Nashville Predators Talk - 2024/2025 Season II

The thing is, the team has had bad puck luck. I know some of y'all don't like "advanced" stats but the team's PDO for example is not just low but extraordinarily low, lowest in the league and one of the lowest in recent years. This is mostly because the team is shooting under 7% which is also probably an unsustainably low number. I'm not saying it's all puck luck, shooting ability is a real thing too, but NHL teams simply don't historically shoot those low %s consistently.

Anyway, that is to say that the team probably will be better next year, absent really steep declines from the older players (which is possible). But the problem is, that improvement to the mean of their underlying numbers still just puts them.. right back into the mushy middle.
 
The thing is, the team has had bad puck luck. I know some of y'all don't like "advanced" stats but the team's PDO for example is not just low but extraordinarily low, lowest in the league and one of the lowest in recent years. This is mostly because the team is shooting under 7% which is also probably an unsustainably low number. I'm not saying it's all puck luck, shooting ability is a real thing too, but NHL teams simply don't historically shoot those low %s consistently.

Anyway, that is to say that the team probably will be better next year, absent really steep declines from the older players (which is possible). But the problem is, that improvement to the mean of their underlying numbers still just puts them.. right back into the mushy middle.
Bad puck luck for 73 games???? Not buying it. If it was a 15-20 game stretch I might agree with you. If something is this consistent for an entire season it has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with systemic problems.
 
Bad puck luck for 73 games???? Not buying it. If it was a 15-20 game stretch I might agree with you. If something is this consistent for an entire season it has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with systemic problems.
I’m not saying that’s the only factor. All of this has to be taken in context. For example, the Preds play from behind a lot. That leads to other teams playing more defensively and pucks thrown at the net from less dangerous areas, which I’m sure is part of the story. Nonetheless, history suggests teams don’t shoot this poorly multiple seasons on end. The opposite is true too- look at Vancouver this year vs. last year.
 
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To people's point about playing certain guys more minutes over the kids - I'm watching the replay from last night and we're down 1 with 3 minutes to go and we're icing McCarron, Smith and ZLH. I have no problem with ZLH out there, but the other two, this in a nutshell is our problem. You need a goal late, put out your best forwards who give you a shot at winning.

There was one other comment last night that struck me. Vegas has a guy who has 20 goals playing on their fourth line. McCarron and Smith have a combined 22 points. Once again, this in a nutshell is a huge issue.
 
I mean, what do you expect from this coach really? He was still giving his regular 17+mins a night to Nyquist until the day he left even though he clearly had no future here and was producing absolutely nothing but empty net points(something like 2 goals on a goalie in the last 40+ games here which he's extending in Minnesota, probably close to 60). Didn't move him off the PP and was still putting him out there with the goalie pulled instead of giving Svechkov, Evangelista, Novak etc. a chance. Basically, anyone with a future here that still has room for improvement.

And prepare yourself for much of the same with Bunting as well. Trotz claims he sacrificed a 2nd to get an "upgrade" on Novak with "sandpaper". He's gonna be desperate to justify it now so he's keeping his yes-man behind the bench to do just that.
 
We've never really done that, at least not as cut throat as Vegas anyways. Loyalty to the organization was a pretty big thing Poile would reward, of course he would move you out pretty quick too if he wasn't getting that from players as well.

That said if Poile thought a move was definitely going to make the team better he would move you in a heartbeat, example being trading Weber for Subban.

I think Trotz's biggest issue is he is still thinking too much like a coach. He makes moves based on how he would view it if he was coaching, what he wished GM's would have done for him when he was a coach. Sometimes as a coach you need to be saved from yourself because they have a tendency to play favorites and you get guys playing way more minutes or in spots they shouldn't be because of it. Good example there would be Lavi and Jarnkrok.
I’ve said Preds need a new coach. I’ve said the same things others have said about line combo confusion, player ice time for the kids, D pairs, etc, etc. And what I’ve said laid all the associated problems at the coaches feet.
But I have begun to believe that I don’t know if he’s a bad coach or not. What I’ve come to believe is that Trotz micro manages the coach to such an extent that he designates the line combos, player ice time, etc.
 
