Prospect Info: My Top 20 Hab Prospects List (Updated #538)

[ChesterNimitz]

Demidov
Reinbacher
Hutson
Cole Eiserman
Fowler
Beck
Mailloux
Volokhin
Farrell
Mesar
Engstrom
Heineman

I think Florian Xhekaj has more upside than Farrell, Mesar, and Heineman. And after this upcoming training camp, it would not surprise me if Florian passes Beck on our depth chart of forward prospects.

 

[Tanknation]

I think Florian Xhekaj has more upside than Farrell, Mesar, and Heineman. And after this upcoming training camp, it would not surprise me if Florian passes Beck on our depth chart of forward prospects.

Bold statement. I dont agree with passing Beck. But anything can happen for sure.

 

[OldCraig71]

I read this thread last night and it became much clearer why we had to rebuild. Our drafting and development were crap during most of the Bergevin era/prison sentence.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Bold statement. I dont agree with passing Beck. But anything can happen for sure.

After watching hockey for almost 70 years and being directly involved in the supervision and development of elite draft eligible hockey players for the past decade I can say with a degree of certainty that except in the rarest of cases there is nothing more certain than the uncertainty of a youthful player’s rate and extent of development.

No one has that long sought after crystal ball. Not this writer. Not Hughes. It's all based on reasonably developed and considered projections.

An exercise, over the years, that I have found to be very useful in my efforts to assess the potential of any of our young prospects/players was to ask what the current market value of such considered prospects/players was. Ask yourself: Today, which of our prospects or players under the age of 22 could, by themselves, on the open market, in a trade of this player, garner a first round choice in the upcoming draft? I think we would all agree that if traded, Slafkovsky would get us a pick in the top 5, if not, even Celebrini, in return. Reinbacher and Hutson should easily allow us to secure a first round choice in the top 20 or even higher.

But what about Mesar? Mailloux? Harris? Beck? Roy? Primeau? or Struble? When one goes through this instructive exercise you quickly realize that many of our heralded young prospects/players may not have the market value or the upside as we had thought or hoped for.

As for Florian, I have written that when I first started to follow him this past year I was completely surprised by this relatively unknown player's skill level. He showed well above average straightforward speed, offensive vision and skills that allowed him to play on his team's number one power play unit while playing a controlled physical game. What sold me on this kid's upside was his ability to compete and play an impactful role in his few AHL games. He did what I look for in any young prospect: the skating ability to create separation that allows the player to use his skills and the vision to take advantage of those skills.

As I noted, like many young players, he needs to add quickness to his game. But if he does, the younger Xhekaj will literally jump up our depth chart of forward prospects. His combination of size and skill presents a tantalizing foretelling of his potential. He needs to get stronger and heavier. Hopefully such an increase in size will not serve to adversely affect his mobility.

This kid is no mere 'dime a dozen' enforcer . He has the potential to be a core player for this team going forward. And how many of our other young forwards can we realistically say that about?

 

[HuGort]

We would have to trade up to the 12-15 range I think would land him.

Would you trade Matheson to do this?

 

[Tanknation]

Would you trade Matheson to do this?

 

[FrankMTL]

Speaking of Xhekaj, we often talk about how growth spurts can affect a players coordination etc (Sennecke) but we can't forget that Florian did grow a ton in the last few years. He was only 5 foot 9 at the age of 15 and he was 6 foot 4 at 19 years old. Tough to get your bearings when you grow that fast.

It's very encouraging how quickly he has progressed and the skills he has shown (That most of us didn't even know he had).

I think by the end of next season it will be a no brainer that he's an important part of our future forward core, in whatever capacity that ends up being.

 

[montreal]

After watching hockey for almost 70 years and being directly involved in the supervision and development of elite draft eligible hockey players for the past decade I can say with a degree of certainty that except in the rarest of cases there is nothing more certain than the uncertainty of a youthful player’s rate and extent of development.

No one has that long sought after crystal ball. Not this writer. Not Hughes. It's all based on reasonably developed and considered projections.

