Nashville Predators Talk - 2024/2025 Season II

[Porter Stoutheart]

The Josi haters out in full force today again. 2nd, 1st and 1st on the team in 5on5 goal differential the 3 seasons prior to this one(+20, +17, +19) . But hey, that apparently doesn't actually help you win games. Tell us Porter, if outscoring the other team while on the ice doesn't help you win hockey games. what does? I'd love to hear who on this team is actually helping them win games then.

I definitely don't hate Josi, that's for sure. I love to watch him play. The last 3 seasons his combined even strength goal differential is exactly ZERO. 220 GF, 220 GA.

Not that that is the only way to contribute to winning or losing, mind you. He also scores on the PP. He also logs a lot of icetime - which could be "good" if you don't have other decent players to offload some of that icetime, or "bad" if you do. And there are intangible factors like the way the team over-relies on him on offense or has to adjust the way they play to accommodate him playing his own style of game. Maybe sometimes those help too.

All in all, without hating on Josi one bit, I stick by my statement: he's a very entertaining player to watch. I'm very glad to have watched most of his career games, very glad we've had him. He will deservedly get his statue beside Rinne's and be recognized as our all-time greatest player. And I can say all of that while still believing that for all that, he doesn't make a big difference to whether we ultimately win or lose more games. Oh sure, SOME games he helps us win, SOME he doesn't, SOME he hurts us. I'm just saying the net effect, or net-effect-above-replacement-with-a-different-style-top-pair-D is negligible.

And other than a couple of Saros' best seasons, there has been nobody on our team in the last several years who helps us win games, no. Nobody who contributes above-replacement-level for their role/icetime/Cap hit. And that is precisely why we have never had a championship team. If your whole roster is basically at the replacement-level mean (or this year below it), you aren't going to win.

 

[herzausstein]

In recent history its basically taken Josi having a Norris quality season for us to even be a bubble team. We may still not sniff the playoffs even with him but I see next to no chance we make it if he's out.

With him, just outside top 10 pick. Without him, top 10 pick.

 

[Predsanddead24]

All in all, without hating on Josi one bit, I stick by my statement: he's a very entertaining player to watch. I'm very glad to have watched most of his career games, very glad we've had him. He will deservedly get his statue beside Rinne's and be recognized as our all-time greatest player. And I can say all of that while still believing that for all that, he doesn't make a big difference to whether we ultimately win or lose more games. Oh sure, SOME games he helps us win, SOME he doesn't, SOME he hurts us. I'm just saying the net effect, or net-effect-above-replacement-with-a-different-style-top-pair-D is negligible.

This is a very strange way to define this argument. The option isn't to replace Josi with another top pair D. It's to replace him with some other D which will almost definitely not be top pairing quality.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is a very strange way to define this argument. The option isn't to replace Josi with another top pair D. It's to replace him with some other D which will almost definitely not be top pairing quality.

You don't think we would have gone out and signed (or retained) another top-pair D with $9M of extra Cap space? Of course we would have! And if Josi LTIRetires this off-season, we will replace him. (Not necessarily instantly, but within a year or two at least).

 

[Armourboy]

This is a very strange way to define this argument. The option isn't to replace Josi with another top pair D. It's to replace him with some other D which will almost definitely not be top pairing quality.

I mean you can't really say that because we have no clue who it would be. We would have plenty of cap and assets to get one.

The real issue is we have no business doing that in the first place. We should be in full rebuild mode regardless of Josi's status. No matter who is 1D this team is going nowhere.

 

[PredAlert]

I definitely don't hate Josi, that's for sure. I love to watch him play. The last 3 seasons his combined even strength goal differential is exactly ZERO. 220 GF, 220 GA.

View attachment 1004700

This stat includes all the empty netters for and against with the goalie pulled if there's no penalties. In no way is that "even strength hockey".

 

[herzausstein]

You don't think we would have gone out and signed (or retained) another top-pair D with $9M of extra Cap space? Of course we would have! And if Josi LTIRetires this off-season, we will replace him. (Not necessarily instantly, but within a year or two at least).

I don't think there is really anyone on the market that can replace Josi. Top UFA prize this season is probably Ekblad maybe? He's had injury issues and now in trouble for PEDs. Offseason after has Hughes and Makar but the odds they actually make it to UFA are slim. After them, it slims out quick with Girard, Zub, and Carrier. Nice complimentary dmen but no Josi. Best we can hope for at the moment is that one of Wilsby/Stastney/Molendyk blossom next season or two.

