Player Discussion Morgan Rielly

[1specter]

I am going to say this again and again, with Berube here and the very clearly stated desire to play more north-south hockey, getting rid of your best transition d-man and only high end puck mover accomplishes the exact opposite of that. Rielly was at his best when the team played north-south under Babcock. Yes, he lacks a point shot. Yes, he sometimes gets burned defensively and is below average at breaking up odd man rushes. But he is still an immensely valuable player, and plays with a lot of heart and passion, something that fans of this team have complained about our players not having enough of for many years. He played the series ending goal poorly and had a mediocre series overall but more often than not he is one of the team's most reliable players every spring.

Change is needed but let's avoid delusion here please.

 

[1specter]

Or we get a couple of them and build a different and deeper blueline.

And when you say “Montour at best” that guy is coming off a Stanley Cup finals and knocking on the door for a second finals appearance. That’s pretty good.

Montour is great but any respectable Panthers fan will immediately tell you that Forsling is the most important guy on their D, and they're okay with letting Montour walk if he wants Ekblad type money. Pinning all the success of the team's defense on one guy is a weird take anyways as any true Cup contender has multiple good d-men.

Now you're spinning your wheels. Just a minute ago you were worried about Morgan declining because he's hit 30. But all 3 of those guys are same age or older, and yet you're eager to sign them to longer UFA deals?

Exactly lol.

 

[Stephen]

Montour is great but any respectable Panthers fan will immediately tell you that Forsling is the most important guy on their D, and they're okay with letting Montour walk if he wants Ekblad type money. Pinning all the success of the team's defense on one guy is a weird take anyways as any true Cup contender has multiple good d-men.


Exactly lol.

I wouldn’t mind going after Forsling and Montour as a two headed monster on a revamped blueline. But in order to be maximalist you have to move things out that don’t fit anymore.

Edit Nevermind. Forsling re-signed.

 

[Stephen]

If the goal is to add a #1 and push Mo down to #2 or #3 I don't think that's "building around" him. I think that's keeping a useful player while we build the D-core that we really want. I believe that we need a matchup defender (Muzzin replacement, #1) and a PP QB (preferably #3-4 quality) to give us that winning D-core. Our teambuilding philosophy has been to put 40m into four forwards who ultimately don't score, all while neglecting goaltending and defence. A halfway reliable goalie, some dudes who do score for less than 40m, and a bit more money on the blueline are fairly reasonable asks for what Rielly needs to be part of a championship team. We keep losing in the playoffs because we can't score, not because Rielly is a leaky #1. The Bruins scored 3 goals in regulation in games 5-7, pointing the finger at the figurehead of our blueline just isn't convincing.

Not going to buy the argument that 30 year olds are going to suddenly fall apart. Players age differently. Maybe he will, but he might also have another 3-4 playoff PPG runs in him, the only thing you can really do there is look at the trends. I defended Brodie last year as deserving more rope and then this year it was clear it was over. Same with Rielly, this is a player who is valuable enough (and at 30, young enough) that you don't just cut bait after one bad year. One more year at absolute minimum, more depending on how effective he is every year.

Your point that there should be no sacred cows is well taken. Rielly is not untouchable by any means, but he is a valuable piece who should not be on the purge list.

Problem is also cap.

If we are bumping Rielly down to the 3 spot and maybe stripping him of PP duties means you’re likely to be bringing in a high end and expensive Dman at a $7.5 million price tag at a minimum, and then you’re forced to win a money puck dumpster dive like Florida did with Forsling. Or you pair that new stud D with an accessory guy from in house and that guy leap frogs Morgan. Adding a bluechip young ELC Dman is probably beyond reach unless it’s part of a Marner return.

So it’s like the Kadri conundrum where we want to slot Morgan lower but he’s gets more inefficient and expensive the lower he’s slotted.

So I just ask myself if working with Rielly and building above and around him works. And I don’t think it does.

 

[Stephen]

Now you're spinning your wheels. Just a minute ago you were worried about Morgan declining because he's hit 30. But all 3 of those guys are same age or older, and yet you're eager to sign them to longer UFA deals?

You know very well those defensemen aren’t declining in quality of play whereas Morgan has been. Morgan Rielly has 791 games played in the NHL and Montour is a late bloomer with 520. Forsling hasn’t even played real minutes in the NHL up until 2021 and has career totals in the 300s. Morgan isn’t a young 30 in the NHL based on service.