An exercise, over the years, that I have found to be very useful in my efforts to assess the potential of any of our young prospects/players was to ask what the current market value of such considered prospects/players was. Ask yourself: Today, which of our prospects or players under the age of 22 could, by themselves, could on the open market, in a trade, garner a first round choice in the upcoming draft? I think we would all agree that if traded, Slafkovsky would get us a pick in the top 5, if not, even Celebrini, in return. Reinbacher and Hutson should easily allow us to secure a first round choice in the top 20 or even higher.

But what about Mesar? Mailloux? Harris? Beck? Roy? Primeau? or Struble? When one goes through this instructive exercise you quickly realize that many of our heralded young prospects/players may not have the market value or the upside as we had thought or hoped for.

As for Florian, I have written that when I first started to follow him this past year I was completely surprised by this relatively unknown player's skill level. He showed well above average straightforward speed, offensive vision and skills that allowed him to play on his team's number one power play unit while playing a controlled physical game. What sold me on this kid's upside was his ability to compete and play an impactful role in his few AHL games. He did what I look for in any young prospect: the skating ability to create separation that allows the player to use his skills and the vision to take advantage of those skills.

As I noted, like many young players, he needs to add quickness to his game. But if he does, the younger Xhekaj will literally jump up our depth chart of forward prospects. His combination of size and skill presents a tantalizing foretelling of his potential. He needs to get stronger and heavier. Hopefully such an increase in size will not serve to adversely affect his mobility.

This kid is no mere 'dime a dozen' enforcer . He has the potential to be a core player for this team going forward. And how many of our other young forwards can we realistically say that about?

well said!

Speaking of Xhekaj, we often talk about how growth spurts can affect a players coordination etc (Sennecke) but we can't forget that Florian did grow a ton in the last few years. He was only 5 foot 9 at the age of 15 and he was 6 foot 4 at 19 years old. Tough to get your bearings when you grow that fast.

It's very encouraging how quickly he has progressed and the skills he has shown (That most of us didn't even know he had).

I think by the end of next season it will be a no brainer that he's an important part of our future forward core, in whatever capacity that ends up being.

With prospects it's always about progress or lack of, so that's why at HF I usually dismiss most opinions as trying to project what a kid might be able to do in the NHL 5 years from now is not easy and imo on average it takes a lot of time and energy to form valid opinions and even then there are so many factors and variables that we don't have access to so how could we really know much? Who has the kind of time to watch so many games if they aren't being paid to.

Of course if you read the study that was done on the results of the NHL draft over a 12 year period, if you want to look smart just bad mouth most non top 21 picks and odds are greatly in your favor of being right most of the time or a lot.

To me it's just about watching them from the start of the year to the end and seeing how it goes and then repeating that the next season. If Xhekaj continues to progress like he has so far then holy shit, but if not he's going to be an NHLer as he's got a decent amount of skill to go with such a nasty game that in time he's going to get looks in the NHL. How much can he progress now is the big question.

 

[montreal]

Some quick thoughts on each prospect,

Hutson - Some will doubt him and soon enough we are going to see what he can do at the pro level. The Habs future badly rests on his ability to be as close as possible to a Adam Fox, if he can then we are in business but until they find someone to replace Markov they will never get anywhere imo.

I think his defense isn't bad it's just that he's limited by his physical shortcomings. He will likely need a Guhle type of partner. I used to think Reinbacher but Guhle is better defensively. With his lack of height, weight, strength, he's likely always going to struggle with the physical aspects of playing defense. He will need to use his smarts to block passing lanes with his stick and positioning but no matter what he's going to need help for sure. That said no one does what he does on offense, no one. Not Hughes, Fox, Buium, I have never seen anyone do what he does as a blueliner so trying to project that is very tough. I won't bet against him.

