Nashville Predators Talk - 2024/2025 Season

[herzausstein]

Unless we get hit by the injury bug, we are probably pick 8-12 by end of season. There really arent any in season trades that i think would make us worse then that. Most of the higher end players have contracts that make in season trades difficult.

RoR is the only player i could see making a huge impact if traded but Trotz has said he is treating that as if he has a NMC so i wouldnt expect him moved this season.

I think Annunen would probably deliver similar results to Saros as long as we dont make him play every single game and have an adequate backup.

Nyquist is replacable

Lauzon has already been replaced more than adequately

Sissons could probably be replaced

Novak could probably be replaced

 

[Cupvoid]

Has any team successfully tanked with a goalie as good as Saros? As uninspiring as our on ice product has been most of the year, Saros keeps us in too many games to win a tankathon.
In our last 16 games, or right around the time Oreilly got hurt and Forsberg moved to Stamkos and Marchy line, we are 9-6-1 and the line is clicking.
I read somewhere we have the easiest schedule for the rest of the season so I can easily see us picking in the 10th-12th range. Mushy middle.
But Saturday’s game vs Mild was fun and entertaining. I miss that feeling and it reminded me why I can’t cheer for my team to lose. I’d love a top 4 pick but this roster just isn’t bad enough to suck that bad over a full 82 game season.

 

[Armourboy]

Just kind of getting caught up but let me say this, if your mentality is that you only find enjoyment if your team wins a cup, or gets close, you don't just need to find a different franchise to root for, you need to get out of the NHL entirely.

Any any given season a Stanley Cup winner is an outlier. They are 1 of 32 to do something in a given season, whether you like the thought of it or not, that is the definition of an outlier. So already out of the gate you are looking for something that is unlikely to happen.

Another way to look at it, the best odds you have at 50% to do anything in the NHL in a given year is make the playoffs. Seriously, 50% are the best odds you are going to see through the rest of this. The best odds once you make the playoffs, at roughly 20% is if you win the Presidents Trophy. Think about that, the best regular season team every year has at best a 20% chance to win the thing. Then you consider being 1/32 ( if I did my math right) you have a 3% chance to win.

Another way to look at it, Toronto, Edmonton, Carolina, etc. All with arguably better players than us, some with multiple of the best players in the league, either haven't met, or have just barely met the exact same thing this franchise has in the last 20 years.

So if going deep in the playoffs is the only reason you can find enjoyment in hockey, you better get out of the hockey game because you are going to be miserable for 90% of your existence in the sport.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Winning is hard. It's a lot harder when you're stupid. I think we need to fix the stupid before the draft picks can possibly matter.

I think the "why not both" meme fits here. Say we actually did win the lottery and got Hagens. Is it better to have that franchise player on board, even with bad coaching and management? Yes of course it is. The bad coaching and management won't last 20 years. At most it lasts another 3 or 4? The draft pick will outlive bad coaching and management. So get the player if you can. The rest will eventually take care of itself.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Just kind of getting caught up but let me say this, if your mentality is that you only find enjoyment if your team wins a cup, or gets close, you don't just need to find a different franchise to root for, you need to get out of the NHL entirely.

Any any given season a Stanley Cup winner is an outlier. They are 1 of 32 to do something in a given season, whether you like the thought of it or not, that is the definition of an outlier. So already out of the gate you are looking for something that is unlikely to happen.

Another way to look at it, the best odds you have at 50% to do anything in the NHL in a given year is make the playoffs. Seriously, 50% are the best odds you are going to see through the rest of this. The best odds once you make the playoffs, at roughly 20% is if you win the Presidents Trophy. Think about that, the best regular season team every year has at best a 20% chance to win the thing. Then you consider being 1/32 ( if I did my math right) you have a 3% chance to win.

Another way to look at it, Toronto, Edmonton, Carolina, etc. All with arguably better players than us, some with multiple of the best players in the league, either haven't met, or have just barely met the exact same thing this franchise has in the last 20 years.

So if going deep in the playoffs is the only reason you can find enjoyment in hockey, you better get out of the hockey game because you are going to be miserable for 90% of your existence in the sport.

