's the 3rd pairing.

Either way, this pick doesn't help NJ in 2023. Nemec might get a cup of coffee as I expect him to start in Utica, but this player won't really have any effect on this coming season.

If Fitz was desperate and wanted to save his job, then surely he would have picked the guy he could plug into the 2023 lineup and get immediate dividends from, right? Or the rough-and-tumble boom/bust kind of prospect Fitz apparently has a boner for in Jiricek. Or overdrafting Cutter because he's big and feisty and hits people. THAT would be a shortsighted luxury pick. Not punting on the media darling to pick a boring steady defenseman who won't play this year.

There's no immediate gratification that comes with the Nemec pick. So why are we talking about need? We don't NEED him on the Devils roster right now, we have right handed guys for this season. A need pick would have been for a guy that can fill a slot now.
 

Azathoth

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May 25, 2017
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I mean I probably would have went with Wright, but my knowledge of prospects doesn't really go beyond whatever STI writes here.

And acting like Wright is a sure thing because he's been the consensus 1OA for a while now isn't a guarantee, just ask Philly how that can go.

Instead of complaining about how Wright is going to go on to become some star for Seattle, I think its much more fun to think about the (hopefully) yearly competition between Hughes 2.0 and Nemec to see who will get more Norris votes :dunno:
 

OmNomNom

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Mar 3, 2011
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Again with the "picking for need" - we don't need a right handed defensemen today. We have a 1st pairing RHD and 2nd pairing RHD. 3rd pairing can either be a UFA or some journeyman, also who cares it's the 3rd pairing.

Either way, this pick doesn't help NJ in 2023. Nemec might get a cup of coffee as I expect him to start in Utica, but this player won't really have any effect on this coming season.

If Fitz was desperate and wanted to save his job, then surely he would have picked the guy he could plug into the 2023 lineup and get immediate dividends from, right? Or the rough-and-tumble boom/bust kind of prospect Fitz apparently has a boner for in Jiricek. Or overdrafting Cutter because he's big and feisty and hits people. THAT would be a shortsighted luxury pick. Not punting on the media darling to pick a boring steady defenseman who won't play this year.

There's no immediate gratification that comes with the Nemec pick. So why are we talking about need? We don't NEED him on the Devils roster right now, we have right handed guys for this season. A need pick would have been for a guy that can fill a slot now.
we could also pick up a different top 6er instead of wright - we don't need a rookie forward to slot in necessarily, regardless of how good he is
 

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
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Hischier was universally ranked above Makar.

I think Nemec was honestly a bit of a luxury pick when we have Hamilton long term and will need to re-sign Severson. Nemec actually has a lot of qualities that project as a good Severson replacement, but there's no way he will be ready to step into that role by next year. His contract should still be nice and cheap to help be a huge + filling out the defense like Tampa and Colorado have done.

Enough talent evaluators who I value had Nemec close enough to Wright that I can call it a wash. To me the real opportunity cost is that by not trading the pick or using it to draft an NHL ready forward, we are committing to add to the top 6 in free agency. If Gaudreau and Forsberg stay where they are, that well dries up fast. Kind of putting all our eggs in Holtz exceeding expectations next year at that point.
Yeah that's the other part of the problem...at first it was gonna be well we'll get Slaf and he's a good prospect who actually does fit a long-term need without going off board. Or it was maybe we'll trade the pick for a more immediate difference maker like DeBrincat or Thachuk (one of whom wasn't traded, one that was but without any extension). Then once both those options went off the board it became well we might as well take Wright then. Passing on him too and saying all these guys are in a mish-mash of ranks, it's like well what was even the point of keeping #2 then? This just seems like the worst of all possible options that played out.
 
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Derps

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This statement and the fact Wright was drafted #4 conflict with each other.

Not really. Each team could’ve had Wright as their number 2 or 3 prospect with Slaf, Nemec, and Cooley ranked above them.

MTL: slaf, Wright, nemec
Devils: slaf, nemec, wright
Arizona: Cooley, Wright, slaf

Wright still goes 4 despite being 2 and 3 on lists above.
 
