Nathan MacKinnon, on par with the best in business?

[FlyingPhi]

You brought it up.

Cap space is a huge factor in the 21-22 Avs team. You dont just insert a $12.5M McDavid magically on that Avs team without removing the difference in cap space. Any hockey fan with a mathematical brain not playing in Vegas rules would know and consider that. So yes, insert McDavid's x points on that team, but remove Kadri's and Lehkonen and Helm's contributions and boom, they maybe dont win it then. So +McDavid, -MacKinnon, -Lehkonen, -Kadri, and -Helm.

In terms of contracts, The Avalanche were lucky/fortunate/strategic enough to have Duchene making $6.5M I believe when MacKinnon's RFA contract came up and they locked him up long term for $6.3M and he immediately blew up making that the best deal in hockey. Not that McDavid didnt deserve it, but the Oilers gave him $11M off of his RFA deal and he took them behind the woodshed only signing for 3 years before his next 8 year big payday. You can give McDavid credit for playing amazing right out the gate in the NHL, but then at the same time, argue that the bad Avs teams in a round about way built that Stanley Cup winning team.

Either way, MacKinnon has a Cup and McDavid doesnt.You're being a bit disingenuous, or at least cherry picking, by using certain players cumulative AAV to validate your argument...

Why use Lehkonen, Kadri, and Helm's contracts to make up the AAV difference between MacKinnon and McDavid?

If your're gonna cherry pick, then how about MacKinnon and Erik Johnson at 12.3 vs McDavid and Bouchard at 13.36? I mean, Bouchard had a 65% higher ppg in the regular season and more than double Johnsons playoff production... Jeez, MacKinnon didn't even get a single game winning goal over his 20 playoff games that year...

I'm not arguing their impact or AAV-relative value from 3 seasons ago, or that playoff year, that's just fraught with hindsight issues, but I do take issue with the cumulative AAV vs value argument that you're presenting. Your argument is just not that honest or strong.

"Either way, MacKinnon has a Cup and McDavid doesnt" may be a reductionist argument, but at least it's honest.

Claiming to be confident of the outcome of hypothetical pasts is so lame, no matter what side one argues.

 

[The Merchant]

The unintentional jinx thread remains undefeated

 

[Spilot23]

We now need a thread asking if Mackinnon is already regressing to restore order !

 

[AslanRH]

McDavid never threw a helmet at a smurf though

 

[Video Nasty]

Last 7 games:

MacKinnon 0 goals and 6 assists for 6 points
McDavid 7 goals and 8 assists for 15 points

 

[benfranklin]

Last 7 games:

MacKinnon 0 goals and 6 assists for 6 points
McDavid 7 goals and 8 assists for 15 points

Why stop at 7? Lets go 8:

MacKinnon 1 goals and 9 assists for 10 points
McDavid 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points

Hell 9:

MacKinnon 1 goals and 9 assists for 10 points
McDavid 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points

Make it 10:

MacKinnon 1 goals and 14 assists for 15 points
McDavid 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points

 

[Mr Kot]

Last 7 games:

MacKinnon 0 goals and 6 assists for 6 points
McDavid 7 goals and 8 assists for 15 points

The jynx thread remains undefeated

 

[benfranklin]

The jynx thread remains undefeated

Im making one on Toews

 

[Video Nasty]

Why stop at 7? Lets go 8:

MacKinnon 1 goals and 9 assists for 10 points
McDavid 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points

Hell 9:

MacKinnon 1 goals and 9 assists for 10 points
McDavid 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points

Make it 10:

MacKinnon 1 goals and 14 assists for 15 points
McDavid 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points

Because I wanted to highlight the 7 game goal drought MacKinnon is currently on.

 

[Duke74]

I think the Oilers default to McDavid too much rather than playing team hockey.

I do think this is a major problem. It explains why, when McDavid is out of the lineup, some of the other players seem to step up their efforts and play a more team-oriented game.

