Nashville Predators Talk - 2024/2025 Season

[Predsanddead24]

So to make the playoffs we need to win something like 64% of the remaining games... (40-23-0).

Considering we are currently 6-10-3, i think it is pretty safe to say that it isnt happening. Even on this semi-successful road trip, we have only managed to go 1-1-2 so far (50%). 50% of the points has us finishing with 78 points. Last season that'd put us around 25th in the league. Our home record and away records are similar. Home 4-6-0 (40% points) away 2-4-3 (38.9% points).

Yeah this is the point last season where we started to turn things around and while it's still possible for us to do it again it's going to require us to once again be one of the better teams in the league down the stretch.

 

[herzausstein]

Yeah this is the point last season where we started to turn things around and while it's still possible for us to do it again it's going to require us to once again be one of the better teams in the league down the stretch.

The underlying numbers for the team are much worse than last year 19 games into the season.

2024 vs 2023 (through 19 games)
2.42 vs 3.37 Goals/game
3.21 vs 3.26 Goals Against/game
21 vs 38 5v5 goals
15 points vs 18 points

So 19 games into the season:
We are scoring almost a full goal a game less
Allowing just as many goals against per game
Scoring 1.105 5v5 goals a game vs 2 5v5 goals a game
Actually somehow have 3 less points in the standings
All this with Saros actually putting out decent numbers (excellent if you compare them to last season at this point)

Saros 2024 vs 2023
.914 vs .894 sv%
2.55 vs 3.13 GAA
5-8-2 vs 6-9-0
Saros is a top 10 starter this season instead of a bottom 10 like last season (more than 10 games played).

 

[Legionnaire11]

There's been a lot of talk about how we brought in a bunch of slow, aging players and many point that as the main problem with the team. However, if you look at them relative to the team, aren't they performing as expected?

Among forwards, when they were signed, we pegged Stamkos and Marchessault as 2nd liners here. Implying that they should be somewhere in the 3-6 range of forward scoring with the team. Currently they are tied for 3rd in forward scoring behind only Forsberg and O'Reilly. Really, exactly where they were expected to be.

Skjei was expected to be the second best defenseman on the team, either anchoring the second line or supporting Josi on the first line. And indeed, he is currently second in defense scoring, exactly where he was expected to be.

However, it's not their position of success relative to the team that stinks, it's the overall numbers that really stinks. Stamkos for example, for all of the talk about how old and slow and cooked he is, he still went over point-per-game each of the last three seasons with 104, 84 and 81 point seasons. Now he's on pace for 43. Did he somehow regress that horribly with the stroke of a pen? or is Brunette just not getting the most out of this roster?

I know which answer seems more likely.

 

[Predsanddead24]

The underlying numbers for the team are much worse than last year 19 games into the season.

2024 vs 2023 (through 19 games)
2.42 vs 3.37 Goals/game
3.21 vs 3.26 Goals Against/game
21 vs 38 5v5 goals
15 points vs 18 points

So 19 games into the season:
We are scoring almost a full goal a game less
Allowing just as many goals against per game
Scoring 1.105 5v5 goals a game vs 2 5v5 goals a game
Actually somehow have 3 less points in the standings
All this with Saros actually putting out decent numbers (excellent if you compare them to last season at this point)

Saros 2024 vs 2023
.914 vs .894 sv%
2.55 vs 3.13 GAA
5-8-2 vs 6-9-0
Saros is a top 10 starter this season instead of a bottom 10 like last season (more than 10 games played).

We've also to this point played one of the easier schedules in the league and according to Tankathon's method have the hardest remaining schedule in the league. Definitely not much there to suggest a turnaround is coming.

 

[JR303]

As a day 1 fan, surely I can't be the only one that finds this to be the stupidest f***ing timeline as a Predators fan.....
I'll give Trotz all the praise he deserves as a coach, but if you don't think right now we wouldn't be largely better as a team if you swap O'Reilly and Schenn out with Duchene and Ekholm, I don't know what to say... (I think Ekholm was Poile, but if I remember correctly, BT was helping him that season)

This is largely ignoring the use/handling of our young players, but I think all of that's been discussed already.