 

[Kurtz]

You know very well those defensemen aren’t declining in quality of play whereas Morgan has been. Morgan Rielly has 791 games played in the NHL and Montour is a late bloomer with 520. Forsling hasn’t even played real minutes in the NHL up until 2021 and has career totals in the 300s. Morgan isn’t a young 30 in the NHL based on service.

I think you have it completely backwards, in particular when it comes to games played.

First of all, go ask Canes fans if Pesce is declining in play, I think you'll be surprised by their answer.

Secondly, there's no indication that Morgan is on the decline. All of his numbers, including minutes per game were up this year compared to last. He just wasn't as good in the playoffs, but that's hardly an indication of long-term decline.

Finally, let's go back to games played. The two factors that most predict precipitous decline are a history (accumulation) of injuries and physical play. Morgan doesn't have a long history of injuries and he's not overly physical, which suggests that he should have plenty of longevity. A smaller, more physical player like Montour is more likely to succumb to early decline than Morgan is.

 

[Kurtz]

Problem is also cap.

If we are bumping Rielly down to the 3 spot and maybe stripping him of PP duties means you’re likely to be bringing in a high end and expensive Dman at a $7.5 million price tag at a minimum, and then you’re forced to win a money puck dumpster dive like Florida did with Forsling. Or you pair that new stud D with an accessory guy from in house and that guy leap frogs Morgan. Adding a bluechip young ELC Dman is probably beyond reach unless it’s part of a Marner return.

So it’s like the Kadri conundrum where we want to slot Morgan lower but he’s gets more inefficient and expensive the lower he’s slotted.

So I just ask myself if working with Rielly and building above and around him works. And I don’t think it does.

You're not going to find a legitimate, stud #1 out there on the free agent market or in trade. We've already seen that you can pair Morgan with a cheap, defensive dman and that will form a very effective pairing that can log big minutes. Why you'd want to move away from that is beyond me. The challenge should be in finding another pairing that is as good as that one at an equal bargain in price.

 

[MajorLeaf]

I think you have it completely backwards, in particular when it comes to games played.

First of all, go ask Canes fans if Pesce is declining in play, I think you'll be surprised by their answer.

Secondly, there's no indication that Morgan is on the decline. All of his numbers, including minutes per game were up this year compared to last. He just wasn't as good in the playoffs, but that's hardly an indication of long-term decline.

Finally, let's go back to games played. The two factors that most predict precipitous decline are a history (accumulation) of injuries and physical play. Morgan doesn't have a long history of injuries and he's not overly physical, which suggests that he should have plenty of longevity. A smaller, more physical player like Montour is more likely to succumb to early decline than Morgan is.

Morgan has played 5 full seasons out of 11 total and even missed games in the shortened COVID season.

While he may not have had major injuries he still missed quite a bit of games throughout his career and now going into his 30’s it becomes a little worrisome.

 

[Stephen]

I think you have it completely backwards, in particular when it comes to games played.

First of all, go ask Canes fans if Pesce is declining in play, I think you'll be surprised by their answer.

Secondly, there's no indication that Morgan is on the decline. All of his numbers, including minutes per game were up this year compared to last. He just wasn't as good in the playoffs, but that's hardly an indication of long-term decline.

Finally, let's go back to games played. The two factors that most predict precipitous decline are a history (accumulation) of injuries and physical play. Morgan doesn't have a long history of injuries and he's not overly physical, which suggests that he should have plenty of longevity. A smaller, more physical player like Montour is more likely to succumb to early decline than Morgan is.

I’m just going to have to agree to disagree here. The guy has been a long time sentimental favorite, career Leaf, Captain Morgan, so maybe it’s an unpopular opinion but he’s become a problem the way he plays the game for me and the push back is numbers. I want a new blueline, new PPQB. Need a new look with new strengths.

All I see is a guy who has been on repeat playoff underachievers. Number one who doesn’t look good on the PP. Not trusted as a PK guy. Leaky defensively. Definitely not a piece I want to keep building with.

 

[Stephen]

You're not going to find a legitimate, stud #1 out there on the free agent market or in trade. We've already seen that you can pair Morgan with a cheap, defensive dman and that will form a very effective pairing that can log big minutes. Why you'd want to move away from that is beyond me. The challenge should be in finding another pairing that is as good as that one at an equal bargain in price.

In the years when the Leafs were waiting for their cup coronation to happen, the Florida Panthers built a number one pair of Forsling and Montour on the dirt cheap via waivers and a marginal trade with Buffalo.

We have the biggest, most expensive front office, and while that doesn’t guarantee quality work, I would hope our pro scouting can be relied on to build a new blueline corps.

