Player Discussion Morgan Rielly

[Ports]

Seth Jones got 9.5
Werenski got 9.5
Darnell Nurse got 9’5

Morgan Rielly got 7.5. There’s the discount

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.

 

[Stephen]

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.View attachment 972444

Rielly suffers from market distortion like Phaneuf did. He’s a number one defenseman living in the $7 million salary range but by virtue of being Toronto’s number one guy for so long surrounded by so much mediocrity, you couldn’t really find a comparable for him around the league.

 

[Aashir]

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.View attachment 972444

He is/was easily better than:
Erik Karlsson
Jacob Trouba
Thomas Chabot
MARC EDWARD VLASIC
He was equal to hamilton as both alternated who was better y2y

I love how you just exclude the three example I gave because…..reasons

Rielly signed the contract on October 29th, he finished that season with 68 points, then he had a 49 point pace, than he had a 66 point pace and this year he’s been awful. When he signed that contract, it was easily under market value just based on who signed on the same calendar year as him, on the same cap

I also usually agree with @Stephen with a lot of things but i feel his take on Rielly is a miss. Morgan Rielly didn’t get paid because he was Toronto’s #1, he got paid that much because he by his own merit was a #1, not a top 10-15 dman, but he was comfortably in the 20s.

If prior to this year Morgan Rielly wasn’t a #1 than neither was dougie hamilton or shea theodore as they had very very similar stats over the years of 2018-19 to 2023-2024.

Let’s not rewrite history into something it’s not now.

 

[Stephen]

He is/was easily better than:
Erik Karlsson
Jacob Trouba
Thomas Chabot
MARC EDWARD VLASIC
He was equal to hamilton as both alternated who was better y2y

I love how you just exclude the three example I gave because…..reasons

Rielly signed the contract on October 29th, he finished that season with 68 points, then he had a 49 point pace, than he had a 66 point pace and this year he’s been awful. When he signed that contract, it was easily under market value just based on who signed on the same calendar year as him, on the same cap

I also usually agree with @Stephen with a lot of things but i feel his take on Rielly is a miss. Morgan Rielly didn’t get paid because he was Toronto’s #1, he got paid that much because he by his own merit was a #1, not a top 10-15 dman, but he was comfortably in the 20s.

If prior to this year Morgan Rielly wasn’t a #1 than neither was dougie hamilton or shea theodore as they had very very similar stats over the years of 2018-19 to 2023-2024.

Let’s not rewrite history into something it’s not now.

Well, I'm not saying he didn't deserve $7.5 million when he signed the contract, although he certainly isn't playing to that level now. What I'm saying is it's hard to find a direct comparable around the league for comparison because there's so much in-market distortion about who he is.

 

[Gallagbi]

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.View attachment 972444

You probably want to rethink the criteria given your standard/comparison is excluded from it.

Mo's contract didn't start until '22, which is why he doesn't show on your list. Two other similar D (Nurse and Jones) also signed right before Rielly as well and are excluded with the same effective year. Personally I'd just look at all D above say 6.5M who signed at UFA age and go from there. I expect he's on the lower end, but not the bottom.

Even on your list, it's really tough to take guys like Trouba and Pickles over Mo. To say otherwise is pretty disingenuous.

 

[Ports]

He is/was easily better than:
Erik Karlsson
Jacob Trouba
Thomas Chabot
MARC EDWARD VLASIC
He was equal to hamilton as both alternated who was better y2y

I love how you just exclude the three example I gave because…..reasons

Rielly signed the contract on October 29th, he finished that season with 68 points, then he had a 49 point pace, than he had a 66 point pace and this year he’s been awful. When he signed that contract, it was easily under market value just based on who signed on the same calendar year as him, on the same cap

I also usually agree with @Stephen with a lot of things but i feel his take on Rielly is a miss. Morgan Rielly didn’t get paid because he was Toronto’s #1, he got paid that much because he by his own merit was a #1, not a top 10-15 dman, but he was comfortably in the 20s.

If prior to this year Morgan Rielly wasn’t a #1 than neither was dougie hamilton or shea theodore as they had very very similar stats over the years of 2018-19 to 2023-2024.

Let’s not rewrite history into something it’s not now.

I gave you objective data. You cherry picked three players and laughably chose Werenski who’s third in the league in scoring one point behind Makar who’s played one more game. This is obviously a subjective discussion. You like Rielly as a defenseman. I don’t. You see an objective list that shows how Rielly isn’t underpaid. I see it differently.

