Proposal: MTL / CBJ Patrick Laine

[BLNY]

As a Habs fan I'd do this.

But I don't think the Jackets are in a rush to move Laine. So, I don't see them doing so in a sell-low scenario.


HuGo have brought in a variety of types of players. They usually look to add talent if the assets they give up warrant it. This would be a different situation though, given Laine's cap hit.

But here are some players they have brought in:

- Gurianov
- Dadonov
- Mesar
- Dach
- Newhook

- Matheson
- Barron
- Clague
- Hutson

There's a variety of players on that list. Main thing they have in common is skating.

Short-term players for cheap, players with future upside, or part of a cap trade. Laine is a different animal altogether. I don't see it.

 

[26Mats]

Short-term players for cheap, players with future upside, or part of a cap trade. Laine is a different animal altogether. I don't see it.

We'll the commitment to Laine is short term. And for sure there is long term potential upside.

We have to be careful about writing players off. In the NHL finals this year we see Evander Kane. In the NBA Kyrie Irving. Jack Eichel won the cup last year, and many had written him off. Dennis Rodman was a whole case. But on the right team, he won 3 titles in a row and is in the Hall of Fame.

I think Laine could potentially be a fit with Dach.

 

[BLNY]

We'll the commitment to Laine is short term. And for sure there is long term potential upside.

We have to be careful about writing players off. In the NHL finals this year we see Evander Kane. In the NBA Kyrie Irving. Jack Eichel won the cup last year, and many had written him off. Dennis Rodman was a whole case. But on the right team, he won 3 titles in a row and is in the Hall of Fame.

I think Laine could potentially be a fit with Dach.

I'm not saying Laine is cooked. I'm merely saying the person behind the player is not indicative of what HuGo are after and the sort of proposal you have to make to acquire implies a long-term view.

 

[26Mats]

I'm not saying Laine is cooked. I'm merely saying the person behind the player is not indicative of what HuGo are after and the sort of proposal you have to make to acquire implies a long-term view.

I agree. I also agree that Laine may be on a downward trajectory and not bounce back, kind of like Anthony Mantha. I just think HuGo are open to buy low options. I suspect Laine's main problem is what has him in the assistance program. He might have at least some selfish aspects to his personality. But most goal scorers do. It's often part of what makes them good goal scorers. Cammalleri was great for us in our conference finals run.

 

[Rightwing46]

MTL received : Patrick Laine, Mathieu Olivier

CBS received : 1st 2024 #26, Christian Dvorak, Jordan Harris

I think Columbus need C depth and are willing to trade huge cap hit of Laine. What do you think is the value of Laine with his contract and being on the player assistance program ?

It’s CBJ…..CBS is a television network

 

[jfhabs]

Not sure where those numbers came from bc completely wrong...as @Viqsi posted below

Oh taking the 18 games last year where he only had 9 pts...the entire team regressed this year

Should we only count his good games? Don't think that's how it works.

View attachment 880305

Oh ok so we're just excluding his off years? Of course if I count Cole Caufield games in which he scores he's a PPG player too

Nothing wrong with being a 0.8 ppg guy. Stop the non sense.

 

[Viqsi]

Oh ok so we're just excluding his off years?

Yes. Because the whole point is that we're talking about what he's been in Columbus, and the anticipation is that he'd bounce back to that. That recent off year represents the risk, and I was talking about the upside.

 

[jfhabs]

the last time he was 100% he put up 108 points over 111 games played (21-22 and 22-23) and, to add context

1. the jackets had (and still have) the worst group of centers in the league at that time
2. the jackets had (and still have) an utterly non-functional power play
3. those are the two best seasons of laine's career in terms of 5v5 primary p/60
4. in 22-23 he was their best forward in pretty much every advanced stat category at 5v5

the perception that he is somehow a lesser player than he was in winnipeg is entirely driven by being on a bad team with a broken power play. the player he was in the two years prior to this (lost) season was the best version of laine that the NHL has seen.

That's all good.
If you refer to my initial post. There's just no reason to call him what he isn't. Being a 0.8 ppg player is very good. Like I said, if the stars align (lots of IFs) he may very well put together some PPG seasons. Until then, there are too many IFs to call him that.

Never mentioned anything about Winnipeg, not sure where you took that from. Only thing I can say about that is he was team controlled and less injured then, hence a lot more valuable asset.

 

[jfhabs]

Yes. Because the whole point is that we're talking about what he's been in Columbus, and the anticipation is that he'd bounce back to that. That recent off year represents the risk, and I was talking about the upside.

