Speculation: Most beneficial for this team vs your preference: Run for a WC spot, or a high pick?

[Guy Larose]

What kind of shit fans do we have to hope for injuries and not make the playoffs when they're 3 points back? Oh, this is a disguised tank thread, got it.

 

[ReHabs]

If Armia, Savard, and Evans are playing well enough to warrant a 2nd round pick each at the deadline, then they're probably playing well enough to help the Habs.

I think that these Habs are good enough to compete with any team in a seven game series, but not good enough to contend.

I don’t understand what you mean to say with your second paragraph.

As for the UFAs, it seems you’re saying tweeners don’t sell players who could keep them in that tweener spots. I think I’ve seen it happen enough to know it happens. I don’t think Hughes will force a fire sale but I would prefer all the pending UFAs sold off yes.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Wait. So we’re talking “playoff positivity thread” vs “official tank thread”?

Hmmmmm….im torn

 

[DAChampion]

I don’t understand what you mean to say with your second paragraph.

"I think that these Habs are good enough to compete with any team in a seven game series, but not good enough to contend."

As in, I think the Habs can beat any team in a 7-game series, but I don't expect them to do it four times. They're not good enough yet. They have big holes. But many teams with holes make it past the first round.

As for the UFAs, it seems you’re saying tweeners don’t sell players who could keep them in that tweener spots. I think I’ve seen it happen enough to know it happens. I don’t Hughes will force a fire sale but I would prefer all the pending UFAs sold off yes.

Lots of tweeners sell players, and heck the contending Avalanche just sold Rantanen, I'm just not sure it's a good move for the Habs.

I'm assuming that each of Savard, Evans, Armia, and Dvorak are worth a second rounder. We don't actually know their value, but for this discussion we have to assume something, so let's assume 4 second rounders, I think that's reasonable, what do you think?

I think that it would be very nice to add 4 second rounders, what you might have in the past referred to as 4 magic beans but the cost would be severe. I think if you replace those players with e.g. Struble, Beck, Roy, and Condotta the team doesn't make the playoffs, doesn't get that experience, and the players get a bad message from the GM, a message that even if they're winning he won't support them.

 

[HuGort]

2 part to the question:

As a fan, which scenery would you prefer: Fight until the ends for a playoff spot (but not making it) or finish lower in the standing and picking 5-8?

And as far as team building goes, which one do you think would be the most beneficial (keep in mind the first scenery the team does not qualify for a playoff spot, but stays in the race until the end of the season). Keep in mind too that we still have a lottery chance at a top 2 pick as the rules with standing odds still applies.

So gained experience against adversity and playing competitive games for a full season, vs a somewhat high pick (around 5-8 with low odds at a top 2 pick).

I didn’t make a thread about making the playoffs vs picking top 3 as to not just start another tank vs not tank thread.

Picking 5-8 it's a no brainer, playoff race for sure. If it was a top 3 pick? Harder choice, Either case would be good.

Due to us having a star coming. I take the playoff race. We drafted high in draft 3 consecutive years. Plus Bergevin left cupboard well stocked. Caufield, Guhle, Wifi, Dobes, Mailloux, etc.. it's time for playoffs

 

[ReHabs]

"I think that these Habs are good enough to compete with any team in a seven game series, but not good enough to contend."

As in, I think the Habs can beat any team in a 7-game series, but I don't expect them to do it four times. They're not good enough yet. They have big holes. But many teams with holes make it past the first round.


Lots of tweeners sell players, and heck the contending Avalanche just sold Rantanen, I'm just not sure it's a good move for the Habs.

I'm assuming that each of Savard, Evans, Armia, and Dvorak are worth a second rounder. We don't actually know their value, but for this discussion we have to assume something, so let's assume 4 second rounders, I think that's reasonable, what do you think?

I think that it would be very nice to add 4 second rounders, what you might have in the past referred to as 4 magic beans but the cost would be severe. I think if you replace those players with e.g. Struble, Beck, Roy, and Condotta the team doesn't make the playoffs, doesn't get that experience, and the players get a bad message from the GM, a message that even if they're winning he won't support them.

The debate in the OP is about missing the playoffs narrowly vs firesale.

I would take a playoff appearance over magic beans, sure, but I don’t think we are on track to make the playoffs unless other teams fall apart.

 

[DAChampion]

The debate in the OP is about missing the playoffs narrowly vs firesale.

I would take a playoff appearance over magic beans, sure, but I don’t think we are on track to make the playoffs unless other teams fall apart.

