Morgan Rielly

[Fogelhund]

I get where you are coming from on your analysis but I am totally not at all concerned about Dermy playing da right side. I know he can.
What is concerning to me is we spent 7 years grooming Rielly after drafting him. He is now in his prime years for next 5 years. Whether people like it or not he is a key leader on our team. He was my choice for Captain too even though I have watched JT since he was a little guy, a great Sen and Marlie. But we have 2 guys in Rielly and Muzzy who are now vet leaders. That is all we have. We have to add to that not reduce/maintain. Rielly would not be traded on my team. and I would not trade our 3 kid defenders either as they are our future. My guess is he is going to surprise everyone next season as his game will be much more complete. Do we need to help him with a defensive defender like Hamonic yes. Great teams are built not traded for.

I understand where you are coming from as well... I'm not as confident that Dermott can play the right side effectively, but they just might try it. I think we'd agree, he isn't going to be the RHD partner for Rielly though.

I'd prefer to pick up a complimentary player for Rielly, but they are few and far between, and if we can't sign one of those guys, we need a contingency plan. What is there, Tanev, and Hamonic? That could effectively be a partner for Rielly? Vancouver would be dumb to let Tanev go, given his success with Hughes, and Hamonic wanted to play out west, to be closer to family. I think he takes a discount to play with a Western club. If our options aren't available through a signing... then what?

Dermott + Johnsson isn't going to move the needle for many teams, that have what we really need. I mean, Weegar, Manson... pick a few other names Weegar is cheap for Florida, and they are looking to cut salary, so the odds they move him are slim. Manson is unlikely to be available, and if he was, it's a rebuild move, and they'd be looking more at Dermott + Robertson + for example. (which we wouldn't like) (really, they'd be looking at first this year if anything)

The rational behind St. Louis? St. Louis is likely to resign Pietrangelo... and only have Gunnarsson signed for next year on the Left side. Dunn is a RFA, so they should get him signed... but they'd end up with very little on the Left, and $21 million on the right side... Sure, Parayko and Pietrangelo can play together at times... but maybe they think making a positional change makes sense. Noting, Parayko is the same age as Rielly, is signed for the same term, and only $500k more. So, he's entering the same price as Rielly, but provides what we are missing....

We agree, that we'd prefer to sign a complimentary guy for Morgan... but I think the odds are slim, especially if the cap doesn't move, or drops. There just isn't going to be many options, and Dubas needs to consider contingency plans, in case plan A doesn't work out. Your method is a plan A... mine is a plan B.

 

[Fogelhund]

I see it more as Pietrangelo>>>Rielly

I can't argue with that at all... and wasn't really trying to discuss Pietrangelo's value... just the comparison that Johnsson + Dermott is equal to a Rielly in value.

I mean, I "think" Dermott might get to second pairing one day, he's shown flashes that maybe he's capable... but then another team would say... he's had the sixth most minutes of any D on your team....
and Johnsson has had the 9th most last year, and 7th most this year, and hasn't played a full season without injury.

If someone offered us a D man, who they promised might be a second pairing, but currently showed third pairing minutes, and an oft injured third line player for Rielly in a trade, we'd laugh at them.

 

[Stamkos4life]

This board in a nutshell, asinine take after asinine take and then we pretend they never occurred...

















Unbelievable the amount of gaslighting that goes on here. This is taken from the first two pages of 17 page thread from earlier this year, there's another from 2018 I didn't touch.

Lol relax and get off your high horse.

We are heavily front loaded. We have 4 forwards making over 40 million.

Matthews for Jones+ would make us a much more balanced team.

We allowed the 5th most goals this year while scoring the 3rd most. That is not a recipe for success.

But please go on about all the "gaslighting".

 

[Al14]

Lol relax and get off your high horse.

We are heavily front loaded. We have 4 forwards making over 40 million.

Matthews for Jones+ would make us a much more balanced team.

We allowed the 5th most goals this year while scoring the 3rd most. That is not a recipe for success.

But please go on about all the "gaslighting".

Well said. Thank you.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Lol relax and get off your high horse.

We are heavily front loaded. We have 4 forwards making over 40 million.

Matthews for Jones+ would make us a much more balanced team.

We allowed the 5th most goals this year while scoring the 3rd most. That is not a recipe for success.

But please go on about all the "gaslighting".

AGAIN...the poster I was replying to suggested Matthews trade talk never happened...THAT was the gaslighting. It wasn't a majority but clearly a vocal minority some who still believe it now I guess.

By the way, this is the second straight post you've capped against me with a nonsensical insult...how am I on my high horse?

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Well said. Thank you.

Uhuh, I'm not sure what you guys aren't getting....

