Player Discussion Morgan Rielly

[NinjaKick]

Why highly paid professional male athletes get married and start raising kids and a family before they retire in their 30's is f***ed up. You see the immediate performance decline in nearly every instance. Geez... how stupid can they be? Yeah, women have a biological clock for this stuff, but not men.

 

[Ports]

I actually noted that Rielly made a mistake there. I just didn't ignore the contributions of the other 4 people on the ice to blame it all on Rielly.

Nobody is denying that Rielly has had his struggles this year relative to the level he has been for years, but the exaggerations are through the roof. No, his stats don't suck. No, his coach doesn't say he sucks. In fact, he gives him the most minutes on the team. What some on this forum think isn't worth a whole lot.

But your view point is ? Usually when someone is in the vast minority of opinions they realize there might be something to what others have to say. Stubbornly clinging to false narratives and dismissing everyone else out of hand says more about you than anyone else. Unless you’re his agent. Then I could understand your position on the player.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

We're pretty lucky the cap going up so fast will make this contract feel more palpable. In 2-3 years the hit will be a lesser percentage of the cap and will be closer to a $5-6M contract today. It still hurts to have this guy eat up precious cap, play bad defence, and produce little offense when you can't afford to go out and pay for depth scoring.

No more excuses, he simply needs to be better.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Usually when someone is in the vast minority of opinions they realize there might be something to what others have to say. Stubbornly clinging to false narratives and dismissing everyone else out of hand says more about you than anyone else.

Being the minority opinion among those venting in a thread on a message board is pretty meaningless. Majority opinions are often wrong, especially when mob mentality kicks in. If anything, given this board's history of evaluating anything properly (especially defense and defensemen), it's supportive of my position.

The only thing I've dismissed are those false narratives. Your opinion doesn't align with the facts or the opinion of the coach.

 

[Menzinger]

A strong playoffs performance can easily erase his awful play this season. But he's going to need to find a way to step up when needed the most, otherwise the external criticism is going to get very loud for the rest of his deal

 

[thewave]

A strong playoffs performance can easily erase his awful play this season. But he's going to need to find a way to step up when needed the most, otherwise the external criticism is going to get very loud for the rest of his deal

He should in reconditioning during 4 nations. He needs to lose weight and work on quickness

Why highly paid professional male athletes get married and start raising kids and a family before they retire in their 30's is f***ed up. You see the immediate performance decline in nearly every instance. Geez... how stupid can they be? Yeah, women have a biological clock for this stuff, but not men.

I think they meet women and get held hostage. The shotgun comes out and all that. Lol just joking

 

[Ports]

Being the minority opinion among those venting in a thread on a message board is pretty meaningless. Majority opinions are often wrong, especially when mob mentality kicks in. If anything, given this board's history of evaluating anything properly (especially defense and defensemen), it's supportive of my position.

The only thing I've dismissed are those false narratives. Your opinion doesn't align with the facts or the opinion of the coach.

The coach has expressed his concern with his play and said he needs to play better and that Rielly knows he needs to play better and that the coaching staff is trying to help him do that. That’s hardly a vote of confidence on how well he’s playing is it ?

The coach has expressed his concern with his play and said he needs to play better and that Rielly knows he needs to play better and that the coaching staff is trying to help him do that. That’s hardly a vote of confidence on how well he’s playing is it ?

Mob mentality ?

 

[LeafEgo]

Why is a buyout the worst option? If his game doesn’t improve he’ll basically become untradable unless the Leafs eat $2-3M of his contact. That will reduce their cap space for the next five seasons. If they buy him out, it only costs them $25M cash over 10 seasons and saves $21M in cap space over the next 5 seasons. A benefit of at least $5-7M in cap space annually.

Because it would saddle us with a ~3M cap hit every year for the next ten years.

Riellys trade value is not negative, we would get a decent asset back. Dobber still has him ranked in the top 20. The NMC is the obstacle to overcome.

The best outcome is to fix him, as there is no other path to make us whole - the team otherwise absorbs a major hit.

If he's terrible all the way through to the end of the post season than either him or Berube will have to take the fall.

 

[Menzinger]

The math doesn't work on a buyout. Unless he was being incredibly toxic in the dressing room (and buy all accounts he's very well liked) a buyout would be counterproductive

 

[Dekes For Days]

The coach has expressed his concern with his play and said he needs to play better and that Rielly knows he needs to play better and that the coaching staff is trying to help him do that.