Morgan has never worked. The examples of him playing with Schenn and looking strong led to one playoff victory and then a face plant vs Florida. We shouldn’t be duct taping together stuff to keep trying the same thing over and over. The blueline needs to be built thoughtfully and not just dictated by what the leftovers are. It might not be a one summer project.

 

[sunstersun]

Beyond all the great points people have made. His contract is long and expensive for a guy we're trying to demote. On projecting his decline he reminds me of a reverse Tavares. Where Tavares declined fast because the game sped up. Rielly will decline fast because speed is his main attribute. He doesn't have a shot or a cohesive defensive game.

 

[rumman]

Problem is also cap.

If we are bumping Rielly down to the 3 spot and maybe stripping him of PP duties means you’re likely to be bringing in a high end and expensive Dman at a $7.5 million price tag at a minimum, and then you’re forced to win a money puck dumpster dive like Florida did with Forsling. Or you pair that new stud D with an accessory guy from in house and that guy leap frogs Morgan. Adding a bluechip young ELC Dman is probably beyond reach unless it’s part of a Marner return.

So it’s like the Kadri conundrum where we want to slot Morgan lower but he’s gets more inefficient and expensive the lower he’s slotted.

So I just ask myself if working with Rielly and building above and around him works. And I don’t think it does.

He’s not a true first pairing D man, he’s defensively inept, he’s overpaid, and he’s already on the downside of his career. If last season was any indication Mogan’s going to continue to struggle going forward, if there’s a trade to be had and he’s willing to waive the Leafs would be crazy not to move him………

 

[rumman]

I think you have it completely backwards, in particular when it comes to games played.

First of all, go ask Canes fans if Pesce is declining in play, I think you'll be surprised by their answer.

Secondly, there's no indication that Morgan is on the decline. All of his numbers, including minutes per game were up this year compared to last. He just wasn't as good in the playoffs, but that's hardly an indication of long-term decline.

Finally, let's go back to games played. The two factors that most predict precipitous decline are a history (accumulation) of injuries and physical play. Morgan doesn't have a long history of injuries and he's not overly physical, which suggests that he should have plenty of longevity. A smaller, more physical player like Montour is more likely to succumb to early decline than Morgan is.

When the games matter and offensive chances dwindle Rielly’s game is exposed, if you can’t defend and you can’t produce offensively your a liability to the team. He’s just like the core forwards, regular season flash, playoff hockey crash……..

 

[mclaren55]

When the games matter and offensive chances dwindle Rielly’s game is exposed, if you can’t defend and you can’t produce offensively your a liability to the team. He’s just like the core forwards, regular season flash, playoff hockey crash……..

This is the dumbest take in this thread. Well done.

 

[rumman]

This is the dumbest take in this thread. Well done.

Ha ha, tell me what you really think why don’t cha……..

 

[mclaren55]

Ha ha, tell me what you really think why don’t cha……..

I like you, but you’re way off on him sucking in the playoffs. He is literally one of the best playoff performing defensemen since entering the league.

 

[rumman]

I like you, but you’re way off on him sucking in the playoffs. He is literally one of the best playoff performing defensemen since entering the league.

Well we’ll just have to agree to disagree about Morgan……..

 

[Hellcat]

You know very well those defensemen aren’t declining in quality of play whereas Morgan has been. Morgan Rielly has 791 games played in the NHL and Montour is a late bloomer with 520. Forsling hasn’t even played real minutes in the NHL up until 2021 and has career totals in the 300s. Morgan isn’t a young 30 in the NHL based on service.

Didn't Montour miss a significant part of last season recovering from hip surgery? Most players regardless of the name on the back of their sweater start to decline in their early 30's, if they have not already The debate/point/plan of signing a significant upgrade or a significant defender on D is moot unless they can move the contract one or more of the core 5. Which I think is going to be nearly impossible. When ego's, greed and incompetence get in the way, it tends to muck up the master plan. I don't think any of the core 5 will waive their NMC/NTC, if they do waive, I think other GM's will offer discount hotdogs for Kobi steak and I think generally speaking incompetence/delusion runs rampant through most front offices... my bet is this team is constructed very much like last years team, minus Bert and Max, an idiot GM or two will drop their pants and give them $7 mil , $8 mil over a long term ... happens every July 1st, chum in the water and the GM's lose their minds, they cant help themselves but go on a drunken spending binge.

Structurally this team is F-ed until they fix the JT and Marner cap hits, if Tre cant move JT's or Marner's or Morgan's contract, it's better if Tre just takes a step back this year and starts his true build after next season. Dont build shit walls this year on a shit foundation, that could be better fixed after next season. It;s been a cycle of packing crap on crap for 10 years... and thinking you are building a golden castle

 

[HamiltonNHL]

It;s been a cycle of packing crap on crap for 10 years...

