Player Discussion Morgan Rielly

[Maple Leaf]

This is the dumbest take in this thread. Well done.

Rielly is a common denominator
Loss after loss
Time is up
Cya

 

[rumman]

Rielly is a common denominator
Loss after loss
Time is up
Cya

Indeed….

 

[socko]

Shanny did launch the careers of Dubas and Keefe. So he did accomplish that. They had 1/2 a decade to learn the NHL. Yes, both failed miserably as newbies at their position. But they are better now.

Are they really? I can think of just about anyone and I'd rather have that guy than Dubas today as my GM.

 

[thewave]

This is the dumbest take in this thread. Well done.

He isn't very reliable and on the PP his useless shot really negatively impacts the team. He looks good with some partners back there and with others totally exposed.

Marner Rielly JT are all almost useless on the PP. Defenders only need to worry about AM and WN.

 

[socko]

He isn't very reliable and on the PP his useless shot really negatively impacts the team. He looks good with some partners back there and with others totally exposed.

Marner Rielly JT are all almost useless on the PP. Defenders only need to worry about AM and WN.

If they want a shooter on the PP, I can't think of anyone even close who would add the value of Stamkos. Nobody scores from the blueline anymore with any regularity. That was the 80s. I'm not the biggest Stamkos fan but he would add a lot to the PP.

Although I get it if people want a PP QB to replace Rielly with a more tippable shot. Rielly's shot is not good for tipping, it's a wrist shot, that flutters, and is often high in the air. Lidstrom was a perfect example of what you want in a PP QB. A lot of people don't realize how limp Lidstrom's shot was, but it was like 85 mph in the hardest shot competition. However, it was a slap shot, that didn't flutter, was consistently like 6 inches off the ice surface, it almost never got blocked, and Lidstrom would get it through traffic. So it didn't really matter that it was only going 85. But then we would also need a net front guy that's better than Tavares, if we went that route.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

So I just ask myself if working with Rielly and building above and around him works. And I don’t think it does.

parting ways with Marner helps.

 

[Zybalto]

Must be nice as a Panthers fan to see Bob once again saving the day while our fanbase is still projecting on our own lineup because it doesn't have a playoff goalie.

Powerplay issues aside, the rhetoric around here is so divorced from the numbers it's downright silly.

Riellys ranking among the 60ish dmen over the last 3 playoffs with 20+ games:

Goals per game: 2nd
Points per game: 5th
5v5 Goal differential: 3rd

Is he REALLY a problem on the team?

I don't think many out there realize just how awful our bottom 6 have been including relative expectations and the projection on performing players is not good.

I mean, just take away Rielly, Marner and Matthews for example and look at what happens to this team 5v5 over the last 3 playoffs:

Rielly 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.07
Goals against/60: 1.55

Marner 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.08
Goals against/60: 1.72

Matthews 5v5:
Goals for/60: 2.81
Goals against/60: 2.06

The entire rest of the team without them:
Goals for/60: 1.57
Goals against/60: 3.14

These arnt "advanced" stats by any means. Literal Goals scored for and against rates. It's one thing to expect our bottom six guys not be elite (they have averaged above a 50% goal differential the last few years) and it's another to expect them to hold their own but to have maybe the worst performing bottom 6 over the last half decade of playoff hockey has just been brutal (and even worse, no one is talking about it at all)

Goaltending is tied into this too (on both sides of the puck) but I'm tired of seeing fingers pointed, not just in a bad area but so obviously in the wrong direction.

I'm good with hearing more about too much cap being spent in the wrong areas but even then, the areas we have failed in the most occupy about 1% of the conversation around here.

Numbers and eye test agree with me. I hope Rielly plays this way the rest of his career in the playoffs with us and he's a steal at his caphit IMO.

 

[IPS]

Must be nice as a Panthers fan to see Bob once again saving the day while our fanbase is still projecting on our own lineup because it doesn't have a playoff goalie.

Powerplay issues aside, the rhetoric around here is so divorced from the numbers it's downright silly.

Riellys ranking among the 60ish dmen over the last 3 playoffs with 20+ games:

Goals per game: 2nd
Points per game: 5th
5v5 Goal differential: 3rd

Is he REALLY a problem on the team?

I don't think many out there realize just how awful our bottom 6 have been including relative expectations and the projection on performing players is not good.