Sounds pretty similar to what I said. He's struggled in some areas relative to what he's shown in the past, and the coach needs to support him and put him in better situations to succeed. But he still recognizes that Rielly is a good defenseman that brings value to the team, and that's why he gives him the most minutes on the team.

 

[Stephen]

But your view point is ? Usually when someone is in the vast minority of opinions they realize there might be something to what others have to say. Stubbornly clinging to false narratives and dismissing everyone else out of hand says more about you than anyone else. Unless you’re his agent. Then I could understand your position on the player.

You have entered into a circular conversation about narratives on narratives and opinions on opinions and not the actual player. The easiest thing to do is back up and move along.

On Rielly himself, his decline in play has been noticeable and anyone can freely express their frustration and concern over this.

 

[Fogelhund]

""

 

[Ports]

Because it would saddle us with a ~3M cap hit every year for the next ten years.

Riellys trade value is not negative, we would get a decent asset back. Dobber still has him ranked in the top 20. The NMC is the obstacle to overcome.

The best outcome is to fix him, as there is no other path to make us whole - the team otherwise absorbs a major hit.

If he's terrible all the way through to the end of the post season than either him or Berube will have to take the fall.

Obviously fixing him would be great but trading him will definitely cost them something in either taking back a bad contract, eating some of his cap hit or giving up a coveted pick or prospect. Other teams scout the Leafs heavily and nobody will take on 5x$7.5M on a declining asset. The buyout route is more realistic because they don’t need his approval like they do to trade him and they actually save $21M on the cap over the next five years including almost $6M next season along. Here are the actual numbers. Look at the Savings column. Those numbers are the difference between the Initial Cap hit of $7.5M and the resulting Cap Hit column. For example in 2025-2026 they actual cap hit after the buyout would only be $1,633,333. I got these numbers directly off the Cap Wages website. People need to understand the huge benefit to the team on Salary Cap Savings if they choose this direction. I think Rielly’s reputation as good person, team player makes this seem like a ruthless move so people are rejecting it out of hand but it actually benefits him as well because it pays him 2/3 of his remaining contract plus he becomes a free agent and can sign anywhere he likes for his market value.

 

[Zack47]

Trade him, Domi, and Robertson for a third line center and a young defenseman making 3 million. Does Nashville have defensemen to supplement O'Reilly?

 

[thewave]

Obviously fixing him would be great but trading him will definitely cost them something in either taking back a bad contract, eating some of his cap hit or giving up a coveted pick or prospect. Other teams scout the Leafs heavily and nobody will take on 5x$7.5M on a declining asset. The buyout route is more realistic because they don’t need his approval like they do to trade him and they actually save $21M on the cap over the next five years including almost $6M next season along. Here are the actual numbers. Look at the Savings column. Those numbers are the difference between the Initial Cap hit of $7.5M and the resulting Cap Hit column. For example in 2025-2026 they actual cap hit after the buyout would only be $1,633,333. I got these numbers directly off the Cap Wages website. People need to understand the huge benefit to the team on Salary Cap Savings if they choose this direction. I think Rielly’s reputation as good person, team player makes this seem like a ruthless move so people are rejecting it out of hand but it actually benefits him as well because it pays him 2/3 of his remaining contract plus he becomes a free agent and can sign anywhere he likes for his market value.
View attachment 970761

Is the new CBA next year? Probably some compliance buyout will show up

 

[Dekes For Days]

""

I'm glad that the coach is supporting him, and I'm glad that they're trying to get him to not be focused on the mistakes, and start being more aggressive. Hopefully that will help him resettle.

But the fact that Rielly was ever trying to "eliminate risk from his game" is concerning, and really explains some of his struggles. Generating offense requires some level of acceptable risk. No risk, no reward. It's about balance and timing, not eliminating risk completely. I really hope that was paraphrased or something and that wasn't a directive from Berube, because yikes.

You have entered into a circular conversation about narratives on narratives and opinions on opinions and not the actual player. The easiest thing to do is back up and move along.

I was discussing the actual player. Interesting way of "moving along".