 

[WalterLundy]

Since 2017-18 there has been a clear cut top 4 point producers on a per game and totals basis. This is a good cutoff because it was the first year scoring went up to around 3 goals per game (where it has remained) and it also eliminates the weakest years for all four guys. McDavid doesn’t suffer from his pre 2018 stats being added as the others as he still averaged 96 per 82 GP pre 2018. Compare that to the other three (Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl) and they averaged 67, 56 and 59 respectively. It also gets rid of any of the DPE 2.0 nonsense and it’s what most would define as the new era of hockey. It also provides us with a big sample size where everyone has already broken out in the same environment.

Since 2017-18: (ranked by points)

McDavid:
537 GP: 300 G, 562 A, 862 P (1.61)

Draisaitl:
550 GP: 313 G, 430 A, 743 P (1.35)

MacKinnon:
513 GP: 267 G, 461 A, 728 P (1.42)

Kucherov:
460 GP: 224 G, 447 A, 671 P (1.46)

There is a pretty clear gap from them and the rest of the field during this timeframe as they are the cream of the crop in the NHL. By this standard (which I feel is appropriate) he IS on par with “the best in the business”. No question actually. If we are using McDavid however as that said best in the business then I would say no and that he is more comparable to Draisaitl than he is to McDavid.

The reason for this beyond just the clear statistical evidence/dominance over the period is peak seasons and overall resumes. McDavid has two seasons (2021, 2023) that are the clear cut best of the 21st century with a third best (2024) being statistically on par with the best Kucherov and MacKinnon were able to produce. That is quite a statement too because MacKinnon and Kucherov’s seasons that year were better than anything we have seen since 1999 Jagr.

For career resume the gap widens even more as he bests the next best three players’ combined resumes. (Personal awards)

McDavid resume:
3 Hart
5 Art Ross
4 Ted Lindsay
1 Rocket Richard
1 Conn Smythe
5 first team all star selections

The combined resumes of Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl:
3 Hart
3 Art Ross
3 Ted Lindsay
5 first team all star selections

All this to say yes and no depending on how the question is asked. He is among the very best in the league but not on par with McDavid. He’s a different tier with only Gretzky and Lemieux as the better forwards on an individual basis post expansion.

 

[Brookbank]

No. Why do we need a new hype thread for this guy every week. Lately hes on par with McDavid's team success though

 

[Video Nasty]

Since 2017-18 there has been a clear cut top 4 point producers on a per game and totals basis. This is a good cutoff because it was the first year scoring went up to around 3 goals per game (where it has remained) and it also eliminates the weakest years for all four guys. McDavid doesn’t suffer from his pre 2018 stats being added as the others as he still averaged 96 per 82 GP pre 2018. Compare that to the other three (Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl) and they averaged 67, 56 and 59 respectively. It also gets rid of any of the DPE 2.0 nonsense and it’s what most would define as the new era of hockey. It also provides us with a big sample size where everyone has already broken out in the same environment.

Since 2017-18: (ranked by points)

McDavid:
537 GP: 300 G, 562 A, 862 P (1.61)

Draisaitl:
550 GP: 313 G, 430 A, 743 P (1.35)

MacKinnon:
513 GP: 267 G, 461 A, 728 P (1.42)

Kucherov:
460 GP: 224 G, 447 A, 671 P (1.46)

There is a pretty clear gap from them and the rest of the field during this timeframe as they are the cream of the crop in the NHL. By this standard (which I feel is appropriate) he IS on par with “the best in the business”. No question actually. If we are using McDavid however as that said best in the business then I would say no and that he is more comparable to Draisaitl than he is to McDavid.

The reason for this beyond just the clear statistical evidence/dominance over the period is peak seasons and overall resumes. McDavid has two seasons (2021, 2023) that are the clear cut best of the 21st century with a third best (2024) being statistically on par with the best Kucherov and MacKinnon were able to produce. That is quite a statement too because MacKinnon and Kucherov’s seasons that year were better than anything we have seen since 1999 Jagr.

