Player Discussion Neal Pionk: Part II

[Machinehead]

What is really mind boggling is your absolute confidence that you know more than NHL coaches, scouts and GM's. I can't believe they aren't knocking down your virtual door and throwing money at you to fix their teams.

I can't believe you think coaches, scouts, and GM's know more than what the goals and shots say is actually happening.

 

[Machinehead]

Its a young, exciting player trying to find his way compared to an entire season's worth of the Buffalo Sabres. It's a cheap shot, and the work of a malcontent. Besides, shouldnt you be pissed at Quinn for this instead of the undrafted guy that has proven to be a hell of an offensive talent?

It's the truth. You're not interested in the truth which is why you dislike statistics.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I wanna hear actual criticisms and problems with his game. This is were analytics and advanced stats are useless. We know the team gets shelled when he's out there, and we know the conclusion that follows from getting shelled > is he can't play defense. I don't necessarily disagree.

Now here's where the discussion generally dies or ends. Since there are no metrics or convenient numbers to grab, and you basically have to go under the hood and watch the game tape, some people don't have time or access to that. Or if they did, they don't have scouting and hockey skills or knowledge to understand.

Then the noise of the back and forth between people who think this guy is good and the ones who think he's bad.

I've done little videos on the guy here and there but not the deep deep dive i've been wanting to do.

On a low level, I just don't think he's athletic and strong enough right now. He doesn't really win puck battles or separate guys from pucks. Ovi absolutely bullied him below the goal lines on the forecheck yesterday. Gets knocked off when protecting the puck along the boards. And he doesn't have the first step to separate from forecheckers. I've constantly criticized him for getting bottled up on the forecheck in puck retrieval situations.

His overall skating is overrated. He'll wow you with those rushes where he has time to get wound up and skate but he's not powerful, explosive or strong on his skates, doesn't have great edge work.

I can see why he was a UDFA. I think he's a longshot to be an impact or regular NHL D but I still see some glimmer of potential. He's a good kid and I hope he can figure some things out in his game and be more consistent with this team longer term.

He has shitty puck poise, gap control to go along with commonly being overwhelmed by any type of physical play. T he last of those points is something that will likely always be the case with him, hes never going to be chara and he just isn't quick enough to create separation as you pointed out (despite being pretty fast when he gets going.) He certainly tries to battle physically and doesn't shy away from it, but he's just not capable of dealing with it. Playing him and Staal together is so dumb.

Beyond that, I think hes pretty sleepy in his own end at times. For all the flack that DeAngelo gets for being "lost" in his own end, I think TDA's awareness inside his own blueline is much better than this guys', and thats before getting to other aspects of the game where hes just miles ahead of Pionk.

NP has been a beast on the PP and has shown flashes of some pretty awesome stuff beyond that, but the fact that the organization has chosen to force feed him (and Staal) minutes while treating TDA the way they have is worrisome.

 

[Machinehead]

I'm supposed to watch for something. The experts supposedly know something. What is that something?

Pionk is outshot, outchanced, and outscored. Somebody explain to me what else matters in this sport.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm supposed to watch for something. The experts supposedly know something. What is that something?

Pionk is outshot, outchanced, and outscored. Somebody explain to me what else matters in this sport.

Looking like you try hard and scoring awesome coast to coast goals.

FWIW, I think Pionk should stay in the lineup and get every opportunity to learn at this level. However, his ice time 5v5 and on the PK should drop and he has no business playing ahead of DeAngelo or Shattenkirk (who has quietly been very good after his ass start) either.

If you're going to keep the pairings intact (which they shouldn't, if anything DeAngelo should be the one lugging Staal's ass around, hes the one who excels at everything Pionk and Staal completely suck at) the other pairs should play more, and neither Pionk or Staal should sniff the PK.

 

[Machinehead]

It's not like this is a guy with good corsi who's outscored, or a guy with bad corsi and good GF%. Generally, that's where most of the arguing came from.

This guy is bad at EVERYTHING of consequence. This is the definitive case where we have to acknowledge that people who make decisions in this game are wrong about things.

And I think David Quinn has done a good job.

 

[apoptygma]

Is there any examples of young players that seemed they passed the eye-test, but got slaughtered statvise. But later
improved and then passed both the eye-test and the stat-test?

With the terrible stats NP have, I guess he has multiple short-comings, but are any of them easy to fix? I did see one said his zone break-outs are almost 100% around the glass, and many of those are getting intercepted.

 

[The S5]

Stop. I never played hockey but people still respect my opinion. Playing the game doesn’t make you an expert

I am attacking his take on Pionk. It's just silly and its all based on stats that lack context. They are not absolute. That is why there are coaches.
It has gotten to the point of being ridiculous.
I don't think playing makes you an expert but it gives you a unique perspective that someone who never played doesn't understand. Based on his nonstop nonsense regarding Pionk, I think he lacks that perspective.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Is there any examples of young players that seemed they passed the eye-test, but got slaughtered statvise. But latest
improved and then passed both the eye-test and the stat-test?