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Devilsfan118

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Jun 11, 2010
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There's no immediate gratification that comes with the Nemec pick. So why are we talking about need? We don't NEED him on the Devils roster right now, we have right handed guys for this season. A need pick would have been for a guy that can fill a slot now.
Which is why, for me, after Slaf was off the board I was hoping the Devils would trade the pick for a player.

Again, by all accounts Fitz tried. Clearly the proper move wasn't out there, I guess. I'll give Fitz the benefit of the doubt that he did all he could do to try and pry Tkachuk out of Calgary. But we were essentially gifted an incredibly valuable asset here and used it to pick a player that, in all likelihood, will not have a significant impact on this franchise's ability to win games for at least 2-3 years.

So, here's hoping we do something significant in FA. I can't watch this dogshit hockey for much longer without completely writing this franchise off as inept and truly the Oilers of the east.
 
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MartyOwns

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Apr 1, 2007
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Which is why, for me, after Slaf was off the board I was hoping the Devils would trade the pick for a player.

Again, by all accounts Fitz tried. Clearly the proper move wasn't out there, I guess. I'll give Fitz the benefit of the doubt that he did all he could do to try and pry Tkachuk out of Calgary. But we were essentially gifted an incredibly valuable asset here and used it to pick a player that, in all likelihood, will not have a significant impact on this franchise's ability to win games for at least 2-3 years.

So, here's hoping we do something significant in FA. I can't watch this dogshit hockey for much longer without completely writing this franchise off as inept and truly the Oilers of the east.

because of the unique position we were in, i have no problem picking for need. but i couldn’t care less about how long it’ll take these kids to make an impact. that shouldn’t be a factor in drafting at all
 
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longislanddevil

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Jun 16, 2011
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Come on STI. There isn’t a realistic trade down where they would likely still get Nemec. He was clearly the guy they wanted.
You also can’t call it a need pick because you had Wright above or because most people did.
Lots of people had Nemec as a top 2 guy. The Devils and Fitz very possibly could’ve.

If you believe what Fitz is saying he saw there as being 4 guys with similar upside.
So if Slafkovsky went and he views Nemec, Wright, and Cooley as similar level prospects with similar upside as he’s suggested than it makes all the sense in the world for him to take Nemec. But that doesn’t mean it’s a need pick.

They were also obviously perfectly aware that Montreal could take Slafkovsky and very likely were extensively prepared for that situation. Suggesting otherwise is dumb. You know full well they went in with a plan and we’re prepared for the possibility of Slafkovsky being taken first. If Nemec was the guy there wanted it’s hard to picture any realistic trade back where they can still get him.
I was a starch supporter of trading down if Slaf was off the board. Two problems.

1- Realistically, if a team was going to trade to 2OA it would have been for Wright. Center is such a coveted position. Something happened…there was a sense that Wright himself had *perhaps* become a “white flag” prospect (before this gets nitpicked, it is not a commentary on my personal opinion as I simply would not know). When word starts to spread about a player’s compete level being questionable, that is a serious concern. The reality is we simply don’t know if there is more to his fall than we know. As a result, 2OA, which should have had far more value than it did, was possibly not the “power spot” we all imagined.

Seattle was interested in Nemec at 4 and I’d suspect they were confident he’d be there (or had another player they liked as much). If Cooley was Arizona’s guy, they surely knew he’d be there at 3. So who does Fitz make a trade with? Philly at 5? Hard to make a blockbuster with a division rival. The only viable possibility would have been Columbus with 6OA and 12OA but we don’t know what they thought about Wright.

I know a lot of my fellow Devils fans won’t want to hear this but who is to say the Devils didn’t have Nemec over Wright? Arizona had Cooley over Wright so this may not be as outrageous as one might think. Opinions are just speculation and pure conjecture. We simply do not know.

In regards to, if the Devils drafted “X” player last year or the year before, they’d have drafted “X” player here….admittedly, I am guilty in this line of thinking, as well….but it’s kind of silly if you think about it. We could say, “what if the Devils didn’t draft Zacha and took Barzal…maybe they win more games and are then not in the magical spot to win the draft lottery for Hughes.”

I agree Fitzgerald has not been good at managing assets in past drafts. With that said, I think he’s taking way too much unjustifiable heat here. I liked this pick (though I preferred Jiricek) and applaud him for having the conviction to bypass Wright. That took cojones.
 
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