 

[Predsanddead24]

You don't think we would have gone out and signed (or retained) another top-pair D with $9M of extra Cap space? Of course we would have! And if Josi LTIRetires this off-season, we will replace him. (Not necessarily instantly, but within a year or two at least).

Yes because as we all know it's notoriously easy to find top pairing defenseman.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don't think there is really anyone on the market that can replace Josi. Top UFA prize this season is probably Ekblad maybe? He's had injury issues and now in trouble for PEDs. Offseason after has Hughes and Makar but the odds they actually make it to UFA are slim. After them, it slims out quick with Girard, Zub, and Carrier. Nice complimentary dmen but no Josi. Best we can hope for at the moment is that one of Wilsby/Stastney/Molendyk blossom next season or two.

This is why I don’t think we should pass on Schaefer if he is available. We need 1d going forward.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I'd much rather see Josi paired with a capable stay at home defender who allows him to play to his strengths in a system that compliments him. What would have been really cool is if we had one homegrown, who had a history of doing just that, and we actually used him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think there is really anyone on the market that can replace Josi. Top UFA prize this season is probably Ekblad maybe? He's had injury issues and now in trouble for PEDs. Offseason after has Hughes and Makar but the odds they actually make it to UFA are slim. After them, it slims out quick with Girard, Zub, and Carrier. Nice complimentary dmen but no Josi. Best we can hope for at the moment is that one of Wilsby/Stastney/Molendyk blossom next season or two.

Like I said it could take a year or two. But I definitely don't mean you need to replace him with exactly the same kind of player. Even today, Skjei and some scrubs playing more minutes isn't giving us hugely different results, nor did Ekholm in past years. Sure, sign Ekblad, Provorov, Orlov, Gavrikov, or split it over a couple years, pick up Andersson, wait to see who else blossoms or becomes available, etc. It's the same as when we have lost Josi to injury, he IS replaceable. We have done it for shorter stretches, and we could do it for longer stretches too either by signing or trading for players using that Cap space. Boston is blowing things up, they have some D there, etc. I don't think improving a team defense corps should be considered a totally impossible feat if you have $27M to spend, which we would if Josi was out of the picture.

Now all that said, there is a parallel argument if you're really entering a rebuild that says don't even bother right now, which I can definitely understand too. I don't think signing those replacement players automatically makes us a BETTER team, remember. It just means we have guys who can cumulatively log the same net-zero minutes in the current environment as Josi. But that by itself doesn't move us closer (or further) from winning games. We'd need more changes elsewhere to actually win more games. And if we're not planning to make those other changes too, then we might just as well sit around and collect our draft picks and bide our time, with or without Josi.

I'm assuming Josi will be back, and none of this matters, btw. Which I'm fully content with. I'm just surprised people think he's THAT big a factor. I'd say the same about Forsberg or basically any other player we've had here, fwiw. We simply have never had that irreplaceable superstar-level of player.

 

[herzausstein]

This is why I don’t think we should pass on Schaefer if he is available. We need 1d going forward.

It is reasonable to pick Schaefer if he falls to us at 3rd OVA. If Misa is available when we pick, I'd still prefer him to Schaefer. I want that unicorn of a 1C that we have never managed to draft. We have gotten lucky with 1D outside of top of the draft picks. We haven't gotten lucky with 1C

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

So Fabbro is the equivalent of Josi when he was outplaying Weber . I want to see Fabbro do well but there is just no metric where I see him top 4 on a defensive team like we are accustomed to too. Yeah I'm spoiled from all the successful defensive years they have had. I mean we saw Josi, Ekholm, Ellis, Weber and others Hamhuis anchor the D for years. Stats can be good or bad but how often have players had good stats be just mediocre or bad. Look at Stamkos until he changed sweaters he ALWAYS had strong stats but he has looked pretty bad in Nashville. Or how About PK Subban his stats were pretty good in Montreal even a Norris comes here has one decent year then was just garbage. Duchene had good stats in Colorado comes here could not consistently meet those number then goes elsewhere and his numbers jump back. Now it's either stats are not always true or the Nashville organization has been a farce all along. Our expectations have been so low for so long we hold mediocre players in high standard. How about Tomasino he was the next coming for some but he has all but folded up after leaving here. He was anointed to be a top 6 player by many here. I am more critical than most here on players for sure but I am not going overpump players just because they are hometown guys.

The more I watch Blakberg spelling not right I know but I like him more. I think he is more rounded than Fabbro but will he stick I just don't know. Compared to the rest of the young player I think his chances are good. Most of these inexperienced players there not all young but most will not stick even next year.

