Player Discussion Morgan Rielly

[Ports]

Seth Jones got 9.5
Werenski got 9.5
Darnell Nurse got 9’5

Morgan Rielly got 7.5. There’s the discount

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.

 

[Stephen]

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.View attachment 972444

Rielly suffers from market distortion like Phaneuf did. He’s a number one defenseman living in the $7 million salary range but by virtue of being Toronto’s number one guy for so long surrounded by so much mediocrity, you couldn’t really find a comparable for him around the league.

 

[Aashir]

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.View attachment 972444

He is/was easily better than:
Erik Karlsson
Jacob Trouba
Thomas Chabot
MARC EDWARD VLASIC
He was equal to hamilton as both alternated who was better y2y

I love how you just exclude the three example I gave because…..reasons

Rielly signed the contract on October 29th, he finished that season with 68 points, then he had a 49 point pace, than he had a 66 point pace and this year he’s been awful. When he signed that contract, it was easily under market value just based on who signed on the same calendar year as him, on the same cap

I also usually agree with @Stephen with a lot of things but i feel his take on Rielly is a miss. Morgan Rielly didn’t get paid because he was Toronto’s #1, he got paid that much because he by his own merit was a #1, not a top 10-15 dman, but he was comfortably in the 20s.

If prior to this year Morgan Rielly wasn’t a #1 than neither was dougie hamilton or shea theodore as they had very very similar stats over the years of 2018-19 to 2023-2024.

Let’s not rewrite history into something it’s not now.

 

[Stephen]

He is/was easily better than:
Erik Karlsson
Jacob Trouba
Thomas Chabot
MARC EDWARD VLASIC
He was equal to hamilton as both alternated who was better y2y

I love how you just exclude the three example I gave because…..reasons

Rielly signed the contract on October 29th, he finished that season with 68 points, then he had a 49 point pace, than he had a 66 point pace and this year he’s been awful. When he signed that contract, it was easily under market value just based on who signed on the same calendar year as him, on the same cap

I also usually agree with @Stephen with a lot of things but i feel his take on Rielly is a miss. Morgan Rielly didn’t get paid because he was Toronto’s #1, he got paid that much because he by his own merit was a #1, not a top 10-15 dman, but he was comfortably in the 20s.

If prior to this year Morgan Rielly wasn’t a #1 than neither was dougie hamilton or shea theodore as they had very very similar stats over the years of 2018-19 to 2023-2024.

Let’s not rewrite history into something it’s not now.

Well, I'm not saying he didn't deserve $7.5 million when he signed the contract, although he certainly isn't playing to that level now. What I'm saying is it's hard to find a direct comparable around the league for comparison because there's so much in-market distortion about who he is.

 

[Gallagbi]

These are the defenseman in the NHL currently with a higher AAV or slightly lower AAV than Rielly. They were signed between 2018 and 2021 when Rielly signed his contract and would be used as comparables. I don’t see one defenseman making more than Rielly who is not a better defenseman than Rielly and see several making less who are better.View attachment 972444

You probably want to rethink the criteria given your standard/comparison is excluded from it.

Mo's contract didn't start until '22, which is why he doesn't show on your list. Two other similar D (Nurse and Jones) also signed right before Rielly as well and are excluded with the same effective year. Personally I'd just look at all D above say 6.5M who signed at UFA age and go from there. I expect he's on the lower end, but not the bottom.

Even on your list, it's really tough to take guys like Trouba and Pickles over Mo. To say otherwise is pretty disingenuous.

 

[Ports]

He is/was easily better than:
Erik Karlsson
Jacob Trouba
Thomas Chabot
MARC EDWARD VLASIC
He was equal to hamilton as both alternated who was better y2y

I love how you just exclude the three example I gave because…..reasons

Rielly signed the contract on October 29th, he finished that season with 68 points, then he had a 49 point pace, than he had a 66 point pace and this year he’s been awful. When he signed that contract, it was easily under market value just based on who signed on the same calendar year as him, on the same cap

I also usually agree with @Stephen with a lot of things but i feel his take on Rielly is a miss. Morgan Rielly didn’t get paid because he was Toronto’s #1, he got paid that much because he by his own merit was a #1, not a top 10-15 dman, but he was comfortably in the 20s.

If prior to this year Morgan Rielly wasn’t a #1 than neither was dougie hamilton or shea theodore as they had very very similar stats over the years of 2018-19 to 2023-2024.

Let’s not rewrite history into something it’s not now.

I gave you objective data. You cherry picked three players and laughably chose Werenski who’s third in the league in scoring one point behind Makar who’s played one more game. This is obviously a subjective discussion. You like Rielly as a defenseman. I don’t. You see an objective list that shows how Rielly isn’t underpaid. I see it differently.

 

[Aashir]

I gave you objective data. You cherry picked three players and laughably chose Werenski who’s third in the league in scoring one point behind Makar who’s played one more game. This is obviously a subjective discussion. You like Rielly as a defenseman. I don’t. You see an objective list that shows how Rielly isn’t underpaid. I see it differently.

weresnki at the time of signing was a 50 point player

he's grown into the deal

 

[Ports]

You probably want to rethink the criteria given your standard/comparison is excluded from it.

Mo's contract didn't start until '22, which is why he doesn't show on your list. Two other similar D (Nurse and Jones) also signed right before Rielly as well and are excluded with the same effective year. Personally I'd just look at all D above say 6.5M who signed at UFA age and go from there. I expect he's on the lower end, but not the bottom.

Even on your list, it's really tough to take guys like Trouba and Pickles over Mo. To say otherwise is pretty disingenuous.

Mo is terrible. Not an NHL defenseman on a cup contender. Trouba hurts people. Mo hurts his team.

 

[Ports]

weresnki at the time of signing was a 50 point player

he's grown into the deal

Werenski was making $5M and a 24 year old stud defenseman on a terrible team who was already better than Rielly when Rielly was signed to his contract.

 

[Stephen]

weresnki at the time of signing was a 50 point player

he's grown into the deal

Werenski had shown high end flashes from the moment he entered the league and looked like a special defenseman paired up with Seth Jones. Took him some up and down years to get to this level but if any franchise is going to pony up for a defenseman it’s going to be an elite skill, 6’3” plus guy who can skate like the wind.

Also another factor at the time of the Rielly, Nurse etc contacts. Rielly is quite a bit shorter than everyone else and doesn’t have the profile of a 6’3” plus franchise defenseman. Call that height-ism what have you but that’s a trait teams were paying big bucks for that year. Fox being an exception but Fox was on another level, being a Norris winner.