Nashville Predators talk - The Offseason

[glenngineer]

Cooking to perfection versus overcooking.

I could be very wrong in this line of thinking but there should be two paths for youngsters.

Go to the minors, light it up, come up to the big club and continue to do and make yourself a valuable NHL player.

Go to the minors, light it up, get called up, you do well but struggle to some degree, club sends you back down to round out whatever wasn't working, get called up at a later time and then stick with the big club.

If a player is continually up and down, they're probably not going to make it. You either have what it takes or you don't.

There was talk of bringing up Kemell and ZLH at some point but because we didn't sustain any major injuries up front, they never got the call. To me, if these guys were better players than what we had on the roster, they should've been called up. At the same time, I can see why the club stuck with guys who had earned their spots. Problem is, just because you earn a spot at one point, doesn't mean you can't be overtaken by someone else along the way.

One exception to my thoughts from above about overcooking, power forward types seem to take longer to cook for whatever reason. Not sure Afanasyev fits into that category as I haven't watched him enough.

 

[Scoresberg]

Obviously, we need to find the blueprint to success with this team. Are we trying to win in the Josi Era or are we building beyond that?

I think there's still some tread on O'Reilly's, Nyquist's and McDonagh's tires just not at the top of the lineup -level. But I don't think we can find anything better for the upcoming season.

I think next year needs to start being a transition year to the future. We need to see what guys like Pärssinen truly have or don't have and start building their NHL careers. The beauvilliers or the sherwoods are not answer.

Inject some youth into the lineup and key positions. We still have the veterans here to look after them and teach them as you go.

That's all I have for now. And oh, re-sign Zucker!

 

[Predsanddead24]

He didn’t look so ready when he was up

In what way? It’s been a while but I thought he was largely unnoticeable which isn’t great but given the rest of teams performance in his two games was decent enough. He certainly wasn’t any worse than Jankowski was right after the call up but Jankowski got the chance to get settled in and eventually started playing well. He was better than Beauvilliers first few games here and he got to stay in the lineup. He was as good as Foudy who got a twelve game look.

 

[Scoresberg]

Yeah, I think the main reason guys like Afanasyev, Pärssinen and Tomasino got the short-end of the stick this year was their waiver eligibility. Which shouldn't EVER be the reason you don't play a player in a meritocracy-based system.

 

[triggrman]

In what way? It’s been a while but I thought he was largely unnoticeable which isn’t great but given the rest of teams performance in his two games was decent enough. He certainly wasn’t any worse than Jankowski was right after the call up but Jankowski got the chance to get settled in and eventually started playing well. He was better than Beauvilliers first few games here and he got to stay in the lineup. He was as good as Foudy who got a twelve game look.

I’ll agree that Foudy and somewhat Beauvlliers . Not on Jankowski. He was brought up to be a 2 way center with size. He was. That was likely the last chance for the other 2 on this roster.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I’ll agree that Foudy and somewhat Beauvlliers . Not on Jankowski. He was brought up to be a 2 way center with size. He was. That was likely the last chance for the other 2 on this roster.

Jankowski mostly played wing with Novak/Evangelista not in a 2 way center role. But my main point on Jankowski/Afanasyev is if we’re going to judge based on the two game sample size Afansyev got that Afanasyev was equivalent or better than Jankowski. Jankowski got the nod to stay in the lineup and after a few weeks got going. Afanasyev never got another look this season. Who knows if Afanasyev would have performed the same way as Jankowski if he got that opportunity instead, but he didn’t get the chance and I think that’s emblematic of how we as a team err on the side of veteran players.

Beauvllier cost us a game with a horrible pass to the other team in his second game and he stayed in the lineup. Any young kid does that and he’s at a minimum press boxed if not sent down. And to some extent I understand that if you’re going to trade for someone you give them time to acclimate but I think that same logic should be extended to our prospects.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Yeah, I think the main reason guys like Afanasyev, Pärssinen and Tomasino got the short-end of the stick this year was their waiver eligibility. Which shouldn't EVER be the reason you don't play a player in a meritocracy-based system.