Yeah, Fabbro is certainly a top-4 on most teams in the league (assuming his play over the past few months continues). The fact that Trotz gave him away for free because he "thought he'd clear" is completely unforgivable. Especially now that our defense is so bad.

 

[herzausstein]

Like I said it could take a year or two. But I definitely don't mean you need to replace him with exactly the same kind of player. Even today, Skjei and some scrubs playing more minutes isn't giving us hugely different results, nor did Ekholm in past years. Sure, sign Ekblad, Provorov, Orlov, Gavrikov, or split it over a couple years, pick up Andersson, wait to see who else blossoms or becomes available, etc. It's the same as when we have lost Josi to injury, he IS replaceable. We have done it for shorter stretches, and we could do it for longer stretches too either by signing or trading for players using that Cap space. Boston is blowing things up, they have some D there, etc. I don't think improving a team defense corps should be considered a totally impossible feat if you have $27M to spend, which we would if Josi was out of the picture.

Now all that said, there is a parallel argument if you're really entering a rebuild that says don't even bother right now, which I can definitely understand too. I don't think signing those replacement players automatically makes us a BETTER team, remember. It just means we have guys who can cumulatively log the same net-zero minutes in the current environment as Josi. But that by itself doesn't move us closer (or further) from winning games. We'd need more changes elsewhere to actually win more games. And if we're not planning to make those other changes too, then we might just as well sit around and collect our draft picks and bide our time, with or without Josi.

I'm assuming Josi will be back, and none of this matters, btw. Which I'm fully content with. I'm just surprised people think he's THAT big a factor. I'd say the same about Forsberg or basically any other player we've had here, fwiw. We simply have never had that irreplaceable superstar-level of player.

If josi is back, I wouldn't mind picking up someone like Gavrikov. Larger, younger, and i think his game can mesh with Josi. If Josi is out, I don't really see a point. Anyone we grab would at max get us back to where we were with Josi which is just not good enough. At that point, let skjei head up the d group and begin transitioning to the next wave of dmen. Maybe keep Lauzon for vet depth and chuck him off at the deadline and keep englund around as 7th dman and big guy replacement after lauzon is gone

 

[Scoresberg]

I mean obviously Josi isn't what he used to be anymore but he is still VERY good. I do think he needs more help nowadays especially on the defensive side of things which is why I think the biggest reason he struggled this year (and to only blame Josi for this downfall is just asinine) was that he didn't have that steady partner beside him. Makar has his Toews, Werenski has Fabbro and Hughes has Hronek. All solid, defensive defenseman who allow their d partners to be essentially 4th forwards.

I mean, just last season when Josi and McDonagh were together they had 29 GF and 15 GA. With Fabbro, the numbers were 32 and 22, respectively.

For sure, you can float around for a shorter period of time with having Blankenburg as your top guy, but for an 82-game marathon you might have another thing coming.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If josi is back, I wouldn't mind picking up someone like Gavrikov. Larger, younger, and i think his game can mesh with Josi. If Josi is out, I don't really see a point. Anyone we grab would at max get us back to where we were with Josi which is just not good enough. At that point, let skjei head up the d group and begin transitioning to the next wave of dmen. Maybe keep Lauzon for vet depth and chuck him off at the deadline and keep englund around as 7th dman and big guy replacement after lauzon is gone

The problem with guys like Gavrikov is of course going to be the sticker shock. Another guy about to turn 30, and he'd get an even bigger contract than Skjei, another NMC, etc. So even though we could chase that guy, I'd want to see it come along with a host of other changes as well (starting with the new HC), and I just don't see enough of that being likely to take on that contract, alas.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I'd much rather see Josi paired with a capable stay at home defender who allows him to play to his strengths in a system that compliments him. What would have been really cool is if we had one homegrown, who had a history of doing just that, and we actually used him.

Playing to Josi's strengths increasingly seems to mean making compromises elsewhere in getting the most out of other players. You can't get the most out of your PP trigger man in Stamkos, for instance, when Josi is usually looking to be the first option on that unit and when with the puck.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It is reasonable to pick Schaefer if he falls to us at 3rd OVA. If Misa is available when we pick, I'd still prefer him to Schaefer. I want that unicorn of a 1C that we have never managed to draft. We have gotten lucky with 1D outside of top of the draft picks. We haven't gotten lucky with 1C

Yeah, nobody here is arguing against picking Schaefer #3, of course. I don't think there's any doubt whatsoever he goes #1 in this draft. So the only time we should bother arguing about picking him is after we win the Draft Lottery.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Playing to Josi's strengths increasingly seems to mean making compromises elsewhere in getting the most out of other players. You can't get the most out of your PP trigger man in Stamkos, for instance, when Josi is usually looking to be the first option on that unit and when with the puck.