 

[LeafEgo]

Obviously fixing him would be great but trading him will definitely cost them something in either taking back a bad contract, eating some of his cap hit or giving up a coveted pick or prospect. Other teams scout the Leafs heavily and nobody will take on 5x$7.5M on a declining asset. The buyout route is more realistic because they don’t need his approval like they do to trade him and they actually save $21M on the cap over the next five years including almost $6M next season along. Here are the actual numbers. Look at the Savings column. Those numbers are the difference between the Initial Cap hit of $7.5M and the resulting Cap Hit column. For example in 2025-2026 they actual cap hit after the buyout would only be $1,633,333. I got these numbers directly off the Cap Wages website. People need to understand the huge benefit to the team on Salary Cap Savings if they choose this direction. I think Rielly’s reputation as good person, team player makes this seem like a ruthless move so people are rejecting it out of hand but it actually benefits him as well because it pays him 2/3 of his remaining contract plus he becomes a free agent and can sign anywhere he likes for his market value.
View attachment 970761

I think Rielly would return assets, so we're pretty far apart on his valuation.

But nevertheless, think about it like this: what would the Leafs give up to avoid a ~30M cap hit? We've seen multiple teams give up a 1st for just 6M relief. Would nobody even take Rielly for free plus a 1st?

Its not impossible there's a buyout in his future, but it is the worst outcome (financially, larger than Babs parachute pay). And there's a reasonable chance he would go on to be one of the leagues better offensive defensmen under a new coach on a new team.

 

[DuklaNation]

Leafs have needed a true PP QB for a while now. Rielly isn't it.

 

[thewave]

Shocked the team hasn't approached him. What's going on man. Your heads not with it, we need you. Shape up or if you aren't feeling it give us a list of teams and we can retain on you.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Is the new CBA next year? Probably some compliance buyout will show up

Not unless the owner-player revenue distribution is greatly altered. Bettman keeps saying he expects a deal to be done quickly, which suggests the owners won't push for big changes.

 

[Stephen]

Shocked the team hasn't approached him. What's going on man. Your heads not with it, we need you. Shape up or if you aren't feeling it give us a list of teams and we can retain on you.

Sounds like they've talked to him, given him the gentle support. If he doesn't shape up I think that tone will change over time into how do we move on.

 

[thewave]

Sounds like they've talked to him, given him the gentle support. If he doesn't shape up I think that tone will change over time into how do we move on.

I hope they have. I was never a worshipper of the guy and was one of his hardest critiques all the way back if anyone cares to look, but, never did I imagine this kind of decline at this age.

 

[Ports]

Trade him, Domi, and Robertson for a third line center and a young defenseman making 3 million. Does Nashville have defensemen to supplement O'Reilly?

That would be great but Domi is another underperforming contract and Robertson is what ? Good young defenseman being paid $3M are like gold in today’s NHL. I can’t see Nashville doing that without the Leafs eating some of those contacts.

 

[Ports]

Sounds pretty similar to what I said. He's struggled in some areas relative to what he's shown in the past, and the coach needs to support him and put him in better situations to succeed. But he still recognizes that Rielly is a good defenseman that brings value to the team, and that's why he gives him the most minutes on the team.

The coaches job is to win not just coddle his players and worry about a 12 year veterans inability to play within their system. Your second sentence is total speculation meant to support your narrative. It’s not Berube’s job to decide which players bring value to the team or whether they should be traded. He can only play the players on the team’s roster and has little leeway when it comes to Rielly given their lack of depth on the back end. You have no idea what is said behind doors in the coaches office about Rielly’s struggles.

 

[Ports]

I think Rielly would return assets, so we're pretty far apart on his valuation.

But nevertheless, think about it like this: what would the Leafs give up to avoid a ~30M cap hit? We've seen multiple teams give up a 1st for just 6M relief. Would nobody even take Rielly for free plus a 1st?

Its not impossible there's a buyout in his future, but it is the worst outcome (financially, larger than Babs parachute pay). And there's a reasonable chance he would go on to be one of the leagues better offensive defensmen under a new coach on a new team.

What do you care if the team pays out $25M over 10 years with a hugely rising cap while at the same time saving $21M in cap space in the first 5 years including almost $6M next season alone. MLSE can afford the cash cost especially if it buys them deeper playoff runs. One more home playoff date per year would pay the $2.5M they would owe Rielly.
I’ll take my chances that he never becomes one of the leagues better offensive defenseman in his thirties when he can’t quarterback a PP and will likely never be a top pairing defenseman again given his well known defensive deficiencies.

Shocked the team hasn't approached him. What's going on man. Your heads not with it, we need you. Shape up or if you aren't feeling it give us a list of teams and we can retain on you.

Maybe they have but it’s likely an off season discussion.