All that said, the players honestly don't look like they are playing for the "team", I know that's easy to say from my couch, but we've watched some bad teams over the years, but you could see they were usually giving a concerted effort. Not to mention, able to make/receive a pass with at least a little bit of acumen.

Sorry, I'm still frustrated even after that win. Was luck and Saros that we got that one.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

There's been a lot of talk about how we brought in a bunch of slow, aging players and many point that as the main problem with the team. However, if you look at them relative to the team, aren't they performing as expected?

Among forwards, when they were signed, we pegged Stamkos and Marchessault as 2nd liners here. Implying that they should be somewhere in the 3-6 range of forward scoring with the team. Currently they are tied for 3rd in forward scoring behind only Forsberg and O'Reilly. Really, exactly where they were expected to be.

Skjei was expected to be the second best defenseman on the team, either anchoring the second line or supporting Josi on the first line. And indeed, he is currently second in defense scoring, exactly where he was expected to be.

However, it's not their position of success relative to the team that stinks, it's the overall numbers that really stinks. Stamkos for example, for all of the talk about how old and slow and cooked he is, he still went over point-per-game each of the last three seasons with 104, 84 and 81 point seasons. Now he's on pace for 43. Did he somehow regress that horribly with the stroke of a pen? or is Brunette just not getting the most out of this roster?

I know which answer seems more likely.

Kucherov

 

[glenngineer]

As a day 1 fan, surely I can't be the only one that finds this to be the stupidest f***ing timeline as a Predators fan.....
I'll give Trotz all the praise he deserves as a coach, but if you don't think right now we wouldn't be largely better as a team if you swap O'Reilly and Schenn out with Duchene and Ekholm, I don't know what to say... (I think Ekholm was Poile, but if I remember correctly, BT was helping him that season)

This is largely ignoring the use/handling of our young players, but I think all of that's been discussed already.

All that said, the players honestly don't look like they are playing for the "team", I know that's easy to say from my couch, but we've watched some bad teams over the years, but you could see they were usually giving a concerted effort. Not to mention, able to make/receive a pass with at least a little bit of acumen.

Sorry, I'm still frustrated even after that win. Was luck and Saros that we got that one.

The good that came out of moving Ekholm was Molendyk. That's all that I've got.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The good that came out of moving Ekholm was Molendyk. That's all that I've got.

And generally speaking, folks were surprised we picked Molendyk that high... he was rated a bit lower in the draft. Likely some other team out there had an eye on him too. But if we need to pick as high as #24 to get him, well, we also had the 2 2nds we used on Nilsson/Lind (and other stuff) which could conceivably have been packaged to move up, if our scouts loved Molendyk that much. It's not necessarily Only-By-Trading-Ekholm that we could have landed Molendyk, since he was considered a bit of a reach on draft day.

 

[herzausstein]

We've also to this point played one of the easier schedules in the league and according to Tankathon's method have the hardest remaining schedule in the league. Definitely not much there to suggest a turnaround is coming.

Yeah i didnt even consider strength of schedule here. Not sure how it compares to last season but our good run last season had a fair amount of lower end teams or teams that were slumping.

I looked at our performance in November this season as well. The GA/Game is really the only thing that is improved overall 2.78 GA/GP and 2.44 GF/GP for the 9 games in November. Still bottom 1/3 of the NHL in those and our 5v5 goals for is still near the very bottom of the NHL with the only teams that are worse having played less games then us. It is an improvement from the first half of qhat we have played but still nowhere near enough to make the playoffs.

 

[Armourboy]

As a day 1 fan, surely I can't be the only one that finds this to be the stupidest f***ing timeline as a Predators fan.....
I'll give Trotz all the praise he deserves as a coach, but if you don't think right now we wouldn't be largely better as a team if you swap O'Reilly and Schenn out with Duchene and Ekholm, I don't know what to say... (I think Ekholm was Poile, but if I remember correctly, BT was helping him that season)

This is largely ignoring the use/handling of our young players, but I think all of that's been discussed already.