Well, I will say, there are a lot of good PP defenders that have played well with a one timer type guys. It doesn't have to be an either-or situation. The system is absolutely dog shit in all areas. I think that's the part most of us on here have all accepted but then we forget when we are discussing our frustrations amongst ourselves. It's honestly even hard to evaluate a player under Bruno at this point.

 

[herzausstein]

Yeah, nobody here is arguing against picking Schaefer #3, of course. I don't think there's any doubt whatsoever he goes #1 in this draft. So the only time we should bother arguing about picking him is after we win the Draft Lottery.

Hopefully sjs get first overall and we get moved up for 2nd

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Well, I will say, there are a lot of good PP defenders that have played well with a one timer type guys. It doesn't have to be an either-or situation. The system is absolutely dog shit in all areas. I think that's the part most of us on here have all accepted but then we forget when we are discussing our frustrations amongst ourselves. It's honestly even hard to evaluate a player under Bruno at this point.

The current system is shit, for sure, but these are also trends that go across multiple systems and coaches--our forwards, for years, have probably been stifled on the PP and scoring in general because of how just how much of our offense has gone through Josi (and other defenders previously). It's not necessarily an either/or, but there are tradeoffs, for sure. The system needs to change, but we also need Josi to change a bit.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Hopefully sjs get first overall and we get moved up for 2nd

I would almost say let's not blow one of our 2 lotto wins on getting #2... except who am I kidding, like we'd ever win twice anyway. Maybe it's more of a karmic thing... save our good lottery karma to win the #1 pick next year? Never mind, let's win #2 and at least save ourselves the angst of arguing about who to pick at #1, sure.

I wonder if we here have a consensus on Misa at #2 yet?

These types of questions all mean we're going to end up picking #5 of course.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I would almost say let's not blow one of our 2 lotto wins on getting #2... except who am I kidding, like we'd ever win twice anyway. Maybe it's more of a karmic thing... save our good lottery karma to win the #1 pick next year? Never mind, let's win #2 and at least save ourselves the angst of arguing about who to pick at #1, sure.

I wonder if we here have a consensus on Misa at #2 yet?

These types of questions all mean we're going to end up picking #5 of course.

I am about 90% Misa at 2. He’s a heckuva player, but Frondell has been fantastic against men. I’m eager to see how he does at u18 before I rule him out.

 

[Armourboy]

The current system is shit, for sure, but these are also trends that go across multiple systems and coaches--our forwards, for years, have probably been stifled on the PP and scoring in general because of how just how much of our offense has gone through Josi (and other defenders previously). It's not necessarily an either/or, but there are tradeoffs, for sure. The system needs to change, but we also need Josi to change a bit.

Yep think you and have said it for years, Josi has been the biggest issue with our PP going on for 3 coaches now. The issue is that Josi is at his best when he is skating and using that to make plays. He doesn't do that on the PP, he has his spot, and so its just an unnatural position for him so what it leads too is him holding the puck to see if there is a play to make. On the PP if you are looking for a play to make you've already lost the opportunity.

The reason all of that is a problem is because he was always the guy at the top, so that meant whenever the puck comes around it is going to go through his hands, which means it is going to stop and break all the momentum and opportunity gained from that movement.

I think at the start of the season that is why they were moving him and trying to use him on the halfwall. That way he is either starting the play, or ending it with a shot, but he wasn't the guy in the middle moving it. Now it didn't end up working because it created another problem, it took Forsbergs shot away and his ability to get passes across ice.

And before someone says it its not Josi hate, its just an observation made since the start of his career.

 

[glenngineer]

You don’t go out and replace a guy like Josi who’s been a top 5 defenseman in the league for the last 7 or so years. You just don’t.

You know why he’s played the way he has, because our forwards didn’t score enough so he did everything in his power to generate offense. Did it backfire on occasion, sure. At the same time, it sure generated a lot of chances and scores.

For the longest time, our D scored a ton of points. This has slowly gone away and with that, our team has gotten worse because that scoring covered up our shortcomings up front.

Hope we land a 1C this year. Hope Molendyk can turn into the next Josi. Hope Annunen can become the next big thing. Hope some of younger talent can develop and provide decent depth scoring and play. Maybe we suck again next year and have a shot at some more top end talent and if so, we’re one piece closer to getting better.