I mean, just take away Rielly, Marner and Matthews for example and look at what happens to this team 5v5 over the last 3 playoffs:

Rielly 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.07
Goals against/60: 1.55

Marner 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.08
Goals against/60: 1.72

Matthews 5v5:
Goals for/60: 2.81
Goals against/60: 2.06

The entire rest of the team without them:
Goals for/60: 1.57
Goals against/60: 3.14

These arnt "advanced" stats by any means. Literal Goals scored for and against rates. It's one thing to expect our bottom six guys not be elite (they have averaged above a 50% goal differential the last few years) and it's another to expect them to hold their own but to have maybe the worst performing bottom 6 over the last half decade of playoff hockey has just been brutal (and even worse, no one is talking about it at all)

Goaltending is tied into this too (on both sides of the puck) but I'm tired of seeing fingers pointed, not just in a bad area but so obviously in the wrong direction.

I'm good with hearing more about too much cap being spent in the wrong areas but even then, the areas we have failed in the most occupy about 1% of the conversation around here.

Numbers and eye test agree with me. I hope Rielly plays this way the rest of his career in the playoffs with us and he's a steal at his caphit IMO.

Game 5:

• Joseph Woll:
  • Saves: 34
  • Shots Against: 35
  • Save Percentage (SV%): 0.971
  • Result: 2-1 OT win

Game 6:

• Joseph Woll:
  • Saves: 22
  • Shots Against: 23
  • Save Percentage (SV%): 0.957
  • Result: 2-1 win

Game 7:

• Ilya Samsonov:
  • Saves: 29
  • Shots Against: 31
  • Save Percentage (SV%): 0.935
• Result: 2-1 OT loss

The Leafs goaltending very obviously gave the team a chance to win the series, with Matthews out and all. But please keep maintaining your unhealthy delusion that the core can't be blamed for anything. $22M of complete dead cap in Marner and Tavares combining for 5 points in 7 games apparently isn't even worthy of acknowledgment from you.

"Goaltending is tied into this too (on both sides of the puck) but I'm tired of seeing fingers pointed, not just in a bad area but so obviously in the wrong direction."

The hubris here

 

[BertCorbeau]

Rielly’s been one of the core players that has actually typically stepped up his game in the playoffs while also giving them reasonable contract demands.

That being said it’s clear they need another top calibre d-man and also a d-man to replace Rielly on the top PP unit.

 

[Zybalto]

Game 5:

• Joseph Woll:
  • Saves: 34
  • Shots Against: 35
  • Save Percentage (SV%): 0.971
  • Result: 2-1 OT win

Game 6:

• Joseph Woll:
  • Saves: 22
  • Shots Against: 23
  • Save Percentage (SV%): 0.957
  • Result: 2-1 win

Game 7:

• Ilya Samsonov:
  • Saves: 29
  • Shots Against: 31
  • Save Percentage (SV%): 0.935
• Result: 2-1 OT loss

The Leafs goaltending very obviously gave the team a chance to win the series, with Matthews out and all. But please keep maintaining your unhealthy delusion that the core can't be blamed for anything. $22M of complete dead cap in Marner and Tavares combining for 5 points in 7 games apparently isn't even worthy of acknowledgment from you.

"Goaltending is tied into this too (on both sides of the puck) but I'm tired of seeing fingers pointed, not just in a bad area but so obviously in the wrong direction."

The hubris here

Pick out a small sample involving our rookie backup coming in and showing the team what real playoff goaltending is (Woll now career 3-0, .933 in the playoffs vs 2 sub .900 starters the last 3 years) after our starter gets pulled for sucking for the second playoff series in a row with both our top scorers injured and then our starter games back and loses another game in which our top players once again had 0 support and that's supposed to count against what I said?

Hubris is right.

 

[IPS]

Pick out a small sample involving our rookie backup coming in and showing the team what real playoff goaltending is (Woll now career 3-0, .933 in the playoffs vs 2 sub .900 starters the last 3 years) after our starter gets pulled for sucking for the second playoff series in a row with both our top scorers injured and then our starter games back and loses another game in which our top players once again had 0 support and that's supposed to count against what I said?

Hubris is right.

So where were you during the playoffs then? How come you weren't involved in the discussions about the series and how goaltending was just costing us the whole thing? If you actually watched the games, you'd notice very quickly that goaltending is the least of the issues, and our underproducing core is the major problem. But I'm starting to believe you don't actually watch the playoffs.

that's all you posted during the series. If you came in with all of your nonsense about how it's all the goalies fault you'd have been laughed out of the GDT's and PGT's because people who actually watched the games know that's clearly not the case.

You literally went MIA for the entire playoffs and you're only coming back with this narrative over a month later. Here you are yet again with the precise same narrative you use every year to try and absolve the core of choking yet again.

 

[Zybalto]

Rielly’s been one of the core players that has actually typically stepped up his game in the playoffs while also giving them reasonable contract demands.

That being said it’s clear they need another top calibre d-man and also a d-man to replace Rielly on the top PP unit.

