I'm watching the Jackets instead right now (Werenski just scored as I was typing this, woohoo!
) but I can give the quick version with this link:
Detailed 2025 NHL lottery odds. View the current odds for each lottery spot to get specific picks. See the chances that a pick is traded based on position.
tankathon.com
We're currently dead last in the NHL, so that makes it a little easier to see the case against. Note that by far the most likely outcome is moving down two spots. Moving down
at all is overwhelmingly likely.
There is, however, no guarantee we finish last (and trying to assure it has more evil consequences later on, but that's a separate harangue). In truth, the "you're most likely to
lose draft position" situation applies to everyone in the bottom 6 - for #6 overall (coincidentally where the Jackets are at the immediate moment) it's just barely more than a coin flip to not move down (50.5% versus 49.5% to stay in place or move up). Beyond that, "stay in place or move up" becomes the most likely outcome.
So penciling in a top-2 guy - or, even worse, the #1 overall - is little more than an exercise in misery-building. When it was the Jackets that were flirting with Dead Last in 2022-23, I was so confident we wouldn't end up with Bedard that I made a bet that if he did become a Blue Jacket, I'd have
@BigFatCat999 do me up in clown makeup (I'm terrified of clowns despite - or perhaps because
- of having one for a surrogate big brother) and appear on video. As we all know all too well, Bedard did not come to Columbus.
(...and Monahan just scored as I was wrapping this post up.
Maybe I should reiterate this odds thing
every time the Jackets are playing...)