Agreed. Winning a Cup has never been an objective for me. It would be a very nice bonus. But just the race to make the playoffs, even if the team isn't labeled a "contender", it's fun to hope that they might pull off an upset or two in the playoffs. Every year this debate comes up, and every year I argue against "tanking" and state my preference is to just make the playoffs and "see what happens".

But again, this year is different... because we have already spent the first half not just "outside the playoffs" but actually in the basement of the entire league. We haven't been "chasing a wildcard spot". We have been jockeying with the full-on tanking teams for 32nd place in the league. We cannot possibly make the playoffs now.

Oh sure, we're not actually mathematically eliminated yet, but no need to get overly pedantic about that... our odds via the various Monte Carlo simulators out there have hoovered around 0.5-2%. Peaking at 2% with the recent mini win streak. If you can pin your hopes on making the playoffs from where we currently sit in the standings... whoo boy, that's a brand of crazy fandom I think is a little mentally unstable. But good for you. 98% odds of missing the playoffs is good enough for me to declare we're done.

And given I believe "we're done", then this season is different than all the others (recently anyway). We are not going to sneak into a playoff spot, period. That definitely should re-focus our discussion onto which players we might sell for futures, how our prospects are progressing, or where our draft pick is going to land. I don't see any reason to argue that those shouldn't be the focal points for our discussion the rest of the way.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

I think the plan for the Preds should be pretty easy. Top-10 farm + a shitload of picks + some good vets = play the kids and sprinkle in a vet presence to help out. I do think Stammer, ROR, Josi, and Marchy are a great team of vets to have around the kids. There just needs to be a plan in place. Giving away Asky and Fabbro and keeping Bruno hasn't been a good start. Hopefully we get some good picks this draft and have a plan to play some of our top prospects and turn this around.

 

[Kat Predator]

Agreed. Winning a Cup has never been an objective for me. It would be a very nice bonus. But just the race to make the playoffs, even if the team isn't labeled a "contender", it's fun to hope that they might pull off an upset or two in the playoffs. Every year this debate comes up, and every year I argue against "tanking" and state my preference is to just make the playoffs and "see what happens".

But again, this year is different... because we have already spent the first half not just "outside the playoffs" but actually in the basement of the entire league. We haven't been "chasing a wildcard spot". We have been jockeying with the full-on tanking teams for 32nd place in the league. We cannot possibly make the playoffs now.

Oh sure, we're not actually mathematically eliminated yet, but no need to get overly pedantic about that... our odds via the various Monte Carlo simulators out there have hoovered around 0.5-2%. Peaking at 2% with the recent mini win streak. If you can pin your hopes on making the playoffs from where we currently sit in the standings... whoo boy, that's a brand of crazy fandom I think is a little mentally unstable. But good for you. 98% odds of missing the playoffs is good enough for me to declare we're done.

And given I believe "we're done", then this season is different than all the others (recently anyway). We are not going to sneak into a playoff spot, period. That definitely should re-focus our discussion onto which players we might sell for futures, how our prospects are progressing, or where our draft pick is going to land. I don't see any reason to argue that those shouldn't be the focal points for our discussion the rest of the way.

Using Barry Math, that 2% chance is the same as 20 out of 10, so we're a slam dunk for the playoffs. No worries.

 

[herzausstein]

I think the plan for the Preds should be pretty easy. Top-10 farm + a shitload of picks + some good vets = play the kids and sprinkle in a vet presence to help out. I do think Stammer, ROR, Josi, and Marchy are a great team of vets to have around the kids. There just needs to be a plan in place. Giving away Asky and Fabbro and keeping Bruno hasn't been a good start. Hopefully we get some good picks this draft and have a plan to play some of our top prospects and turn this around.

Except we dont seem to allow the youth in with the vets. I really thought this would be the season we saw Evangelista and or novak lifted up and playing with ror/stamkos... instead theyre paired with Jankowski again.

The only way i see it happening is if Bruno is canned or Trotz moves the vets away from him.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Except we dont seem to allow the youth in with the vets. I really thought this would be the season we saw Evangelista and or novak lifted up and playing with ror/stamkos... instead theyre paired with Jankowski again.

The only way i see it happening is if Bruno is canned or Trotz moves the vets away from him.

