Player Discussion Morgan Rielly

[likecheese]

We have shown to be a better defensive team when he’s not in the line up it isn’t a coincidence

What do you even lose by trying him on the wing, it's a net positive any way you look at it just to remove him from your D unit.

 

[supermann_98]

Reilly can and does defend. He takes on the most minutes on the team, takes on the worst partners on the team, and is putting up better defensive results this year than half our regular defensemen. Now, that's not to say that defending is Rielly's relative strength. It's not. But that's not all defensemen do. They have offensive and transition responsibilities too, and Rielly is quite good at those aspects.

It mainly says that people don't understand how +/- works and they should stop jumping to conclusions based on such a bad stat.

When a player is on the ice 5v5 and a goal is scored for his team he is a +1, when a player is on the ice and a goal is scored against his team he is -1, therefore I think we all know how it works.

When the net difference in +/- between Reilly and those other guys is almost 30 goals it's a MAJOR problem, I don't care HOW you care to spin it. There's a reason Bobby Orr once led the league in +/- with a +121 or whatever it was, and it wasn't because he was a bad defenceman

 

[robertmac43]

The hate on this guy is wild. If we get playoff Mo none of this noise matters. Remember a couple of years ago when he was mid in the regular season and then puck drop in April came around and he was a stud again?

 

[Dekes For Days]

When a player is on the ice 5v5 and a goal is scored for his team he is a +1, when a player is on the ice and a goal is scored against his team he is -1, therefore I think we all know how it works.

Okay, and Rielly is -3 at 5v5 (after being +79 over the last 7 years). You're missing the why, and the other 13 minuses.

 

[Ports]

Leafs Nation bullseye was bound to key in on Mo, he hasn't been near his usual level.

The team has the hammer with Rielly. Will they use it ? Rantanen a far better play was traded because Colorado is willing to upset some fans in order to win a cup. Does the Leafs brain trust have the same courage ? They haven’t show that so far.

Being on the ice when a goal was scored does not mean you were the cause, and two goals do not define a player or season. He is not a net liability.

I have. Your turn.

Time to put the pom poms away.

 

[Blanche Blanche]

Reilly can and does defend. He takes on the most minutes on the team, takes on the worst partners on the team, and is putting up better defensive results this year than half our regular defensemen. Now, that's not to say that defending is Rielly's relative strength. It's not. But that's not all defensemen do. They have offensive and transition responsibilities too, and Rielly is quite good at those aspects.

It mainly says that people don't understand how +/- works and they should stop jumping to conclusions based on such a bad stat.

Jesus lmao.

Hey Tessa... GTFO

 

[Ports]

The hate on this guy is wild. If we get playoff Mo none of this noise matters. Remember a couple of years ago when he was mid in the regular season and then puck drop in April came around and he was a stud again?

Who hates the guy? It’s called criticism. I hate the way he plays not him personally. We can’t count on anything from two years ago. He’s been brutal since then and this season it looks like he’s not even trying to defend. His defenders hope for a playoff rebound but he’s making almost double what the other defenseman on the team make and he’s been a liability for a year and a half. Will he all of a sudden start trying in the playoffs and if that’s the case they shouldn’t have to pay him to play 82 games in the regular season. Can’t have it both ways.

 

[Ports]

Jesus lmao.

Hey Tessa... GTFO

Some people playing checkers on this thread while others are playing chess.

 

[Ports]

As of February 2024 the team’s record without Rielly in the lineup during the two previous seasons was 18-2-1. Hard to explain that incredible winning record without him in the lineup away but I’m sure someone will try.

 

[Stephen]

The hate on this guy is wild. If we get playoff Mo none of this noise matters. Remember a couple of years ago when he was mid in the regular season and then puck drop in April came around and he was a stud again?

This myth of Playoff Morgan needs to be tempered. He's basically had 2 good series against Tampa Bay in 2022 and 2023... and "remember that time he did his job?" isn't exactly a good deflection for all the times he doesn't do his job.

 

[1specter]

This myth of Playoff Morgan needs to be tempered. He's basically had 2 good series against Tampa Bay in 2022 and 2023... and "remember that time he did his job?" isn't exactly a good deflection for all the times he doesn't do his job.

He was also our best player against Florida and it wasn't really close either. The myth of Rielly being shit for a number of years also needs to die.

 

[Stephen]

As of February 2024 the team’s record without Rielly in the lineup during the two previous seasons was 18-2-1. Hard to explain that incredible winning record without him in the lineup away but I’m sure someone will try.