With the terrible stats NP have, I guess he has multiple short-comings, but are any of them easy to fix? I did see one said his zone break-outs are almost 100% around the glass, and many of those are getting intercepted.

Easy? No, but some of the stuff is correctable.

For instance, if he can improve his first step quickness and short area quickness, that will help him with create the space for himself to make a strong pass out of his own end or possibly skate it out himself. He makes fine passes when he has the time and space and his straight ahead speed is pretty good once he gets going. If he can sharpen those two things out, he'll be that much better for it. I think he panic's himself into bad decisions with the puck on his stick in his own end, but he also doesn't have the quickness to create that space for himself to buy some time or to create an open passing lane (watch DeAngelo, hes a master at this.)

The other stuff, its harder.

 

[Machinehead]

Is there any examples of young players that seemed they passed the eye-test, but got slaughtered statvise. But later
improved and then passed both the eye-test and the stat-test?

With the terrible stats NP have, I guess he has multiple short-comings, but are any of them easy to fix? I did see one said his zone break-outs are almost 100% around the glass, and many of those are getting intercepted.

Roman Josi

 

[apoptygma]

Easy? No, but some of the stuff is correctable.

For instance, if he can improve his first step quickness and short area quickness, that will help him with create the space for himself to make a strong pass out of his own end or possibly skate it out himself. He makes fine passes when he has the time and space and his straight ahead speed is pretty good once he gets going. If he can sharpen those two things out, he'll be that much better for it. I think he panic's himself into bad decisions with the puck on his stick in his own end, but he also doesn't have the quickness to create that space for himself to buy some time or to create an open passing lane (watch DeAngelo, hes a master at this.)

The other stuff, its harder.

Roman Josi

Thanks guys! It seems that NP will have more then enough ice-time this season to make this an oportunity to follow.

 

[CasusBelli]

Looking like you try hard and scoring awesome coast to coast goals.

FWIW, I think Pionk should stay in the lineup and get every opportunity to learn at this level. However, his ice time 5v5 and on the PK should drop and he has no business playing ahead of DeAngelo or Shattenkirk (who has quietly been very good after his ass start) either.

If you're going to keep the pairings intact (which they shouldn't, if anything DeAngelo should be the one lugging Staal's ass around, hes the one who excels at everything Pionk and Staal completely suck at) the other pairs should play more, and neither Pionk or Staal should sniff the PK.

I think he’ll learn quickly. He should be RD on 2 ES and LD / RD on 1PP on this team. I could, however, see him develop into a more complete player. Will he be a bona fide first pairing defenseman? I doubt it. But he should be a power play staple and maybe even play PK2 down the road.

Bottom line: he skates well and he handles the puck well. His decisions could be better at times, especially in his own zone, but I think he’ll learn. He’s going to be a great signing in the long run.

 

[mrmovies779]

Do analytics show when Staal fumbles a pass from any teammate in his own zone that leads to a turnover and extended d zone time and shots against?serious question- because it happens alot

 

[Machinehead]

Do analytics show when Staal fumbles a pass from any teammate in his own zone that leads to a turnover and extended d zone time and shots against?serious question- because it happens alot

None that are publicly available, but the numbers we have don't show Staal to be driving force here. If what you're positing was a major issue, it would reflect somewhere in the numbers.

Staal Without Pionk

55.2% CF
44% GF
67.4% High-Danger Chances


Pionk Without Staal

45.2% CF
14.2% GF (not a typo)
44.2% High-Danger Chances

I understand how much we want to make this a Marc Staal problem, but it's not a Marc Staal problem. I think we have to honest about the results Pionk is getting.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Alright, deployment and QoC. It can be difficult to discern how a specific player does against certain tiers of competition since you rarely accumulate significant TOI against a certain player and since the death hockeyanalysis.com there are no WOWYs where you can aggregate a players competition into tiers and determine how they perform against each tier - which is the method I used back in 2013 do prove that Girirdi did in fact play badly against top competition (and was actually pretty decent against weak competition) and that Strålman in fact could handle top competition. I feel pretty vindicated by how events played out that time.

I think I've found a way with the 2018-19 New York Rangers though.

Since getting split up from Chris Kreider, David Quinn has deployed Mika Zibanejad in an extreme matchup role (33.91 zone start ratio) and we can look into how each of our RD's have performed when playing with Zibanejad without Kreider.

Pionk, as suspected, has struggled heavily. In the 94 minutes that combination has played together 5v5 the RelCF% in that deployment is -8.37, the RelSCF% is -12.58, the RelHDCF% is -8.25 and the RelGF% -8.72. While I'm ready to toss out the RelGF% in such a small sample, it is in line with the other numbers and of what you would expect. The ZSR for the combo was 32.76.

DeAngelo has done decently. In the 47 minutes that combination has played together 5v5 the RelCF% in that deployment is +5.05, the RelSCF% is -0.26, the RelHDCF% is -1.55 and the RelGF% -55.93 (LMAO, this is due to NYR not scoring a single goal). The ZSR for the combo was 37.14.