Mailloux - I have him so high because he could be tall Caufield on the blueline. What does Mailloux do best? Score goals. It's his shot combined with his physical tools, that allow him to be a solid offensive blueliner. It's the lack of IQ and some poor decisions in his own end that will get him into trouble. Much like Hutson he's more of a boom or bust type that will need a Guhle like D partner to help overcome his defensive issues. But it's hard not to get excited when you have a kid that's missed so much development time but showed he could score goals and has the mix of height, reach, skating, mobility, that will help him in the NHL for sure if coaches can live with his mistakes and he can produce enough to do so.

Reinbacher - I didn't want the pick, I didn't like the pick and I thought he had one of the worst D+1's I've ever seen for a Hab 1st rounder but in the end that doesn't matter much as it's all about how much can he progress or not. With his size, skating, mobility, two way game, he's going to be an NHLer at some point, just does too many things well enough, but it's impossible to say how good will he end up.

When I saw Makar's 1st season in the NCAA I thought he was not very impressive at all. Just did not see the hype. He opted to return for his Sophomore season and he has since said that's where things really took off for him. Once you get that confidence and can build off it, no telling where it can lead you. So in 5-10 years if Reinbacher is one of the best D in the NHL, would I be shocked, yes but not totally surprised. Do I think he has that kind of upside, not from what i've seen this year but again that could just have been due to him adjusting to the big leap in size. We'll see what happens but I do not think he is going to be close to a shut down D like some think. His defensive game to me needs a good bit of work but I like how he's aggressive in both ends.

Engstrom - I didn't get to see much of him this year, I saw more of him last year but have always liked what I saw and found him to be more impressive then Reinbacher at last summers camp. To me he does most things really well nothing great. So I suspect he'll be one of those D that can play anywhere in any situation. I don't think the offense is that great but should be good and his defense looks good but he needs to add mass and strength still so we'll see how it goes on the small ice. He's one of the prospects i'm most excited to see next season.

Volokhin - I stink with goalies, Russians certainly seem to be doing a great job with this position though so if I was a betting man I would certainly be looking at Volokhin as he's got the size and seems to move quickly in net but unlike Dobes he doesn't overcommit.

Fowler - Guy just wins. We'll see about the size, if it's an issue or not. Next year should be interesting for him as to me I would say BC likely had the best blueline in the NCAA, at least half of them are gone so how things play out there could be telling. I've heard it said BC is considered to have one of the best goalie coaches in the league.

Beck - In a way he reminds me of Engstrom in that he just seems to do everything well but aside from face-offs I'm not sure he does anything great. Love the release on the shot but it needs more work. To me he's one of the easiest locks to be an NHLer in our system, just a slam dunk he will play in the NHL but how good will he be is the question. I don't expect too much but I really like his game so he could surprise. Hope they don't rush him to the NHL.

Konyushkov - Really liked what I saw from him, he's undersized but reminds me a little of Svboda when he has the puck, really solid offensively. His defense in the KHL is good but if he were say if it were possible to play in the NHL next season, that he would face similar problems that Jordan Harris faces as they have similar body types. But he has 3 years to fill out some and then we'll see. Like Engstrom, Volokhin and Xhekaj, I really am impressed with the scouts finding them and getting them picked, no matter what happens I like the approach here.

Xhekaj - One of the most impressive jumps from Draft to D+1 I have ever seen, he's a beast that plays a nasty power game but has some decent hands, he will score goals in the NHL. He'll be someone you can put on the 2nd PP unit to stand in the crease, he gives goalies fits and it very difficult to move. He's shown good hand to eye to tip pucks and knock in rebounds. I don't know if he'll be a 4th line or in 5 years we look back and say how criminally underrated he was but what I do know is wherever he plays he will be a fan favorite.

Farrell - Injuries didn't help matters but it's clear that this season he just was not quick enough, too small and the strength/skating need more work. But he's so smart, vision, playmaking are elite imo or close to it. Just a question of can he improve on the speed/skating/strength cause players his size just can't be on the slow side in the NHL.