Agreed. That’s what I meant by there needs to be a plan. I think the plan should be pretty straightforward but Trotz is all over the place and it’s tough to see what his plan is.

 

[originalpredfan]

It's difficult most years to get the #1 pick "wrong" per se. Which is not to say that a #1 pick always pans out. But there's almost always enough of a consensus that you can't really pin any ultimate failure on the GM who picked the player. It'll be like that again this year. If we pick #1, I don't think Trotz is going to make "the wrong pick". If the player subsequently doesn't pan out... that's going to be down to other factors.

So yeah, I would MUCH rather have the #1 pick than the #15 pick, regardless of who is making the pick or coaching the team. This season. The odds of getting #1 are very slim anyway. As are the odds of picking as low as #15. But even if you change the goalposts to something more realistic like #3 vs. #11... I'll take #3. Again, even with Trotz making the call. It's actually easier to get it right the closer you get to the top.

Just in terms of making the pick, anyway. The thing with most successful teams, however, is that you have to hit on more than just a single draft pick. You have to succeed all over the map, with later picks, with development, with trades and contracts, and... coach selection. So... yes, we have some BIG challenges ahead if we're going to have a successful team, even past the question of who we draft in the 1st round this summer.

Actually I was just voicing my opinion that I have little faith that the current regime has proven that whether it's draft picks, free agents, or developing young players that they can get anything right.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Just kind of getting caught up but let me say this, if your mentality is that you only find enjoyment if your team wins a cup, or gets close, you don't just need to find a different franchise to root for, you need to get out of the NHL entirely.

Any any given season a Stanley Cup winner is an outlier. They are 1 of 32 to do something in a given season, whether you like the thought of it or not, that is the definition of an outlier. So already out of the gate you are looking for something that is unlikely to happen.

Another way to look at it, the best odds you have at 50% to do anything in the NHL in a given year is make the playoffs. Seriously, 50% are the best odds you are going to see through the rest of this. The best odds once you make the playoffs, at roughly 20% is if you win the Presidents Trophy. Think about that, the best regular season team every year has at best a 20% chance to win the thing. Then you consider being 1/32 ( if I did my math right) you have a 3% chance to win.

Another way to look at it, Toronto, Edmonton, Carolina, etc. All with arguably better players than us, some with multiple of the best players in the league, either haven't met, or have just barely met the exact same thing this franchise has in the last 20 years.

So if going deep in the playoffs is the only reason you can find enjoyment in hockey, you better get out of the hockey game because you are going to be miserable for 90% of your existence in the sport.

I didn't say the only enjoyment would be winning a cup, but that should be the ultimate goal. I want to see the team on a path that will get us there which I don't think happens unless we have a true franchise player that isn't a goaltender and the only way to really get those is to draft them and we haven't been in a position to do so.

Again, if I saw us playing the young guys, developing them and losing not a problem. Mushy middle though is problematic.

Winning is exceptionally hard. It takes a lot of things lining up the right way in order happen. Right now though Barry is just shaking a magic 8 ball and hoping something sticks. There doesn't seem to be a plan or the verbalized plan doesn't match the moves we make.

We have a chance to get a true franchise piece that we haven't gotten since Jones. We should take it.

I can't argue this point any further and we just get lost in circles. I think everyone just wants to feel like the team is moving towards having a window of contention open... And right now it is firmly shut.

 

[herzausstein]

Agreed. That’s what I meant by there needs to be a plan. I think the plan should be pretty straightforward but Trotz is all over the place and it’s tough to see what his plan is.

Maybe trotz has a vision but Bruno has other plans. I would be interested if these are the lines trotz had in mind when he grabbed these players.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Maybe trotz has a vision but Bruno has other plans. I would be interested if these are the lines trotz had in mind when he grabbed these players.

Trotz’s vision is just as messed up. Giving away some young talent and botching the goalie situation shouldn’t be part of any plan.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Agreed. That’s what I meant by there needs to be a plan. I think the plan should be pretty straightforward but Trotz is all over the place and it’s tough to see what his plan is.

It sure seemed to me like Trotz was voicing the plan to integrate the youngsters during the summer. It's just that he did the exact opposite once the season actually rolled around. (Or, allowed Brunette to do the exact opposite anyway - same thing.)