The good version of Rielly is kind of a chaos agent, trading stability and structured defense for sometimes high risk offensive chances.

So it makes sense that when he's not productive and you subtract his chaos element from the back end that it's a net positive for a short term run.

 

[HolyCrap]

Some people playing checkers on this thread while others are playing chess.

Apparently some are sniffing glue too.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Reilly can and does defend. He takes on the most minutes on the team, takes on the worst partners on the team, and is putting up better defensive results this year than half our regular defensemen. Now, that's not to say that defending is Rielly's relative strength. It's not. But that's not all defensemen do. They have offensive and transition responsibilities too, and Rielly is quite good at those aspects.

It mainly says that people don't understand how +/- works and they should stop jumping to conclusions based on such a bad stat.

People have to stop saying that +/- is a "bad" stat. It can be a flawed stat because it is heavily influenced by the quality of a player's teammates and team performance and you can't judge a player's defensive acumen solely on that. For example, a very good defenceman can have a terrible +/- playing on a poor team. However, it can be a useful stat when comparing players on the same team. When the differential varies from a -16 to the next worst of -3 among regular players on the team, then it does tell us something is amiss about the player. It's one of the reasons that many in hockey are alarmed about Rielly.

Rielly has not been a very good defenceman this season, by anyone's definition but a few. For one, his strength is supposed to be offence and skating ability. To many observers, he has looked slower. He's also not producing like he has in the past. Couple that with what I consider poor defensive IQ i.e. defensive decisions on when to pinch, not knowing who to cover, bad reads on 2 on 1's and getting outmuscled along the boards and in front of the net. At times he has appeared lackadaiscal on coverage, but I blame that on poor conditioning.

Everyone likes Rielly as a person. He's proven to be a great Leaf, loyal to the team, standup guy in interviews, and sticks up for his teammates. We want to see him succeed. But for what he is being paid, and what he is delivering, he is having a poor season.

 

[Racer88]

Considering that a lot of people around here still think of it as a defensive stat, no, they don't understand it. It also doesn't include every goal, and gets skewed by the situations you play. He's -14 from playing PP and goalie pulled situations, which says very little about him. He's -2 otherwise, for pretty much the complete opposite reason than a bunch of people are claiming.

So Reilly is at minus 14 and I believe his closest team mate is at minus 5. Is Morgan the only one put in those tough spots you mentioned
No amount of wiggle changes the fact that he is poor defensively this year especially when the eye test backs it up

 

[Stephen]

He was also our best player against Florida and it wasn't really close either. The myth of Rielly being shit for a number of years also needs to die.

That Florida series was pure garbage for the whole team. That wasn’t a championship standard level of play.

Morgan has been absolutely terrible at different times in his career. 2021 was bad. 2022 was a big bounce back.

 

[Dekes For Days]

People have to stop saying that +/- is a "bad" stat.

But it is objectively a bad stat. It arbitrarily includes and excludes different goals for and against in different game states and skews based on player situation. You don't actually get meaningful information from it, and it often paints the wrong picture about the player (even ones on the same team). You can just look at GF% in each game state and get the same information in a better form.

Rielly has not been a very good defenceman this season, by anyone's definition but a few. For one, his strength is supposed to be offence and skating ability. To many observers, he has looked slower. He's also not producing like he has in the past.

Rielly has struggled a bit in certain specific areas, but he has not been nearly as bad as some people here are pretending. He looks like somebody trying to adjust his game to a system that doesn't suit him as well. He's going to look slower when we're not utilizing his rushing ability as much. His production is going to drop when he's focusing on defense, getting his PP time lowered, and the team is struggling to convert 5v5 while he's out there. The solution should be utilizing him a bit more to his strengths and giving him time, not calling him names, acting like he's trash, trying to rewrite history, and trying to purge him.

 

[Ports]

The good version of Rielly is kind of a chaos agent, trading stability and structured defense for sometimes high risk offensive chances.

So it makes sense that when he's not productive and you subtract his chaos element from the back end that it's a net positive for a short term run.

Chaos is not what you want out of a so-called top pairing defenseman. It’s over two years so not a short term run.

 

[Ports]

But it is objectively a bad stat. It arbitrarily includes and excludes different goals for and against in different game states and skews based on player situation. You don't actually get meaningful information from it, and it often paints the wrong picture about the player (even ones on the same team). You can just look at GF% in each game state and get the same information in a better form.