Yeah, there's a chance, but a lot of things need to align. It's not it and I wouldn't call it likely either at this point.
I always hate to make statistical projections on players who play half the year. PPG pace is harder to keep up on 82 games than 52 games.
I know one of the year was COVID so that's not his fault. If it was a one off I wouldn't have the same opinion.

 

[Viqsi]

Yeah, there's a chance, but a lot of things need to align. It's not it and I wouldn't call it likely either at this point.
I always hate to make statistical projections on players who play half the year. PPG pace is harder to keep up on 82 games than 52 games.
I know one of the year was COVID so that's not his fault. If it was a one off I wouldn't have the same opinion.

The way he's actually played on the ice, it's not that hard for us to imagine - well, here in Columbus, anyways. And yeah, things do have to go well with his current treatment for him to bounce back to that. But for us there's pretty much no cost for it; we don't have a cap crunch to worry about nor does he have extended term, so if he pulls that off it'd be like playing with house money. Which is why the cost to acquire him ends up so silly from an outside perspective - since there's no real cost for us to take that risk, there's no reason for us to offset that cost for someone else in a trade.

It's not so much a "he's totally going to be this for you so pay up" as it is a "it doesn't cost us anything to keep him, so we're not giving you a risk discount".

 

[MoneyManny]

The last full season he's played was in 2018 and he hasn't scored 60 points in a while. I hate how dishonest the "near ppg player" comments are.

Availability is a skill at the end of the day and i can see why CBJ wouldn't want to let him go but from an outside point of view he's definitely not worth any assets, he's a red flag factory. No thx.

 

[Viqsi]

The last full season he's played was in 2018 and he hasn't scored 60 points in a while. I hate how dishonest the "near ppg player" comments are.

For the Jackets, it's accurate.

Availability is a skill at the end of the day and i can see why CBJ wouldn't want to let him go but from an outside point of view he's definitely not worth any assets, he's a red flag factory. No thx.

Entirely fair and makes perfect sense. I really don't think he gets moved; the disconnect between what it makes sense for us to sell him for versus what it makes sense for others to pay is just egregiously large. That's why I try to sum it up as "he's not a 'buy low' candidate".

 

[jfhabs]

The last full season he's played was in 2018 and he hasn't scored 60 points in a while. I hate how dishonest the "near ppg player" comments are.

Availability is a skill at the end of the day and i can see why CBJ wouldn't want to let him go but from an outside point of view he's definitely not worth any assets, he's a red flag factory. No thx.

I wouldn't be as harsh, because there's rare talent with this player, but yeah I have the same opinion overall!

The way he's actually played on the ice, it's not that hard for us to imagine - well, here in Columbus, anyways. And yeah, things do have to go well with his current treatment for him to bounce back to that. But for us there's pretty much no cost for it; we don't have a cap crunch to worry about nor does he have extended term, so if he pulls that off it'd be like playing with house money. Which is why the cost to acquire him ends up so silly from an outside perspective - since there's no real cost for us to take that risk, there's no reason for us to offset that cost for someone else in a trade.

It's not so much a "he's totally going to be this for you so pay up" as it is a "it doesn't cost us anything to keep him, so we're not giving you a risk discount".

Yeah I get what you're saying. The risk is losing him for nothing since I believe he still has value. I assume you think the chances of him contributing one day is greater than the chances of a 26th overall (25% chance) + spare parts

 

[Viqsi]

Yeah I get what you're saying. The risk is losing him for nothing since I believe he still has value. I assume you think the chances of him contributing one day is greater than the chances of a 26th overall (25% chance) + spare parts

Pretty much, yeah. Maybe if we had a little more need for those sorts of "spare parts" it'd be more workable, but as it is we're a tad overstocked on depth. So the calculus is "he's either a top-line badass, or a very temporary cap load we can easily afford" versus "here's even more guys we won't have the ice time or roster space to develop".

 

[Scintillating10]

from a columbus POV, the only framework that would really work is:

• CBJ gets:
  • one of matheson or dach
  • cap dump (dvorak, armia or price's LTIR hit)
• MTL gets:
  • patrik laine
  • a second roster piece (one of boqvist or texier)
  • the jackets 2nd round pick (36OA)

i assume i'm gonna get some angry habs fans replying to this, but here's my rationale:

that deal lines up more with team needs (maturation + stability + improvement) and asset sheet (excess RFA-age players + a pipeline that doesn't benefit from non-top-15 picks).

the jackets wouldn't be interested in adding the 26th overall pick for laine. waddell wants to improve the team right now – the jackets are better off just keeping laine and trying to do a better job of maximizing his talents.

if he bounces back and they're still out of it at the deadline, they can flip him at 50% ($4.35m) as a multi-season rental and get a much bigger haul than the 26th pick.

hence the counter-offer: adding the 36th pick + another young roster piece to laine and taking back a veteran cap dump in order to pry a piece that helps them more now (matheson/dach) but isn't a one-year rental.

matheson would be a perfect second fiddle to werenski, and free them up to move provorov (who they can easily retain on) to recoup the futures used on this trade. alternatively, dach gives them a long-term #2 to play behind fantilli.

unless you're gonna offer a laine trade that makes the jackets better right now, or offer up actual premium futures, there simply isn't an offer intriguing enough to outweigh the upside of giving him another year.