So I don't know if that really was his plan, and he changed it, or if he was just BSing and never really had that plan to begin with. He sure talked a good talk for a while there, and most of us bought into it. But we sure have seen something different unfold IRL. At first, it was refreshing to hear him chat so much about the team, lay out all his supposed thoughts and ideas... it was a bit of a change from the more taciturn Poile style. But I'm really not going to pay much attention anymore to what he says going forward. He'll have to show it for me to believe any of it next time.

 

[ShagDaddy]

I’m not going to bash the way anyone enjoys sports, it’s a personal preference and everyone is entitled to that. For me personally, I watch the SPHL, ECHL and AHL for the love of the game. When it comes to the NHL, I expect an organization to be ruthless and striving to win it all. They charge a premium price, I expect a premium product. I don’t want to pay to drive a Corvette and be given an Opal instead. That’s just me and how I view it. If the organization openly stated, we are building a Corvette it’s just going to take a few years to get there, then I’m ok with the building process because I know the end result. If the organization is fine driving an Opal against Corvette’s because they’re just happy to be in the race, I’m not ok with that. Being in the half of the league that makes the playoffs and then hoping for the best of maybe winning a round is for the love of the game mentality and I can get that for a LOT cheaper with the ECHL or SPHL. Again that’s just how I view professional sports and if that’s not how someone else views it that’s fine too.

 

[wmupreds]

I’m not going to bash the way anyone enjoys sports, it’s a personal preference and everyone is entitled to that. For me personally, I watch the SPHL, ECHL and AHL for the love of the game. When it comes to the NHL, I expect an organization to be ruthless and striving to win it all. They charge a premium price, I expect a premium product. I don’t want to pay to drive a Corvette and be given an Opal instead. That’s just me and how I view it. If the organization openly stated, we are building a Corvette it’s just going to take a few years to get there, then I’m ok with the building process because I know the end result. If the organization is fine driving an Opal against Corvette’s because they’re just happy to be in the race, I’m not ok with that. Being in the half of the league that makes the playoffs and then hoping for the best of maybe winning a round is for the love of the game mentality and I can get that for a LOT cheaper with the ECHL or SPHL. Again that’s just how I view professional sports and if that’s not how someone else views it that’s fine too.

This is a good point given the prices Preds are charging these days.

 

[glenngineer]

I don't find Tampa a compelling example. They drafted four potential hall of farmers within a short window and hit on 3 or more other major pieces. They hit on scouting, hit on draft placement, hit on those being good draft years to be at the bottom, hit on development, etc... It's like saying the Titans should just emulate what the Patriots did. Most franchises aren't that lucky or good with their drafts, even in the tank (see Buffalo, NYI, Columbus, Arizona, Anaheim, Detroit) and this organization definitely isn't either. As @You says above, winning is hard. Toronto and Edmonton, with all their drafted talent, can't manage to get over the hump, while a St. Louis does.

That’s the point though, no pun intended. If you remove everyone outside of their 1st round picks, they’re a good team, maybe even great. Remove the elite picks and they’re probably contenders. Add Point and Kuch and they are what they are.

Everyone thinks that landing a top 5 pick will fix the mess. It won't. You say they drafted four potential HOF'ers, possibly five. Two of those were top 2 in their draft, one came mid round and the other two in later rounds. Name the elite players we've drafted. Would it be fair to say Weber, Suter and Rinne were elite? If not, they were pretty damn close. Name any other player that is anywhere close to these three. Name any forward we've ever drafted that was a clear cut top 3 forward. We've never done it.

I will say this until I'm blue in the face but in close to 40 years as a GM, Poile's best forwards he drafted were Mike Gartner, Jason Allison and Peter Bondra. 40 freaking years. In his time in Nashville, he never drafted anyone close to the talent of these guys. He landed a few top 6 forwards. Wonder why we've been stuck in the mushy middle for 25 years, that's why. Guess who Trotz watched and learned from his formative years, Poile.

A GM and his staff have to draft and develop well. They have to make shrewd moves to bolster the lineup with either players they've drafted or ones they've acquired. They have to use their strengths to acquire players that will improve their weaknesses.