All that said, the players honestly don't look like they are playing for the "team", I know that's easy to say from my couch, but we've watched some bad teams over the years, but you could see they were usually giving a concerted effort. Not to mention, able to make/receive a pass with at least a little bit of acumen.

Sorry, I'm still frustrated even after that win. Was luck and Saros that we got that one.

I'll give you the Ekholm one, not sure Duchene makes that big of an impact if he is expected to be the top center here. Now Duchene vs Marchessault or Stamkos and you might have a good argument.

 

[triggrman]

Yeah I’d also take ROR over MD. Now if you also consider cap hits, well that changes things.

 

[herzausstein]

Considering we desperately need centers, i take RoR over MD all day, every day. Not saying MD is a bad player, he just isnt a center unless you are out of options.

Duchene vs Stamkos feels like a wash though

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Bruins start well below expectations and fire their coach.

The Perds?

 

[glenngineer]

And generally speaking, folks were surprised we picked Molendyk that high... he was rated a bit lower in the draft. Likely some other team out there had an eye on him too. But if we need to pick as high as #24 to get him, well, we also had the 2 2nds we used on Nilsson/Lind (and other stuff) which could conceivably have been packaged to move up, if our scouts loved Molendyk that much. It's not necessarily Only-By-Trading-Ekholm that we could have landed Molendyk, since he was considered a bit of a reach on draft day.

You're making the assumption that the 2 2nds would've allowed us to move up to select TM if we hadn't selected him at 24.

Much like we did with Surin this year, we picked a guy off the board because other teams were circling.

Do either of these picks turn out well? Only time will tell. Will guys selected shortly thereafter turn out better and we'll Monday morning QB them, possibly.

Remember the 2008 draft? We dealt the 15th overall pick to move down to 18th and select Pickard? If all else goes the same and we keep that pick, we end up with Wilson, Karlsson and Josi in that draft. That changes the trajectory of this franchise as we have chips to trade for assets that were needed.

Drafts and trades are always crapshoots. You win some, you lose some and other times you just shake your head. If the goals of moving out Ekholm and MD was to get younger and change the culture, we succeeded and failed at the same time. Not sure what we did more of and I wish we had kept along the trajectory of letting the young kids play. But that's an already beaten to death horse.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Considering we desperately need centers, i take RoR over MD all day, every day. Not saying MD is a bad player, he just isnt a center unless you are out of options.

Duchene vs Stamkos feels like a wash though

Duchene is playing center in Dallas and is over a point per game (albeit with an unsustainable shooting %) and a +9. Meanwhile, O'Reilly has been mediocre to bad for us this season. Dallas is a better team overall so that helps Duchene but he also isn't even on Dallas's first PP unit. I haven't watched a lot of the Stars so maybe those numbers are a mirage but at least based on the numbers it's incredibly hard to make the case O'Reilly has been better this season.

 

[Armourboy]

Duchene is playing center in Dallas and is over a point per game (albeit with an unsustainable shooting %) and a +9. Meanwhile, O'Reilly has been mediocre to bad for us this season. Dallas is a better team overall so that helps Duchene but he also isn't even on Dallas's first PP unit. I haven't watched a lot of the Stars so maybe those numbers are a mirage but at least based on the numbers it's incredibly hard to make the case O'Reilly has been better this season.

I watched Duchene enough at center to know that if anything is a mirage its what you are seeing in Dallas. It ain't like he didn't have the talent to play with here, he just was much better on the wing.

As far as this season goes that entire line he is playing with is doing well, and he's getting some PP time somewhere because 8 of his 21 pts are on the PP. We also don't know their useage really, they may be getting some pretty favorable conditions compared to what our top line is expected to get. Duchene is centering the 2nd line after all.

On the flipside almost no one on the Preds roster is playing well. He's pretty much had Forsberg all season, and he's probably been the best forward and even he has been hit and miss. The other forward tends to change every 15 minutes.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

You're making the assumption that the 2 2nds would've allowed us to move up to select TM if we hadn't selected him at 24.

No, I don’t think they would have, but they would have been very useful currency in the pursuit. We also may not have needed to move all the way up to 24 depending on which other team had Molendyk on their radar. Anyway, my only point is not to equate trading Ekholm as the ONLY way we could have landed Molendyk.