Yup,


Outsude of a quality starter, focusing on the PP is a huge must. They tried that with the failed Klingberg experiment last season and a healthy Timmons looked really good but you can't count on him to stay healthy. The Leafs were weird in that they had an Oilers like PP at times and then a worst in the league PP at other times. I wonder how much the coaching change will smooth this over.

 

[Zybalto]

So where were you during the playoffs then? How come you weren't involved in the discussions about the series and how goaltending was just costing us the whole thing? If you actually watched the games, you'd notice very quickly that goaltending is the least of the issues, and our underproducing core is the major problem. But I'm starting to believe you don't actually watch the playoffs.

View attachment 880892

that's all you posted during the series. If you came in with all of your nonsense about how it's all the goalies fault you'd have been laughed out of the GDT's and PGT's because people who actually watched the games know that's clearly not the case.

You literally went MIA for the entire playoffs and you're only coming back with this narrative over a month later. Here you are yet again with the precise same narrative you use every year to try and absolve the core of choking yet again.

Heh, you probably notice that posting pattern from me for years as I don't work a desk job and I post in huge bursts when I get the time. A lot of my discussion during the playoffs is in the pub with few pops in me.

No need to get all worked up because I push back against an obviously stupid narrative in this thread to the point you feverishly have to go looking through my past posts. Goaltending is key in the playoffs and we havnt got it compared to the teams we have faced . That's not a controversial take. Neither is the fact we've had maybe the worst bottom 6 in the playoffs.

Can you believe the team with the worst PP, brutal starting goaltending and awful bottom 6 lost in the playoffs? Not too hard to believe right?

Riellys a stud in the playoffs. Any one with working eyes gets that. No need to throw him under the bus too. The other core guys have more warts but picking on Rielly is next level.

 

[IPS]

Heh, you probably notice that posting pattern from me for years as I don't work a desk job and I post in huge bursts when I get the time. A lot of my discussion during the playoffs is in the pub with few pops in me.

No need to get all worked up because I push back against an obviously stupid narrative in this thread to the point you feverishly have to go looking through my past posts. Goaltending is key in the playoffs and we havnt got it compared to the teams we have faced . That's not a controversial take. Neither is the fact we've had maybe the worst bottom 6 in the playoffs.

Can you believe the team with the worst PP, brutal starting goaltending and awful bottom 6 lost in the playoffs? Not too hard to believe right?

Riellys a stud in the playoffs. Any one with working eyes gets that. No need to throw him under the bus too. The other core guys have more warts but picking on Rielly is next level.

Understandable, but your blame on the goaltending still looks woefully out of place given how the last playoff series transpired. This was nowhere near the same Rielly we saw in previous playoffs, he was bad most games.

 

[Zybalto]

Understandable, but your blame on the goaltending still looks woefully out of place given how the last playoff series transpired. This was nowhere near the same Rielly we saw in previous playoffs, he was bad most games.

I think more of the problem was that he wasn't great in ALL the games and didn't look good on that last goal (Leafy way to end it).

That image is going to burn into many minds but in the end he was still a huge plus for the series IMO.

It's like looking at this crazy number that shows both shows the symmetry between the Leafs and Oilers when it comes to just how hard the top players are carrying poor support/goaltending and just how little credit Rielly has gotten in here.

Out of all 149 players with 300+ 5v5 minutes the last 3 years, here are top 3 players for GF% REL. (Goal differential relative team mates)

1. Rielly: +28.22
2. Marner: +22.32
3. McDavid: + 21.33

(I know seeing Marners name might trigger some folks but it is what it is)

if the Leafs had a decent PP, they would still win a few rounds like the Oilers but I'm afraid the Oil might fail with the goaltending they have (shocked they beat Dallas and even more shocked Skinner was probably the MVP in the game)

Not only is Rielly 2nd for goals per game and 5th for points per game but he's miles ahead of anyone else when it comes to making a difference on the ice 5v5 compared with the rest of his team. The 5v5 MVP of the league.

Statistically, Rielly would be in playoff Norris candidate over the last 3 years and I think he's looked pretty good too.

I think maybe one of the ways it doesn't feel this way to some I'd that it's a differential of how the team played versus a player and not the player himself but I think that just gets back to my original complaint that no one is talking about the huge suck the bottom 6 has been.

 

[IPS]

I think more of the problem was that he wasn't great in ALL the games and didn't look good on that last goal (Leafy way to end it).

That image is going to burn into many minds but in the end he was still a huge plus for the series IMO.

It's like looking at this crazy number that shows both shows the symmetry between the Leafs and Oilers when it comes to just how hard the top players are carrying poor support/goaltending and just how little credit Rielly has gotten in here.