In a meritocracy that has roster limits and waiver rules, it has to be. Otherwise you're going to be losing players left and right.

 

[101st_fan]

Well when you overcook guys and are unwilling to put too many young guys on the roster you sort of create a self fulfilling prophesy. Since Afanasyev didn't get any time this year despite being ready now he still has very limited NHL experience and if having him as the unexperienced guy in the lineup limits your willingness to put L'Hereux in now he has to wait another year overcooking.

We started the season with Tomasino in the top six and PP2, Pärssinen, Fagemo, Foudy, Evangalista all on the roster. One stayed up. Tomasino took until game four to register a shot ... hovered invisibly on the perimeter ... and slid down the depth chart from not playing within Bruno's system. Pärssinen to wing just didn't mesh and the top three center spots were filled by RoR, Novak, Sissons. Foudy and Fagemo remained interchangeable with Tomasino. Luke kept his spot.

Of the players that went to the AHL only Fagemo dominated at that level ... just not for us. For all of the talk of overcooking, which of the players in question is making a strong case for NHL time based on their AHL performance? Afanasyev comes closest but is outside the top 30 in points, outside the top 45 in points per game across the AHL.

Exactly what is overcooked? Tomasino is mid pack in NHL games played for first rounders in his draft class. 2020 we picked a goalie in the first round ... our second rounder has the second highest NHL game total for those selected in his round. 2021 first rounder is finishing his first season in North America.

Another thread mentions how Dallas handles players. Johnston stepped in and put up 24 goals his first season, 34 this season .... the closest we've come to that is Radulov. Stankoven spent two full seasons in Kamloops after his draft, put up more points in 47 AHL games than anyone on the Ads did for the full season, then got the call putting up 14 points in 24 games. Bourque led the AHL in points in his second full AHL season and didn't get a call until the very end of the season.

 

[herzausstein]

Cooking v overcooking:

Require waivers next season:
Afanaseyev
Del Gaizo
Parssinen
Tomasino
Foudy
Dolan

Dolan and Foudy were waiver pickups so if they get waived again and are picked up not a huge loss.
Parssinen and Tomasino likely dont make it through so you either pencil them in your lineup in an appropriate place or you figure out a trade.
Afanaseyev seems like a logical trenin replacement for the 3rd line.
Not sure what to do with del gaizo. I personally think he looks good when we give him a shot but seems like stastney has passed him and he has Molendyk nipping at his heels. Ultimately he may just be a victim of the numbers game.


Require waivers in 25-26 or if they get enough games next season:
Evangelista
Livingstone
Stastney
Wilsby

Evangelista should be with the team again next season.
Stastney always looks great when given the chance at the nhl level.
Livingstone might be given a shot if carrier doesnt get extended and fabbro is moved. Otherwise, i guess he competes with fabbro.
Wilsby - Ahl


Decision point with other players
Glass
Fabbro

Neither impressed during the season or could earn consistent ice time. Glass is seemingly made of ... well... glass.

 

[sparkle twin]

Marcheassault

He just hit the post on a wide open net, he's a future Pred for sure.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

For some reason, even though I cancelled my ESPN+ subscription about 6 months ago, I still get some of their articles. A couple of writers discussed offseason needs for teams. Here's the Preds:

Projected 2024-25 cap space: $19,095,801

2024 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (TB), 2nd (WPG), 3rd, 3rd (DAL), 4th, 4th (CHI), 4th (EDM)

Keys to the offseason:

Decisions will need to be made with pending UFAs such as Anthony Beauvillier, Alexandre Carrier and Jason Zucker. And while the Predators were 10th in goals per game during the regular season, the lack of offensive onslaught during the playoffs could prompt them to find more options who could help next spring.

Then there's the goaltending.