 

[Aashir]

I gave you objective data. You cherry picked three players and laughably chose Werenski who’s third in the league in scoring one point behind Makar who’s played one more game. This is obviously a subjective discussion. You like Rielly as a defenseman. I don’t. You see an objective list that shows how Rielly isn’t underpaid. I see it differently.

weresnki at the time of signing was a 50 point player

he's grown into the deal

 

[Ports]

You probably want to rethink the criteria given your standard/comparison is excluded from it.

Mo's contract didn't start until '22, which is why he doesn't show on your list. Two other similar D (Nurse and Jones) also signed right before Rielly as well and are excluded with the same effective year. Personally I'd just look at all D above say 6.5M who signed at UFA age and go from there. I expect he's on the lower end, but not the bottom.

Even on your list, it's really tough to take guys like Trouba and Pickles over Mo. To say otherwise is pretty disingenuous.

Mo is terrible. Not an NHL defenseman on a cup contender. Trouba hurts people. Mo hurts his team.

 

[Ports]

weresnki at the time of signing was a 50 point player

he's grown into the deal

Werenski was making $5M and a 24 year old stud defenseman on a terrible team who was already better than Rielly when Rielly was signed to his contract.

 

[Stephen]

weresnki at the time of signing was a 50 point player

he's grown into the deal

Werenski had shown high end flashes from the moment he entered the league and looked like a special defenseman paired up with Seth Jones. Took him some up and down years to get to this level but if any franchise is going to pony up for a defenseman it’s going to be an elite skill, 6’3” plus guy who can skate like the wind.

Also another factor at the time of the Rielly, Nurse etc contacts. Rielly is quite a bit shorter than everyone else and doesn’t have the profile of a 6’3” plus franchise defenseman. Call that height-ism what have you but that’s a trait teams were paying big bucks for that year. Fox being an exception but Fox was on another level, being a Norris winner.

 

[Martin Skoula]

His contract would be fine on a team built differently, the problem in Toronto is he doesn’t really have an obvious job. There’s two wingers on the ice 45 minutes a night that are more reliable on the transition and as PP QBs, he’s not a shutdown guy, he’s not a puck recovery guy, he’s not a point shot threat, he’s not a penalty killer. In just about every game state, there’s someone else you’d rather be doing any of the key jobs that win games. If we had generic sniping top-6 wingers and a hole at smooth skating puck mover, yeah he makes sense.

 

[Blanche Blanche]

His contract would be fine on a team built differently, the problem in Toronto is he doesn’t really have an obvious job. There’s two wingers on the ice 45 minutes a night that are more reliable on the transition and as PP QBs, he’s not a shutdown guy, he’s not a puck recovery guy, he’s not a point shot threat, he’s not a penalty killer. In just about every game state, there’s someone else you’d rather be doing any of the key jobs that win games. If we had generic sniping top-6 wingers and a hole at smooth skating puck mover, yeah he makes sense.

Well said.

Our D went from possession heavy speedsters and no toughness under Dubas - To body heavy crash and cycle kill guys who can take a hit to make an outlet pass under Tre and Berube

Morgan went from #1 Dman to #4 or #5 in that exact same philosophy shift.

We are tightening this team to go further into the playoffs, and anyone who has been watching this team last few years already knew Rielly had some flaws. It was shocking how bad he looked once all your new Dmen brought in can actually body people and break up cycles.

I hope he gets going. For this team and also his trade value.

 

[arso40]

Well said.

Our D went from possession heavy speedsters and no toughness under Dubas - To body heavy crash and cycle kill guys who can take a hit to make an outlet pass under Tre and Berube

Morgan went from #1 Dman to #4 or #5 in that exact same philosophy shift.

We are tightening this team to go further into the playoffs, and anyone who has been watching this team last few years already knew Rielly had some flaws. It was shocking how bad he looked once all your new Dmen brought in can actually body people and break up cycles.

I hope he gets going. For this team and also his trade value.

Wish he would wave that no trade

 

[Martin Skoula]

Well said.

Our D went from possession heavy speedsters and no toughness under Dubas - To body heavy crash and cycle kill guys who can take a hit to make an outlet pass under Tre and Berube

Morgan went from #1 Dman to #4 or #5 in that exact same philosophy shift.

We are tightening this team to go further into the playoffs, and anyone who has been watching this team last few years already knew Rielly had some flaws. It was shocking how bad he looked once all your new Dmen brought in can actually body people and break up cycles.

I hope he gets going. For this team and also his trade value.