Leafs First round draft picks since Nylander (2014), Marner (2015), Matthews (2016)

Leafs draft position and player (in first round) 2011 - 22th 2012 - 5th 2013 - 21th 2014 - 8th Nylander 2015 - 4th Marner 2016 - 1st Matthews 2017 - 17th Liljegren 2018 - 29th Sandin (Dubas traded down) 2019 - none 2020 - 15th Amirov 2021 - none 2022 - none 2023 - 28th Cowan ..2024 - 23rd ...

forums.hfboards.com

Signed JT and then pretended we had a cup team.

So sad.

Shanny did launch the careers of Dubas and Keefe. So he did accomplish that. They had 1/2 a decade to learn the NHL. Yes, both failed miserably as newbies at their position. But they are better now.

The idea of overpaying 4 players was stupid from the get go.

 

[Trapper]

Leafs First round draft picks since Nylander (2014), Marner (2015), Matthews (2016)

Leafs draft position and player (in first round) 2011 - 22th 2012 - 5th 2013 - 21th 2014 - 8th Nylander 2015 - 4th Marner 2016 - 1st Matthews 2017 - 17th Liljegren 2018 - 29th Sandin (Dubas traded down) 2019 - none 2020 - 15th Amirov 2021 - none 2022 - none 2023 - 28th Cowan ..2024 - 23rd ...

forums.hfboards.com

Signed JT and then pretended we had a cup team.

So sad.

Shanny did launch the careers of Dubas and Keefe. So he did accomplish that. They had 1/2 a decade to learn the NHL. Yes, both failed miserably as newbies at their position. But they are better now.

The idea of overpaying 4 players was stupid from the get go.

You missed a step. Then paid players like they were also 3x Cup champs.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

You missed a step. Then paid players like they were also 3x Cup champs.

This .org is a colossal hockey failure. Whoever hired Shanahan started the cascade of loserness.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

This .org is a colossal hockey failure. Whoever hired Shanahan started the cascade of loserness.

Yep it comes right back to Bettman selling a story to Larry .. da reality Bettman was trying to find a spot to offload Shanny .. and then Shanny trying to find a PP/excel guy who could make his board presentations presentable .. Shanny kinda weak on da technology side of things .. da hiring of a TO kid with Cup wins coming back home probably sounded good to Larry .. it always starts at da top .. what we have now is a direct function of who is on top .. and signing 4 forwards to 50% of CAP was an insane idear no matter who da 4 forwards are .. 4 forwards with NO D and NO G will never ever ever ever win a Cup .. Cups are won on da backend .. sure there are a few offensive teams who have won .. sometimes it occurs but it is RARE .. da Oilers have a chance this year with a below average D .. although they do have a tender who is still young but quite good in clutch and an up and coming D in Bouch who will become an elite #1 in short order

 

[Tak7]

This .org is a colossal hockey failure. Whoever hired Shanahan started the cascade of loserness.

When they eventually write the obituary for this era of Leafs hockey, a significant chunk of space should be dedicated to Brendan Shanahan managing this organization in a manner that didn't mimic his playing career in any way, shape, or form.

 

[nuck]

When they eventually write the obituary for this era of Leafs hockey, a significant chunk of space should be dedicated to Brendan Shanahan managing this organization in a manner that didn't mimic his playing career in any way, shape, or form.

Wasn't that really mostly the Kyle thing? Not to say BS didn't drink Kool aide but imagine if he had just not moved Kyle in year one. No JT, tamer contracts (although Willie might have been down the road) and even if Lou is gone the next year those 4 deals would not have become the millstone that has weighed down the club since 2018. Neither Lou nor his replacement would have been able to dig the hole that Dubas put them in in exchange for 1 series win. Even if Kyle comes in a year later they are still miles ahead.

 

[Tak7]

Wasn't that really mostly the Kyle thing? Not to say BS didn't drink Kool aide but imagine if he had just not moved Kyle in year one. No JT, tamer contracts (although Willie might have been down the road) and even if Lou is gone the next year those 4 deals would not have become the millstone that has weighed down the club since 2018. Neither Lou nor his replacement would have been able to dig the hole that Dubas put them in in exchange for 1 series win. Even if Kyle comes in a year later they are still miles ahead.

It was Shanahan's decision to move Dubas into the GM's seat - he balked once the Avalanche started pursuing him.

And Shanahan is ultimately the one that signs off on these deals - big picture, the buck stops with him.