Shattenkirk, probably surprisingly to some, has done incredibly well in that deployment. In the 45 minutes that combination has played together 5v5 the RelCF% in that deployment is +7.63, the RelSCF% is +1.94, the RelHDCF% is +18.14 (!) and the RelGF% +1.81. The ZSR for the combo was 29.41.

As we can see Pionk is handling these minutes significantly worse than the other two, yet he is receiving them at twice the rate. Going by how they've played so far, Shattenkirk looks most capable of handling them.

And Staal isn't an excuse either, if you look at how they've handled the minutes with Zibanejad without Kreider as a pairing and separately Staal does a lot better away from Pionk while Pionk does a lot worse away from Staal (though the sample is small with 13-15 minutes spent away from each other).

Looking into other steady combinations you can see that DeAngelo is (by far) the best defenceman together with the Hayes-Kreider combo (a roughly 50/50 deployment combo) and that the situation that Pionk seems to do least worst in is in offensively geared deployment with the Vesey-Howden combo, likely against easier competition.

 

[Machinehead]

Shattenkirk, probably surprisingly to some, has done incredibly well in that deployment. In the 45 minutes that combination has played together 5v5 the RelCF% in that deployment is +7.63, the RelSCF% is +1.94, the RelHDCF% is +18.14 (!) and the RelGF% +1.81. The ZSR for the combo was 29.41.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

Nobody is devaluing your knowledge because you've watched a long time and played the game.

The point is that people with an intimate relationship to the game are missing things.

Somebody in this organization -somebody who's played, managed, and is paid to make decisions in this game- thinks Pionk is a top pairing defenseman. They're wrong. There's no other way to address it.

Or...

 

[Machinehead]

Or...

There is no "or"

He's absolutely drowning getting the minutes he's getting.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

There is no "or"

He's absolutely drowning getting the minutes he's getting.

Then email “GM” Jim Gorton, and get his ass an HF Boards account to read this shit before he wakes up when it’s too late.

Otherwise, you have no one to blame but yourself.

 

[Machinehead]

Then email “GM” Jim Gorton, and get his ass an HF Boards account to read this **** before he wakes up when it’s too late.

Otherwise, you have no one to blame but yourself.

You can poke fun all you want, if that's how you choose to deal with it.

Frankly, I find it alarming that fans realize this and those in charge don't.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

You can poke fun all you want, if that's how you choose to deal with it.

Frankly, I find it alarming that fans realize this and those in charge don't.

Don’t listen to these fools.

I’m blaming you for Pionk.

 

[Machinehead]

Don’t listen to these fools.

I’m blaming you for Pionk.

I'm blaming Vesey.

 

[True Blue]

You've yet to acknowledge that Pionk is -6 in even strength goals 21 games into the season. Cold hard goals. Nothing advanced about it.

The object of the game is to outscore your opponent. If a player is severely outscored, at what point in your mind does that become a problem?

+/1? Really?

Yes, the object is to out score. But there are somethings that put some players into certain positions. Who you are out there against, matters. Where you are being deployed, matters.

Frankly, I don't care. When the metrics are that bad, they tell me all I need to know.

Context matters and blindly looking at stats ignores that. The equivalent would be judging platoon baseball players solely by what the numbers show. A left handed specialist against righty pitchers can have great numbers. But to trumpet him as the end all and be all is not accurate as he cannot hit a lick against lefties which is why he is not a starter. Context.

It's the truth. You're not interested in the truth which is why you dislike statistics.

Come on. This is weak. What you are saying is that if someone does not agree with your viewpoint, they are wrong as clearly you speak the truth and they do not. Pointing out fallacies of blindly looking at stats is just that. Not a love or hate of them. There is a reason that some are extrapolated. And extrapolated numbers produce extrapolated results. Not real world. Some should also be examined with a grain of salt as there is absolutely nothing besides viewing them with blinders on. Which ignores context. No one dislikes stats, but they are far from the sole indicator of some one;s worth.

 

[Blue Blooded]

+/1? Really?

Yes, the object is to out score. But there are somethings that put some players into certain positions. Who you are out there against, matters. Where you are being deployed, matters.

Context matters and blindly looking at stats ignores that. The equivalent would be judging platoon baseball players solely by what the numbers show. A left handed specialist against righty pitchers can have great numbers. But to trumpet him as the end all and be all is not accurate as he cannot hit a lick against lefties which is why he is not a starter. Context.

You have a post where Pionk's numbers in a very specific context are presented with comparisons to our other RD's just a few posts up. I suggest you read it.

 

[McRanger]

None that are publicly available, but the numbers we have don't show Staal to be driving force here. If what you're positing was a major issue, it would reflect somewhere in the numbers.

Staal Without Pionk

55.2% CF
44% GF
67.4% High-Danger Chances


Pionk Without Staal

45.2% CF
14.2% GF (not a typo)
44.2% High-Danger Chances

I understand how much we want to make this a Marc Staal problem, but it's not a Marc Staal problem. I think we have to honest about the results Pionk is getting.

Yikes.