Speculation: Moving up in the 2024 draft

[Tyson]

It’s not like Svechnikov has blown the doors off in the playoffs. He averages 57 over 82.

You can sense though that he has another level. He can be dominant

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You can sense though that he has another level. He can be dominant

I’d argue the same thing about CC. And we’ve already seen it. 48 in 82 that young is freaking crazy. Half of that came in his rookie year.

Bottom line is that there are still doubters because of his size. Other than that, there’s really no difference to go Svechnikov over CC if you’re basing it on production. The production is similar with CC having more goals.

 

[BoneHutson]

If Matheson could really be traded for the 10th OA pick, I wonder if Hughes wouldn't actually be tempted by that offer.

I guarantee you Hughes would bite on a deal offering #10 OA + Holtz for Matheson + WIN 1st rounder in 2024.

Holtz is a proven sharp-shooter who had succeeded playing against men in Europe. He has quickness and great lateral mobility and can play a good two-way game.

A change of scenery for the 22-year old winger and some inspiration from the Goal Whisperer, Marty St-Louis, could well do the trick. Holtz has too many different skills to be a bust, IMO.

On top of getting either Demidov, Lindstrom, or Iginla at #5 OA, Montreal would been a great position to complete the forward shopping after this early draft pick and Holtz at #10 OA, even without moving up in the draft, now that they had sacrificed the WIN pick to add Holtz to the mix.

It would be good to have two sharp shooters mentioned above -- one of Demidov, Lindstrom, or Iginla, plus Holtz -- and one of Catton, Helenius, Sennecke, or Eiserman that will definitely be available at #10, IMO.

We'd definitely be talking about one-stop shopping for missing talent up front, but development of the D would be more hazardous with Matheson gone, IMO.

Hughes would have to turn to the UFA front to add a 1st pairing RHD for the short term, to assist Guhle's development as a 1st pairing LHD and to prevent the need to rush Reinbacher and/or Mailloux into a greater role than they are currently ready to take on.

Otherwise, he could trade a lesser, younger D and one of the 5 3rd round picks we have over the next two drafts for an ageing RHD with an overpaid, short term contract as a stop gap for Reinbacher, for instance.

You can just sign a guy like Carrier on a short term deal if you trade a vet like Matheson…

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I'd give up a serious mix of late firsts + assets to move up , what's the point of all these middling assets if not to use them. Am I crazy here? Feels like if we draft a bonified first liner *on est en business*.

I wouldn't be opposed to simply drafting the BPA dman though . For some reason the forwards scare me in this draft

I'm only saying this because im not so high on the forwards in the draft after demidov honnestly. I like lindstrom but he has his issues. And the other forwards are good but idk about them at 5

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'd give up a serious mix of late firsts + assets to move up , what's the point of all these middling assets if not to use them. Am I crazy here? Feels like if we draft a bonified first liner *on est en business*.

I wouldn't be opposed to simply drafting the BPA dman though . For some reason the forwards scare me in this draft

I'm only saying this because im not so high on the forwards in the draft after demidov honnestly. I like lindstrom but he has his issues. And the other forwards are good but idk about them at 5

Everyone has issues after Celebrini, it's just whether they are issues we can live with or develop out of them.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I'd give up a serious mix of late firsts + assets to move up , what's the point of all these middling assets if not to use them. Am I crazy here? Feels like if we draft a bonified first liner *on est en business*.

I wouldn't be opposed to simply drafting the BPA dman though . For some reason the forwards scare me in this draft

I'm only saying this because im not so high on the forwards in the draft after demidov honnestly. I like lindstrom but he has his issues. And the other forwards are good but idk about them at 5

IDK. It sounds like after 1st OA, opinions of prospects have greater variation than we've seen in very, very long time. In general, trading up fails more than it works, so you better be very confident in the prospect or its going to be even harder to build a contender.

Demidov has question marks too. As dominant as he's looked, the MHL has very low level of competition and there's no major tournaments to look at.

I feel like fans are fixating more on drafting a forward than the front office is. Obviously that's their preference, but I doubt the urgency is the same as trading up to pick a Demidov (or Lindstrom). Especially since its pretty far from a lock that either will go before 5 anyways.

 

[CHwest]

It’s not like Svechnikov has blown the doors off in the playoffs. He averages 57 over 82.

Difference being he has played in the league since he was 18, and has developed in the show.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Difference being he has played in the league since he was 18, and has developed in the show.

Great. But CC has similar point rates and a higher goal rate and hasn’t been in the league near as long.

And CC is coming off a season with spectacular underlying numbers. If not for that lousy percentage he probably would’ve put up 50 goals.

Who has more potential?

 

[CHwest]

Great. But CC has similar point rates and a higher goal rate and hasn’t been in the league near as long.

And CC is coming off a season with spectacular underlying numbers. If not for that lousy percentage he probably would’ve put up 50 goals.

Who has more potential?

In my opinion Svechnikov will be the more impactful player.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

In my opinion Svechnikov will be the more impactful player.

Fair enough. We’ll see. I thought Cc was going to score 40 at least and that didn’t happen. So we’ll have to see where it goes.

 

[Canadienna]

And CC is coming off a season with spectacular underlying numbers. If not for that lousy percentage he probably would’ve put up 50 goals.

Curious what numbers you are referring to. Looking at the usual 5v5 on-ice numbers I certainly wouldn't call his results spectacular.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Curious what numbers you are referring to. Looking at the usual 5v5 on-ice numbers I certainly wouldn't call his results spectacular.

His analytics are great and he put up 314 shots on goal. With even a 13 percent shooting percentage that’s a 41 goal season. With the previous years’s number it would’ve been a 51 goal year.

To put it in perspective we haven’t had a player with that many shots since Guy Lafleur.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Curious what numbers you are referring to. Looking at the usual 5v5 on-ice numbers I certainly wouldn't call his results spectacular.

They didn't say results, they said numbers. His shot rate, location and selection was comparable to prime Gallagher and were among the best in the NHL (whether you want to look at ES or all situations). So it depends on if you think he has a better shot than prime Gallagher going forward, because if you do then his upside is tremendous if he puts together what he's demonstrated in the NHL.

 

[Leto]

I'd give up a serious mix of late firsts + assets to move up , what's the point of all these middling assets if not to use them. Am I crazy here? Feels like if we draft a bonified first liner *on est en business*.

I wouldn't be opposed to simply drafting the BPA dman though . For some reason the forwards scare me in this draft

I'm only saying this because im not so high on the forwards in the draft after demidov honnestly. I like lindstrom but he has his issues. And the other forwards are good but idk about them at 5

If that option was available to us, I am sure we would pull the trigger. Truth be told, trading within the top 5 is a rare event that we haven't seen in recent memory. Within the last 25 years, you have to go back to 2008, 2004, 2003,2002 and 1999 for it to happen.

You would probably have to give an obscene price to make it happen, the type of price that could cripple you. Missing out on Carlsson/Fantilli still hurts.​

 

[WeThreeKings]

Basu & Godin did the exercise.

2003 and 2008 were the last time you saw a pick trade in the top 5 where the team knew they were moving a top 5 (i.e. not like the Duchene trade where the pick ended up top 5 later on).