I’ve said Preds need a new coach. I’ve said the same things others have said about line combo confusion, player ice time for the kids, D pairs, etc, etc. And what I’ve said laid all the associated problems at the coaches feet.
But I have begun to believe that I don’t know if he’s a bad coach or not. What I’ve come to believe is that Trotz micro manages the coach to such an extent that he designates the line combos, player ice time, etc.
I think the problem is the exact opposite, Trotz probably doesn't manage him enough. The reason I say that is I think that Trotz is trying so hard not to be a thorn in Brunette's side that he isn't sticking his nose into things he actually should be. I think that is the reason you are seeing Brunette continue to stack Vet lines, he is still trying to win games like it matters rather than trying to develop. Probably deep down its because he wants to show promise because he is afraid he might lose his job, but I think that is the very thing that might cost him his job.

It's not a matter of over management, its actually a lack of it. Trotz is trying to run things like he wishes they had been when he was a coach rather than just making the right decisions as a GM.
 
I think the problem is the exact opposite, Trotz probably doesn't manage him enough. The reason I say that is I think that Trotz is trying so hard not to be a thorn in Brunette's side that he isn't sticking his nose into things he actually should be. I think that is the reason you are seeing Brunette continue to stack Vet lines, he is still trying to win games like it matters rather than trying to develop. Probably deep down its because he wants to show promise because he is afraid he might lose his job, but I think that is the very thing that might cost him his job.

It's not a matter of over management, its actually a lack of it. Trotz is trying to run things like he wishes they had been when he was a coach rather than just making the right decisions as a GM.
Agreed.

It's not clear Trotz actually knows how to run things like a GM. Unless you think riding around the building on Poile's coattails for a couple months was sufficient to get completely up to speed.
 
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Agreed.

It's not clear Trotz actually knows how to run things like a GM. Unless you think riding around the building on Poile's coattails for a couple months was sufficient to get completely up to speed.
I think this is absolutely the pivotal question for Trotz.

I think he came into this job thinking "ZOMG! I am SOOOO much smarter than all those pesky GMs who held me back when I was a coach. But despite them, I was still THE BEST COACH EVER." And now he's going to bring that perspective into being "THE BEST GM EVER".

Without realizing those GMs also helped actually make him such a successful coach.

Can he pivot? We have not seen any signs of it yet. :crossfing
 
I think Bruno thinks he can just install a new system and let the players play.

The 2 problems I think he has is:

1. His system is too complicated, players struggle with assignments, and this part is obvious. His system focuses too much on possesion and not enough on creating actual scoring chances. Defensively I think we over pursue the puck, which is what good offensive systems want you to do, we constantly give up odd man situations down low because of blown assignments.

2. He has no feel for match-ups. Neither Craig Smith nor McCarron are a young Colton Sissons. Yet he keeps putting them in those type enviroments. Rarely do we see Forsberg exposing a 4th line, and rarely do we see instant chemistry with a line shakeup, which kind of goes back to reason 1.
 
Tonight is an important game in the race to the bottom. Your 30th overall Nashville predators face off against the 27th overall Philadelphia Flyers.

Key Stats:
Nashville comes into tonight sitting at 62 points and 9 games remaining in their schedule and are going into tonight on a 2 game loss streak.

Philly comes into tonight sitting at 67 points with 7 games remaining and in the midst of a 2 game win streak on the back of a coaching change.

A regulation loss tonight will help to push the Flyers to a massive 71 points and make it near impossible for Nashville to surpass. It will also maintain a 6 point gap between Nashville and Seattle/Buffalo.

On paper, this is Nashville's easiest remaining opponent. All other teams Nashville faces (except Utah) still have playoff dreams. Utah may be out of the hunt for this year but they sit at 78 points and didn't have their dreams crushed a month ago so the realization might not of set in yet as they are 5-4-1 in their last 10.
 

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