Prized prospect goalie Yaroslav Askarov is going to be a central piece of the Predators' future, and he has been impressive the past two seasons in the AHL. When does his time as the Preds' franchise goalie begin? Current No. 1 goalie Juuse Saros' deal runs through next season, so perhaps it's a shared crease in 2024-25 before handing the reins to Askarov in 2025-26.

Realistic expectations for 2024-25:

Returning to the playoffs will be the goal in Andrew Brunette's second campaign behind the bench. However, there is a philosophical conversation to be had. Getting to the playoffs hadn't been the issue for the Predators; they made eight consecutive appearances before missing the postseason in 2022-23, but they had lost in the first round for five straight years. Will GM Barry Trotz run a similar group back and hope for better results, or take on more of a serious retool to take steps forward?

 

[Armourboy]

My issue with rolling it back again next season is that all of your older guys add another year. Is Nyquist going to have another career year or close to it? Is ROR going to have another season like this one or does he start sliding back? When does Josi start trailing off? You bringing a 32 year old Zucker back? McDonagh and Schenn both another year older as well.

I think this offseason Trotz needs to figure it out early what his goal is. If his goal is to try and make a push in the playoffs with this older group then there are some guys out there that can help you do that, but you aren't getting them on 3 year deals. If the goal is to start getting younger and transition out of some of the older guys then keeping a Zucker or bringing in guys to help you win games now probably isn't the right move.

To me if you go with trying to push now you are just going to be in for more pain down the road, some of which may start after next season when you gotta find replacements for McDonagh and Nyquist, or be signing those guys to 35+ contracts.

 

[Scoresberg]

Re-tool manual for the next year:

Trade Saros for the 10th OA. Make whatever moves you need in order to get your hands on Helenius.

Keep Askarov in the AHL for next year. Hope that he's ready after that.

Re-sign Lankinen, he's good enough to carry the load as 1B. Sign a UFA goalie to be the tandem.

Inject some youth into the lineup piece by piece, starting with Parssinen, Afanasyev, one of L'Heureux/Kemell and Statsney next year.

Make a push in 2025-2026

ROR will still has two years left. Josi will be 35. Sissons, McDonagh and Schenn will be in their final years.

Evangelista will hopefully be a legit top liner by then. Pärssinen will be a solid middle-six center. Afanasyev a bottom-sixer with some offensive punch. Ditto for L'Heureux. Svechkov could be an option as well. Molendyk will be a legit top-6 D. Askarov is ready for starter duty.

Forsberg - Helenius - Evangelista
L'Heureux - Pärssinen - X
Novak - O'Reilly - L'Heureux
Afanasyev - Sissons/Svechkov - Zucker/Smith

Josi - X
Molendyk - McDonagh
Lauzon - Statsney
Schenn

Fill in the X's in the 2025 offseason.

 

[herzausstein]

Re-tool manual for the next year:

Trade Saros for the 10th OA. Make whatever moves you need in order to get your hands on Helenius.

Keep Askarov in the AHL for next year. Hope that he's ready after that.

Re-sign Lankinen, he's good enough to carry the load as 1B. Sign a UFA goalie to be the tandem.

Inject some youth into the lineup piece by piece, starting with Parssinen, Afanasyev, one of L'Heureux/Kemell and Statsney next year.

Make a push in 2025-2026

ROR will still has two years left. Josi will be 35. Sissons, McDonagh and Schenn will be in their final years.

Evangelista will hopefully be a legit top liner by then. Pärssinen will be a solid middle-six center. Afanasyev a bottom-sixer with some offensive punch. Ditto for L'Heureux. Svechkov could be an option as well. Molendyk will be a legit top-6 D. Askarov is ready for starter duty.

Forsberg - Helenius - Evangelista
L'Heureux - Pärssinen - X
Novak - O'Reilly - L'Heureux
Afanasyev - Sissons/Svechkov - Zucker/Smith

Josi - X
Molendyk - McDonagh
Lauzon - Statsney
Schenn

Fill in the X's in the 2025 offseason.