You're right, I misinterpreted the OP.

 

[SlafySZN]

Better pick would be the best.

9-12 pick would be nice in that draft.

The team very clearly isn't a playoffs or contending team.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Kapanen Beck, Davidson and Demidov area all superior to those 3. Optimally you keep Evans and fire Gallagher into the sun.

Demidov absolutely and he’s why I’m not really too worried regardless of what happens.

Even if Demidov comes as expected we could see some trouble after losing 3 of our better defensive forwards.

The other 3 look like they need a bit more seasoning still

 

[CHwest]

I think we will be close when our prospects develop, we do need a 1st line RD, hopefully Rinny can be that guy, I would still have my eyes open for one. If the prize for a bottom type finish was a RD I would pick that, if not we could use the experience of a wildcard battle.

 

[Tyson]

Learn to win playing important games.

 

[Thomas Sowell]

This is a shit draft, and we're going to be playoff bound next year. Just win. We have almost all the pieces. The next big piece will be a UFA signing or a big trade using picks. We're ready to go forward.

 

[Kennerback]

What kind of shit fans do we have to hope for injuries and not make the playoffs when they're 3 points back? Oh, this is a disguised tank thread, got it.

IDK, Chicago is going in the 3rd period with 5 shots on goal. A couple of injuries won’t do it.

 

[Milhouse40]

39 points in 49 games
At the top of list for rookie of the year.

Drafted 62 overall on his way to become a superstar in the NHL......

But sure, a high pick is a guarantee of success....other Bedard and Celebrini, I wouldn't trade Hutson for the top picks of the last few years.

Draft well, develop well and bring the rest of the kids in a positive and winning culture.

It's an easy go for it for me.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The team should play as well as it can. I’m fine with selling some assets (Dvorak, Struble, Matheson) at the deadline. But we shouldn’t be selling the farm. Do what you can to make the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[rahad]

To be honest the pick would do more long term. But the loser mentality is why buffalo is still trash with a pretty great roster. They're a feeder team dealing elite players to the rest of the league.

Dobes basically is the choice here. If we'd kept Primeau up he would have lost every game in regulation and we'd be 11 points back of where Dobby got us.

That alone would move us from 2 points out of a wiflcard to one point ahead of Buffalo for fourth worst in the league.

If anything I'd reward the boys and add a piece that fits like Carrier for getting this close. I don't see elite talent at number five anyways. Demidov and Hutson are first overall talents so let's just count out blessings.

What loser mentality? How many player from Buffalo have won the Stanley cup after leaving them? Ryan O'Reiley has the MVP for his team. Eichel and Sam Reinhart have been clutch for Vegas and Florida Stanley cup.

For Buffalo is more about bad GM and Coach getting fire every 2 seasons. They also drafted the same type of player (small player)....

If Jeff Skinner end up winning the stanley cup with Edmonton, you can add another name to the list.

 

[HuGort]

I don't think trading Dvorak, Armia, Evans and Savard necessarily implies replacing them with rookies no. It simply means we're keeping options open for July 1st and possibly up to next training camp.

It would mean that for 20 games, you'd test your current crop for sure though.

Being out of race also allows trading of veterans for bunch of draft picks. Similar to Monahan led to Hage.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Cake and eat it too, playoff race and then trade our 2x1sts to the Pens to move up and pick Desnoyers

 

[Toene]

To me it's not about the pick. It's about the opportunity cost of not trading Evans, Savard and Armia. If we trade those guys I'm happy with anything that happens!

What opportunity cost? Slamming shut any playoff hope and deflating the team's morale for a couple picks that are years away from playing (if they dont bust)?

The eternal tankers are funny. They remind me of those hoarding-disorder shows on like TLC.
I swear you guys would advise the Caps should sell at the deadline.

 

[ReHabs]

What opportunity cost? Slamming shut any playoff hope and deflating the team's morale for a couple picks that are years away from playing (if they dont bust)?

The eternal tankers are funny. They remind me of those hoarding-disorder shows on like TLC.
I swear you guys would advise the Caps should sell at the deadline.

I'm super duper against eternal tanking but the Habs made their bed by squandering 30% of the season to start. I think that shut our playoff hopes.

If you notice, even with our blistering form since Dec 1st, we're still just in a dogfight for WC2. If we're in a playoff spot by the TDL I'd be surprised + happy, but if we're out of a playoff spot I think it would be even more crushing and deflating to squander the opportunity cost of selling the pending-UFAs if they have a market.

