NCAA vs CIS Championship
- Thread starter canuck2010
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Really, you honestly believe that any college team would handily defeat U.N.B.? U.N.B. easily handled Boston College in an early exhibition game and there is absolutely no doubt they they would be very competitive against any NCAA team in a best of five or seven championship series. All the games would be close and UNB could actually come out on top.
So this year a group of players trying to make Canada's W.J.C. team played against an all star group of CIS players representing all three conferences and their top players. The Juniors were missing their top players and also did not represent the best of the CHL as the top American and Russian players were not obviously participating. So the very best of the CIS was matched up against a very good collection of CHL talent but certainly not indicative of the best the CHL could put forward. The first game ended in a 4-4 tie with the CIS winning in a shootout. The Juniors outplayed and out shot the CIS team by a fair margin but shaky goal tending from their end coupled with a superb performance from the CIS netmider squeaked out a shoot-out win for the college boys. You can watch the game for yourself here http://portal.stretchinternet.com/cis/portal.htm?eventId=257388&streamType=video
The second game the Juniors easily dispatched the college boys 5-0. The CIS team was never in the game.
To my knowledge the U-20 has never lost a game to the NCAA while the U-18 team is quite competitive, debunking the myth that college is better because the players are older...in fact this year the young U-18 team had a 7-5-2 record against D-1 competition.
Bjorn Le
Hobocop
Pointless to get into the CHL-NCAA debate. Nobody agrees, especially not on how we define the trait that are more important. People on both sides are biased, though HFBoards tends to be a pro-NCAA board for whatever reason so these threads seem to come to the conclusion that their side is right when the debate is anything but settled.
CIS-NCAA is more interesting. Pretty comparable leagues. CIS doesn't have the top end talent the NCAA does, but beyond that it's pretty similar. The CIS is full of players who if they didn't decide on the CHL track at 15 would have been challenging for D1 scholarships. Most NCAA players would not have made the CHL had they tried at 16/17, a lot of CIS players were playing CHL at that age. Take out the solid pro prospects in the NCAA and you have very similar leagues. Guys who played at the top level of junior in their country but are not quite good enough to make it to any meaningful stage.
CIS-NCAA is more interesting. Pretty comparable leagues. CIS doesn't have the top end talent the NCAA does, but beyond that it's pretty similar. The CIS is full of players who if they didn't decide on the CHL track at 15 would have been challenging for D1 scholarships. Most NCAA players would not have made the CHL had they tried at 16/17, a lot of CIS players were playing CHL at that age. Take out the solid pro prospects in the NCAA and you have very similar leagues. Guys who played at the top level of junior in their country but are not quite good enough to make it to any meaningful stage.
That is not proof of anything at all and any team that regularly plays together should have an advantage over an all-star team based on chemistry alone.
Simply because you refuse to acknowledge what is, does not change the truth.
Fact...throughout the past several seasons UNB, the current CIS champions, have been more than competitive against NCAA competition in exhibition play.
UNB the past few years:
2015-2016
UNB 5 - 2 Boston College
UNB 2 - 3 UMass Lowell
2014-2015
UNB 4 - 6 Boston College
UNB 3 - 8 Maine
2013-2014
UNB 0 - 5 Colorado College
UNB 2 - 1 Denver
The top end teams (UNB/Alberta) are likely competitive with most NCAA teams, including many of the top ranked teams. From about 1997 until today, I believe Alberta has a winning record against the NCAA (teams faced include St. Cloud, North Dakota, Alaska, Denver, Yale, Colorado College). As someone who follows the CIS, the depth however, is not there. The mid-ranked NCAA teams and low end NCAA teams are considerably better than the mid and low ranked CIS teams.
In my opinion, if you took the a top NCAA team and the top CIS school, the game could and likely would be competitive. Beyond that, the 0.500 teams in the NCAA are typically better than all the teams in the CIS outside of the top 4-5, which is why most years we see the NCAA go about 35-5 against CIS teams in October in dominant fashion.