Lankinen/Stolarz might be a compitent go to. Bring Askarov up for a couple starts as well and try to platoon it. Could also go after a Samsanov type as well and hope for a buy low candidate for a rebound.

Alot of options... none terribly impressive. The ones with good sv% are career backups (Brossoit/Stolarz) or old (Talbot).

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Here's my starting plan for the summer. I'm sure it will change.

Notes:
Glass, Tomasino, and L'Heureux are all question marks up front. Using Glass or Novak as #2C and the other on wing on that line is a placeholder starting point. The way L'Heureux came on as a rookie pro with the Ads makes me think he's the kind of player who will push himself when presented with a new challenge and could provide a useful spark up front. But it's also possible we could move on from Glass/Tomasino if a trade arises, start L'Heureux back in Milwaukee, open up spots for a UFA signing or two. Zucker was decent, but there's a limit to the contract I'd offer him, he'll probably get better offers on the open market.

I want to see Parssinen back at center. I doubt it will happen, alas. And Afanaseyev should have a full-time role. He could slide up to replace L'Heureux in that lineup if it is deemed better to overcook L'Heureux.

I don't need to see both of McCarron and Jankowski. Given I think we are going to be in a position to carry 8D, then I'd waive one of those guys. I'm not against re-signing Sherwood either, but he starts in Milwaukee too if so. Those guys can all fill in adequately in the NHL regular season, but they don't progress the organization or have anything else to give in the playoffs. We need better players. Whether we have them on hand internally or not is something we need to find out. Even if we ultimately learn that we don't.

On D, I'm putting Josi and Fabbro back together ES. But my main move is finding a sturdier UFA defenseman to replace Carrier with. Tanev and Pesce are RD, but we know McDonagh's versatility means we could get a LD equivalently. Zadorov and a few others are also out there. I feel like we'll end up overpaying on a guy in this slot, that's the nature of the free agent market, but I just don't like our mix on D right now. And we're going to be integrating Stastney at least, and possibly Del Gaizo, so I think it's a larger shutdown type of D that we're going to need most in the next few years. With all the Cap space we're going to have, it may be time to bite the bullet on that contract. Pesce had an awful season, maybe he won't cost as much as he would previously have?

I don't think we saw enough from Askarov or that we'll get good enough offers to move on from Saros in goal. But I would at least like to see Askarov backing him up and see where that goes next season.

With $14M to spend, we certainly have room to bolster the default below.


2024-25 Nashville Predators

Forsberg ($8.5M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Nyquist ($3.185M)
Glass ($2.5M)/Novak ($3.5M) - Evangelista ($0.7975M)
L'Heureux ($0.8633M) - Parssinen (RFA - $0.775M) - Tomasino (RFA - $0.775M)
Afanseyev (RFA - $0.775M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Smith ($1M)
McCarron ($0.900M)/Jankowski ($0.900M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Fabbro ($2.5M)
McDonagh ($6.75M) - UFA
Stastney (RFA - $0.775M) - Lauzon ($2M)
Del Gaizo (RFA - $0.775M) - Schenn ($2.75M)

Saros ($5M)
Askarov ($0.925M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Johansen retention: $4M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $5.5556M

TOTAL: $73.26743M
2024-25 NHL Cap: $87.7M
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $14.43257M

 

[predhead1]

I don't know if it's strictly a personnel issue, but once again we are in desperate need of improvement in the PP. We were middle of the pack in the regular season, and "awful" isn't a strong enough adjective to describe the post-season performance. A lot of this is due to only having one line of high-level scoring talent, but we need a systems change as well - at least when a team is playing a highly aggressive PK style like Vancouver did to us. Our guys looked so uncomfortable with the puck under pressure that I doubt Vancouver felt threatened any time they were shorthanded.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I'd kind of like to see Zucker back just because I think he's a great model type for what ZLH can become.