For career resume the gap widens even more as he bests the next best three players’ combined resumes. (Personal awards)

McDavid resume:
3 Hart
5 Art Ross
4 Ted Lindsay
1 Rocket Richard
1 Conn Smythe
5 first team all star selections

The combined resumes of Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl:
3 Hart
3 Art Ross
3 Ted Lindsay
5 first team all star selections

All this to say yes and no depending on how the question is asked. He is among the very best in the league but not on par with McDavid. He’s a different tier with only Gretzky and Lemieux as the better forwards on an individual basis post expansion.

What’s also bonkers is that McDavid even has as many top 5 Hart finishes as the three combined (8 vs 8) and they all stepped into the league 1-2 seasons before he did.

 

[authentic]

Since 2017-18 there has been a clear cut top 4 point producers on a per game and totals basis. This is a good cutoff because it was the first year scoring went up to around 3 goals per game (where it has remained) and it also eliminates the weakest years for all four guys. McDavid doesn’t suffer from his pre 2018 stats being added as the others as he still averaged 96 per 82 GP pre 2018. Compare that to the other three (Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl) and they averaged 67, 56 and 59 respectively. It also gets rid of any of the DPE 2.0 nonsense and it’s what most would define as the new era of hockey. It also provides us with a big sample size where everyone has already broken out in the same environment.

Since 2017-18: (ranked by points)

McDavid:
537 GP: 300 G, 562 A, 862 P (1.61)

Draisaitl:
550 GP: 313 G, 430 A, 743 P (1.35)

MacKinnon:
513 GP: 267 G, 461 A, 728 P (1.42)

Kucherov:
460 GP: 224 G, 447 A, 671 P (1.46)

There is a pretty clear gap from them and the rest of the field during this timeframe as they are the cream of the crop in the NHL. By this standard (which I feel is appropriate) he IS on par with “the best in the business”. No question actually. If we are using McDavid however as that said best in the business then I would say no and that he is more comparable to Draisaitl than he is to McDavid.

The reason for this beyond just the clear statistical evidence/dominance over the period is peak seasons and overall resumes. McDavid has two seasons (2021, 2023) that are the clear cut best of the 21st century with a third best (2024) being statistically on par with the best Kucherov and MacKinnon were able to produce. That is quite a statement too because MacKinnon and Kucherov’s seasons that year were better than anything we have seen since 1999 Jagr.

For career resume the gap widens even more as he bests the next best three players’ combined resumes. (Personal awards)

McDavid resume:
3 Hart
5 Art Ross
4 Ted Lindsay
1 Rocket Richard
1 Conn Smythe
5 first team all star selections

The combined resumes of Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl:
3 Hart
3 Art Ross
3 Ted Lindsay
5 first team all star selections

All this to say yes and no depending on how the question is asked. He is among the very best in the league but not on par with McDavid. He’s a different tier with only Gretzky and Lemieux as the better forwards on an individual basis post expansion.

Has his separation from the pack really placed him on a tier with Gretzky and Lemieux though? His separation over a 7-8 year period more resembles that of Crosby and Jagr.

 

[WalterLundy]

Has his separation from the pack really placed him on a tier with Gretzky and Lemieux though? His separation over a 7-8 year period more resembles that of Crosby and Jagr.

No he is a tier below Gretzky and Lemieux. I didn’t mean that he is in the same tier with those guys but above every other forward that we have seen since expansion. The fact that he has a clear level of separation from Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl says a ton because that is really steep competition for point production but that’s not the reason I’d even put him in a tier above anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux post 1967 (for forwards). It’s because of how dominant his two peak seasons were (2021 and 2023). These two seasons are the best non Gretzky/Lemieux era adjusted seasons and have the biggest gap over peers outside of Gretzky and Lemieux post expansion. More importantly his resume at only still age 27 is better than anyone other than Gretzky given the parameters.