Definitely not moving Dach. Really hard for us to move Matheson. He's solid vet and we young defense.

Would you consider Guhle to switch first picks, Kent Johnson and Laine?

 

[CBJx614]

What about 20-21 and 23-24??

You mean this season that he was injured like two or three games into the season and then missed half a season and was traded to an entirely different system with absolutely no help on the roster?

Then this last season where the Blue Jackets hired a new coach only to have him fired a couple days before the season and they had to promote an assistant coach to try to run a system that wasn't his and then tried to have Laine learn a new position(that Laine suggested) and then Laine ended up getting hurt? I think most will agree that Laine can go on dry spells(usually due to an injury, he's banged up quite a bit) but he usually makes up for it when he gets going.

 

[CanadienShark]

But Mathieu Olivier is French-Canadian!!!!! There's a certain New York Rangers fan on this board who can tell you about all the marketing dollars Olivier will bring to the Canadiens!

Like it or not, coke or Pepsi, it's just reality.

 

[CBJx614]

Like it or not, coke or Pepsi, it's just reality.

Well, it's coke or Dr pepper now

 

[SteelCityCannon]

I feel like most CBJ fans acknowledge that he's not worth a ton right now. Why is it so hard to understand that we'd rather just keep him vs trading him for pennies on the dollar? Also, the last place Laine belongs in the NHL is Montreal. This is just another HF trade that makes 0 sense.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I have no information that suggest he's a problem for the team/locker room. But having a 8+M player injured or not playing is always an issue for the management. You want guys you can count on, specially when they are near the top of your depth chart.

If he stays and you see more of the same issues he's had (injury/assistance program), you're probably looking at a cap dump.
If he plays well and is healthy, I guess the plan is to trade him then?
If that's the case, it's not crazy to think they would take a first for him this year if they see a player they like available at 26.

I like Laine and would love to have him in Montreal. However, I don't think it would be a smart trade for Montreal to make. On the contrary, I think it could be good for Columbus if : they can use that cap space better and draft someone they like at 26.

I think Columbus really has no plans to trade Laine. There is no cap space problem in Columbus, so they can easily pay his contract. As you know, he has tremendous upside if he can overcome his injury history and current problems. The return wouldn't be enough to give up his potential on a team that is a few seasons away from really competing.

 

[VT]

It is funny, Columbus does not need these players also your #26.

 

[Scintillating10]

I think Columbus really has no plans to trade Laine. There is no cap space problem in Columbus, so they can easily pay his contract. As you know, he has tremendous upside if he can overcome his injury history and current problems. The return wouldn't be enough to give up his potential on a team that is a few seasons away from really competing.

Maybe so, but I think chance see trade between Jackets and Montreal. Waddell likely leaning for defense. Everybody knows Montreal drafting a forward. Waddell can get the defenseman he wants plus pick up a good asset by switching picks with Montreal

 

[squashmaple]

Maybe so, but I think chance see trade between Jackets and Montreal. Waddell likely leaning for defense. Everybody knows Montreal drafting a forward. Waddell can get the defenseman he wants plus pick up a good asset by switching picks with Montreal

Waddell wants mature defensemen who can make an impact at the NHL level right now, not an 18yo who might be a Blue Jacket in 2026. NHL-level defense is what the org needs right now. They’ll take a forward in the draft.

 

[DavidBL]

That's all good.
If you refer to my initial post. There's just no reason to call him what he isn't. Being a 0.8 ppg player is very good. Like I said, if the stars align (lots of IFs) he may very well put together some PPG seasons. Until then, there are too many IFs to call him that.

Never mentioned anything about Winnipeg, not sure where you took that from. Only thing I can say about that is he was team controlled and less injured then, hence a lot more valuable asset.

Really, the only if is "if" he is healthy, IMO.

 

[jfhabs]

Really, the only if is "if" he is healthy, IMO.

Well even when healthy he has only been PPG for one shortened season since the start of his career. So, I disagree.