Kapanen - we'll see what happens, the little i've seen I haven't been overly impressed but I liked early on this year that the skating looked improved. He had a rough 1st half and a outstanding 2nd half so we'll see what the SHL brings.
Mesar - I have been hard on him, not a big fan but I do love how he can handle the puck with speed carrying it into the zone and his vision/playmaking like Farrell are elite or close enough. I don't care for the rest of his game but he showed a lot better effort in the playoffs. Next season should be interesting for sure one way or the other for him.

Dobes - Always liked him since I starting watching him in the USHL, such a fun goalie prospect, what a year he had, great to see him turn things around and have a big year after a tough start. Hope they keep working with him and get him to stop overcommitting.

Heineman - I was a lot higher on him but he struggled with consistency and injuries have been an issue. I like his game though, he battles, will take the body, really good speed, decent shot. Having guys like Heineman, Kapanen, Tuch, Beck, Xhekaj, you got what could be several NHL/bubble NHLers over the next two or so years that bring something that the Habs have been lacking.

Tuch - Good size, speed, needs to figure out what he wants to be, as his physical game is inconsistent and he hasn't shown enough offense yet to be more then a bottom liner in the NHL.

Trudeau - Good size, skating, mobility, decent offensive skills but poor decisions in his own end.

Davidson - needs to work on speed/skating but I like his game, works hard, good shot, physical.

Eriksson - Didn't get to see much of him, wasn't overly impressed when I did but looking forward to seeing him in the SHL.

Simoneau - If only he wasn't 5'7 and was quicker/better skater. Love the way he plays, heart and soul type.

Kostenko - Have liked his offensive game, didn't get to see too much of him but someone to keep an eye on imo.

Kidney - Disappointing season, he is easily outmatched physically, just seems to have no strength at all, undersized, not quick either. Thought he should have been in 3R but hopefully he has a big off-season.

Pitlick - I like the speed/skating, think he could end up a bit like Byron but doubtful he would be close to being that good. Has shown decent progress year over year at Minnesota, his coach is Poehling's former coach, likely a top 10 or 15 coach in the league imo.

Rohrer - I thought it was close between him and Guindon, I liked Guindon a little more but he didn't progress and now we'll see with Rohrer who I liked a bit but man is he small.

 

[Tanknation]

Some quick thoughts on each prospect,

Hutson - Some will doubt him and soon enough we are going to see what he can do at the pro level. The Habs future badly rests on his ability to be as close as possible to a Adam Fox, if he can then we are in business but until they find someone to replace Markov they will never get anywhere imo.

I think his defense isn't bad it's just that he's limited by his physical shortcomings. He will likely need a Guhle type of partner. I used to think Reinbacher but Guhle is better defensively. With his lack of height, weight, strength, he's likely always going to struggle with the physical aspects of playing defense. He will need to use his smarts to block passing lanes with his stick and positioning but no matter what he's going to need help for sure. That said no one does what he does on offense, no one. Not Hughes, Fox, Buium, I have never seen anyone do what he does as a blueliner so trying to project that is very tough. I won't bet against him.

Mailloux - I have him so high because he could be tall Caufield on the blueline. What does Mailloux do best? Score goals. It's his shot combined with his physical tools, that allow him to be a solid offensive blueliner. It's the lack of IQ and some poor decisions in his own end that will get him into trouble. Much like Hutson he's more of a boom or bust type that will need a Guhle like D partner to help overcome his defensive issues. But it's hard not to get excited when you have a kid that's missed so much development time but showed he could score goals and has the mix of height, reach, skating, mobility, that will help him in the NHL for sure if coaches can live with his mistakes and he can produce enough to do so.

Reinbacher - I didn't want the pick, I didn't like the pick and I thought he had one of the worst D+1's I've ever seen for a Hab 1st rounder but in the end that doesn't matter much as it's all about how much can he progress or not. With his size, skating, mobility, two way game, he's going to be an NHLer at some point, just does too many things well enough, but it's impossible to say how good will he end up.

