OT: Nats, Wiz, O's, Ravens, Terps, Navy, Gtown, Mystics, Golf, Summer 2024 (Paris Olympics 2024 as well)

[sycamore]

Am worried about the Gizzards draft picks. Dumping Avidja for Carrington ….. aye Carumba

We shall see. I’m NO WHERE near as hopeful for the Gizz as I am for the Skins, O’s, and Caps.

The Gizz….. sigh. Shrug.

You're hopefully for the Caps now? The Caps are all about chasing OV's record, then breaking this team up into smithereens and starting from scratch. Meanwhile other teams in their division (like the Flyers) are starting their ascent. Unless they get stone cold lucky in the draft, Caps could be wandering into the wilderness for some time.

 

[John Price]

Carrington is supposed to be good, we'll see

 

[usiel]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5827570/2024/10/10/2025-nba-mock-draft-cooper-flagg-duke-rutgers-uconn/

 

[Ridley Simon]

You're hopefully for the Caps now? The Caps are all about chasing OV's record, then breaking this team up into smithereens and starting from scratch. Meanwhile other teams in their division (like the Flyers) are starting their ascent. Unless they get stone cold lucky in the draft, Caps could be wandering into the wilderness for some time.

I don’t think so. I believe in GMBM (ok, he’s Pres
Now, or whatever, but he’s still in charge), and what he can do.

Caps have as much prospect talent as the Flyers, IMO. Save maybe G.

I’m very bullish on the Caps.

 

[usiel]

Wrong thread?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ted might be one of the worst owners. Outside of winning the Ovie lottery hes been pretty bad on everything. Check Wizards.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ted might be one of the worst owners. Outside of winning the Ovie lottery hes been pretty bad on everything. Check Wizards.

Yeah out of 2 franchises, he’s only been able to win a title with one…..he’s the worst…./eyeroll….

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Yeah out of 2 franchises, he’s only been able to win a title with one…..he’s the worst…./eyeroll….

His NBA record with him making his in charge for years and trying to move the teams to VA without telling anyone.

 

[HTFN]

You're hopefully for the Caps now? The Caps are all about chasing OV's record, then breaking this team up into smithereens and starting from scratch. Meanwhile other teams in their division (like the Flyers) are starting their ascent. Unless they get stone cold lucky in the draft, Caps could be wandering into the wilderness for some time.

the Flyers have started like three separate ascents in the last 10 years, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Kalopsia]

His NBA record with him making his in charge for years and trying to move the teams to VA without telling anyone.

His flaw is that he's too patient with his hires and waits too long to make course corrections. As far as flaws for owners go, it's one of the better ones. Owners that are too impatient turn their franchises into clown shows.

Moving the teams to VA was a negotiating tactic, I'll never buy that he actually thought that'd go through. Annoying, but par for the course for owners. At least he was only threatening to move within the metro area and not to another city entirely.

Beyond those two things, he spends to the salary cap routinely, invests in team facilities and operations, and is willing to take a financial hit to go through full rebuilds. He seems to legitimately care about his teams as more than just a business, and he doesn't have any personal scandals.

The guy's not perfect but we could do a hell of a lot worse.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

His flaw is that he's too patient with his hires and waits too long to make course corrections. As far as flaws for owners go, it's one of the better ones. Owners that are too impatient turn their franchises into clown shows.

Moving the teams to VA was a negotiating tactic, I'll never buy that he actually thought that'd go through. Annoying, but par for the course for owners. At least he was only threatening to move within the metro area and not to another city entirely.

Beyond those two things, he spends to the salary cap routinely, invests in team facilities and operations, and is willing to take a financial hit to go through full rebuilds. He seems to legitimately care about his teams as more than just a business, and he doesn't have any personal scandals.

The guy's not perfect but we could do a hell of a lot worse.

This.

 

[Cush]

Kuz airballs a free throw. Three airballs so far, not sure how he's the leading scorer

Not even looking to pass the ball

 

[usiel]

I'm only through the 3rd quarter but George>Bilal.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Ted might be one of the worst owners. Outside of winning the Ovie lottery hes been pretty bad on everything. Check Wizards.

Oh come on. He’s negligent in that he hires some of the wrong people, and then leaves them in their jobs too long.

That’s ALL.

Seriously?

He spends to the ceiling, regularly, he doesn’t interfere with how the GM manages the teams (not anymore), he cares about the fan experience, and he supports his players.

He’s a great owner. He’s just hired and held on to some poor team executives.

Edit — I see @Kalopsia beat me to it. Well said, sir.

 

[sycamore]

I'm liking what I see of Bub, a lot. Kid punches above his weight.

 

[TRASHCAT]

theres 30ish teams in the leagues so i would say every 30 years you should win a championship. ted has owned 2 teams for nearly 30 years and id say going 1 championship over a combined 60 years with the wiz/caps is pretty meh. There are many owners that are worse and i like him as a person but hes been at best mediocre to bad

took the nats only 15 years to win a championship for example. ravens won 2 since 96 etc.