While I appreciate what Trotz did for McDonagh, do you think Vegas would've shipped him back to Tampa for a 2nd? He was an asset, a valuable one at that, yet all we got in return was a 2nd? We had a three-headed goalie tandem last year of Saros, Lankinen and Askarov. That strength is not as good as it once was and if Saros were to go down for any length of time, we're relying on Anunen and whoever the goalies are in Milwauke. Not reassuring. We moved on from former first round picks for pennies on the dollar and in some cases, for nothing in return.

To say Tampa isn't a great example I don't agree with. They lucked out to some degree but they also hit on a lot of players to win two Cups. You don't do that unless you have the scouts and people to develop these kids. Detroit landed guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg after the first, once again, good scouting. We keep repeating the same mistakes but hey, we're just happy to be here. If we're happy with the mushy middle because we're the underdog, fine, whoopty do. On the flip side, when you're having a crap season like we are with no plan in sight, maybe now is the time for the overhaul this franchise has sorely needed for a long time.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

That’s the point though, no pun intended. If you remove everyone outside of their 1st round picks, they’re a good team, maybe even great. Remove the elite picks and they’re probably contenders. Add Point and Kuch and they are what they are.

Everyone thinks that landing a top 5 pick will fix the mess. It won't. You say they drafted four potential HOF'ers, possibly five. Two of those were top 2 in their draft, one came mid round and the other two in later rounds. Name the elite players we've drafted. Would it be fair to say Weber, Suter and Rinne were elite? If not, they were pretty damn close. Name any other player that is anywhere close to these three. Name any forward we've ever drafted that was a clear cut top 3 forward. We've never done it.

I will say this until I'm blue in the face but in close to 40 years as a GM, Poile's best forwards he drafted were Mike Gartner, Jason Allison and Peter Bondra. 40 freaking years. In his time in Nashville, he never drafted anyone close to the talent of these guys. He landed a few top 6 forwards. Wonder why we've been stuck in the mushy middle for 25 years, that's why. Guess who Trotz watched and learned from his formative years, Poile.

A GM and his staff have to draft and develop well. They have to make shrewd moves to bolster the lineup with either players they've drafted or ones they've acquired. They have to use their strengths to acquire players that will improve their weaknesses.

While I appreciate what Trotz did for McDonagh, do you think Vegas would've shipped him back to Tampa for a 2nd? He was an asset, a valuable one at that, yet all we got in return was a 2nd? We had a three-headed goalie tandem last year of Saros, Lankinen and Askarov. That strength is not as good as it once was and if Saros were to go down for any length of time, we're relying on Anunen and whoever the goalies are in Milwauke. Not reassuring. We moved on from former first round picks for pennies on the dollar and in some cases, for nothing in return.

To say Tampa isn't a great example I don't agree with. They lucked out to some degree but they also hit on a lot of players to win two Cups. You don't do that unless you have the scouts and people to develop these kids. Detroit landed guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg after the first, once again, good scouting. We keep repeating the same mistakes but hey, we're just happy to be here. If we're happy with the mushy middle because we're the underdog, fine, whoopty do. On the flip side, when you're having a crap season like we are with no plan in sight, maybe now is the time for the overhaul this franchise has sorely needed for a long time.

Tampa is a team to aspire to emulate (re: scouting, development, even when to let players go, etc..), sure. As an org the Preds can practically emulate, there's no chance at this moment. Our scouting doesn't seem to jibe with any long-term roster management vision, our talent identification is iffy, our development pathway is completely unclear and we are abysmal at long-term success transitioning prospects to full-fledged NHL players.. I have zero confidence this front office, as is, could successfully pull off a tanking rebuild.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

…
Everyone thinks that landing a top 5 pick will fix the mess.

While I agree with most of your essay, I really don’t think anybody believes this. Still, landing a top 5 pick is better than not landing one. It’s just one more ingredient in the stew.

 

[glenngineer]

Tampa is a team to aspire to emulate (re: scouting, development, even when to let players go, etc..), sure. As an org the Preds can practically emulate, there's no chance at this moment. Our scouting doesn't seem to jibe with any long-term roster management vision, our talent identification is iffy, our development pathway is completely unclear and we are abysmal at long-term success transitioning prospects to full-fledged NHL players.. I have zero confidence this front office, as is, could successfully pull off a tanking rebuild.