You're right, I misinterpreted the OP.

It's fine -- it's a very cool topic because it's basically a barometer for how we fans interpret, define, and measure success, goals, targets, etc.

The only reason I'm hammering the "sell Evans" point is because I'm convinced the Habs need to:

• Retain Laine (if convinced)
• Acquire a 2C to improve on Dach (or be convinced of Dach as the 2C)
• Acquire a top2 D

To do so we need trade assets and to wheel and deal. Having more trade assets means more flexibility, variability, and less impact on our team's development pipeline. I don't want to trade away Michael Hage but if we had two or three prospects of similar stature, it would be a lot more palatable.

So with the above said, does trading Evans, Armia, Savard, and/or Dvorak get us anything valuable at all? If they get a high 3rd or 2nd round pick I would do it. Hutson was a 62OA and Hage was a 21OA, the Habs packaged 26OA+57OA+198OA to get the 21OA. We could always use the ammunition.

Now, does this extra assets ammo help more than retaining Evans, Armia, Savard and/or Dvorak for an additional 20 games? This is a matter of taste and, I think, the real debate.

 

[Lshap]

The high pick doesn't fall out of the sky.

It's assumed in that case that our players are playing poorly. If we make the playoffs, or at least get close, it's assumed in that case our players are playing well.

Would you prefer Dobes keeps up his great play for the whole year, or not?

Would you prefer Slaf takes off in the second half, or not?

Would you prefer Hutson puts up a historic rookie season, or not?

These things are all related. Hoping for a high pick is hoping the guys we all like underperform.

Well said. I get why people want another top player, but having our core underperform is a terrible way to get him. A substantial part of our future core is already on the team. Much better for them to improve and win more games than have them fail as a group for the sake of adding one hypothetical top player.

Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, Dach, Laine, Newhook, Heineman – all acquired via other routes than tanking. Hutson and Dobes weren't tank picks either, since they went late 2nd round and 5th round, respectively. The only way we get a top pick is if that group of players suck. I can't imagine how that's a good thing.

So with the above said, does trading Evans, Armia, Savard, and/or Dvorak get us anything valuable at all? If they get a high 3rd or 2nd round pick I would do it. Hutson was a 62OA and Hage was a 21OA, the Habs packaged 26OA+57OA+198OA to get the 21OA. We could always use the ammunition.

Now, does this extra assets ammo help more than retaining Evans, Armia, Savard and/or Dvorak for an additional 20 games? This is a matter of taste and, I think, the real debate.

We've disagreed on Evans' fate. I'd still keep him, because I don't think we'll get anyone as good through whatever pick he gets us. But, as you pointed out, it's all about price. An effective 31-year-old Evans on a team-friendly contract is good; a broken down 33-year-old Evans weighing down our cap is bad.

 

[waitin425]

I mean.....can't we have both?

Race for the playoffs finishing just out 12-16th overall. And have the Calgary pick at 11th. Package those two and we move up to 7th or 8th.

Just saying.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The team on the ice needs to play meaningful games. That is the most important. It's not likely we slip to 5-8 range at this stage. Best we can hope for is 8-12 range but it will probably be 10-15 range.

Makes no sense to derail the team's momentum with a pick difference (8 vs 15). The talent will be similar in that range.

 

[Egresch]

8th draft position is currently held by Philly who are at 0,500 alongside two other teams (9th and 10th). Going down to 0,500 would require us to play 0,439 hockey for the rest of the season and I do not see that happening after the turnoaround we just did. So, realistically, we are "In Da Mix" and even if we fail, we are 11-16. We can still get some very interesting prospect there (RHDs like Hensler, Mrtka or good F like Bear, Spence, Carbonneau).

 

[WinterLion]

What opportunity cost? Slamming shut any playoff hope and deflating the team's morale for a couple picks that are years away from playing (if they dont bust)?

The eternal tankers are funny. They remind me of those hoarding-disorder shows on like TLC.
I swear you guys would advise the Caps should sell at the deadline.

haha yes I don't think you are completely wrong... and hopefully in the next few weeks I'll be proven wrong....

I guess the question is do you want to be a buyer? Because not trading those guys already kinda puts you in that position by leaving quite a bit on the table.

I certainly don't want to be a buyer at this point. The team has been great buy I feel like they are one injury away from falling out of it. They don't have the depth for a stretch run and would need so many things to really be able to compete in a playoff run.

I want to be a seller so that when it's time for us to be buyers in a few years we will have plenty to work with.