theres 30ish teams in the leagues so i would say every 30 years you should win a championship. ted has owned 2 teams for nearly 30 years and id say going 1 championship over a combined 60 years with the wiz/caps is pretty meh. There are many owners that are worse and i like him as a person but hes been at best mediocre to bad
took the nats only 15 years to win a championship for example. ravens won 2 since 96 etc.
Except it's not a random statistic where you draw a name out of a hat 30(sic) times.
There are 32 teams. The number of teams affects the odds for sure but not all teams are going to be equal for many, many reasons.
Coaches
Trainers & Med staff
Drafting
Draft lottery luck
Injuries
Number of players starting
Number of players on roster
Farm system
Local support
Revenue sharing
Salary cap
Owner/Executive direction
Facilities
Playoff seeing/matchups
Better teams in division
etc
All of these things skew the odds.
Because of this, paradoxically, winning once for many teams is going to be harder than 1/30 odds while winning many times for other teams is going to be easier.
It was worse before the salary cap and is closer to parity than the dynasty eras, but you still have the odds being tilted in the favor of a few select teams for shorter periods of time.
The Cap in the NHL was implemented 19 seasons ago. The Caps have won 1 Cup in that span. The Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings and Lightning have won multiple cups during that period (3,3,2,2 respectively). The rest have not repeated, including the Caps.
The ratio of # of teams winning cups to years (19) for that period was 13/19 (68%).
The ratio for the 19 seasons prior was 10/19 (53%).
So more teams are winning in the cap era, but not a whole lot more.
It's also worth considering that at the beginning of the previous 19 years (1986) there were only 21 teams in the league. By the time the cap was implemented there were 30. Now there are 32.
Which means in the cap era, Ted and every other owner has benefited from revenue sharing and "parity" but also about a 50% expansion compared to the 1980s dynasty period. You would expect that ratio of teams/cups above to increase a little bit, and it has done so almost proportionately to the increase in total teams in the league, but it's still not a blind draw.
Still, since Ted won the Cup in 2018 that means he took 13 seasons from the rebuild and start of the salary cap. It's been 6 seasons since. If it really is 1/32 odds then we should win again in 13 years!
Plan the parade!