 

[g00n]

theres 30ish teams in the leagues so i would say every 30 years you should win a championship. ted has owned 2 teams for nearly 30 years and id say going 1 championship over a combined 60 years with the wiz/caps is pretty meh. There are many owners that are worse and i like him as a person but hes been at best mediocre to bad

took the nats only 15 years to win a championship for example. ravens won 2 since 96 etc.

Except it's not a random statistic where you draw a name out of a hat 30(sic) times.

There are 32 teams. The number of teams affects the odds for sure but not all teams are going to be equal for many, many reasons.

Coaches
Trainers & Med staff
Drafting
Draft lottery luck
Injuries
Number of players starting
Number of players on roster
Farm system
Local support
Revenue sharing
Salary cap
Owner/Executive direction
Facilities
Playoff seeing/matchups
Better teams in division
etc

All of these things skew the odds.

Because of this, paradoxically, winning once for many teams is going to be harder than 1/30 odds while winning many times for other teams is going to be easier.

It was worse before the salary cap and is closer to parity than the dynasty eras, but you still have the odds being tilted in the favor of a few select teams for shorter periods of time.

The Cap in the NHL was implemented 19 seasons ago. The Caps have won 1 Cup in that span. The Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings and Lightning have won multiple cups during that period (3,3,2,2 respectively). The rest have not repeated, including the Caps.

The ratio of # of teams winning cups to years (19) for that period was 13/19 (68%).
The ratio for the 19 seasons prior was 10/19 (53%).

So more teams are winning in the cap era, but not a whole lot more.

It's also worth considering that at the beginning of the previous 19 years (1986) there were only 21 teams in the league. By the time the cap was implemented there were 30. Now there are 32.

Which means in the cap era, Ted and every other owner has benefited from revenue sharing and "parity" but also about a 50% expansion compared to the 1980s dynasty period. You would expect that ratio of teams/cups above to increase a little bit, and it has done so almost proportionately to the increase in total teams in the league, but it's still not a blind draw.

Still, since Ted won the Cup in 2018 that means he took 13 seasons from the rebuild and start of the salary cap. It's been 6 seasons since. If it really is 1/32 odds then we should win again in 13 years!

Plan the parade!

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ted has been bottom 3 owner in the NBA if not the worst. Not much makes me think it would be much different for his NHL team without GMGM and winning the Ovie lottery.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Kinda psyched for Lane Thomas. He gets to Cleveland and is just woeful for the first 6 weeks, and now he’s hit 2 game winning homers to get his team to the ALCS

 

[Kazer]

Ted has been bottom 3 owner in the NBA if not the worst. Not much makes me think it would be much different for his NHL team without GMGM and winning the Ovie lottery.

Having a few friends who are big Wizards fans, I find that one's opinion of Ted largely depends on how much you care about the Caps vs Wizards.

If you're a huge Wizards fan, you probably think Ted is awful. If you're a huge Caps fan, you probably think Ted is a good-to-great owner. If you're fans of both, you're likely somewhere in the middle, weighted on which team you follow more closely.

I'm a Caps fan, so I generally think Ted is a good owner. But his record with the Wizards since taking over is one of the worst in the NBA, and they just started a 3-5 year rebuild process.

 

[Cush]

Sarr (sore calf) and Coulibaly not playing tonight (finger sprain)

 

[notDkristich]

theres 30ish teams in the leagues so i would say every 30 years you should win a championship. ted has owned 2 teams for nearly 30 years and id say going 1 championship over a combined 60 years with the wiz/caps is pretty meh. There are many owners that are worse and i like him as a person but hes been at best mediocre to bad

took the nats only 15 years to win a championship for example. ravens won 2 since 96 etc.

if the odds of winning a championship were really once every 30 years, are 1 out of 30 teams per year, then that really means you have a 50% chance of winning 1 out of 45 years. can a math expert verify my binomial math? been a while since prob/stat

if only i could apply this math faster when i play texas hold 'em

 

[Kalopsia]

if the odds of winning a championship were really once every 30 years, are 1 out of 30 teams per year, then that really means you have a 50% chance of winning 1 out of 45 years. can a math expert verify my binomial math? been a while since prob/stat

if only i could apply this math faster when i play texas hold 'em

I can help here! Your chance of winning at least one championship in 45 years (which we'll call P(>1)) is the same as one minus the chance of not winning a championship in 45 years (P(0)), because those are the only possible outcomes - win at least one, or win none. We can calculate P(0) pretty easily, it's just the chance of losing (29/30) to the power of however many years we pick (in this case 45).

P(>1) = 1-P(0) = 1-(29/30)^45 = 1-0.22 = 0.78 --> 78% chance of winning at least one Cup in 45 years if every team has the same chance each year

To figure out how many years you have to play to have a 50% of winning a Cup, we set P(>1) = 0.5

0.5 = 1-(29/30)^X

(29/30)^X = 0.5

We can rewrite this as

X = log base (29/30) of 0.5 = 20.4 years

So if every team has even odds of winning a Cup each year, a team has to play 21 seasons before their chance of winning at least one Cup is greater than 50%.