When I saw Makar's 1st season in the NCAA I thought he was not very impressive at all. Just did not see the hype. He opted to return for his Sophomore season and he has since said that's where things really took off for him. Once you get that confidence and can build off it, no telling where it can lead you. So in 5-10 years if Reinbacher is one of the best D in the NHL, would I be shocked, yes but not totally surprised. Do I think he has that kind of upside, not from what i've seen this year but again that could just have been due to him adjusting to the big leap in size. We'll see what happens but I do not think he is going to be close to a shut down D like some think. His defensive game to me needs a good bit of work but I like how he's aggressive in both ends.

Engstrom - I didn't get to see much of him this year, I saw more of him last year but have always liked what I saw and found him to be more impressive then Reinbacher at last summers camp. To me he does most things really well nothing great. So I suspect he'll be one of those D that can play anywhere in any situation. I don't think the offense is that great but should be good and his defense looks good but he needs to add mass and strength still so we'll see how it goes on the small ice. He's one of the prospects i'm most excited to see next season.

Volokhin - I stink with goalies, Russians certainly seem to be doing a great job with this position though so if I was a betting man I would certainly be looking at Volokhin as he's got the size and seems to move quickly in net but unlike Dobes he doesn't overcommit.

Fowler - Guy just wins. We'll see about the size, if it's an issue or not. Next year should be interesting for him as to me I would say BC likely had the best blueline in the NCAA, at least half of them are gone so how things play out there could be telling. I've heard it said BC is considered to have one of the best goalie coaches in the league.

Beck - In a way he reminds me of Engstrom in that he just seems to do everything well but aside from face-offs I'm not sure he does anything great. Love the release on the shot but it needs more work. To me he's one of the easiest locks to be an NHLer in our system, just a slam dunk he will play in the NHL but how good will he be is the question. I don't expect too much but I really like his game so he could surprise. Hope they don't rush him to the NHL.

Konyushkov - Really liked what I saw from him, he's undersized but reminds me a little of Svboda when he has the puck, really solid offensively. His defense in the KHL is good but if he were say if it were possible to play in the NHL next season, that he would face similar problems that Jordan Harris faces as they have similar body types. But he has 3 years to fill out some and then we'll see. Like Engstrom, Volokhin and Xhekaj, I really am impressed with the scouts finding them and getting them picked, no matter what happens I like the approach here.

Xhekaj - One of the most impressive jumps from Draft to D+1 I have ever seen, he's a beast that plays a nasty power game but has some decent hands, he will score goals in the NHL. He'll be someone you can put on the 2nd PP unit to stand in the crease, he gives goalies fits and it very difficult to move. He's shown good hand to eye to tip pucks and knock in rebounds. I don't know if he'll be a 4th line or in 5 years we look back and say how criminally underrated he was but what I do know is wherever he plays he will be a fan favorite.

Farrell - Injuries didn't help matters but it's clear that this season he just was not quick enough, too small and the strength/skating need more work. But he's so smart, vision, playmaking are elite imo or close to it. Just a question of can he improve on the speed/skating/strength cause players his size just can't be on the slow side in the NHL.

Kapanen - we'll see what happens, the little i've seen I haven't been overly impressed but I liked early on this year that the skating looked improved. He had a rough 1st half and a outstanding 2nd half so we'll see what the SHL brings.
Mesar - I have been hard on him, not a big fan but I do love how he can handle the puck with speed carrying it into the zone and his vision/playmaking like Farrell are elite or close enough. I don't care for the rest of his game but he showed a lot better effort in the playoffs. Next season should be interesting for sure one way or the other for him.

Dobes - Always liked him since I starting watching him in the USHL, such a fun goalie prospect, what a year he had, great to see him turn things around and have a big year after a tough start. Hope they keep working with him and get him to stop overcommitting.

Heineman - I was a lot higher on him but he struggled with consistency and injuries have been an issue. I like his game though, he battles, will take the body, really good speed, decent shot. Having guys like Heineman, Kapanen, Tuch, Beck, Xhekaj, you got what could be several NHL/bubble NHLers over the next two or so years that bring something that the Habs have been lacking.