 

[beardawg]

Idk, I'm still fine with the Ekholm trade. Shaefer could be a solid bottom 6er (thinking Trenin-type) and Molendyk looks like a good pick so far. It made sense at the time and if anything, it helped break up the country club that everyone was complaining about. Don't lose your memory looking in the hindsight mirror

 

[Predsanddead24]

I watched Duchene enough at center to know that if anything is a mirage its what you are seeing in Dallas. It ain't like he didn't have the talent to play with here, he just was much better on the wing.

As far as this season goes that entire line he is playing with is doing well, and he's getting some PP time somewhere because 8 of his 21 pts are on the PP. We also don't know their useage really, they may be getting some pretty favorable conditions compared to what our top line is expected to get. Duchene is centering the 2nd line after all.

On the flipside almost no one on the Preds roster is playing well. He's pretty much had Forsberg all season, and he's probably been the best forward and even he has been hit and miss. The other forward tends to change every 15 minutes.

All that is a fair point to an extent but Duchene is doubling O’Reilly’s point production. Duchene is leading the Stars in both points and goals so it’s also hard for me to think he’s just a product of being lifted up by better players either. I just think it’s a pretty hard argument to make that O’Reilly is the better of the two this season.

Although maybe my more heretical take is that I don’t really get why O’Reilly rarely gets any criticism around here. Loved his game when he was with the Blues and while he was good last season his defensive play is well below what he did in St. Louis. And for all the talk about the leadership he brings he was a huge contributor to the collapse in Game 4 against Vancouver last year. Then he’s followed that up by being very meh this season. I get he should ideally be a 2C but that being the 1C also comes with perks like prime ice time and the best linemates and he’s not doing much with it. He’s far from our biggest problem but he also hasn’t been part of the solution either.

 

[Armourboy]

All that is a fair point to an extent but Duchene is doubling O’Reilly’s point production. Duchene is leading the Stars in both points and goals so it’s also hard for me to think he’s just a product of being lifted up by better players either. I just think it’s a pretty hard argument to make that O’Reilly is the better of the two this season.

Although maybe my more heretical take is that I don’t really get why O’Reilly rarely gets any criticism around here. Loved his game when he was with the Blues and while he was good last season his defensive play is well below what he did in St. Louis. And for all the talk about the leadership he brings he was a huge contributor to the collapse in Game 4 against Vancouver last year. Then he’s followed that up by being very meh this season. I get he should ideally be a 2C but that being the 1C also comes with perks like prime ice time and the best linemates and he’s not doing much with it. He’s far from our biggest problem but he also hasn’t been part of the solution either.

He's playing the same system everyone else is on this roster. Duchene is probably junk in it too.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

All that is a fair point to an extent but Duchene is doubling O’Reilly’s point production. Duchene is leading the Stars in both points and goals so it’s also hard for me to think he’s just a product of being lifted up by better players either. I just think it’s a pretty hard argument to make that O’Reilly is the better of the two this season.

Although maybe my more heretical take is that I don’t really get why O’Reilly rarely gets any criticism around here. Loved his game when he was with the Blues and while he was good last season his defensive play is well below what he did in St. Louis. And for all the talk about the leadership he brings he was a huge contributor to the collapse in Game 4 against Vancouver last year. Then he’s followed that up by being very meh this season. I get he should ideally be a 2C but that being the 1C also comes with perks like prime ice time and the best linemates and he’s not doing much with it. He’s far from our biggest problem but he also hasn’t been part of the solution either.

He probably shouldn't even be in the 2C. He should be the Sissons 3C and Sissons should be the Big Sexy 4C.

 

[bdub24]

Bruins start well below expectations and fire their coach.

The Perds?
View attachment 932836

When the country club culture is the front office and not the locker room….

 

[herzausstein]

Can we please not pretend that Duchene here would look anything like the Duchene on an absolutely loaded forward group that is Dallas?

WRT RoR... i believe it has been said several times around here that he is absolutely not an ideal 1C. Should be a 2C max but he is easily the best actual center currently with the team.