Other than a season of Barrie we have never really had a mobile or offensively capable defense this window. Dubas’ adds on D were Muzzin, Brodie, McCabe and a who’s who of Polak impressionists like Lyub, Schenn, Bogosian, Benn, etc. Sandin was our most offensively inclined guy behind Rielly and he was slow as shit. We never tried to go full Colorado where they had a smooth skating high IQ D on every pair. Possession heavy speedsters is having one of Makar, Towes, Girard, and Byram on the ice all 60 minutes, we never came close to that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sure, he's on the ice for empty net goals against, but how many of those are the result of his poor play and decisions at the blueline?

I went back and watched every EN goal against because I was curious. I couldn't find any attributable to Rielly.

 

[Skullz]

Terrific game last night. Notably, he was using his legs to jump in on the rush and create chances. That's what he needs to do: can't play scared. He is a Ferrari, not an F150.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Rielly is quite a bit shorter than everyone else and doesn’t have the profile of a 6’3” plus franchise defenseman. Call that height-ism what have you but that’s a trait teams were paying big bucks for that year.

Teams don't pay for height.

Also, Rielly isn't even short. He's 6'1". Almost half of the defensemen making 7m+ are his height or shorter. Heck, the shortest defenseman in the NHL makes more than him.

 

[Gallagbi]

Also another factor at the time of the Rielly, Nurse etc contacts. Rielly is quite a bit shorter than everyone else and doesn’t have the profile of a 6’3” plus franchise defenseman. Call that height-ism what have you but that’s a trait teams were paying big bucks for that year. Fox being an exception but Fox was on another level, being a Norris winner.

Average height of the top 10 highest paid D is 6'1.5 and 6'2 for everyone higher paid than Mo.

 

[Stephen]

Average height of the top 10 highest paid D is 6'1.5 and 6'2 for everyone higher paid than Mo.

No, I’m specifically talking about summer 2021 when there was a run on taller number one defensemen, which came in the offseason after Pietrangelo seemed to have set the market with VGK at just under $9 million.

Zach Werenski $9.5
Seth Jones $9.5
Darnell Nurse $9.25
Dougie Hamilton $9

McAvoy and Fox aren’t the same type of build but they got money in the $9’s as well that fall. Fox owing to his Norris season.

Morgan landed a couple million under that bar.

 

[Stephen]

Teams don't pay for height.

Also, Rielly isn't even short. He's 6'1". Almost half of the defensemen making 7m+ are his height or shorter. Heck, the shortest defenseman in the NHL makes more than him.

Well yeah they did Dekes. There was a run on tall defensemen in 2021 after Petro set the market coming up to the $9 million mark.

Do you even know what you’re arguing about?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well yeah they did Dekes.

Well no, they didn't Stephen. They weren't paying for height.

 

[Stephen]

Well no, they didn't Stephen. They weren't paying for height.

There was a run on 5 defensemen of massive quality difference each making between $8.8 million and $9.5 million all signed within a 12 month time period between late 2020 and fall 2021. Pietrangelo, Jones, Nurse, Werenski and Hamilton. Each were seen as number one workhorse defensemen who brought size but of varying career track record, age, RFA vs UFA status.

McAvoy and Fox didn’t fit into that size requirement but got $9 million plus. Fox was a Norris winner and McAvoy is a classic franchise defenseman at any size.

Morgan was paid a lot less than that group but you could make the argument he was better than at least Jones and Nurse at the time. So obviously he didn’t get paid like a 6’3” plus franchise cornerstone on D that the market valued.

 

[IPS]

Rielly's like 5'11" at best, but most defensemen have fraudulent heights listed.

 

[Gallagbi]

No, I’m specifically talking about summer 2021 when there was a run on taller number one defensemen, which came in the offseason after Pietrangelo seemed to have set the market with VGK at just under $9 million.

Zach Werenski $9.5
Seth Jones $9.5
Darnell Nurse $9.25
Dougie Hamilton $9

McAvoy and Fox aren’t the same type of build but they got money in the $9’s as well that fall. Fox owing to his Norris season.

Morgan landed a couple million under that bar.

That same Pietro summer signed also had Josi (6'1) and Spurgeon (5'9) signing big money deal. If I look at comparable deals around that time, say kicking in from 2020 (Pietro, Josi) to 2022 (Mo, Nurse, Jones, McAvoy) the average height is 6'2.

I'd argue that Werenski, Mo and McAvoy are a closer build to eachother than they are to either Adam Fox or Seth Jones as well.