Most CIS kids who just graduate never get a shot at the pros, and the best land AHL contracts. A good NCAA player will get an NHL contract, and even the so-so ones at least get ECHL tryouts. NCAA play is also the more popular resume in Europe. If the CIS were really comparable then pro teams would sign them and not the NCAA kids or at least sign them at a similar rate but all across the board but it's very dissimilar.
The issue here is how would a CIS championship team fare against top end NCAA competition, not how comparable the average CIS player is to his NCAA counter-part.
I think teams such as UNB and Alberta (perenial CIS power-house clubs) have established the fact that they can compete successfully against any NCAA program.
Does the CIS as a whole have the depth of talent found in the NCAA, of course not! Nobody here has ever argued such but make no mistake; a top CIS team can handle itself against any U.S. D-1 college team.
Right, right, because of the results of pre-season exhibition matches we know this...
I took two schools, UNB 2012 and UND 2011 (some from the UND 2012 class haven't graduated yet). The former was the Conference Champion in their year, the latter didn't make the playoff. Let's look at the numbers shall we?
I broke down player futures into 5 categories based on the contract they signed immediately following their final season with the team. RET (retired, beer league, local league, or extraneous European league, no player from either team signed substantial European contracts straight out of college), SPHL, ECHL, AHL, and NHL.
UNB 2012:
RET: 17
SPHL: 2
ECHL: 5
AHL: 3
NHL: 0
and UND 2011:
RET: 9
SPHL: 2
ECHL: 5
AHL: 5
NHL: 6 (Robbie Russo, Tj Tynan, Anders Lee, Stephen Johns, Riley Sheahan, Bryan Rust)
So you tell me, a perennial powerhouse against perennial mediocrity. It's good that UNB is really showing out in those friendly matches, too bad GMs are just blind and can't see that these kids are just as good as the perennial NCAA powerhouses.
Numbers for Niagara University 2011, they did not make the playoff, a decent example of perennial irrelevance.
RET: 16
SPHL: 0
ECHL: 5
AHL: 4
NHL: 0
AUT: 2 (2 players signed in the top Austrian league, very much a substantial league, another signed in Italy but I put him under RET/MISC)
Numbers for University of Alberta 2012 (conference champions!):
I tried with both the 2011 team and the 2012 team and ran into the same problem. Thus far players who were seniors this year and have not gotten contracts yet were counted as RET/MISC, and this was fine for the NCAA teams and UNB because each team only ha one or two players graduated this past spring, however I am confused how eligibility in in the CIS works because there were about 8 or 9 Alberta kids who were fifth year seniors, so it seems like 5 years is the standard in eligibility in the CIS. This really hurts the data because I would normally count them under RET/MISC but a few could sign contracts. While the UNB season ended 12 days ago, which is a long time in GM-speak, Alberta's season only ended 7 days ago, which is still substantial time however there is a chance that a few of those 26-27 year olds will sign. Here are the unadjusted numbers,
RET: 24
SPHL: 0
ECHL: 3
AHL: 0
NHL: 0
AUT: 1 (1 player signed in the top Austrian league)
Even with the large margin of error it seems UNB outperformed Alberta, and the numbers above can still be reasonably compared.
RET: 16
SPHL: 0
ECHL: 5
AHL: 4
NHL: 0
AUT: 2 (2 players signed in the top Austrian league, very much a substantial league, another signed in Italy but I put him under RET/MISC)
Numbers for University of Alberta 2012 (conference champions!):
I tried with both the 2011 team and the 2012 team and ran into the same problem. Thus far players who were seniors this year and have not gotten contracts yet were counted as RET/MISC, and this was fine for the NCAA teams and UNB because each team only ha one or two players graduated this past spring, however I am confused how eligibility in in the CIS works because there were about 8 or 9 Alberta kids who were fifth year seniors, so it seems like 5 years is the standard in eligibility in the CIS. This really hurts the data because I would normally count them under RET/MISC but a few could sign contracts. While the UNB season ended 12 days ago, which is a long time in GM-speak, Alberta's season only ended 7 days ago, which is still substantial time however there is a chance that a few of those 26-27 year olds will sign. Here are the unadjusted numbers,
RET: 24
SPHL: 0
ECHL: 3
AHL: 0
NHL: 0
AUT: 1 (1 player signed in the top Austrian league)
Even with the large margin of error it seems UNB outperformed Alberta, and the numbers above can still be reasonably compared.