Whole heartedly agree.

 

[glenngineer]

While I agree with most of your essay, I really don’t think anybody believes this. Still, landing a top 5 pick is better than not landing one. It’s just one more ingredient in the stew.

It's much larger than that. Even if we get the top 5 pick and get a franchise center, it doesn't fix the problem of inability to draft and develop forwards who can turn into legit top 6, let alone top 3 forwards. It doesn't fix the inability with this particular regime to know how to get the most out of the assets we have.

I said this a while back and I have to catch myself, the hope of what our draft picks will turn into is what I've always tried to believe in, a lot of times with a small sample size, when in reality, the data long term suggests we don't do well at addressing our needs at forward via the draft.

We also tend to want to build from the back to the forwards and that has gotten us one Cup run. It's not a formula for success. What's the most important piece to building a contender, a 1C, 1W, 1D or 1G. 1C is the general consensus. 1G is usually at the bottom of the pile.

It's been a long day mentally. I'm gonna eat some dinner before the game. Hope everyone enjoys!!

 

[Armourboy]

I’m not going to bash the way anyone enjoys sports, it’s a personal preference and everyone is entitled to that. For me personally, I watch the SPHL, ECHL and AHL for the love of the game. When it comes to the NHL, I expect an organization to be ruthless and striving to win it all. They charge a premium price, I expect a premium product. I don’t want to pay to drive a Corvette and be given an Opal instead. That’s just me and how I view it. If the organization openly stated, we are building a Corvette it’s just going to take a few years to get there, then I’m ok with the building process because I know the end result. If the organization is fine driving an Opal against Corvette’s because they’re just happy to be in the race, I’m not ok with that. Being in the half of the league that makes the playoffs and then hoping for the best of maybe winning a round is for the love of the game mentality and I can get that for a LOT cheaper with the ECHL or SPHL. Again that’s just how I view professional sports and if that’s not how someone else views it that’s fine too.

I seriously doubt anyone in this organization has ever drafted anyone, or signed anyone with the idea it doesn't make the team better. I mean even this offseason, every one of those signings was made with the idea this team would be one that could do something in the playoffs.

Teams don't spend to the cap and pay guys to play with other organizations because they are just happy to be there. People get tired of the mushy middle, 80% of the league is in the mushy middle.

 

[ShagDaddy]

I seriously doubt anyone in this organization has ever drafted anyone, or signed anyone with the idea it doesn't make the team better. I mean even this offseason, every one of those signings was made with the idea this team would be one that could do something in the playoffs.

Teams don't spend to the cap and pay guys to play with other organizations because they are just happy to be there. People get tired of the mushy middle, 80% of the league is in the mushy middle.

The organization went from a country club environment to a retirement home environment. They’ve shown no indication in the last 5 years that they can build a roster like Vegas without the draft or Dallas through the draft. Regardless of how much or how little they spend in relation to the cap, they are just happy to be there. The end of the Poile era, they were just happy to get to the golf course , the beginning of the Trotz era they’re just happy to get their Jello after the game.

 

[Armourboy]

The organization went from a country club environment to a retirement home environment. They’ve shown no indication in the last 5 years that they can build a roster like Vegas without the draft or Dallas through the draft. Regardless of how much or how little they spend in relation to the cap, they are just happy to be there. The end of the Poile era, they were just happy to get to the golf course , the beginning of the Trotz era they’re just happy to get their Jello after the game.

Think what you want of the players, but I seriously doubt Trotz made the moves he did in the offseason because he was just happy to be there.

They may not have worked but he didn't spend that kind of money with the expectations of heading to the golf course.

 

[ShagDaddy]

Think what you want of the players, but I seriously doubt Trotz made the moves he did in the offseason because he was just happy to be there.

They may not have worked but he didn't spend that kind of money with the expectations of heading to the golf course.

There in lies the problem. Either Trotz has no idea how to build a roster or Brunette doesn’t know how to use the roster he’s given. Either way I hope they enjoy their Jello cups after the game.