Gretzky at 27 (first 9 seasons)
8 Hart
7 Art Ross
5 Ted Lindsay
7 first team all star selections
2 Conn Smythe
696 GP: 1337 adjusted points (158/82 GP)

Lemieux at 27 (first 9 seasons)
2 Hart
4 Art Ross
3 Ted Lindsay
3 first team all star selections
2 Conn Smythe
577 GP: 974 adjusted points (138/82 GP)

Lemieux full career
3 Hart
6 Art Ross
4 Ted Lindsay
5 first team all star selections
2 Conn Smythe
915 GP: 1540 adjusted points (138/82 GP)

McDavid at 27 (first 9 seasons)
3 Hart
5 Art Ross
4 Ted Lindsay
5 first team all star selections
1 Conn Smythe
645 GP: 1055 adjusted points (134/82 GP)

McDavid’s overall resume is nearly matching Lemieux’s career already and is ahead of where he was on an individual basis at the same career stage. The only post expansion forward who exceeds at the same stage is Gretzky (and by a lot at that). To me he has to be the tier below Gretzky (and Mario for peak) but clearly above everyone else.

 

[Regal]

What’s also bonkers is that McDavid even has as many top 5 Hart finishes as the three combined (8 vs 8) and they all stepped into the league 1-2 seasons before he did.

Granted Draisaitl would have at least 2 more top 5 finishes (‘21 and ‘23) if he wasn’t on the same team as McDavid, though McDavid would have another Hart if missing the playoffs wasn’t as big of a factor.

 

[authentic]

No he is a tier below Gretzky and Lemieux. I didn’t mean that he is in the same tier with those guys but above every other forward that we have seen since expansion. The fact that he has a clear level of separation from Kucherov, MacKinnon and Draisaitl says a ton because that is really steep competition for point production but that’s not the reason I’d even put him in a tier above anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux post 1967 (for forwards). It’s because of how dominant his two peak seasons were (2021 and 2023). These two seasons are the best non Gretzky/Lemieux era adjusted seasons and have the biggest gap over peers outside of Gretzky and Lemieux post expansion. More importantly his resume at only still age 27 is better than anyone other than Gretzky given the parameters.

Gretzky at 27 (first 9 seasons)
8 Hart
7 Art Ross
5 Ted Lindsay
7 first team all star selections
2 Conn Smythe
696 GP: 1337 adjusted points (158/82 GP)

Lemieux at 27 (first 9 seasons)
2 Hart
4 Art Ross
3 Ted Lindsay
3 first team all star selections
2 Conn Smythe
577 GP: 974 adjusted points (138/82 GP)

Lemieux full career
3 Hart
6 Art Ross
4 Ted Lindsay
5 first team all star selections
2 Conn Smythe
915 GP: 1540 adjusted points (138/82 GP)

McDavid at 27 (first 9 seasons)
3 Hart
5 Art Ross
4 Ted Lindsay
5 first team all star selections
1 Conn Smythe
645 GP: 1055 adjusted points (134/82 GP)

McDavid’s overall resume is nearly matching Lemieux’s career already and is ahead of where he was on an individual basis at the same career stage. The only post expansion forward who exceeds at the same stage is Gretzky (and by a lot at that). To me he has to be the tier below Gretzky (and Mario for peak) but clearly above everyone else.

Oh I read that wrong my bad, yeah you add his two playoff runs in 2022 and 2024 and he’s the best player other than Gretzky, Lemieux and Orr to ever lace them up.

 

[WalterLundy]

Oh I read that wrong my bad, yeah you add his two playoff runs in 2022 and 2024 and he’s the best player other than Gretzky, Lemieux and Orr to ever pace them up.

I could have worded it better but yeah agreed. Obviously me saying for forwards was clearly a sign that Orr would be above him as well. Barring anything catastrophic I think most people will have him 4th all time if he wins even just one Stanley cup.