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Well I give you the 2013 NCAA champions Yale Bulldogs...only one player on that team signed a NHL contract after graduating and only managed to play a grand total of 10 NHL games in the past three seasons...as for the rest of the team, 4 signed AHL contracts, 2 went to the ECHL , 1 to the SPHL and 10 retired. That sure doesn't match up to the 2013 Boston College Eagles who had 5 players jump to the NHL, 4 to the AHL, 3 to the ECHL and only having 4 retire. Yet Yale won the NCAA tournament championship while B.C. was beaten by Union college..another program who, with the exception of Shayne Gostisbehere, did not feature any future NHL studded talent.
No doubt UNB could have competed with Yale that year
Have all the players who were on the roster from that season graduated? Your numbers add up to an 18 man squad which I'm not sure was the case. You realize that even in your numbers Yale still tips an edge...and I'm not sure your numbers are dated enough for all players on the roster to have graduated.
On the subject of friendly matches, Hungary beat Sweden (C or D) 2-1 once in a friendly match. A bunch of unmotivated middle of the pack SHL players against at the time what was a team of low league pros and semipros. Friendly matches generally should be taken with a grain of salt. Not that UNB couldn't avoid being blown out every game, even looking at the friendlies from the past 3 years though they had bad losses to Colorado College, Maine, two teams with perhaps more to prove.
There are a few who have not graduated yet but those players are unlikely to play in the NHL any time soon. Yale has only a very slight edge and yet loses quite badly to a team like B.C. but they still remain the 13 champions.
Exhibition games are all we have, many of you are quick to point out the NCAA superior record against the CIS, should we then discount them because they are friendly matches. Perhaps we should give the CIS more credit because they are always playing on the road....
Lol, at least don't admit statistical malpractice and collector's bias. Yes, perhaps none of those players will be signed by a NHL team, but there's a chance they'll be signed by an AHL team or an ECHL team and that would significantly affect the stats. 18 players have a slight edge over the resume of 27 players...not a good sign.
I think I see a bit of a trend. UNB is more competitive against blue blood teams who probably see them as just a CIS team. On the flip side UNB players probably see it as a chance to prove themselves or make a statement. Meanwhile they struggle against smaller teams because they probably underestimate these teams and these teams would see those exhibition games as a chance to prove themselves against a CIS powerhouse.
My point with the contracts however isn't to compare X team to Y team. My point is that perennially irrelevant NCAA teams are signing as many and more players as powerhouse CIS teams and at higher levels of play. This indicates that professional GMs and scouts, hockey experts at all levels in general feel the NCAA is far and away higher quality.
SanDogBrewin
Righteous bucks!
bert
Registered User
- Nov 11, 2002
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Wrong, CIS teams would absolutely destroy d3. The quebec teams are also some of the best CIS teams out there.... This isnt a hard thing to find either so you probably should show some proof. CIS is much closer to D1 than D3.
The division one champion would certainly be better than the CIS champion but I think it would still be an interesting series to watch.
Never argued that scouts and GMs do not feel that the NCAA contains more talented and quality players than the CIS, only that the top end CIS teams can be competitive against any NCAA team.
This is not about the general state of the CIS compared to the NCAA. I am well aware that a 1/3rd of all NHL players hail from the NCAA and the NCAA is only second to the CHL on that front and leagues a head of the CIS.