Tuch - Good size, speed, needs to figure out what he wants to be, as his physical game is inconsistent and he hasn't shown enough offense yet to be more then a bottom liner in the NHL.

Trudeau - Good size, skating, mobility, decent offensive skills but poor decisions in his own end.

Davidson - needs to work on speed/skating but I like his game, works hard, good shot, physical.

Eriksson - Didn't get to see much of him, wasn't overly impressed when I did but looking forward to seeing him in the SHL.

Simoneau - If only he wasn't 5'7 and was quicker/better skater. Love the way he plays, heart and soul type.

Kostenko - Have liked his offensive game, didn't get to see too much of him but someone to keep an eye on imo.

Kidney - Disappointing season, he is easily outmatched physically, just seems to have no strength at all, undersized, not quick either. Thought he should have been in 3R but hopefully he has a big off-season.

Pitlick - I like the speed/skating, think he could end up a bit like Byron but doubtful he would be close to being that good. Has shown decent progress year over year at Minnesota, his coach is Poehling's former coach, likely a top 10 or 15 coach in the league imo.

Rohrer - I thought it was close between him and Guindon, I liked Guindon a little more but he didn't progress and now we'll see with Rohrer who I liked a bit but man is he small.

Great post. Thank you for your inputs. Appreciated

 

[BLONG7]

After watching hockey for almost 70 years and being directly involved in the supervision and development of elite draft eligible hockey players for the past decade I can say with a degree of certainty that except in the rarest of cases there is nothing more certain than the uncertainty of a youthful player’s rate and extent of development.

No one has that long sought after crystal ball. Not this writer. Not Hughes. It's all based on reasonably developed and considered projections.

An exercise, over the years, that I have found to be very useful in my efforts to assess the potential of any of our young prospects/players was to ask what the current market value of such considered prospects/players was. Ask yourself: Today, which of our prospects or players under the age of 22 could, by themselves, on the open market, in a trade of this player, garner a first round choice in the upcoming draft? I think we would all agree that if traded, Slafkovsky would get us a pick in the top 5, if not, even Celebrini, in return. Reinbacher and Hutson should easily allow us to secure a first round choice in the top 20 or even higher.

But what about Mesar? Mailloux? Harris? Beck? Roy? Primeau? or Struble? When one goes through this instructive exercise you quickly realize that many of our heralded young prospects/players may not have the market value or the upside as we had thought or hoped for.

As for Florian, I have written that when I first started to follow him this past year I was completely surprised by this relatively unknown player's skill level. He showed well above average straightforward speed, offensive vision and skills that allowed him to play on his team's number one power play unit while playing a controlled physical game. What sold me on this kid's upside was his ability to compete and play an impactful role in his few AHL games. He did what I look for in any young prospect: the skating ability to create separation that allows the player to use his skills and the vision to take advantage of those skills.

As I noted, like many young players, he needs to add quickness to his game. But if he does, the younger Xhekaj will literally jump up our depth chart of forward prospects. His combination of size and skill presents a tantalizing foretelling of his potential. He needs to get stronger and heavier. Hopefully such an increase in size will not serve to adversely affect his mobility.

This kid is no mere 'dime a dozen' enforcer . He has the potential to be a core player for this team going forward. And how many of our other young forwards can we realistically say that about?

Very very well said.
Thx as always for your analysis and in depth knowledge Chester.
I wish you had been on the habs payroll in their scouting department for the past 20 years, and maybe we wouldn't have been such a hot mess at the draft, and after the draft.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Very very well said.
Thx as always for your analysis and in depth knowledge Chester.
I wish you had been on the habs payroll in their scouting department for the past 20 years, and maybe we wouldn't have been such a hot mess at the draft, and after the draft.

He would have had to be GM to have any affect after the draft. I am sure Chester would never have let Therrien or Lefebvre anywhere near a coaching job with the Habs.