I write a throwaway line about how people wanted to trade Matthews
Poster 1: that never happened
Me: yes it did here are the examples

Everyone I quoted: defends their original position which is clearly not the point. Although if it was I'd remind you that you had the worst take, probably one of the worst ever.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Mirtle and Siegel: Can the Leafs find a way to keep Hyman, Andersen and Rielly? - The Athletic

Mirtle: For me, it comes down to price. The Leafs are going to have to be prudent with all of their decisions after deciding to pay their young core as much as they did; they can’t afford to whiff on a Rielly contract by going too high.

And high-end, soon-to-be UFA defencemen around the league have been getting paid big time of late, with 10 now making at least $8 million, including recent contracts for John Carlson, Alex Pietrangelo and Roman Josi.

Rielly is probably just outside the lower part of that tier. But with their other commitments and a flat cap, I’m not sure the Leafs can afford a number that starts with an eight.

Now, if you can get creative, and go long term and get the cap hit closer to $7 million, that makes a lot of sense. Maybe you’d have to move one of the older defencemen to punch a hole for a Sandin and open up space, but as outlined here, the math works.

Two years from now, it may be clear that Brodie or Muzzin is in decline and you’ll be ready to move on from one. In a best-case scenario, you get an asset for one of them, give Rielly a raise, and there’s not a big drop off on top-four D group.

Hard to believe we’re talking about a contract for a 28-year-old Morgan Rielly — doesn’t feel that long ago he was a little kid at the draft in Pittsburgh.

Or maybe I’m just getting old.

........................

Mirtle: The deal with the devil you always make with soon-to-be UFAs is the term. Let’s put it this way: Would you rather pay Rielly four years at nearly $9 million or seven years at $7 million, in a flat-cap environment with the Leafs roster constraints?

For the player, there has to be a major financial incentive to not go the distance on the term. Even in my examples, Rielly would potentially be leaving a lot on the table with a shorter deal: $36 million versus $49 million. And who knows if you can get another significant contract in your 30s to bridge that gap.

He’s not going to accept 4×7 or whatever, not when someone will give him the term at that cap hit in free agency.

For the Leafs, it’s probably worth gambling on the term and then worrying about the consequences in 2027 or whatever. Maybe that’s a buyout or a retained salary trade or putting him on LTIR?

But there are ways to deal with a declining player that make that risk worth taking. The cap should be higher, too. And who knows what your contention window looks like then anyway.

 

[KyleDubasBoyGeniua]

I'd trade Morgan, and it's not because I don't like him, or because he's gone down hill. He is who is, an excellent puck moving and offensive D man, who isn't great defensively. The reason I'd move him, is we'd still have a left side of Muzzin, Dermott and Sandin... I'd only move him, for a quality RHD, who could play first pairing... like a Parayko for example... I love Mo, thought he should have been the captain, but if we can improve our overall team.... I'd do it.[/QUOTE

Leaf fans always wanting to trade our elite talent LOL. Rielly is a legit #1 D and can be a Norris finalist this year with Brodie.

 

[Fogelhund]

Leaf fans always wanting to trade our elite talent LOL. Rielly is a legit #1 D and can be a Norris finalist this year with Brodie.

Leaf fans, always viewing our players as untouchable, and untradeable, and over valuing what elite is. LOL

Look, at the end of the day, it's about the team, and winning. There isn't a player on the team, or person in the organization, I wouldn't move, if it meant improving the team. (If it improved the team)

There is also a fundamental difference between WANTING to do something, and ACCEPTING if it happened, because it made the team better overall. Please also note, this was a discussion pre-Free Agency, pre-Brodie/Bogo etc... So, some context is necessary.

 

[Mickey Marner]

7×7 would be a discount. I think he ends closer to 8×8.

Contract comparables for Rielly, who will be 27 when he's eligible for an extension, buying up only UFA years.

Name	Age	AAV	Length	Cap%
OEL	26	8.25	8	10.38
Hedman	25	7.875	8	10.79
Carlson	28	8	8	10.06
Trouba	25	8	7	9.82
Letang	26	7.25	8	11.28
Fowler	25	6.5	8	8.67

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only Letang had been a Norris finalist (3rd), Carlson had the next best (5th) finish at the time of the signings. All buy UFA years exclusively, except Trouba, who bought one RFA year.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

7×7 would be a discount. I think he ends closer to 8×8.

Contract comparables for Rielly, who will be 27 when he's eligible for an extension, buying up only UFA years.

Name	Age	AAV	Length	Cap%
OEL	26	8.25	8	10.38
Hedman	25	7.875	8	10.79
Carlson	28	8	8	10.06
Trouba	25	8	7	9.82
Letang	26	7.25	8	11.28
Fowler	25	6.5	8	8.67

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only Letang had been a Norris finalist (3rd), Carlson had the next best (5th) finish at the time of the signings. All buy UFA years exclusively, except Trouba, who bought one RFA year.