 

[weeze]

I keep reminding myself how fun the regular season was, eventually I'll get over being pissed.

Was the regular season fun up to January? Or was it fun from the streak forward? I'll admit that I am not local and do not go to any games but I do have Center Ice and watch probably 90% of all games. Even the late games to my detriment. A lot of those early season games were not fun to watch. But I still did. The team did get better, and when I started to see what HCAB started to implement, and the players run, it was more enjoyable when they were able to play that style. The Preds just do not have the full compliment of players to fit that style of play. If that means they need to shed a few players then so be it. Make the moves. We have to have a 1C and another scoring winger. Whether that comes from Milwaukee or FA/trade then get it done. Is Saros the future? IDK. Is Asky the future? IDK. Boston has 2 very good goalies. Nucks just beat us with 3 goalies. Glad it is not me making this decision.

 

[triggrman]

I mean from mid November to the end of December we won like 15 games, which was lots of fun, then the long point streak towards the end of the season was great.

Pretty much after mid November to the playoffs this team was way better than expected.

 

[drwpreds]

Almost every team has streaks and ups and downs. The bottom line is we basically had a 100 point season, and for me, that is a good- and fun- season

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It was a fun season. In isolation. I'm not sure it satisfied my hopes in terms of advancing us to any "next level" of competitiveness, however. Which was somewhat frustrating at times. If you just wanted to look at the season in isolation and say it was fun to watch games and go on the run that led to 99-pts and a playoff berth, however, then that was fun.

 

[PredsV82]

Was the regular season fun up to January? Or was it fun from the streak forward? I'll admit that I am not local and do not go to any games but I do have Center Ice and watch probably 90% of all games. Even the late games to my detriment. A lot of those early season games were not fun to watch. But I still did. The team did get better, and when I started to see what HCAB started to implement, and the players run, it was more enjoyable when they were able to play that style. The Preds just do not have the full compliment of players to fit that style of play. If that means they need to shed a few players then so be it. Make the moves. We have to have a 1C and another scoring winger. Whether that comes from Milwaukee or FA/trade then get it done. Is Saros the future? IDK. Is Asky the future? IDK. Boston has 2 very good goalies. Nucks just beat us with 3 goalies. Glad it is not me making this decision.

There were actually 2 "streaks". The first one started after we began the season 5-10-0. We dug ourselves out of that hole with a 9-2-0 run, then kinda treaded water just above .500 until the big streak.

 

[Enoch]

We have a substantial deficit in forward talent and speed compared to other teams. If you don't correct this, we will continue to lose. The only other model is to make the back end substantially better (and it is already good), and have vezina goaltending (Saros was not there this year).

 

[ShagDaddy]

I don't know if it's strictly a personnel issue, but once again we are in desperate need of improvement in the PP. We were middle of the pack in the regular season, and "awful" isn't a strong enough adjective to describe the post-season performance. A lot of this is due to only having one line of high-level scoring talent, but we need a systems change as well - at least when a team is playing a highly aggressive PK style like Vancouver did to us. Our guys looked so uncomfortable with the puck under pressure that I doubt Vancouver felt threatened any time they were shorthanded.

Blame it on Josi. When he’s playing the half wall with someone else running the point, the power play was pretty good. With Josi at the point it really kills the momentum because as soon as he gets the puck he always dances across the blue line holding the puck looking for a lane to shoot and then more times than not slaps it off a defenders skates. He doesn’t try to get the puck to the half wall or down low quick enough.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Part of the PP problem has to just come down to player personnel? The 8 top PP teams have huge concentrations of superstar players don't they? We don't have enough true star players to match many of those teams. We have Josi and Forsberg. But not a whole unit of 5 star players?

Teams like Detroit or Minnesota who were 9th and 10th are only marginally better than we were. That's probably the limit of the kind of improvement we could make just by having some kind of better system implementation? Something like a 2% boost? To go above that, the main ingredient is just going to be adding talent?