Rielly has struggled a bit in certain specific areas, but he has not been nearly as bad as some people here are pretending. He looks like somebody trying to adjust his game to a system that doesn't suit him as well. He's going to look slower when we're not utilizing his rushing ability as much. His production is going to drop when he's focusing on defense, getting his PP time lowered, and the team is struggling to convert 5v5 while he's out there. The solution should be utilizing him a bit more to his strengths and giving him time, not calling him names, acting like he's trash, trying to rewrite history, and trying to purge him.

He’s a professional athlete who’s paid millions to perform and he’s not coming close to delivering including poor overall effort. Why shouldn’t people call him out ? He doesn’t need a lawyer representing his interests here. He needs to start earning his pay cheque.

 

[Stephen]

But it is objectively a bad stat. It arbitrarily includes and excludes different goals for and against in different game states and skews based on player situation. You don't actually get meaningful information from it, and it often paints the wrong picture about the player (even ones on the same team). You can just look at GF% in each game state and get the same information in a better form.

At -16 on January 25, Morgan Rielly holds the 23rd worst minus rating in the entire league. The only guy doing worse than him on a playoff team is Carter Verhaeghe.

So even if Plus Minus isn't a stat that tracks everything that accurately, when it's that bad, it's telling you something the eye test is telling you.

 

[IPS]

He has been beyond awful these last few weeks, since the new year. Like just nothing redeemable about his game whatsoever. We have 3 stable D in the top-4 who hold the fort and pray Rielly doesn't f*** it all up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

At -16 on January 25, Morgan Rielly holds the 23rd worst minus rating in the entire league. The only guy doing worse than him on a playoff team is Carter Verhaeghe.

So even if Plus Minus isn't a stat that tracks everything that accurately, when it's that bad, it's telling you something the eye test is telling you.

It's funny you mention Verhaeghe, because he's actually gone through a similar experience as Rielly. This guy is +75 over the last 4 years and suddenly he's -18, with significant separation from the rest of the team. Did he turn into a pile of trash as well? No, of course not.

He, like Rielly, plays a lot of the goalie pulled minutes on a team with one of the worst goal differentials with the goalie pulled.

He, like Rielly, plays a lot of the PP minutes on a team that allows some of the most goals against on the PP.

He, like Rielly, has had a positive GF% at 5v5 for many consecutive years. He, like Rielly, has a positive xGF% this year, but a negative GF%. The only difference is that his is a result of abnormally poor goaltending when he's been on the ice, instead of abnormally poor conversion from the team while he's been on the ice.

There are many reasons why +/- can fluctuate good or bad. That's one of the reasons it's a bad stat. It doesn't really tell you anything until you look deeper in ways you should have done with better stats in the first place. If anything, when the number is that bad, it tends to influence perception, exacerbate confirmation bias, and make eye tests even less reliable than they usually are.

 

[ULF_55]

Rielly has been 1st. pairing defender in Toronto for years.
But every team has 1st. pairing defenders, so that's not exactly unique or impressive.
He's been better, but he's always had a limitation with regards to defending.

Hasn't he usually been out with the best offensive players, including powerplay and extra many situations. So yes, when Mr. Cute tosses a breakaway pass to the opposition, they all suffer. It isn't just Rielly taking a negative it is the usual suspects.
He is still one of their better defensemen but it isn't like they have a great group on defense.

Rielly doesn't PK for a reason, he isn't a good defender, he's usually a good defenseman, a #2.
Quinn Hughes doesn't PK either, but he's an exceptional defenseman, a #1.
(If Rielly is a #1, are Hughes, Makar, Fox, Hedman, Jossi #0?)

Due to the fact he is out there on the PP and extra man situation, where he's suffered the greatest minuses, that why he's the runaway leader for points for the Leafs defenders.
He signed a team friendly contract, it just might not age well.

IMO, he is not waiving for a trade out of Toronto.
I doubt they buy him out.

Maybe he could talk with John ...

Masters:
Unlike last year, John Tavares entered the summer feeling relatively healthy, which has helped his off-season training
"Just trying to be a little quicker & lighter on my feet ... done some really good work with the development staff already"

And let's stop with the "he's good for 7 games a year in the playoff" defense. He's supposed to be their best defenseman, you would think being good in the playoffs is the bare minimum isn't it?

 

[mikeyz]

Serious question.

Would you guys consider trying to convert him to a winger if you were Berube?

 

[thewave]

Serious question.

Would you guys consider trying to convert him to a winger if you were Berube?

He will get lost though he may hit the net being closer.