Great analysis there ... I'd sign him somewhere between 7 and 8M long term .. he is our draft pick ... he bleeds blue ... he will put up good points on PP1 again ... and he is getting better over time in his own end ... he will never be solid in his own end but he can skate it out like no other ... with big fast nasty great checking partner he can really excel ... i have some doubt whether Brodie is that right FIT guy but hoping for best ... but if it does not work out Brodie will be a great FIT with Muzzy as a shut down vet pair who can close games for us ... but overall our defense is better with Brodie and Bogo then last years motley crew

 

[The CyNick]

Reilly should be moved on from. Should have happened a couple years ago.

Now Leafs will either overpay him and have to lose more depth or lose him for no return.

 

[Fogelhund]

Great analysis there ... I'd sign him somewhere between 7 and 8M long term .. he is our draft pick ... he bleeds blue ... he will put up good points on PP1 again ... and he is getting better over time in his own end ... he will never be solid in his own end but he can skate it out like no other ... with big fast nasty great checking partner he can really excel ... i have some doubt whether Brodie is that right FIT guy but hoping for best ... but if it does not work out Brodie will be a great FIT with Muzzy as a shut down vet pair who can close games for us ... but overall our defense is better with Brodie and Bogo then last years motley crew

I believe that you have a lot of faith in Dermott... though I'm not sure where he'd fit now, with Brodie... I think Josh Manson would make a great partner for Rielly, though not exactly easy to get him away from the Ducks... a top four of Rielly, Manson, Muzzin, Brodie would be fantastic..

 

[KyleDubasBoyGeniua]

Reilly should be moved on from. Should have happened a couple years ago.

Now Leafs will either overpay him and have to lose more depth or lose him for no return.

He's a 3rd pair D according to you...a 3rd pair D that had 72 points and was 5th in Norris voting 2 years ago with Ron Hainsey chained to him the entire year.

With Brodie he can be a Norris finalist this year.

 

[KyleDubasBoyGeniua]

Leaf fans, always viewing our players as untouchable, and untradeable, and over valuing what elite is. LOL

Look, at the end of the day, it's about the team, and winning. There isn't a player on the team, or person in the organization, I wouldn't move, if it meant improving the team. (If it improved the team)

There is also a fundamental difference between WANTING to do something, and ACCEPTING if it happened, because it made the team better overall. Please also note, this was a discussion pre-Free Agency, pre-Brodie/Bogo etc... So, some context is necessary.

All I see is trade Marner, Nylander, Matthews ETC. It's a joke. And Rielly is vastly undeerrated if aything.

 

[Fogelhund]

All I see is trade Marner, Nylander, Matthews ETC. It's a joke. And Rielly is vastly undeerrated if aything.

All you see is trade Matthews? Really.. you see suggestions for trading Matthews?

 

[KyleDubasBoyGeniua]

All you see is trade Matthews? Really.. you see suggestions for trading Matthews?

Yes I have.

 

[TMLAM34]

You'd be stupid to trade Matthews or Rielly. 8x8 for Rielly seems fair for both sides.

 

[The CyNick]

He's a 3rd pair D according to you...a 3rd pair D that had 72 points and was 5th in Norris voting 2 years ago with Ron Hainsey chained to him the entire year.

With Brodie he can be a Norris finalist this year.

He won't be. Hainsey is a better fit for Reilly than Brodie. Brodie is a buttercup. He's not going to fill in physically to make up for Reilly's softness. Brodie wil be better than Hainsey at point production, but the net benefit will be worse.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I believe that you have a lot of faith in Dermott... though I'm not sure where he'd fit now, with Brodie... I think Josh Manson would make a great partner for Rielly, though not exactly easy to get him away from the Ducks... a top four of Rielly, Manson, Muzzin, Brodie would be fantastic..

Dermy is not ready yet ... he is 2-4 years away from top pair level ... we will screw him over if we try to make it work ... he is best with Bogo on 3rd pair ... he will learn so much this year ... and moving up to play with Muzzy could help too on occasion ... Josh would be an amazing partner for Rielly ... maybe Ducks would take our 1st next year, which is nothing anywho, and Kerfoot for him ... then we got a top end top 4 in league really fast with backups who could fill in ... like it

 

[TMLAM34]

There's two defenceman who I think would be a great fit next to Morgan Rielly, Philippe Myers or Erik Cernak.

 

[AvroArrow]

Reilly should be moved on from. Should have happened a couple years ago.

Now Leafs will either overpay him and have to lose more depth or lose him for no return.

lol what ? Let's move on from our best home grown D-man ? No thanks.

 

[BackPassChampions]

Reilly should be moved on from. Should have happened a couple years ago.

Now Leafs will either overpay him and have to lose more depth or lose him for no return.

And who is replacing him?

No way Leafs move from Reilly. He is a huge part of this team.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Reilly should be moved on from. Should have happened a couple years ago.

Now Leafs will either overpay him and have to lose more depth or lose him for no return.

I disagree, signing Rielly should be a priority

 

[Byron Bitz]

There's two defenceman who I think would be a great fit next to Morgan Rielly, Philippe Myers or Erik Cernak.

I think Brodie will be a better fit with Rielly than those guys