I used Yale because that team is very comparable to a top end CIS team; not having a boat load of future high end pro talent yet still able to compete and win a NCAA title.
Both of these are completely superstition and opinion based statements. Please offer some statistical backing or something to give what you say any sort of credibility. All the data I've given has addressed the first point, and it isn't his burden of proof since he lived it and he gave score ranges, you have to go back and find CIS/D3 scores to show how his assertion is preposterous, as opposed to merely drawing on stereotypes and your own opinions.
At least pretend you drew Yale out of a hat as opposed to repeatedly admitting collector's bias. Also, you only took stats for 18 out of the 27 players from that Yale class, so you didn't even take the full sample. Doing that is akin to me selecting the 17 RET players from UNB and 1 SPHL player and writing "UNB only had one graduate sign a contract and it was an SPHL contract." If we extrapolated (bad practice but there's no other way to rectify) the Yale stats then we would get 15 RET, 2 SPHL, 3 ECHL, 6 AHL, and 1 NHL and that is still better than the UNB numbers not only in high end talent or contract level but contracts signed. I got the Alberta 2010 numbers to avoid 5th year senior issues and they are as follows: 18 RET, 4 ECHL, 1 AHL, 2 AUT (Austria). Niagara signed at a 13.3% higher rate than Alberta, UND signed at a 30.7% higher rate than UNB. This doesn't just demonstrate that the NCAA dominates "high end pro talent", a Peter Schneider (16P,41G) is preferred by ECHL GMs over a Sean Ringrose (43P,31G). Not only because they sign at higher levels, but also because they sign at higher rates, with lower performing or contributor level NCAA players signing where CIS powerhouse stars are unable to, it seems that professional hockey experts, GMs and scouts, prefer a good or even a contributor level NCAA hockey player on a mediocre or a irrelevant team over a CIS powerhouse star and for this reason I don't see a battle between powerhouses being close.
Just because numbers shouldn't go to waste. 2011 UConn, a perennially mediocre team or even irrelevant, a losing season, etc.
RET: 16
SPHL: 5
ECHL: 5
AHL: 1
NHL: 1
A signing rate of 42.85%, 5.8% above UNB 2011 and 22.85% above University of Alberta 2010 (above), a minor league heavy class.
I'd like to see this theoretical game happen. In the Austrian league we've had a couple great CIS players run through who went completely ignored by north American hockey experts (Derek Ryan, Steven Strong), however, if expert opinion is a factor I don't see the game being too close.
RET: 16
SPHL: 5
ECHL: 5
AHL: 1
NHL: 1
A signing rate of 42.85%, 5.8% above UNB 2011 and 22.85% above University of Alberta 2010 (above), a minor league heavy class.
I'd like to see this theoretical game happen. In the Austrian league we've had a couple great CIS players run through who went completely ignored by north American hockey experts (Derek Ryan, Steven Strong), however, if expert opinion is a factor I don't see the game being too close.
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Yale's 2013 class as listed by H.D.B. contains only 25 players, 7 of which were still playing in the 15-16 season. Yes some of them may yet sign ECHL contracts but that remains to be seen. There was no collector's bias here as you repeatedly miss the point of this exercise. You feel that because a team may have a large gap in professional signings over another, that team should handily win a match between the two. If this assumption was to be correct then please explain how a team such as Yale, with a significantly lower singing rate than say a Boston College could win the national title.
Now we are in agreement that the league a player signs in is even more important than than the mere number of "professional contracts as the NHL is far above the ECHL or the various European leagues. So in that case a team like Yale should not even be competing against many top NCAA programs, let alone out-right winning.
canuck2010
Registered User
- Dec 21, 2010
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- 849
Out of that number only two signings mean anything at all. CIS teams do have a high content of players that have played junior and have already been scouted. It doesn't mean they are bad hockey players it means that they just aren't NHL players.