Out of all 149 players with 300+ 5v5 minutes the last 3 years, here are top 3 players for GF% REL. (Goal differential relative team mates)

1. Rielly: +28.22
2. Marner: +22.32
3. McDavid: + 21.33

(I know seeing Marners name might trigger some folks but it is what it is)

Well you're definitely not wrong there. A lot of us have been seeing the same pattern of advanced stats posted year in and year out and we've still yet to see any real breakout from any of our core in the playoffs. McDavid and Drai are just straight up on another level and they've beaten several great goalies along the way as well. Any comparison to other team's cores is rightfully going to be scoffed at whether you like or not.

if the Leafs had a decent PP, they would still win a few rounds like the Oilers but I'm afraid the Oil might fail with the goaltending they have (shocked they beat Dallas and even more shocked Skinner was probably the MVP in the game)

Not only is Rielly 2nd for goals per game and 5th for points per game but he's miles ahead of anyone else when it comes to making a difference on the ice 5v5 compared with the rest of his team. The 5v5 MVP of the league.

Statistically, Rielly would be in playoff Norris candidate over the last 3 years and I think he's looked pretty good too.

I think maybe one of the ways it doesn't feel this way to some I'd that it's a differential of how the team played versus a player and not the player himself but I think that just gets back to my original complaint that no one is talking about the huge suck the bottom 6 has been.

"If" the Leafs had a decent PP is not the right way to frame it. They have a bad PP because the core can't get it done. 1/22 is not just some mystical bad luck, it's the same guys out there for every PP and they can't get it done. Rielly especially has been looking like a real weak link on this PP, along with Marner.

The bottom 6 also sucks because it's the core taking all the money too. You really have to see just where the problems are coming from.

 

[mapleleaf979]

If your a smart hockey fan, u know the following statement is true.

In playoff style hockey where grit, pain tolerance, heart matter, Morgan Reilly is invisible.

 

[Skullz]

Was surprised at how poor (and slow) he looked last night. Very little explosiveness, and OEL seemed far more dangerous with the puck than I've seen from Rielly in some time. If things don't change I would likely swap them on PP1.

Also, Marner has now worn the A for quite a few games in a row now? Has Rielly been stripped, and why?

 

[ACC1224]

Was surprised at how poor (and slow) he looked last night. Very little explosiveness, and OEL seemed far more dangerous with the puck than I've seen from Rielly in some time. If things don't change I would likely swap them on PP1.

Also, Marner has now worn the A for quite a few games in a row now? Has Rielly been stripped, and why?

I doubt he’s been stripped. He’ll wear an ‘A’ tonight or Saturday I would think.

 

[Stephen]

Was surprised at how poor (and slow) he looked last night. Very little explosiveness, and OEL seemed far more dangerous with the puck than I've seen from Rielly in some time. If things don't change I would likely swap them on PP1.

Also, Marner has now worn the A for quite a few games in a row now? Has Rielly been stripped, and why?

Rielly’s game has been sluggish at times for years now. When he was younger I thought he rushed too much and needed to develop an off speed pace to control the game as all the great defenders are capable of doing… but when he’s not flying he just looks flat footed and… sluggish.

 

[JL17]

He just had a kid. Sleepless nights out of a routine. Blah blah. That’s the same excuses that were used for Tavares and his poor play.

 

[Skullz]

Rielly’s game has been sluggish at times for years now. When he was younger I thought he rushed too much and needed to develop an off speed pace to control the game as all the great defenders are capable of doing… but when he’s not flying he just looks flat footed and… sluggish.

Yup. He seemed heavy to me. Hoping that a really good partner like Tanev will help him. Definitely hasn't been as dynamic as he used to be. Cuz I was shocked at how dangerous OEL looked, think I just haven't seen a leaf defencemen play so well in the opposing end in a while.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

He’s still our best defenceman but we need an elite guy to bump him down to no. 2.

 

[thewave]

He just had a kid. Sleepless nights out of a routine. Blah blah. That’s the same excuses that were used for Tavares and his poor play.

He doesn't have a 10k SF Home with a private bedroom out of the way for game nights?

 

[meefer]

For a decade we've been talking about finding a player to play with Morgan Rielly, but his sputtering offense, terrible special teams contributions on the powerplay, inconsistent and sloppy defensive play, that daydreaming sequence in the Game 7 OT loss to Boston, I don't think he's part of a winning recipe.

We have to find a defenseman who can supplant him in the "number one" role that will bump him down the roster, and with his cap being what it is, he's really not a guy who can be locked in till 2029-30 with a NMC.

What a disappointing player.

PP points the last five years, per Quant Hockey. I’d place Rielly in third tier territory, based on a rough grouping of total points. And, there are some pretty good players in that tier. Obviously, he ain’t Makar, but to say, “what a disappointing player”, come on friend, I’ve read you’re comments over time, imho, that’s not you.